2010 Marketshare Prediction Poll
- Thread starter TheChefO
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I think Sony and Nintendo will be close, MS will be third.
MS just doesn't have any feasible way to make up for the lack of sales in the asian territories and they can't feasibly outsell PS3/Rev in the western territories enough to offset this. Sony and Nintendo will sell well everywhere and MS will sell well in the western territories (at least in the states).
I put 40/20/40 as my vote -- give or take a few percent each (maybe like 40/25/35 or some such).
It's hard to guess at this point, as reading the fan boards paints such a drastically different picture than what reality is, so you can't really base anything off them. For example: a lot of fan boards thought Sony's E3 was rather poor, but every single one of my casual friends wants a PS3 more now than before, even after hearing the prices (some also want a Rev now too). Even my sister wants a PS3. Who knows how it'll turn out, but it should be pretty close all around -- certainly closer than last gen.
MS just doesn't have any feasible way to make up for the lack of sales in the asian territories and they can't feasibly outsell PS3/Rev in the western territories enough to offset this. Sony and Nintendo will sell well everywhere and MS will sell well in the western territories (at least in the states).
I put 40/20/40 as my vote -- give or take a few percent each (maybe like 40/25/35 or some such).
It's hard to guess at this point, as reading the fan boards paints such a drastically different picture than what reality is, so you can't really base anything off them. For example: a lot of fan boards thought Sony's E3 was rather poor, but every single one of my casual friends wants a PS3 more now than before, even after hearing the prices (some also want a Rev now too). Even my sister wants a PS3. Who knows how it'll turn out, but it should be pretty close all around -- certainly closer than last gen.
pc999 said:
If they can get anywhere near that this fall their biggest issue will be supply as they will have absolutely no problem selling out from now till, well ... next gen I suppose
That would solidify markethare asap and should woo devs left and right. Perhaps these sub $200 pricepoints are what caused a sudden shift of support for Wii recently.
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Sorry for going OT, but I have to ask...
I think this is the last thing or most recent thing I heard about ps3 games on ps3's network.
Jim Cordeira from Gaming-Age...
http://www.gaming-age.com/news/2006/5/17-51
As for the 3rd party stuff...the same Jim posted this in the forums.
This is not my news so dont shoot the messenger.
You referring to the BC part? or the Cheap PS1/PS2 games part?Hardknock said:
Not sure how that would work with a unified login. pay a subscription for most ps3 games, but pay another subscription on the side for a game that doesnt choose ps3's online network?Hardknock said:
I think this is the last thing or most recent thing I heard about ps3 games on ps3's network.
Jim Cordeira from Gaming-Age...
http://www.gaming-age.com/news/2006/5/17-51
As for the 3rd party stuff...the same Jim posted this in the forums.
This is not my news so dont shoot the messenger.
funny you added those, but did not feel the need to list ps3 titles.Hardknock said:
how that is a bullet point is beyond me. you could argue the same for all three consoles.Hardknock said:
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Bad_Boy said:
Of course I'm talking about the "fully working BC" part. Using emulation (which is what I've been told they're using) is always tricky business.
He only listed 2 Xbox titles, I was expanding on it a bit.
Maybe I should have used "best" instead of "great" selection. And it's a bullet point because they are very popular in the West.
I think this poll is innacurate (not knocking your idea ChefO ) in that it assumes that the sales of one machine will take away from the market of another. I think that Wii will capture 40% of the market, but I also believe that this will leave Sony and Microsoft still ~80% of the market to fight over. I don't believe that Wii will be a machine that people purchase in instead of PS3 or 360, but alongside them. My prediction is that Microsoft hits ~40% of the market in the best case scenario, and that PS3 will hit about 40-50%. There is just no way imo that PS3 will lose more than (assuming 70% market share and 100million sales, 142million person market) 45 million customers this generation, even given the price point (that is if they got 40% of the market, assuming the aforementioned #'s).
People may wait till price drops happen, but PS3 should still going to be a majority leader. If Microsoft pulls even with PS3 this generation that will be amazing enough. I think worst case scenario for Sony is 40-40 split with microsoft, and Nintendo should expect about 30-40% of the market to buy their hardware. I'm assuming of course a lot of Wii60 and PSwii combinations. Microsoft is set to make a lot more revenue from their game division this generation, including probable profits on systems sold by 2008-2009. They have learned a lot of lessons from Xbox, and are making some very good moves (Live! Arcade, accessory sales like camera, HD-DVD, cheaper hardware + better thought out contracts with hardware manufacturers). I think those that assume terrible Asian territory sales will be surprised by the 360's strength, as soon as we see good 3rd party Japanese titles. Microsoft has the most work left to do in this area, but it is not impossible. Their dev relations this time around are much improved.
) in that it assumes that the sales of one machine will take away from the market of another. I think that Wii will capture 40% of the market, but I also believe that this will leave Sony and Microsoft still ~80% of the market to fight over. I don't believe that Wii will be a machine that people purchase in instead of PS3 or 360, but alongside them. My prediction is that Microsoft hits ~40% of the market in the best case scenario, and that PS3 will hit about 40-50%. There is just no way imo that PS3 will lose more than (assuming 70% market share and 100million sales, 142million person market) 45 million customers this generation, even given the price point (that is if they got 40% of the market, assuming the aforementioned #'s).People may wait till price drops happen, but PS3 should still going to be a majority leader. If Microsoft pulls even with PS3 this generation that will be amazing enough. I think worst case scenario for Sony is 40-40 split with microsoft, and Nintendo should expect about 30-40% of the market to buy their hardware. I'm assuming of course a lot of Wii60 and PSwii combinations. Microsoft is set to make a lot more revenue from their game division this generation, including probable profits on systems sold by 2008-2009. They have learned a lot of lessons from Xbox, and are making some very good moves (Live! Arcade, accessory sales like camera, HD-DVD, cheaper hardware + better thought out contracts with hardware manufacturers). I think those that assume terrible Asian territory sales will be surprised by the 360's strength, as soon as we see good 3rd party Japanese titles. Microsoft has the most work left to do in this area, but it is not impossible. Their dev relations this time around are much improved.
So basically, all of your additional bulletpoints I specifically quoted have been refuted except the 360 titles one of course, but your choosing to argue the last one by personal doubt alone? mmmk.Hardknock said:I'll wait until it's fully realized. Going by the past they've promised and under delivered in this area before. But if it's true that would be a very nice plus to have no doubt about it.
Just trying to be fair thats all.
.Melchiah.
Regular
Now it's fixed.
edit: typo
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Where's the "none of the above, please explain" option?
I see Sony still up there with way over 60%, MS & Nintendo sharing the rest. Though I'd like to see Nintendo go up in the charts, maybe the new controller along with enough great games will change the situation
Just my gut feeling here, based on no facts.
I see Sony still up there with way over 60%, MS & Nintendo sharing the rest. Though I'd like to see Nintendo go up in the charts, maybe the new controller along with enough great games will change the situation
Just my gut feeling here, based on no facts.
pakotlar said:I think this poll is innacurate (not knocking your idea ChefO
People may wait till price drops happen, but PS3 should still going to be a majority leader. If Microsoft pulls even with PS3 this generation that will be amazing enough. I think worst case scenario for Sony is 40-40 split with microsoft, and Nintendo should expect about 30-40% of the market to buy their hardware. I'm assuming of course a lot of Wii60 and PSwii combinations. Microsoft is set to make a lot more revenue from their game division this generation, including probable profits on systems sold by 2008-2009. They have learned a lot of lessons from Xbox, and are making some very good moves (Live! Arcade, accessory sales like camera, HD-DVD, cheaper hardware + better thought out contracts with hardware manufacturers). I think those that assume terrible Asian territory sales will be surprised by the 360's strength, as soon as we see good 3rd party Japanese titles. Microsoft has the most work left to do in this area, but it is not impossible. Their dev relations this time around are much improved.
I agree there seems to be a major shift coming WRT "who" is buying these machines and expanding the market in general. While this will be a good thing I'd say that Wii is not the only one looking to expand their market. Sony seems to be ready to market the ps3 outside traditional gamer realms which could bring in scores more buyers, but potentially not all that hyped for gaming. Wii has the same potential of sparking interest outside of the traditional gamers realm. With this general outward movement this gen there will also be some affect on 360 sales going to non-traditional gamers.
With that said, The concept of the poll isn't for how many (millions) will be in each camp, because THAT is a whole other wildcard in itself. The concept with this poll is potential growth, where will the market stand by 2010?
edit - agreed - also there will be significant overlap with Wii.
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