MS: 10 million 360s SHIPPED already?

[Rangers]

I'd expect the X360 between 1 and 1.5 million. The others depend on the supply... 300-400K PS3 at most; Wii perhaps a million if they can deliver them in time.

Yep.

Now, about the 10m figure, it's tough to reach. Here are some 360 WW sales assumptions as of Nov 31.
Figuring Canada~10% of USA, Japan sales from Media Create, EU sales as ~40% of NA sales (because ms ships about 40% as many units to Europe as NA (USA+Canada) according to quarterly financials IIRC, maybe a bit more but we'll say 40%, and assume sales track accordingly). Australia comes from newspaper articles.


USA NPD=3.4m
Canada=~300k
Australia=100k
Japan=200k
EU=1.5m
Rest of world=???~300k?

Total Nov 31=5.8

Now Dec 31 guesses for 360 lifetime hardware, all based on assumed 1.2m USA NPD sales in Dec:

USA NPD=4.6m
Canada=400k
Australia=200k
Japan=200k
EU=2m
Rest of World=300k?

=7.7m

Can you get 10m shipped from 7.7m sold? It doesn't seem to me the channel demands 2.3m for the spring doldrums.

Nonetheless, some of these guesses could be a little low. USA Dec NPD could be higher (or lower) than 1.2, EU sales are only the broadest of estimates, etc. Then, when you dont know if ms counts demo units and everything else in the total, perhaps NPD undercounts...one thing I'm confident of, ms WILL come out with a statement saying they sold 10m. They'll get there even if they have to use shady accounting or round up.
________
Paxil help

 

[Sis]

I think he is poking fun at, or confused by, the wording in the quote



it almost sounds like they are shipping them one at a time

Well, but sure; I mean, how do you put your pants on but one leg at a time, unless you want to try jumping into them, and that's just silly and causes you to fall down.

 

[Malibu]

Yeah, and I believe NPD reports only about ~80% of sales. Doesn't count some major outlets.

edit: I could be wrong on that figure, my memory = meh

They factor them in. (estimate)

 

[Tap In]

pretty sure the November NPD data is only through the 25th of the month and allegedly there were quite a few 100,000 days "around" Thanksgiving so they may be higher (and of course Wal Mart is not included)

I'm guessing there will be a LOT of units going off the shelf in December and 10 mil SOLD by early January is not that hard of a concept to grasp.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Yep.

Now, about the 10m figure, it's tough to reach. Here are some 360 WW sales assumptions as of Nov 31.
Figuring Canada~10% of USA, Japan sales from Media Create, EU sales as ~40% of NA sales (because ms ships about 40% as many units to Europe as NA (USA+Canada) according to quarterly financials IIRC, maybe a bit more but we'll say 40%, and assume sales track accordingly). Australia comes from newspaper articles.


USA NPD=3.4m
Canada=~300k
Australia=100k
Japan=200k
EU=1.5m
Rest of world=???~300k?

Total Nov 31=5.8

Now Dec 31 guesses for 360 lifetime hardware, all based on assumed 1.2m USA NPD sales in Dec:

USA NPD=4.6m
Canada=400k
Australia=200k
Japan=200k
EU=2m
Rest of World=300k?

=7.7m

Can you get 10m shipped from 7.7m sold? It doesn't seem to me the channel demands 2.3m for the spring doldrums.

Nonetheless, some of these guesses could be a little low. USA Dec NPD could be higher (or lower) than 1.2, EU sales are only the broadest of estimates, etc. Then, when you dont know if ms counts demo units and everything else in the total, perhaps NPD undercounts...one thing I'm confident of, ms WILL come out with a statement saying they sold 10m. They'll get there even if they have to use shady accounting or round up.

You're extrapolating almost everything from the NPD data which is lower than the actual units sold.

If we assuume 4.6 NPD for USA, then corrected (add 25%) that's around 5.8 million, that skews your numbers quite a bit. Assume 40% for EU, 2.3mil, 600k for Canada, 200k for JPN, you're at 8.8million sold through.

 

[Tap In]

They factor them in. (estimate)

it's still more accurate (looking at PS2 data over the years) to divide the NPD data by .8 to get a more accurate figure.


7.7mil/ .8= 9.625 million.

 

[Sis]

pretty sure the November NPD data is only through the 25th of the month and allegedly there were quite a few 100,000 days "around" Thanksgiving so they may be higher (and of course Wal Mart is not included)

I'm guessing there will be a LOT of units going off the shelf in December and 10 mil SOLD by early January is not that hard of a concept to grasp.

Ah, that's critical information! I posted in another thread my concern about those numbers. If indeed it ended on the 25th, then we are missing a large chunk of data.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Now, about the 10m figure, it's tough to reach. Here are some 360 WW sales assumptions as of Nov 31.

USA NPD=3.4m
Canada=~300k
Australia=100k
Japan=200k
EU=1.5m
Rest of world=???~300k?

Total Nov 31=5.8

NDP doesn't count all US sales. I'd say it actually looks more like this:

USA actual = 125% of NDP = 4.25M
Canada = 400K
Australia = 100K
Japan = 200K
EU = 1.86M
Rest of world = 300K

Total: 7.11M

MS has recently announced that they've passed 6 million at the end of October, and it's reasonable to assume that actual total sales for November are around 1 million (NDP reports 512K, and applying your formula for Canada and EU gets us near 1M).

 

[Laa-Yosh]

it's still more accurate (looking at PS2 data over the years) to divide the NPD data by .8 to get a more accurate figure.

See my post in the PS3 thread; NDP reports 476K for Wii, whereas Nintendo talks about 600K. Almost exactly the .8 number

 

[Rangers]

pretty sure the November NPD data is only through the 25th of the month and allegedly there were quite a few 100,000 days "around" Thanksgiving so they may be higher (and of course Wal Mart is not included)

I am almost positive Wal Mart is estimated by NPD. If they weren't the numbers would be relatively useless as I imagne Wal Mart is a good what, 25% of sales?

NPD only has direct access to around 60% of the sales IIRC. They ESTIMATE and or extrapolate the rest.

NDP doesn't count all US sales. I'd say it actually looks more like this:

As far as I know, NPD is an attempt to estimate every last sale in the US. Again, I dont know why they wouldn't. As it's been argued, if they were so consistently off by 20%, they would just multiply by 1.2 to get the "real" sales if that was the case.

The problem comes when you compare various companies shipped announcments, they historically may come up well over reported NPD sales, as you report with the Wii However, I dont think this repudiates NPD numbers.

For one, I think shipped numbers are often announced to "North America". Canada can be 10% here that is NOT included in NPD. That can explain a good chunk of the discrepancy right there.

But we dont know if these Wii shipped numbers are rounded up, include demo kiosks, replacement units, still some in the channel, what day the NPD cut off, etc etc.
________
SweetAdelline live

 

[22psi]

I am getting a headache with all these numbers

 

[kenneth9265_3]

http://nexgenwars.com/

 

[Fu3lFr3nzy]

http://nexgenwars.com/

those are only estimates though and not exact sales

 

[Tap In]

those are only estimates though and not exact sales

yes... but nobody has exact sales... there's the rub. :smile:

 

[Tap In]

Ah, that's critical information! I posted in another thread my concern about those numbers. If indeed it ended on the 25th, then we are missing a large chunk of data.

indeed, some are now speculating 7- 800,000 + for all of November

 

[wco81]

Lot of stores doing promotions. Besides the Microcenter and Amazon deals, Fry's has bundles with a couple of games for like $450.

Does MS subsidize these? At least pay for the advertising (co-op dollars) of these deals?

With the Holidays and GoW, you wouldn't think they'd need to cut prices to move units.

But maybe they really wanted to hit that target.

 

[NBK-Steve]

Lot of stores doing promotions. Besides the Microcenter and Amazon deals, Fry's has bundles with a couple of games for like $450.

Does MS subsidize these? At least pay for the advertising (co-op dollars) of these deals?

With the Holidays and GoW, you wouldn't think they'd need to cut prices to move units.

But maybe they really wanted to hit that target.

Just got a 360 for my nephew tonight at Micro Center $200 off the premium.

 

[Tap In]

Lot of stores doing promotions. Besides the Microcenter and Amazon deals, Fry's has bundles with a couple of games for like $450.

Does MS subsidize these? At least pay for the advertising (co-op dollars) of these deals?

With the Holidays and GoW, you wouldn't think they'd need to cut prices to move units.

But maybe they really wanted to hit that target.

because $400 is a LOT of money for most people to spend on a game console. (let alone 5 -$600).

The truth is they have already reduced manufacturing costs and since they can afford it, they can give bundles away instead of discounts.

Discounts run the risk of devaluing their machine compared to sony (which in their eyes is equal minus the HD movie play) by simply lowering the price now. Since Sony is so high and there are virtually no PS3s on the shelf they don't have to.

And allegedly GoW sold 1 mil from the 8th to the 25th so I'm guessing it moved a few systems too.

I expect more of the deals all through next year before a price drop, which is also coming. When sony hits their $600 saturation point at 5-10 million, they will be forced to add-in or price drop as well. MS spent a great deal of time and effort making sure that they could always be priced equal to PS3 (when they expected $400 form Sony) and now they know they will always be able to be priced lower than PS3.

It's a dream scenario for MS to compete (nobody said win yet), and the Core system is icing on the cake.

Oh and to answer your question, I'd guess that some of these deals are retailers choice but that MS does cooperate as well with discounts.

 

[expletive]

Theres always a caveat with these numbers, well it was only a 4 week month or it didnt count some critical days, etc.

Do we really think MS could sell another 300K in the last 6 days of November?

Just got a 360 for my nephew tonight at Micro Center $200 off the premium.

How did you get $200 off the premium, i thought there was only a $100 rebate?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Do we really think MS could sell another 300K in the last 6 days of November?

Doubt it, but 100k-200k is likely. They do 50k in a normal week, at least double that for Nov, plus any huge single day sales for Thanksgiving (saturday?).

Probably sold around 150k in that last week. Not sure why that matters though...it'll be reflected in the Dec sales.