Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[rpg.314]

Meh, about the same time we move over to using REYES for realtime graphics.

IF Ms decides that REYES is the natural evolution of real time graphics, we could get there.

But with their console business and all that...

 

[SKYSONY]

CES 2012
Win8 + WinStore beta
<ONM> CTP
Tango1 launch

MWC 2012
Tango2 SDK

MIX 2012
Win8 RC
<ONM> beta
Tango2 launch + Apollo announce
Kinect commercial SDK

E3 2012
Xbox SDK, 3G Kinect games announce
Apollo SDK
Win8 RTM

Aug 2012
Win8, <ONM>, WP8, Xbox Store launch

Build 2012
XAML+XDE platform
Win8 PU DP
<OSN> announce

CES 2013
Win8 PU Beta

MWC 2013
Apollo+1 teaser

MIX 2013
HTML platform (IE11)
Win8 PU RC
<OSN> Beta
Apollo+1 SDK

E3 2013
Xbox”loop” announce
Win8 PU RTM

Build 2013
Win9 DP
<OSN> RTM
Xbox”loop” launch

CES 2014
Win9 Beta

MWC 2014
WPN teaser

MIX 2014
Win9 RC
WPN SDK
Kinect SDK update

E3 2014
Kinect HP2 announce
Xbox PU announce

Build 2014
Win9 RTM (IE12)
Win9M RTM
<OSN+1> CTP
Xbox PU preview

Nov 2014
Win9, Win9M, Kinect HP2 launch
Xbox PU RTW

This was leaked back in 2011. I don´t know if it is exactly accurate, but it was the first time I read the Loop name. It also mentions some Xbox PU thing I don´t know what it is.

 

[bgassassin]

Since Acert has had some "wild" speculation, I'll go ahead and add some of my own wild speculation from a week or two ago on GAF. It's giving support to the notion of PS4 and Xbox 3 using the same or similar SoC.

Here is a C&P of the summary I made.

Awhile back a poster named sweetvar26 made some posts saying that both MS and Sony were using Jaguar (CPU) cores in their next consoles and the codenames for the chips were Kryptos and Thebe (Forbes article said it's Thebes) respectively. The mentioning of MS came not too long after I had heard they switched to AMD for their CPU. Also although recently posted on GAF, this post on the EVGA board came out a few weeks ago saying MS and Sony would be using the same SoC. Then there was the article about MS and Sony working together in some fashion as the author was unable to determine exactly what the info he received meant. A poster on IGN posed the idea that the MS/Sony article didn't deal with them making one console together, but may deal with standardizing their hardware for their next consoles. That lead me back to thinking about the EVGA post. Going back to the codenames, while I had looked up both Thebe and Thebes (the latter being a city in Egypt and Greece), jeff_rigby said this:

Kryptos, the sculpture at CIA Langly is the Howard Carter account of the King Tut discovery in Thebe's Egypt.

Of which I pointed out that the Forbes article spelled it Thebes with an "s" which is how Thebes, Egypt is spelled. Also as I mentioned Thebes is a city in Greece and Kryptos supposedly means "hidden" in Greek.

So connecting those dots was speculation on our part. But if Kryptos and Thebes are their codenames, it's rather hard to see it as just a coincidence.

For extra context, here is MS/Sony article mentioned above. The writer of the article also provided a follow up.

 

[McHuj]

Since Acert has had some "wild" speculation, I'll go ahead and add some of my own wild speculation from a week or two ago on GAF. It's giving support to the notion of PS4 and Xbox 3 using the same or similar SoC.

Here is a C&P of the summary I made.

For extra context, here is MS/Sony article mentioned above. The writer of the article also provided a follow up.

Is that website reputable in anyway? I don't know so I'm asking. IMO, this is effectively the one console future Dyack was asking for and would be a huge boon for developers. I wonder if the supposed (assuming its true) third party was AMD. It seems they're big enough to have that sway. I'm sure they had the backing of developers as well.

 

[Carl B]

This is portending to a "one console" future the way that your computer reflects a "one PC" present. We knew this was the trajectory the minute we expected x86 chips to be in each. I doubt very greatly that Sony and MS are working officially towards any goal here together other than finding common ground towards profitability, and finding each other on that road. That said though, overall this is a trend that I think would favor Microsoft as far as product tie-ins and synergies would go.

These companies increasingly will need to rely on marketing, differentiation beyond hardware (though the systems could each have different hardware features outside of the ICs), and locking up or developing in-house worthwhile exclusives.

 

[ERP]

If both MS and Sony are using ATI SOC's there are going to be limited differences, after all they probably have similar COG and power requirements, but I'd be surprised if they were identical.
There is scope for them to differ depending on the exact timelines, how much the technical teams value CPU or GPU, and probably some small amount additional vendor specific silicon in each.

They'll be differentiated by software which is really the only thing that matters anyway, it's why I think Sony has an edge if it's a simultaneous launch. To early adopters games will be the only thing that matters and Sony have the better potential exclusives IMO.

 

[shiznit]

They'll be differentiated by software which is really the only thing that matters anyway, it's why I think Sony has an edge if it's a simultaneous launch. To early adopters games will be the only thing that matters and Sony have the better potential exclusives IMO.

And MS has a horde of Live fanatics unlikely to jump ship for an exclusive or two...

 

[Rangers]

I'm VERY dubious of the similar console thing.

None of our rumors suggest it. The consoles seem in fact far markedly more dissimilar than they are this gen (a fact I predicted, I dont expect them to be literally almost exactly equal machines this time, the odds just dont favor such a thing).

They'll be differentiated by software which is really the only thing that matters anyway,

Well, I strongly disagree

 

[Carl B]

None of our rumors suggest it. The consoles seem in fact far markedly more dissimilar than they are this gen (a fact I predicted, I dont expect them to be literally almost exactly equal machines this time, the odds just dont favor such a thing).

Get me up to speed - what are the reported differences?

 

[aaronspink]

Get me up to speed - what are the reported differences?

More a difference of emphasis than a difference of design. The broad generalization is that MS has more CPU cores and more memory but a little less GPU. ie, MS ~1.5-2x CPU, 2-4x memory ~.5-.7x gpu. Most everything points to them both using AMD derived CPUs and GPUs. So far it really seems they are as close to the same as we've seen consoles in a long long time. It is highly likely they both will support the same GPU feature set and the same CPU feature set.

 

[itsmydamnation]

More a difference of emphasis than a difference of design. The broad generalization is that MS has more CPU cores and more memory but a little less GPU. ie, MS ~1.5-2x CPU, 2-4x memory ~.5-.7x gpu. Most everything points to them both using AMD derived CPUs and GPUs. So far it really seems they are as close to the same as we've seen consoles in a long long time. It is highly likely they both will support the same GPU feature set and the same CPU feature set.

Assuming AMD CPU and GPU;

I think if we are going to see any major difference in the CPU/instruction set side it will be in the FPU/SIMD's.

In the GPU i think there could be greater differences, MS could push a draft dx 12 spec or something like that. I dont quite know what sony would push other then a run of the mill DX11/whatever OGL is that these days.

On the memory side it looks like it could be quite different , i assume both will want unified address space but there is memory amount and memory interconnect which very likely could be the biggest system performance separator.

Overall i think we will end up with consoles that are based on same building blocks but will have quite different configurations. In the end thats got to be a pretty good outcome, dev's have a common platform for code but then assets/shaders/etc can be scaled to suite the individual consoles performance.

I dont believe the jaguar rumors, but i guess hotchips will give us a good idea there, if they have a 128bit AVX FPU (two would have to be out of the question right?) and can scale clock/power better then bobcat and have a full blown HSA "uncore" and everything that is needed for it then it might very well be true. that's a lot of IF's.

 

[TheWretched]

And MS has a horde of Live fanatics unlikely to jump ship for an exclusive or two...

And Sony has a horde of PSN, GTx, Uncharted fans... it's on both sides of the fence, whereas the fence in Sonys court has a bigger spread around the globe, whereas MS has the court in the US and the UK.

 

[Brad Grenz]

I don't expect Live to be nearly as "sticky" as MS hopes. Having a big friends list on MySpace didn't stop people from switching to Facebook. If things like pricing, hardware capabilities or exclusive games get sales to trend in Sony's favor most will have no problem migrating en mass with their friends to PSN. If you're stuck on a 360 you can't play with people who've already upgraded, whether its to a PS4 or a 720. Nor can people who've upgraded play with those stuck on the previous hardware. A generational break largely nullifies any friends-list effect. In fact, it gives people a good reason to reevaluate their commitment to a service (especially in a case where one service charges, and the other is free).

 

[Squilliam]

If you're stuck on a 360 you can't play with people who've already upgraded, whether its to a PS4 or a 720. Nor can people who've upgraded play with those stuck on the previous hardware.

I wouldn't count on it this generation. There will be very few games which are 'generational exclusives' from 3rd parties for at least a couple of years due to cost and after that it is a moot point. I would likely assume that Xbox Live is going to be console agnostic much the same way that PC and Xbox 360 play was possible.

 

[Prophecy2k]

I wouldn't count on it this generation. There will be very few games which are 'generational exclusives' from 3rd parties for at least a couple of years due to cost and after that it is a moot point. I would likely assume that Xbox Live is going to be console agnostic much the same way that PC and Xbox 360 play was possible.

I don't think you'll see any games that are NOT generational exclusive by third parties after the console initial launch window has passed. Sales for this gen consoles and games are already tailing off. Pubs and developers have no reason to develop software that straddles the generational line, as they would invariably be not taking full advantage of the new HW, which would be the primary selling point for the uprgade in the first place.

Pubs have already been clammoring for next-gen, and rather publically so. They see a new generation launch as a means to launch new IPs and franchises on new machines that they can market as new experiences which couldn't be done on old HW. If they go and release the same software on old hw they risk giving consumers the impression that they need not upgrade at all. On a new platform they have less competition, and given that its the "high-attach rate" hardcore who are always the early adopters, pubs want to get these guys/gals hooked on their new franchises early, especially before the big name juggernauts start launching with their new next-gen iterations (e.g. COD, Halo, AC, BF etc etc).

Look at this gen, and name one single game that launched on both gens of machines and did well? There's no historical precident for it. And plus by launching a stripped down version on the old machines you also give critics a point of reference to make unhealthly comparisons between the two versions (i.e. the new version is crap because it doesn't look next-gen enough compared with the current-gen version). Outside of sports franchises like Madden, Pubs will simply avoid launching on old gen consoles entirely.

 

[Brad Grenz]

I wouldn't count on it this generation. There will be very few games which are 'generational exclusives' from 3rd parties for at least a couple of years due to cost and after that it is a moot point. I would likely assume that Xbox Live is going to be console agnostic much the same way that PC and Xbox 360 play was possible.

I think that's highly unlikely, even from just a fairness perspective. If you're playing a competitive game where the person on the next gen machine has a higher resolution and/or framerate, that's not going to go over well. Besides, the platform holders need to encourage adoption of the new platform. Straddling the line does not help that. And for 3rd parties, if you are compromising your game design to accommodate a last gen SKU, you're just opening yourself up to comparisons with competing games that use the next generation hardware fully.

 

[function]

I don't expect Live to be nearly as "sticky" as MS hopes. Having a big friends list on MySpace didn't stop people from switching to Facebook.

Switch to Facebook didn't require spending an additional $400 on a different PC though, nor did it consign hundreds of dollars of MySpace games and all your MySpace friends to the bin. Switching between Live and PSN will have a much larger set of cost and convenience barriers than moving between two free social networking sites (that you can use simultaneously on the same device).

Not that I think it's an insurmountable issue for Sony/MS to overcome, just that there's more at work here.

(Actually this getting pretty OT so we should all probably move on.)

 

[TheWretched]

Well, that implies that you buy a PS3 (or 360) now to switch... but with a generational switch, it's a new choice. You'll buy one or the other anyway... and if X amount of your friends switch, it'd be rather idiotic to stay.

 

[pipo]

Backwards and platform compatibility might be a bigger thing this time. It would mean you can still hook up with friends on the old console.

In addition to that some of my hardcore friends on Live are in love with their gamerscore.

 

[kagemaru]

(Actually this getting pretty OT so we should all probably move on.)

This. Both Sony's exclusives and Live could be great selling points next gen, or maybe the complete opposite where it's PSN and MS' exclusives that look great.

Debating on which will be the better system seller should be in it's own thread, possibly the sales predictions thread already up, not really here.