DFC Intelligence's - The Fight for Number One in Video Games

[TheChefO]

GC is at ~4 million.

Xbox at ~450K

PS2 at ~23 million

Japan / Asia
PS2 - 22.83 million
Xbox - 2 million
GameCube - 3.98 million
Xbox 360 - 0.1 million
Game Boy Advance - 16.47 million
PSP - 4.2 million
Nintendo DS - 5.7 million

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8498&page=2

Regardless I agree it is improbable for 360 to hit 6million in Japan, but stranger things have happened.

The big thing MS needs to do in Japan is make j-devs realize they can still make money with their software on sales outside of Japan. They seem to be on the right path in this regard. Hopefully as this software library builds it will become a much more viable option in Japan ...eventually.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Purchasing exclusive rights to DQ.....

I hope you don't think I was writing a serious proposition! Just pointing out that a Best Case Scenario that's not grounded in likely events isn't really worth considering. Those Best Cases tend to actually be 'best outcome withint the world of probablity' rather than 'absolute best that could happen, no matter how unlikely'.

 

[Teasy]

Just FYI the 2 million number for XBox is for all asian regions (including places like Australia), not just Japan.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

I hope you don't think I was writing a serious proposition! Just pointing out that a Best Case Scenario that's not grounded in likely events isn't really worth considering. Those Best Cases tend to actually be 'best outcome withint the world of probablity' rather than 'absolute best that could happen, no matter how unlikely'.

Well, I agree. I also don't think any "best case scenario" that has Xbox doing 6 million in Japan is grounded in any semblance of reality, though I suppose this portion of the report has little and less to do with the rest (depending on how you want to see things).

Your post was a bit ambiguous (to me at least) and I was certainly hoping you weren't serious.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8498&page=2

Regardless I agree it is improbable for 360 to hit 6million in Japan, but stranger things have happened.

The big thing MS needs to do in Japan is make j-devs realize they can still make money with their software on sales outside of Japan. They seem to be on the right path in this regard. Hopefully as this software library builds it will become a much more viable option in Japan ...eventually.

It has already been pointed out, I see, but it bears repeating: Japanese sales of Xbox are still less than 500K and they're never going to cross. Those figures include a lot more than just Japan.

 

[BenSkywalker]

The 360 has about the same chance of reaching 6 Million in Japan as the PS3 has of reaching a global installed base of one billion(percentage wise, it would be less of a jump for Sony actually ).

 

[StefanS]

The 360 has about the same chance of reaching 6 Million in Japan as the PS3 has of reaching a global installed base of one billion(percentage wise, it would be less of a jump for Sony actually ).

Yeah. Personally, I'd consider it a huge success, if the X360 reached 1 million in Japan which is not going to be easy.

 

[nelg]

Bump.


It seems that DFC's predictions may pan out after all.

So while Sony struggles with positioning issues Microsoft and Nintendo are free to try and build a solid base of actual video game players. The good news is that for both companies, under any scenario, DFC forecasts that the Microsoft Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii will have a larger installed base than their respective predecessors. However, we think the company with the biggest opportunity is Nintendo. With a market leading price and a compelling mass market message the Wii has the opportunity to be the market share leader in all major regions.

 

[TheChefO]

Bump.


It seems that DFC's predictions may pan out after all.

Interesting, xb360 is sitting at 340k in Japan after the first year, ps3 at roughly double and wii at roughly double again.

 

[TheChefO]

Yeah. Personally, I'd consider it a huge success, if the X360 reached 1 million in Japan which is not going to be easy.

If they can manage 2 more years in Japan they just might be able to squeek past that mark.

 

[one]

If they can manage 2 more years in Japan they just might be able to squeek past that mark.

With Blue Dragon 6 and Lost Odyssey 3, maybe.

 

[scooby_dooby]

If they can keep selling 5-10k per week they'll pass 1million no problem. IMO probably be at 500-600k by the end of this year, with Trusty Bell, Lost Odyssey and Infinite Undiscovery from Tri-Ace.

I would consider success for MS 1-2 million installed in Japan, that builds a solid userbase and should attract some decent developer support for any company looking to market their game outside Japan, and in the scheme of the global market, those are the only japanese games that really matter.

 

[patsu]

MS is doing aggressive push in Japan. Blue Dragon is also a manga series in the weekly JUMP magazine. Did they start the manga in parallel with the game ? (There was also an Xbox 360 advertisement). Which one come first ?

I just read 2 episodes during my last Asia trip. The protagonist loves breasts... em... not the chicken's. So yeah... marketing in full force if the manga and game are the same thing. ;-)

 

[Flux]

Granted they commented later on that they believed the 360 would take the crown next gen, as do I, but I just don't see the above happening. The Wii is at a serious disadvantage by not supporting hi-def. I equate the Wii to the N64 when it came out. The Wii doesn't support hi-def; the N64 didn't support CD. At the time, the cartridge format was a significant hindrance for the N64 compared to its counterpart, the Playstation, and I think this next gen will follow the same pattern by the Wii's inability to support hi-def like its counterparts. Nintendo seems to always one step behind when it comes to technology.

That said, hardcore Nintendo fans will swipe up the consoles like there's no tomorrow, and so will the little kiddies (or the parents of the little kiddies) who don't want to pay premium dollar for videogames.

Microsoft is sitting pretty this gen. They are the median between price and performance. Nintendo's games will look graphically incompetent by comparison with its counterparts, and Sony's machine will look ridiculously expensive by comparison with its counterparts. Microsoft's will be the most reasonable choice by offering the latest technology at the most reasonable price. It is a good mix of the two and may even turn out to have better looking games than the PS3.

Nintendo sold 4 and half million Wiis in less than 3 months. Until this trend changes we can only go by facts and what is happening now. Wii is extremely well with most of its larger titles still in development. Just think what will happen when Super Smash Bros. Brawl,Metriod Prime 3,Super Mario Galaxy,Fire Emblem,Sadness,Mario Strikers Charged,Disaster: Day of Crisis,Big Brain Academy Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles, and Project Hammer etc in 2007? How long will MGS4 be in development?

Take a look at these release dates...

http://www.consolecheatcodes.com/wii/wiireleasedates.html

I think wii is doing great compared to what position nintendo been in post-n64.

 

[ninzel]

Wii is getting GRAW2? I know it's getting BIA but I thought GRAW would be too good to be true.

 

[Flux]

Wii is getting GRAW2? I know it's getting BIA but I thought GRAW would be too good to be true.

Is Wii getting GRAW2?

 

[TheChefO]

With Blue Dragon 6 and Lost Odyssey 3, maybe.

340,000 + (340,000 X 2years) > 1,000,000

 

[TheChefO]

Nintendo sold 4 and half million Wiis in less than 3 months. Until this trend changes we can only go by facts and what is happening now. Wii is extremely well with most of its larger titles still in development. Just think what will happen when Super Smash Bros. Brawl,Metriod Prime 3,Super Mario Galaxy,Fire Emblem,Sadness,Mario Strikers Charged,Disaster: Day of Crisis,Big Brain Academy Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles, and Project Hammer etc in 2007? How long will MGS4 be in development?

Take a look at these release dates...

http://www.consolecheatcodes.com/wii/wiireleasedates.html

I think wii is doing great compared to what position nintendo been in post-n64.

Not that I disagree with the sentiment that Wii is selling extremely well but the 3 months of data you're refering to are also the strongest period of sales for the games industry.

On the other hand Wii's still sellout as soon as they hit retail so we have yet to see what the real demand/sales rate is as it is currently supply limited... still. Along with DS

As great as the sales are for these platforms, if you were a stock holder, when would you get to the point of being upset with Nintendo for not producing enough product to meet demand?
Should they be actively looking into adding manufacturing help?

As crazy as that sounds givin their record sales!

 

[swanlee]

Japan is becoming irrelevant in the big picture nowadays, they seem to have flocked to handhelds. Not sure why people keep using Japan as a barometer it's one of the smaller regions and does not hold the weight of the industry like it use to.

 

[TheChefO]

Japan is becoming irrelevant in the big picture nowadays, they seem to have flocked to handhelds. Not sure why people keep using Japan as a barometer it's one of the smaller regions and does not hold the weight of the industry like it use to.

Handhelds and Wii

While Wii is just selling ~3 to 1 to PS3, it is also still supply limited.