Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Rangers]

I wonder how this went unnoticed?

Seen it on GAF, this is straight from MS. Direct link on site. Credit to Jeff_Rigby from GAF for finding this.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38925109&postcount=1393

Performance target is 8X Xbox 360. Everything here was obviously early and unspecified and there are no real details on GPU and CPU, but it does give nice room for speculation.

Looks pretty fake. 64 ALU's GPU? Err...

"Straight from MS". Proof?

Also the transitioning to cloud gaming stuff, seems like somebodies fancy pants idea who knew just enough to out his fake. That's pretty ginormous strategy change if true, whereas this faker was just throwing around as many buzzwords as possible seems like.

Actually, it has 480. http://www.amd.com/us/products/deskt...verview.aspx#2

Doesn't match the "he left a zero off" theory either way.

All of that said, it almost DOES have a feeling of whiff of truth to it if you assume it's old. All the talk of a multimedia box, many cores CPU, etc.

The hardest parts to get over include the "64 ALU" GPU though. That just makes no sense. seems the faker wasn't technically inclined...he knew the 360 GPU is 48 ALU's so he went "lets add some more to that, yeah 64, that sounds like a lot! Way more!". Not realizing it's not even in spitting distance of a next gen GPU.

 

[TheD]

Actually, it has 480. http://www.amd.com/us/products/desk...6670/Pages/amd-radeon-hd-6670-overview.aspx#2

Yeah, I was thinking of the 6770.


I can also see tons of other things wrong with the doc,
e.g

PCIe IO
Having so much planed out but not knowing if they are going to use ARM or X86 (but knowing that they will run at 2Ghz!)

 

[LightHeaven]

Diagram seems pretty messy:

"Core system designed to be scalable in frequency / number of cores"

What would the core system in this diagram be? The whole thing?

 

[XpiderMX]

Licensable architecture (both for incoming and outgoing licensing)
Support for alternate form factors / devices with different total system feature set
Split Application/System Resources: Allows Title compatibility through cost reductions and different device types
Modular design to facilitate SKU updates later in lifecycle
Flexible IO: Devices change over time and different form factors. Likely 2x2 802.11n WiFi, USB3, GigE (WakeOnLan), SATA

 

[Rangers]

The more you look at it the more I cant unequivocally say the actual hardware specs are fake. Some of the rumors:

Lots of CPU power (doesnt really jive) but lots of CPU cores/threads. Lherre said it was not power PC, but didnt say what it was...so it COULD be ARM...

What the heck is "arm/x86" anyway? Is that supposed to mean it's undecided?

The GPU, it's at 1ghz. The 64 ALU's is 1.3 Xenos, but the clock makes it 2.6, plus another 1x Xenos for BC. Total of 3.6x (doesn't jive with 6-8X).

BUT, if they meant 640 ALU's and forgot the zero, 640 alu's (SP's) at 1ghz is exactly a 7770. There have been rumors of Cape Verde in it...

Even the DDR4 part is intriguing. We hear rumors of 8GB RAM in Durango, but the funny thing is the type was unknown, specifically, It was just assumed to be DDR3 cause what else would it be? Well, what if it was DDR4? Takes care of some of the bandwidth concerns. We assume of course this document was before MS bumped up the RAM spec. Now to check if DDR4 is actually coming in time for late 2013...

There's also rumors of 1-2GB of VRAM. which isn't in this sheet at all though.

Overall I'm calling bunk, there's still plenty that doesn't add up such as, transitioning to cloud gaming, pay XTV service that is supposed to launch in 2012 (well, even this was rumored to be pursued then canceled)...Plus the whole explaining away 64ALU's really=640 is just a little too easy/stretching it.

Hopefully lherre calls fake on GAF.

Probably a fake made by whoever's behind the nukezilla site.

 

[DopeyFish]

It has flash storage, pcie, 3 CPUs and 2'GPUs, flash cache, EDRam, and they expect $299 with margins? I'm trying to figure out why pcie would even be listed... This is closed system... No need for highly bandwidth limited standards designed for modularity within it

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Scalability, OEM, cellular, glasses?

This is so fake

 

[Rangers]

It has flash storage, pcie, 3 CPUs and 2'GPUs, flash cache, EDRam, and they expect $299 with margins? I'm trying to figure out why pcie would even be listed... This is closed system... No need for highly bandwidth limited standards designed for modularity within it

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Scalability, OEM, cellular, glasses?

This is so fake

I dont know why I'm defending this thing cause I dont believe it but, they dont say how much flash anywhere and it's cheap. What if it's 8GB flash storage and 2GB flash cache or something (could be even a lot more than that and still be cheap, just an example).

Of course if it's implied flash is the ONLY storage and no external mechanical HDD accesories are mentioned, yeah that's a problem.

2 GPU's also a stretch, maybe they really love their BC?

32MB EDRAM isn't expensive. No prob there.

PCIE, yeah, a problem.

 

[AlNom]

Well, what if it was DDR4? Takes care of some of the bandwidth concerns.

Not really... initial DDR4 speeds/bandwidth will be at the upper end of DDR3. You'd still want eDRAM (or some high bandwidth cache).

 

[AmFreak]

They could also mean 64 Shader-Units x Vec16 Units, what would be 2048 GFLOPS @ 1 Ghz and ~ 8.5 x 240 or the roughly cited ~ 8. But that is probably to far fetched and the whole thing fake .

 

[Ninjaprime]

I don't think its fake, but I'm pretty sure its been around since 2010 when it was in the planning stages still, hence the details like "ARM or x86" were not figured out yet. So while it is a general outline, things could have likely changed.

 

[bgassassin]

I don't think its fake, but I'm pretty sure its been around since 2010 when it was in the planning stages still, hence the details like "ARM or x86" were not figured out yet. So while it is a general outline, things could have likely changed.

It definitely adds legitimacy to the idea of Jaguar cores.

 

[Rangers]

If this presentation is real and an indication of Microsoft's thinking in general though, they've completely lost the plot.

If you want to do a set top box, do a set top box. One without costly, hot, expensive, and ultimately unnecessary video game hardware attached. Xbox is supposed to be for core games.

Too be honest there's no larger market there in core games. You have to accept it for what it is, which is a volatile, not particularly profitable business. A vanity business, really. This goes for Sony the same as Microsoft.

Probably what would bother me most, again IF this system diagram is real, is the inclusion of an entire Xenos GPU as a second GPU, apparently. That much silicon dedicated to I guess, BC, is ridiculous.


Getting back to topic though, the alleged 64 ALU GPU remains the biggest hurdle to realism here. I just dont see where/how that fits without weirdness like "it's a typo"

 

[onQ]

If this presentation is real and an indication of Microsoft's thinking in general though, they've completely lost the plot.

If you want to do a set top box, do a set top box. One without costly, hot, expensive, and ultimately unnecessary video game hardware attached. Xbox is supposed to be for core games.

Too be honest there's no larger market there in core games. You have to accept it for what it is, which is a volatile, not particularly profitable business. A vanity business, really. This goes for Sony the same as Microsoft.

Probably what would bother me most, again IF this system diagram is real, is the inclusion of an entire Xenos GPU as a second GPU, apparently. That much silicon dedicated to I guess, BC, is ridiculous.

If a lot of whats coming out of Microsoft is true, they deserve to get destroyed, in basically the only thing theyve ever been successful in outside of windows. Core gaming is all about hardware power, and if you dont have it you're going to get destroyed. Will serve them right, it's like they want to fail /rant

Ot, I could be a wrong idiot, this thing could go on to be just as powerful as PS4 and usher in Microsoft's new era of total set top box domination *shrug*

But one thing I am SURE of, it will need to have competitive power to PS4 to be successful in the video game world. If you have that, the success or failure of the rest of the ideas is independent. /double end rant

Getting back to topic though, the alleged 64 ALU GPU remains the biggest hurdle to realism here. I just dont see where/how that fits without weirdness like "it's a typo"

no they haven't because this look more like what their plot was from the beginning.

 

[XpiderMX]

no they haven't because this look more like what their plot was from the beginning.

If it is a 2010 document then a lot of things have changed, 4gb to 8gb?

 

[AlNom]

Getting back to topic though, the alleged 64 ALU GPU remains the biggest hurdle to realism here. I just dont see where/how that fits without weirdness like "it's a typo"

Well, the whole slide looks like a pile of rubbish.

 

[Rangers]

If Alstrong is right then whats the point of DDR4? Should only be more expensive.

And if we assume the presentation is real, and they plan to move to streaming games, any power complaints are moot anyway, yes? Since, 2 years after launch it wont matter...

That is unless so many things have changed since then from this document.

 

[AlNom]

If Alstrong is right then whats the point of DDR4? Should only be more expensive.

Well, there is the power consumption vs DDR3 @ similar transfer rates. Another factor (for concern back then) would have been that DDR3 was going to be at the tail end of its life, and future density developments would have been done with DDR4.

 

[aaronspink]

Not really... initial DDR4 speeds/bandwidth will be at the upper end of DDR3. You'd still want eDRAM (or some high bandwidth cache).

It will be higher than the upper end for DDR3. The initial targets are in the 2.4-2.8 range vs the EOL max of DDR3 of 2133. Right now the fastest DDR3 parts you can buy are 1866 with 2133 available through special bins or samples(aka not volume). Several companies are sampling 2133 at this moment. And of course I'm talking about actual spec'd parts.

 

[kalelovil]

If Alstrong is right then whats the point of DDR4? Should only be more expensive.

It will be more expensive and not much faster when it is first released, like previous memory technologies, but 5 years down the track it will be a lot cheaper and easier to source than DDR3.
Just look at DDR2 prices now for example. The obsolete GDDR3 inside current consoles likely costs considerably more than equivalent specced DDR3.

 

[aaronspink]

If Alstrong is right then whats the point of DDR4? Should only be more expensive.

2.4 DDR4 should have the same/lower power envelope as 1.6 DDR3. Initial release of DDR4 should also be in the 2.4-2.8. Future development of DDR3 is basically EOL with the 1866/2133 and 8gb dies being the last developments. All future DRAM development is concentrated on DDR4 for 2012 intro, 2013 ramp, and 2014 mainstream. Over the next 3 years, the volume of DDR3 will decline quite drastically as DDR4 ramps up and takes it place. For a design that will be in production for 5+ years, you want to be on the ramping technology and not the declining technology.