PS4 Rumors?

[Rangers]

Yes, the Takahashi book has some absurdly early timeframes during Xbox part one that microsoft was thinking about 360. So I'm sure Sony does the same. Remember Xenos was *finished* in late 2004! Just three years after Xbox. To compare that would mean the succesor GPU would have to be ready in about two years from now if they used the same, admittedly advanced timeframe.

The interesting part too me is trying to project out with any reasonabloness what we'll be doing in 5 years. That is essentially what these guys have to do.

For example, right now, just based on a 8X theory, they'd be thinking about 192 pipe GPU's (if there are even pipes by then), probably in the 1000-1400 mhz range (considering PS3/360 about doubled Xbox GPU clock speed).

The amount of power there is absurd, but really with a qaud core Kentsfield and Quad SLI, you could begin approaching maybe, 1/2 of that raw power today. Of course, quad sli is terribly inneficient currently though, which would make it something far less in practice. But the point to take away is you can already qaudruple at least the theoretical power of todays consoles, meaning next gen technology is clearly advancing just as fast as ever.

It's pretty mindboggling, and basically just scary the kind of visuals we'll be looking at, when you look at Alan Wake, which already looks like playing video almost.

The early 360 targets, very very early, were supposedly 16 core CPU and 60 shaders on the GPU. At least on the GPU they weren't that far off from the 48 it ended up. I'm sure at the time with 4 pipe GPU's, it probably sounded absurd.
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DivaVirtual cam

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Roight now I'm expecting a Cell+GPU hybrid structure. Attaching Unified Shaders onto a Cell, perhaps a 1:4:4 PPE:SPE:USE would give a mini key-systems on a chip, and would be scalable and flexible. You could put one of those in a portable, and then 4 or more in a full console, having the same coding environment and even bite-wise compatibilitiy between devices. And then allow multiple devices to hook up over networks too. This was a key design concept to Cell and would be greatly enhanced by the integration of a uniform graphics pipeline IMO. Then for the long-haul you can work on just fitting more and more cores onto a chip, building on the dristributed coding model needed to harness it all. Perhaps an Overlord processor that oversees distribtion of workload over many cores.

It'd definitely be something I'm sure nVidia would be keen for. That'd wire them into being the sole graphics provider of the Cell family, and if Cell does break into other devices, TVs, mobile phones etc., nVidia will be making money off every device just like STI. STIN. Or NITS... Hmmm, a NITS Cell sounds like a small terrorist group made up of itchy headlice

 

[avaya]

Work on PS4 should have begun. It's a matter of public record that work on PS3 was put into motion as soon as PS2 was finalised and manufacturing had begun.

 

[MrWibble]

A PS3 game developer somewhere here in the states. Not sure what kind of content(code or artwork), but I do know they're at least not a janitor or an intern. LOL Plus, they've been working for them for at least 3 years or so.

While your friend may think they have the inside line, even the most senior game development staff within Sony will currently have zero information on where they're going with their next console. Anything they've currently heard is likely to have been speculation at best.

While some R&D work is almost certainly being done on future technology, I doubt very much whether this extends beyond plans to incrementally develop existing tech (i.e. Cell) or blue-sky experimentation, just to get an idea for what can be achieved. Nothing you'd call "PS4" at this point.

It will be mid to late in the PS3's life cycle before any development staff are told anything at all about what will succeed it, at which point a select few high-up management and hardware designers have decided what they want to aim for, and some very overworked chip and system people are wildly panicking on how to actually build it.

If any real information on upcoming hardware is going to get leaked, I'd kind of expect to hear about an update to PSP before a successor to PS3. (And I've heard absolutely nothing about either topic, before anyone asks!)

 

[LunchBox]

"Second hand sources"?

like smoking???
will it give me emphysema and/or lung cancer???

 

[Andy]

I wouldn't have thought this before, but now with mergers between such companies as AMD and ATI, I start to wonder. I don't know what it is, but I get the feeling that Sony and Nvidia may merge as a company, particularly if PS3 does well, and their partnership grows stronger.

Call me crazy, but I think it could happen, and PS4 I believe would benefit considerably by this.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I wouldn't have thought this before, but now with mergers between such companies as AMD and ATI, I start to wonder. I don't know what it is, but I get the feeling that Sony and Nvidia may merge as a company, particularly if PS3 does well, and their partnership grows stronger.

I very doubt they'll merge any time soon. Sony aren't in a financially strong position for nVidia to really benefit. It'd make more sense to just have a strong technological alliance.

 

[Andy]

What about say, 4-6 years from now? I think it'd be a win for both companys, for the most part anyway.

 

[ADEX]

Hmm, this is an interesting topic, time for the speculata...


For PS3 I just expect a super Cell, with perhaps and enhanced PPE with loads and loads of SPEs, more LS and 64bit FP is almost a given but I doubt they'll change it much otherwise. Everyone will be used to the PPE by then so I doubt they'll even change it that much. If they add OOO it'll be a very mild type.

PPE cache may be bigger but I doubt by a large margin as that'll be far too slow and could potentially be a bottleneck for the entire system.

GPUs aren't really me area but I expect there'll be something better there, the emphasis may be on real time raytracing (Cell can nearly do it already) by then so while I expect rasterisation to be present the GPU may not be completely focused on it, it could even have SPEs.

So, PS4 could be something like a super Cell + GPUs with integrated SPEs. I'd also expect to see a monster frame buffer on the GPU as that'd speed up rendering nicely.

Memory is going to be a major pain in the ass as it's going to need to be massively faster and that's exceedingly difficult, expensive or just plain impossible using current technology. What is be possible however is optical interconnects, so these may be used instead.

The biggest problem they are going to have is heat, don't expect much in the way of clock speed rises or complex processor cores.

The drive will be a "UV-Ray" with PS5 following with an "X-Ray" drive...

With Sony's trend in reducing noise I expect the PS4 to be completely silent and PS5 to be so silent it'll suck in noise from outside.


Sony have already said PS3 will evolve over time so we won't see the same PS3 hardware on the market in 5 years time. PS4 could in effect be nothing more than an enhanced "specification" of the PS3. Developers will thus target the PS4 specification rather than a specific piece of hardware.

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XBox 720 is a bit more difficult to call. Adding more cores will slow the cache down and generate more heat so you may see something closer to Cell with the existing 3 cores + a bunch of simpler cores. Even MS may not want to fund the development of these so they could be ripped out of the GPU. Raytracing could again be a big consideration so the GPU will also be focused on it, it'll have a bigger frame buffer as well.

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As for Nintendo I think they're in the race as it is and that'll become even more apparent. If they stay in hardware at all I think they'll just produce super cheap consoles but will be in what is in effect a completely different race.

 

[liolio]

For the 720.
I think MS will stick with UMA design.

IN 2010/2011 they 're likely to aim at 1080p and having enought edram to fit the framebuffer will possible. They will possibly to integrate the smart edram on the gpu die.
That way they will minimize production costs.
One bus between cpu and gpu, one bus between gpu (or cpu) the memory pool.

For the gpu I'm not sure they will stick with USA.
I have the feeling that gs and vs works and others vectors heavy works will be done on dsp like coprocessors on the cpu die (less general purpose than spe).
but this can be viewed as a waste of transistors.
This trannies on the cpu would be idle while the ps are working on the gpu.
depending on this choice (usa non usa design) I guess the memoru controler will be on the cpu (if non usa design) or on the gpu (if usa design).

At this time I think that they will be able to put a lot of things on a die, so I would prefer a very efficient units (for vs,gs, etc etc..) even if sometime these units are iddle. More it can help with power and heat management.

So I would like to see non usa design matching the graphic work load with a very asymetric cpu design with a monster ps gpu working along with hits integrated smart edram.
I don't clearly know why but i fell like in that case the memory controler should be on the cpu.

They will have have some strong "general purpose" cores on the cpu die. OOO or ioe depend of the clock they're aiming at.

I don't know if they will stick with cache or if they will choose a more streaming architecture aka cell with very fast bus.

In 2010/2011 how many mb of cache could they put in the cpu? 4MB? 8MB?
Is that enough?, I have no clue.

So I think even if the next next gen system will be aiming at huge graphic workload, I see them as very cpu centric design.

Interesting can IBM deliver that kind of integration in theirs cpu (vertors unit gp cores, gpu part with the logic to glue it together) I think they miss gpu expertise.

For me MS is likely to stay with ATI.

What do you think :
Will MS stay with IBM or shift to a plain amd/ati design?

I think We will know soon, this choice will happen early in the design creation.

 

[AzBat]

This much is true.
This thread benefits now from the Vysez Circle of Protectionâ„¢, speculation can now roam free in this thread!

I'll probably regret posting it, but right now it looks good. I guess we'll see.

Actually, this forum is way more interesting and/or better when we speculate about incoming products based on the latest news some of us heard from the grapevine or on patents.
The forum is perfect for discussing, quietly, old architectures too.

Discussing current stuff, especially the newly released products, is almost a vain endeavor seeing that one would have to say nothing but positive things, about the architecture on topic, because of some members who tend to be emotionally attached to their consumer electronic products to the point of believing that they're perfects and that competition products are in every way inferior no matter what.

I totally agree, discussion here was much more interesting when had very little info to go on.

Tommy McClain

 

[AzBat]

While your friend may think they have the inside line, even the most senior game development staff within Sony will currently have zero information on where they're going with their next console. Anything they've currently heard is likely to have been speculation at best.

While some R&D work is almost certainly being done on future technology, I doubt very much whether this extends beyond plans to incrementally develop existing tech (i.e. Cell) or blue-sky experimentation, just to get an idea for what can be achieved. Nothing you'd call "PS4" at this point.

It will be mid to late in the PS3's life cycle before any development staff are told anything at all about what will succeed it, at which point a select few high-up management and hardware designers have decided what they want to aim for, and some very overworked chip and system people are wildly panicking on how to actually build it.

If any real information on upcoming hardware is going to get leaked, I'd kind of expect to hear about an update to PSP before a successor to PS3. (And I've heard absolutely nothing about either topic, before anyone asks!)

Thanks for the reply MrWibble. I agree with your points. It is too early at the moment for such info to be leaked. However, considering it came from a Sony employee, I was very intrigued to say the least. You can expect I'll keep digging when I can. Who knows, maybe I'll get real info next time? LOL

Tommy McClain

 

[pc999]

Well one thing we must consider before we speculate is that isnt only tech that matters.

I mean I think that next gen designs will be much diferent if Wii does have much more sucess than the others or if PS3 does have it, or if they want to make the life cicle of the consoles bigger, or if the markets grows/change in a unexpeted manner and (or?) if appear new designs in gaming (whatever console) that change the dinamics of the market.

Anyway some predictions: todays next gen will last longer than expected; there will be a lot made in terms of interfaces (from motion detection to cameras and speech recognition as both Wiimote and EyeToy seems to be very good at atracting new gamers and please old gamers; the HW will resemble (with features too) Intel Platform 21015 (or whatever is called), because 1) consoles arent just consoles anymore 2) there will be a lot of R&D (HW/SW) done by then (from AIPUs to speech recg) 3) will be cheaper/easy to dev this way 4) it can bring features that will bring innovation and new gamers; they will be overall cheaper; they will try to offload the devs/art work as much as possible; gfx jump will not be as big.

 

[Angelcurio]

The thing that actually interests me the most about future consoles and systems (pc) is memory, since it has become the piece of hardware that has made the shortest techinal jumps compared to other parts.

 

[Ty]

Thanks for the reply MrWibble. I agree with your points. It is too early at the moment for such info to be leaked. However, considering it came from a Sony employee, I was very intrigued to say the least. You can expect I'll keep digging when I can. Who knows, maybe I'll get real info next time? LOL

Tommy McClain

And that's why I base the accuracy of his statement upon what he does. As Wibble points out, if he's a game developer (even first party), he will likely not know a damn thing. Even SCEA could get scant information on the PS3 when asked (I knew people who were leads their). So unless he's part of the engineering team, then definitely take it with a huge grain of salt.