Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[XpiderMX]

Also I believe Raytracing and Reyes use the opposite paradigm then Sony is going for. I think they benefit more from a lot from large amounts memory then high bandwidth

What do you know about something called "transactional memory"?

Can this kind of ram help for REYES?

Can a a CPU like BlueGene/Q, some edram (32mb?) and a lot of memory, help for REYES?

EDIT: I´m not talking about next gen consoles, just hardware that help to implement REYES in real-time.

 

[Love_In_Rio]

Also I believe Raytracing and Reyes use the opposite paradigm then Sony is going for. I think they benefit more from a lot from large amounts memory then high bandwidth

This gen Sony should go for running well Unreal Engine 4: many flops and RAM. This will be the sparse voxel octrees generation.

By the way. Does Jon Olick work for Sony now?.

 

[tunafish]

What do you know about something called "transactional memory"?

Can this kind of ram help for REYES?

Transactional memory is more of a feature of the memory controller/cache subsystem than it is a feature of the ram. It's a very good way to turn complex, shared-memory multiprocessing schemes feasible and understandable. It has pretty much no use in cases where your program is more or less a pure function, like almost all rendering workloads. Think of it as a way of putting more gameplay objects on the scene (by making splitting them onto different threads easier), instead of something that helps in rendering.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

but there is also code that FPGA run a lot faster than GPUs & CPUs

Whatever you'd have the FPGA do that's faster than the CPU/GPU, you could embed in a custom chip and do a lot faster than the FPGA. You'd only want an FPGA if it needs to change its logic to handle varied tasks, needing several custom ICs to achieve the same.

 

[onQ]

Whatever you'd have the FPGA do that's faster than the CPU/GPU, you could embed in a custom chip and do a lot faster than the FPGA. You'd only want an FPGA if it needs to change its logic to handle varied tasks, needing several custom ICs to achieve the same.

I remember reading somewhere where a guy from Sony was talking about at some point it becomes better to have FPGA in your products than to get custom chip. it's a old article but they was breaking it down by the years & different numbers & saying that all consumer products should have FPGA instead of custom chips.

 

[Ika]

this needs a new meme

some old might also work: http://i.imgur.com/aLDqu.jpg

 

[Grall]

I wouldn't be surprised if God is a computer we'll invent in the future who goes back in time to start the universe.

Isaac Asimov actually wrote a short story on that very same premise many many years ago now. Can't remember what its name was, though.

Did I just argue God == PlayStation 5?

Not sure how godlike a PS5 god would be when it can be "defeated" just by yanking the power cord!

 

[fehu]

the last question

 

[aaronspink]

Whats the best technology we can hope for in a next gen console coming out in 2013 with a $500 BOM? Assuming console manufactures pay a third of retail prices.

you are looking at roughly $200-$225 for silicon with a normal BOM distribution. So you are probably looking in the range of 700-1000mm^2 of silicon best case factoring in package test and assembly(assuming nominal yields in the 60% range and a 2 chip solution roughly splitting the real estate). There is a decent amount of variability of NRE (AKA total design + mask costs which will probably be pretty high vs the volume per process generation). Also have to factor in that shrinks aren't going to be as cost effective as in the past due to NRE and overall nextgen wafer prices.

So within the budget, it would certainly be doable to do something like a 7970 + 4CU type design within that budget. The real question is what are they aiming at for an initial BOM.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

& I think the Chief Technology Officer of Sony would have a better idea of what makes sense inside of a Console than you, unless you are a CTO of a big company yourself. are you?

That's flawed reasoning. Like the CEO of a large banking group should know better than anyone else how to invest wisely. A position of authority is no proof of competance, and an appeal to such authority-by-position isn't a good basis for an argument.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

There's an FPGA discussion here.

 

[playaplayer]

you are looking at roughly $200-$225 for silicon with a normal BOM distribution. So you are probably looking in the range of 700-1000mm^2 of silicon best case factoring in package test and assembly(assuming nominal yields in the 60% range and a 2 chip solution roughly splitting the real estate). There is a decent amount of variability of NRE (AKA total design + mask costs which will probably be pretty high vs the volume per process generation). Also have to factor in that shrinks aren't going to be as cost effective as in the past due to NRE and overall nextgen wafer prices.

So within the budget, it would certainly be doable to do something like a 7970 + 4CU type design within that budget. The real question is what are they aiming at for an initial BOM.

Thanks for the reply. The original 360 had a $525 BOM cost and the PS3 had $840 BOM. I figured we might get something in between those two BOM costs. With MS and Sony charging retail costs of $499 for next gen consoles. If they can show games that look like that Samaritan demo or Star Wars 1313. I believe consumers will look at the price as a good deal.

 

[anexanhume]

Important to note a 2013 console is unlikely given no E3 reveal from either Sony or MS this year. Likely we'll see an E3 (or otherwise timed) reveal next year for a 2014 launch. MS isn't going to reveal their next console before their darling Halo 4 launches. And they're going to give devs more than a year heads up (publicly) to prepare games.

 

[lefizz]

The games are in development now, just look how barren e3 was.

Reveal will be next e3, release holiday 2013.

Nothing was said this year to avoid destroying current Gen sales.

I'd put £100 on chrimbo 2013

 

[onQ]

Important to note a 2013 console is unlikely given no E3 reveal from either Sony or MS this year. Likely we'll see an E3 (or otherwise timed) reveal next year for a 2014 launch. MS isn't going to reveal their next console before their darling Halo 4 launches. And they're going to give devs more than a year heads up (publicly) to prepare games.

but the Xbox 360 was revealed in May of 2005 & released in November of 2005, the same thing can happen this time around , reveal May 2013 release November 2013.

 

[aaronspink]

Important to note a 2013 console is unlikely given no E3 reveal from either Sony or MS this year. Likely we'll see an E3 (or otherwise timed) reveal next year for a 2014 launch. MS isn't going to reveal their next console before their darling Halo 4 launches. And they're going to give devs more than a year heads up (publicly) to prepare games.

They pretty much need to release in the next year or they risk massive user base attrition. It has already gotten to the point where the consoles aren't competitive from a user standpoint for many games. They risk wholesale defection if they wait until holiday 2014. They are also starting to see developer support erode with all new game development switching heavily to PC as primary target.

 

[babybumb]

Important to note a 2013 console is unlikely given no E3 reveal from either Sony or MS this year. Likely we'll see an E3 (or otherwise timed) reveal next year for a 2014 launch. MS isn't going to reveal their next console before their darling Halo 4 launches. And they're going to give devs more than a year heads up (publicly) to prepare games.

Nah

Sony will probably announce the new console in Q1 in an event in Japan like the Vita. MS communicated 360 six months before launch.

They pretty much need to release in the next year or they risk massive user base attrition. It has already gotten to the point where the consoles aren't competitive from a user standpoint for many games. They risk wholesale defection if they wait until holiday 2014. They are also starting to see developer support erode with all new game development switching heavily to PC as primary target.

lol, this is certainly hyperbole no matter what. PC is a distant third platform in revenue vs PS3/360/PC multiplatforms

 

[bgassassin]

A poster by the name StartSomething provided a link and highlighted some things that could be a possible explanation as to why Xbox 3 doesn't sound balanced.

http://www.computerandvideogames.co...re-detail-their-ps4-xbox-720-wishlist/?page=5

As suspected, the latest word from our sources is that Durango's "16 CPU cores" are actually logical cores, which would likely mean eight physical cores running two threads each. This brings its processing power into line with modern high-end PC specs, which might even have eclipsed it come Christmas next year. These words, for instance, are being typed on a machine with an Intel i7-980X CPU that's over a year old. It has six cores, which thanks to Intel's HyperThreading technology act as 12 logical cores.

Now consider that November of last year saw Advanced Micro Devices' "Bulldozer" technology deployed in its "Interlagos" series Opteron processors, which with their eight dual-core modules and four memory units fall right into line with this rumoured Durango spec. The current pre-beta of Microsoft's Windows 8, furthermore, has diagnostic support for up to 640 logical cores.

This kind of insane horsepower is really only useful to web hosts and other high-octane users. What a four or eight-core CPU with multithreading means for a games console is a much more efficient handling of variously demanding tasks. In a media box with integrated Kinect support, background downloading, personal video recording functionality, social connectivity and high-end gaming, the advantages become clear.

And Durango most certainly is a media box. Our sources tell us it even has a standard aerial socket in the back - a kind of integrated version of PS3's PlayTV dongle - to give it complete ownership of your TV activities. The Blu-ray drive is a dead cert, we're told, and joins Freeview, Sky and a wealth of on-demand services in being controlled by Kinect.

I keep forgetting about their multimedia intentions. Also while I don't know the amount of cores yet, what is said here is what my guess would have been.

 

[aaronspink]

lol, this is certainly hyperbole no matter what. PC is a distant third platform in revenue vs PS3/360/PC multiplatforms

as always, revenue != mindshare. All the new engines and new games are being developed on PC and primarily targeting PC at this point because the consoles have fallen so far behind that they are less powerful than a cheap laptop.

 

[Brad Grenz]

A poster by the name StartSomething provided a link and highlighted some things that could be a possible explanation as to why Xbox 3 doesn't sound balanced.

http://www.computerandvideogames.co...re-detail-their-ps4-xbox-720-wishlist/?page=5

I keep forgetting about their multimedia intentions. Also while I don't know the amount of cores yet, what is said here is what my guess would have been.

Yeah, there was never any serious threat of it having 16 physical cores. It could have as few as 4 with 4 way SMT as IBM has used. Having a digital tuner sounds crazy when OTA seems like a dead end technology. Not that I don't think MS would go there, but that's another thing to add to the BOM in addition to HD Kinect.

It actually makes me nauseous trying to think about the wrangling needed to navigate that road, building a universal entertainment box that will inter-operate with whatever broadcast standard, cable company, sat provider or ISP you have in whatever part of the world you live in. It's the same feeling I get whenever I think of what it must be like to be an urban planner.