PS3 Launch Outsells Xbox 360 Launch?*

[Tap In]

I agree. Paralleling the PS3 vs. Wii to Kia vs. Enzo is wrong on so many levels.

"Let me think do I want a Kia or a Enzo?". You are looking at a thought that most likely has never happened. "Let me think do I want a Wii or Ps3". Its reasonable to believe that this thought has occurred and will occur pretty regularly in the future.

Both the PS3 and Wii are destined to be mainstream products. While the Enzo will barely budged off that 1 million mark and even with 500,000 miles and 10 yrs of ownership will never reach the Kia price level.

you're reading Waaay too much into the cars used instead of focusing on the vessel/fuel analogy and applying it to games in the point Acert was countering in the quote above him.

the vessel (car/lamp) is the console, the fuel is the games and the game devs are the ones who decide how much fuel (games) to make available for each system based on which will have the most overall consumption. So, it matters not how much $ volume each set of console sales generated if the smaller $ volume will create a higher demand for fuel (games), where almost ALL of the money is made in this industry.

 

[dobwal]

That's a bit contraddicting. The second part of your statement is not necessarily a cause of the first. To be clearer, price is king only within a certain range. Within that range (and personally i think Sony is a bit outside that range now), price is not king at all, as was shown when PS2 at one point kept being more expensive than both Xbox and GC, but kept selling many times more.

So, price is king... sometimes.

I think "value" is king and value isn't always static amongst consoles at any one price point. One person might be willing to spend $600.00 for the PS3 but will never buy a Wii regardless of price. But you might have another person who is willing to buy the 360 at $400.00 but won't consider a PS3 even at a $200 price point. Futhermore, you might have a person who will buy the first console that hits $150.00. It all depends how much an individual values any one of the consoles that determines what console is bought and at what price point.

Value accounts for demand at any given price point for any given console.

 

[Tap In]

Or, maybe the Wii's success can be attributed to a single game. Zelda.
....

I agree that software is a big factor. see clarification (as prompted by L-B) below my original post. :smile:


but if that software prompts a large install base which prompts more software development, then that install base will/should continue to gobble up games; the FUEL of the industry. which will increase the install base....etc

 

[Tap In]

Of course this discussion is really moot, as PS3 sold every unit they made, so all this talk about pricepoints is silly. They could've been priced at $99, or $1000 and would've probably sold the exact same amount of units.

exactly.... right NOW it's moot but looking ahead for long term when the demand at the current price dwindles (10 million?), this discussion matters again.

 

[scooby_dooby]

calcification (as prompted by L-B)

LOL

Calcification:

A process that impregnates something with calcium (or calcium salts)

 

[Tap In]

LOL

Calcification:

A process that impregnates something with calcium (or calcium salts)

HaHa!!! fixed.... thx


spell check without looking for the win!

 

[dobwal]

you're reading Waaay too much into the cars used instead of focusing on the vessel/fuel analogy and applying it to games in the point Acert was countering in the quote above him.

the vessel (car/lamp) is the console, the fuel is the games and the game devs are the ones who decide how much fuel (games) to make available for each system based on which will have the most overall consumption. So, it matters not how much $ volume each set of console sales generated if the smaller $ volume will create a higher demand for fuel (games), where almost ALL of the money is made in this industry.

The Kia will be used as commuter cars for the majority of its owners. That means fuel producer can depend on a steady demand from Kia owners since they most likely be using everyday to go to work. The Enzo is an exotic car made for rich enthusiasts. Not only Enzo are sold at way smaller numbers but fuel consumption is inconsistent and at best negiligible in comparsion to fuel consumption of all the Kias being used everyday.

If you want to use a car to fuel analogy pick a set of vehicles that at least compete on some level with each other and have comparable production numbers.

 

[Tap In]

The Kia will be used as commuter cars for the majority of its owners. That means fuel producer can depend on a steady demand from Kia owners since they most likely be using everyday to go to work. The Enzo is an exotic car made for rich enthusiasts. Not only Enzo are sold at way smaller numbers but fuel consumption is inconsistent and at best negiligible in comparsion to fuel consumption of all the Kias being used everyday.

If you want to use a car to fuel analogy pick a set of vehicles that at least compete on some level with each other and have comparable production numbers.

fair enough point.

the vessel/fuel analogy works though, just not with brand name cars maybe?

 

[Powderkeg]

I agree that software is a big factor. see clarification (as prompted by L-B) below my original post. :smile:


but if that software prompts a large install base which prompts more software development, then that install base will/should continue to gobble up games; the FUEL of the industry. which will increase the install base....etc

That's a big IF when it comes to Nintendo. It hasn't happened on their previous 2 systems.

 

[Tap In]

That's a big IF when it comes to Nintendo. It hasn't happened on their previous 2 systems.

agreed but this time Nintendo has included something in their package besides software.

they have the features (not found in any other system... not even 6axis).... they have the online services ....and it's not hard to dredge up old mind share for Nintendo since most gamers over 20 have played a Nintendo system with fond memories.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I agree with PK that it will still be an uphill battle for 3rd party dev's on Wii. And if they don't get great 3rd party support, it will suffer the same fate as the previous Nintendo consoles.

 

[Natoma]

*cough*

 

[dobwal]

fair enough point.

the vessel/fuel analogy works though, just not with brand name cars maybe?

I agree vehicle/fuel works, just that using cars from opposite extremes clouded the analogy.

 

[scooby_dooby]

*cough*

I've observed many of the same things, it's not hardcore Nintendo fans that are all buying Wii, most of the people I know who have Wii's or want one, are all girls, or guys who are partially buying it for their GF's.

So, to say that it's all hardcore Zelda fans is definately off the mark. That's probably why the Wii sales have been so damned impressive, you have the hardcore guys, in addition you have the ultra-casual gamers jumping on too, at launch, which almost never happens.

With that said, it doesn't change the situtation all that much, as it will still struggle once the novelty wears off unless there's a strong stream of innovative 3rd party titles.

Personally, I have alot of reservations about how many games these casual gamers will purchase in a year or two, once the novelty of the system has worn off. I think it might backfire to have a userbase that consists too heavily of casual gamers, as they end up only buying 1 or 2 games a year if that.

 

[Natoma]

I've observed many of the same things, it's not hardcore Nintendo fans that are all buying Wii, most of the people I know who have Wii's or want one, are all girls, or guys who are partially buying it for their GF's.

So, to say that it's all hardcore Zelda fans is definately off the mark. That's probably why the Wii sales have been so damned impressive, you have the hardcore guys, in addition you have the ultra-casual gamers jumping on too, at launch, which almost never happens.

With that said, it doesn't change the situtation all that much, as it will still struggle once the novelty wears off unless there's a strong stream of innovative 3rd party titles.

Personally, I have alot of reservations about how many games these casual gamers will purchase in a year or two, once the novelty of the system has worn off. I think it might backfire to have a userbase that consists too heavily of casual gamers, as they end up only buying 1 or 2 games a year if that.

Yea I had some of the same thoughts. But as I mentioned in my linked comments at the bottom of the post just above, the DS success/model changed my opinion on that. I think if the DS had not succeeded, the Wii would be dead in the water right now, even if it was selling like gangbusters.

The DS, imo, gives developers a blueprint for what a system like Wii is capable of doing in the marketplace.

You see it when, for example, Square-Enix decides to publish DQ9 on the DS as the primary system, not as a port of the console version.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Add in Zelda to that mix and I think you have one of the best launch lineups for a console, ever.

Hmm, if you're under 15 years old, or a girl, sure. But otherwise no. Excite truck? Trauma Center? Wii Sport, Monkey Ball, these games don't appeal to the majority of the gaming market which is a 20-30 year old male.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Yea I had some of the same thoughts. But as I mentioned in my linked comments at the bottom of the post just above, the DS success/model changed my opinion on that. I think if the DS had not succeeded, the Wii would be dead in the water right now, even if it was selling like gangbusters.

The DS, imo, gives developers a blueprint for what a system like Wii is capable of doing in the marketplace.

You see it when, for example, Square-Enix decides to publish DQ9 on the DS as the primary system, not as a port of the console version.

Well there's no doubt they are applying the 'DS model' to the console space, it will be interesting to see how it works out. In my opinion they are very different spaces, and what worked in one it may may not work as well, or it may.

For example, differences in IQ are much less important on a 4" screen, then they are on the 36"+ Tv's that everyone has nowadays.

 

[Natoma]

Hmm, if you're under 15 years old, or a girl, sure. But otherwise no. Excite truck? Trauma Center? Wii Sport, Monkey Ball, these games don't appeal to the majority of the gaming market which is a 20-30 year old male.

The sales, and the demographics of my friends (mostly male, mostly 25-35) say otherwise, but it's ok. :smile:

 

[scooby_dooby]

The sales, and the demographics of my friends (mostly male, mostly 25-35) say otherwise, but it's ok. :smile:

Really? Most of my friends are into the typical 'guy' genres, shooters, racers, sports games and sandbox games like GTA.

Anyways, I posted this in the PS3 sales thread, but it applies here as well, Arstechnica took a look around and demand for PS3 seems to be drying up in a huge way:

It appears PS3 supply is already beginning to outstrip demand:

With the 2006 holiday season firmly behind us, all "next-gen" consoles are out of the gate and running. Sony has announced that the company has shipped 1 million PlayStation 3 consoles and says that they are on track for their European launch in March. Now that the mad holiday rush is over, however, Sony's challenges are just now mounting.

Without a doubt, the PS3 launch was something to behold: news stories of insanely long lines, fatal shootings and occasional muggings made it clear that in the early days, getting a PS3 was darn near impossible. Many saw the PS3 as pure eBay gold. Reality has set in, however. Suddenly PS3 speculators can't unload their units on eBay for a profit. Gaming blogs have started joking that the PS3 excels at collecting dust on shelves. Has demand really died down that quickly? We decided to find out by checking stores in the Cincinnati and Boston metropolitan regions.

The results are unambiguous: the PlayStation 3 is in stock, almost everywhere. In Cincinnati, there were PS3s at multiple Wal-Marts, GameStops, and Circuit City stores. The numbers went from only one system at the first Wal-Mart store to 15 at the second; everyone else seemed to have under ten units, mixed between the 20GB and 60GB models. If you want to buy a PS3, it's simply a matter of going to the right store or ordering from Best Buy or Circuit City online, both of which have them in stock, ready to ship. The same can be said for the Xbox 360, which is also available everywhere we checked. The Wii, on the other hand, has been sold out everywhere, with vague rumors of another shipment in the next few days.

One retailer spoke to me on condition of anonymity, and broke down his version of the situation. "It's not that we've gotten more PS3s than Wiis, it's just that no one wants them. We've seen a few returned. We have four in the store right now," he said. He also told of people coming in with multiple systems and no receipts, looking for cash back after their eBay listings failed to gather attention. "If you told me that I would have PS3s to sell and that I won't be able to get enough Wiis back in October, I would have laughed at you," he went on. He also detailed a memo from a regional vice president telling managers to put up a hand-written note telling customers that the PS3 is in stock.

Without any clear numbers outside of the 1 million shipped in North America, it's hard to say if demand for the PS3 is cooling or if supply is simply catching up. Recall that it wasn't until spring was nearly here last year that Microsoft was able to meet the initial demand.

It's not the case that the PS3 isn't selling well, however. One store manager revealed that they have sold 24 of 28 launch units, and most others who would talk to us told similar tales. Sales are strong; they're simply not as strong as many expected and a few even hoped.

The rush for the PS3 is over, and now it's up to Sony to get the games and updates needed to put the PS3 back in the minds of gamers to move this inventory. This is a marathon, not a sprint, but the widespread availability has to be troubling to Sony. When the "sold out" stories quickly become "inventory stacked to the ceiling a month later" stories, shareholders may become somewhat unsettled by how strong the competition has become.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070108-8574.html

 

[Natoma]

Well there's no doubt they are applying the 'DS model' to the console space, it will be interesting to see how it works out. In my opinion they are very different spaces, and what worked in one it may may not work as well, or it may.

For example, differences in IQ are much less important on a 4" screen, then they are on the 36"+ Tv's that everyone has nowadays.

I agree. And granted, I'm not saying the Wii is going to rule all. I'm as shocked by its success as anyone else honestly. Even more shocked actually at the DS. It's just nuts. But that's what the market seems to be.

But there is one other point to bring up as well. The 360 and PS3 graphics don't look nearly as jawdropping insane without HDTV. And a vast minority of homes have it at this point.

And then there's price. I can easily afford a $600 console, but I have no desire to purchase one at that price. Particularly when I don't have a HDTV yet. I wouldn't consider myself a hardcore gamer by any stretch. I'm probably as close to a casual gamer that these forums would get, for someone who hangs out in forums like these.