Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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anexanhume
Veteran
Why are we assuming a huge die and TDP is possible but no special cooling system is likely? Vapor chambers, non regular fan blade spacing (like the macbook pro) or the new 'sinkless' designs that are supposed to revolutionize the cooling market?
because copper, and because money
anexanhume
Veteran
because copper, and because money
But a 500 mm^2 die with huge interposer is no big deal
I agree it's crazy, and it makes the whole thing exponentially expensive all around the console. If there's any truth to this huge chip, maybe the devkits will be on 28nm, and the console release will be in 2014 at 20nm with a more reasonable size.But a 500 mm^2 die with huge interposer is no big deal
Well you didn't notice my replies?
Maybe you can check this recap from neogaf
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=45829589&postcount=327
Tech+gaming,from what i see
And seems like most of them are rich
Some new "info",
http://fudzilla.com/home/item/29953-kabini-to-be-10-percent-faster-than-28nm-bobcat
Jeff Rupley, Jaguar engineer is saying that Kabini is expected to clock 10% higher than Wichita was (cancelled 28nm bobcat). So I'm starting to think 2GHz is quite realistic, if not higher.
There is the new introduction of the X series with Kabini, which bring a 25w TDP. That's almost a 50% increase in TDP over the highest 17w bobcat part. So we have a process shrink, 50% higher TPD headroom, but twice as many cores, twice as much cache, wider vector units and more transistors per core all round. The shrink should come close to covering the fact the chip has more than twice the transistor count. With the 50% higher TDP on top of that I think 2.0-2.4GHz is probably likely, and these are the parts that are more likely to end up in consoles.
The only wild card is using more than one Jaguar CU. Are we talking 8 cores, 12 cores or 16 cores. I think at 4 we are pretty much guaranteed a clock speed over 2GHz, at 8+, maybe not as likely.
Now for some speculation based off known TDP's; how about this APU:
12 Jaguar cores w/ 6MB L2 cache @ 2GHz (75w), 1536SP custom 88xx series GPU at 1GHz (110w), 185w total for APU, die size 350mm^2+
Memory and misc could add 50w on top of that for a total system TDP of 235w.
Such a system is about as good as I'm expecting, granted using stacked memory with a capacity of 8GB+ and speed of 200GB/s+ would ultimately be the icing on the cake if it doesn't blow out the TDP, cost, or launch timing of the system.
COPS N RAPPERS
Regular
mildly big :smile2:
If Any is to go that rout, they might as well suffice with making the whole console of lightweight aluminum......they can put a lacquer coating on the console to make it shine if they want.
Just how big does any want a console to be i'm just curious to know the figures? maybe from there we can elaborate on parts. :smile2:
Wouldn't they want a higher clock speed if they have a higher number of cores due to Amdahl's law? I.E. being limited by single threaded performance.
a) all cores may not be used for games, and b) In a closed system, developers will likely find they can make use of a higher number of cores a fair bit easier than on a PC held back by the lowest common denominator and 6-7yr old consoles.
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Newcomer
Why you gotta toy with emotions like that.
"Console will use 285W of power"
Old xb360 used external AC adaptor which has 203W DC output, while gaming 185W AC input (found that figure somewhere), if we count 80% efficiency that is 148W DC and that is 73% of maximum (203W).
If we go with same 73% for next-XB, that is 208W average while gaming, if we subtract 58 W (?) for everything else, we are looking at around 150W for APU which is basically TDP.
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Half manipulation, half truth.
anexanhume
Veteran
I doubt either is prepared to wait for volume on 20nm while the other churns out 28nm based consoles.
I agree. Huge chip means a proven process, 20nm in 2014 will still be too early imo. Next year 28nm will be 2 years old, 32nm be about ~2.5 or so (at least from GF).
If you look at what's available now and at reasonable prices (retail ofcourse):
32nm: 315 mm FX-8350 chip ~ $200.
32nm: 246 mm A10-5800k ~ $130
I don't know what the margins are, but safe to say that AMD, Global Foundries, and the retailer make money on these and probably have the highest margins on the top end chips of the line.
There are no standalone chips to look at for 28nm, but ~350mm for the 79xx series and 294mm for the GTX 670/680 series are doable.
My personal guess is that we're looking at something around 350mm in 32/28nm for 8 CPU cores, a "7850" equivalent GPU, and 64MB of eDRAM.
nunomoreira
Newcomer
how much does a jaguar core consumes?
something like 2w no?
they could easily overclock it to 2Ghz and keep the power under 30W for the cpu.
something like 2w no?
they could easily overclock it to 2Ghz and keep the power under 30W for the cpu.
No and no.
Saw this in neogaf
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=506053
Well,back in November the #2 AMD China guy also said both will likely coming 2014,not 2013,with Durango a little better than PS4(but Durango>PS4 just a guess from durango and PS4 team's private communication,because according to #1 AMD china guy,AMD don't allow one team go to another team for "reference",unlike IBM.So maybe actually both power are very similar.)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=506053
Well,back in November the #2 AMD China guy also said both will likely coming 2014,not 2013,with Durango a little better than PS4(but Durango>PS4 just a guess from durango and PS4 team's private communication,because according to #1 AMD china guy,AMD don't allow one team go to another team for "reference",unlike IBM
.So maybe actually both power are very similar.)- Status
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