K.I.L.E.R said:
Yes, in about 80 years. Unless we have an accident of course. Or some bad disease. Or a heart attack. Or get murdered.
Huge Asteroid to Fly Past Earth July 3
- Thread starter Deepak
- Start date
Yes, in about 80 years. Unless we have an accident of course. Or some bad disease. Or a heart attack. Or get murdered.
MinMstr mentioned that there's a 50 chance of each asteroid hitting us.
I'd say that's a good probability to kill us.
Let's say there are 10 asteroids.
Pr(50 per asteroid hitting us
Pr(50) = 0.5^10 = 0.0009765625
To be hit by all 10 but doesn't this assume that each asteroid doesn't depend on each other to determine if we are going to be hit by the consecutive asteroid?
So that means the probability to be hit by all of them could be much higher.
I'd say that's a good probability to kill us.
Let's say there are 10 asteroids.
Pr(50 per asteroid hitting us
Pr(50) = 0.5^10 = 0.0009765625
To be hit by all 10 but doesn't this assume that each asteroid doesn't depend on each other to determine if we are going to be hit by the consecutive asteroid?
So that means the probability to be hit by all of them could be much higher.
There are always PMs for this sort of thing.
If you need to post anything personal then please use PMs.
If you have a list of behavioural changes you'd like me to implement then please PM me about it.
In the meantime, I will do as you suggested, think of better jokes.
Okay then. 50% chance they all miss, so what chance for one to hit and the rest to miss?
I would like to deconstruct the probabilities.
If you need to post anything personal then please use PMs.
If you have a list of behavioural changes you'd like me to implement then please PM me about it.
In the meantime, I will do as you suggested, think of better jokes.
Neeyik said:
Okay then. 50% chance they all miss, so what chance for one to hit and the rest to miss?
I would like to deconstruct the probabilities.
Dont forget that there are not actually 3200 of these things hurtling towards us, not even 1. Its going considerably to the side of us. But anyway, prob. of 1 out of 3200 asteroids hittin us is 0.5. Now if you only have 10 asteroids in the same space the prob for one of those hitting is drastically less.
Cool, then you already know the answer.K.I.L.E.R said:
- work out the area of a circle with radius equal to that of the Earth (say 6370km)
- work out the area of a circle with radius equal to that of the Moons orbit (say 384400km)
- divide the first by the second, this gives you the fraction of a random stream of asteroids passing within the Moon's orbit which would impact Earth (~0.03% by my maths)
Granted this doesn't actually give you the correct ratio, because it assumes the trajectory is unaffected by the Earth's gravity, but I doubt it's *that* far off (maybe an order of magnitude, or two
)If you really want to work it out, it'll make some good coding practice for you in numerical integration! The physics is all easy, just Newton's Laws.
london-boy said:
You got it!!! And why the hell do you know that? Shouldn't you be listening to Abba or such?
EDIT: rabid said it already...
Back on topic: all the statistics won't help if that once in 4.8 mio. years is tomorrow, for example. But such thoughts are definitely not worth the effort.
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I figured you'd make me work it out.
When I went over Monte Carlo I struggled to find anything special about it that I didn't already know or done in class.
Why does everyone give funny little names to basic things like that?
When I went over Monte Carlo I struggled to find anything special about it that I didn't already know or done in class.
Why does everyone give funny little names to basic things like that?
nutball said:Cool, then you already know the answer.
- work out the area of a circle with radius equal to that of the Earth (say 6370km)
- work out the area of a circle with radius equal to that of the Moons orbit (say 384400km)
- divide the first by the second, this gives you the fraction of a random stream of asteroids passing within the Moon's orbit which would impact Earth (~0.03% by my maths)
Granted this doesn't actually give you the correct ratio, because it assumes the trajectory is unaffected by the Earth's gravity, but I doubt it's *that* far off (maybe an order of magnitude, or two
If you really want to work it out, it'll make some good coding practice for you in numerical integration! The physics is all easy, just Newton's Laws.
There's no real magic to Monte Carlo, except maybe interpreting the statistical significance of your results.K.I.L.E.R said:I figured you'd make me work it out.
When I went over Monte Carlo I struggled to find anything special about it that I didn't already know or done in class.
It's named after Monte Carlo, in Monaco, which is a haven for gambling and other probabilisitic methods for extracting money from people.
Captain Chickenpants
Regular
nutball said:
A related problem to look at is Buffon's needle.
Deepak said:Can't Earth's gravitational pull suck asteroids passing close to her?
Yah, I'm a bit late t the party but regarding to this quote, yes with a big but. The gravitational well of earth is miniscule compared to the gas giants and the sun. So any objects will have a tendency to head towards larger bodies and ignore earth all together.
This makes any earth impact a rare event indeed. It is thanks to the outer rim planets that life can thrive on earth.