Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[IllusionistK]

Yeah they are, and this seems a little ominous

Posted 3/14

Also implies the next console specs still arent settled. Even 2013 might be too early.

How do you quantify "far enough"? Current gen consoles are already 20x faster than the iPad 2

It'll take mobile another 6 years to catch up to where consoles were 7 years ago.

I hoping we'll see a 20nm Tahiti XT-class GPU... So perhaps a mid-range 8k.

 

[Acert93]

Phil thinks the old console model is dead and it isn't about technology (edit, this is old but relevant due to Phil's hiring at MS):

Speaking at the Develop conference in Brighton, England today he said, "I think the era of the console where hardware companies spend $3-4 billion to build a chipset and then it's supported on a tax on the software - that's the business model of the last 25-30 years - that's over.

"The new business model is going to become a combination of retail and services, and it's going to be an interesting decision for the likes of Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo, is the next console race about chips and CPU, clock speed and graphics, or is it about business models and monetization and discovery, and I think it's probably going to be about the latter."

 

[Rangers]

Phil thinks the old console model is dead and it isn't about technology (edit, this is old but relevant due to Phil's hiring at MS):

Sure right, then let him launch a bad technology console and see how far he gets

How do you quantify "far enough"? Current gen consoles are already 20x faster than the iPad 2

It'll take mobile another 6 years to catch up to where consoles were 7 years ago.

Ehh, what??

I do agree even the new infinity blade game definitely still looks a cut below 360, but just offhand I'd guess the iPad 3 is more on the order of half as powerful as PS360...plus, it at least has the advantage of twice as much RAM.

I mean it's graphics capabilities should be somewhat similar to Vita, with more RAM as well, and Vita isn't too far below PS360 by it's games.

 

[RedVi]

Ehh, what??

I do agree even the new infinity blade game definitely still looks a cut below 360, but just offhand I'd guess the iPad 3 is more on the order of half as powerful as PS360...plus, it at least has the advantage of twice as much RAM.

I mean it's graphics capabilities should be somewhat similar to Vita, with more RAM as well, and Vita isn't too far below PS360 by it's games.

Hardware wise iPad3 is almost 1/10th of the 360 for compute potential:

Xenos = 240GFLOPs
PowerVR SGX543mp4+ @ 200MHz = 28.8GFLOPs

Memory bandwidth for the iPad 2 in practice was something like 3-4GB/s, so good luck on that front too.

Fillrate is said to be 4 GPixels/s which is right on the 360's fillrate, but that's with a scene depth of 2.5, so the actual rate is only 1.6 GPixels/s. Then take into accound that the iPad 3 has a screen resolution 4 times higher than the iPad 2 and I really can't see games going anywhere just yet. The hardware will very much struggle to run games designed for the iPad 2 at the higher resolution. More likely developers will have to keep iPad 1 spec as their target, with doubled framerate on iPad 2 and 4x resolution on iPad 3.

Sure with newer development techniques and it being a closed system you can get a lot out of the hardware. To me the games look like DX8+ generation, improved last gen games in other words. Epics citadel demo really reminds me of a modernized offering using the Unreal Warfare engine, for example.

Mark Reins talk of running the Samaritan demo on a new iPad in a couple of years is very misleading. I'm sure they could get something that looks similar, but it's going to be massively cut down, especially the textures and poly count which is far more noticeable than things like tessellation and the bokeh effect used.

 

[Acert93]

Sure right, then let him launch a bad technology console and see how far he gets

It will be interesting when one of them gets cute and tosses out a 300mm^2 SoC with constrained frequencies compared to the competitions 500mm^2 total budget and a bit more memory. I know some will argue that whatever gimmick (a controller and service perks) closes the gap of the "experience" but it will be a total concession of the "high ground" and I predict that they capture 50% of the market.

 

[Acert93]

Mark Reins talk of running the Samaritan demo on a new iPad in a couple of years is very misleading. I'm sure they could get something that looks similar, but it's going to be massively cut down, especially the textures and poly count which is far more noticeable than things like tessellation and the bokeh effect used.

They will be running it in a couple of years because it (Samaritan) won't be ready until then. And when Samaritan launches it will be running on the iPad 3... via OnLive.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Ehh, what??

I do agree even the new infinity blade game definitely still looks a cut below 360, but just offhand I'd guess the iPad 3 is more on the order of half as powerful as PS360...

Maybe if measured by subjective apparent visuals, but not by processing power. Do we have any bandwith figures for the Ipad?

Off topic. Could you please in the future use the multiquote or either manually edit your posts so that it's apparent whose posts you are quoting. The one up (edit. well not one up anymore, took me some time to press post ...) makes it seem like the second quote is also from Acert.

 

[Arwin]

I'll also second what RedVi said. Of course, there are still plenty of lower profile games that the iPad should manage to do pretty well. But the iPad doesn't have VRAM, let alone EDRAM, etc. And if I see anything from comparing Vita (same GPU) and PS3 (and the Vita does have VRAM), then shading power is really quite a bit behind as well. And then the iPad still has an iOS overhead.

By the time we'll see the likes of the iPad match current-gen consoles, we'll have next-gen consoles making them look 'old' again.

 

[Rangers]

Maybe if measured by subjective apparent visuals, but not by processing power. Do we have any bandwith figures for the Ipad?

Off topic. Could you please in the future use the multiquote or either manually edit your posts so that it's apparent whose posts you are quoting. The one up (edit. well not one up anymore, took me some time to press post ...) makes it seem like the second quote is also from Acert.

So then the Vita is 1/10 the power of X360/PS3? Because it uses the same GPU as iPad3...

I just dont see that in the games. Had no idea the flops are so low. If this is true all these big name devs like Carmack and Epic running around saying mobile is near to console power have got it all wrong? Skeptical.

Screen res, agreed. I think iPad shot itself in the foot there. But then again, I'm sure upscaling will be worse than ever. If devs upscale the 960X640 Vitas, imagine what they're going to do on the iPad 3. I'm sure IB3 wasn't running at close to 2048X.

 

[Rangers]

By the time we'll see the likes of the iPad match current-gen consoles, we'll have next-gen consoles making them look 'old' again.

Do agree there.

Sorry Dr Evil, what happens is a lot of time I reply with quote, post it, then see something else I want to respond too, so rather than clutter up with more posts I just copy paste quote it in edit. I'll try to use multiquote, but the prob is on multiquote you have to know what you're going to quote beforehand

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Screen res, agreed. I think iPad shot itself in the foot there. But then again, I'm sure upscaling will be worse than ever. If devs upscale the 960X640 Vitas, imagine what they're going to do on the iPad 3. I'm sure IB3 wasn't running at close to 2048X.

Screen res doesn't matter for games. The Retina display will be awesome for text, but for games you can render 720/1080p and upscale and it'll still look gorgeous.

Mobile performance isn't a matter for this thread asking about the next MS, Sony and Nintendo home consoles, though, apart from perhaps using mobile devices as proof of viability of a mobile part in a home console.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Sorry Dr Evil, what happens is a lot of time I reply with quote, post it, then see something else I want to respond too, so rather than clutter up with more posts I just copy paste quote it in edit. I'll try to use multiquote, but the prob is on multiquote you have to know what you're going to quote beforehand

Heh well It's not really that big of an issue for me, but when you copy paste a quote and edit your old post it wouldn't be a lot of extra work to do this:

[/quote)

instead of just

[/quote)

Had to leave the error there... Like I said it's no biggie, but it sometimes annoy a bit to see my user name on top of some quote I had nothing to do with. Sometimes the quote can be total opposite of what I would say and other people might not realise the situation, this could lead to some annoying text to be forever wrongly attached to me and likely causing untold damage to the universe!

 

[Crossbar]

I'll also second what RedVi said. Of course, there are still plenty of lower profile games that the iPad should manage to do pretty well. But the iPad doesn't have VRAM, let alone EDRAM, etc. And if I see anything from comparing Vita (same GPU) and PS3 (and the Vita does have VRAM), then shading power is really quite a bit behind as well. And then the iPad still has an iOS overhead.

By the time we'll see the likes of the iPad match current-gen consoles, we'll have next-gen consoles making them look 'old' again.

I think you are right, but my question is. Will some added graphic fidelity be enough to trig people outside the core gamer community to buy the next gen consoles?

I bought FIFA12 for our iPad and payed just 7 SEK (1 US$) . It was some special EA offer, but still, just ONE dollar. The game looks glorious on our iPad2. My 7 year old son, who loves football, plays it all the time, and comes running to show me Messis fantastic goals.

I am just saying that I will find it hard to motivate the cost of a Vita or 3ds, not to mention the cost of their games. FIFA for Vita is about 450 SEK here.

In the same way I believe the next gen consoles must add something more than increased graphics fidelity to appeal to the masses. Maybe some new hi-fi motion controls could be it, but I have my doubts. I think the current controls are good enough for fitness and dance games where the volumes can be found.

I also think the pricing model of games is bound to change as well. I think it is more important than before that the console makers can supply development tools that simplifies game development to keep costs down to make the games more competetive with the cheaper lo-fi games.

 

[joker454]

just dont see that in the games. Had no idea the flops are so low. If this is true all these big name devs like Carmack and Epic running around saying mobile is near to console power have got it all wrong? Skeptical.

Remember that these guys tend to be very forward thinking, their areas of business require it. Remember when many months ago I posted something similar, to where consoles would go obsolete and would be replaced possibly by tablets or some other more must have gizmo. When saying something like that on a forum people take it as "imediately" but that's not what I had meant at all, I was thinking 5 to 10 years down the line. I suspect Epic, Carmack and others see the writing on the wall for consoles as well (again, long term).

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Blame Wii U. Yes, Nintendo will actually prolong this generation by introducing new hardware after seven years..

The point is MS/Sony are actually happy about Wii U. Even if you consider Wii U a next-gen system they will have no next-gen publisher support. Ubisoft will do some exclusive stuff just like with the Wii but thats about it. No BIG teams are working on it like with 360 in 2005. AAA teams are starting work on next-gen MS/Sony systems right about now. At best they will get the same games as on current consoles if deemed feasible for less than 10 million userbase. And even then they will get closer to 50% than 100% of games in 2013..

Can I have a look in at your glass ball?

Remember that these guys tend to be very forward thinking, their areas of business require it. Remember when many months ago I posted something similar, to where consoles would go obsolete and would be replaced possibly by tablets or some other more must have gizmo. When saying something like that on a forum people take it as "imediately" but that's not what I had meant at all, I was thinking 5 to 10 years down the line. I suspect Epic, Carmack and others see the writing on the wall for consoles as well (again, long term).

Might be true. But still I don't really see a tablet or some other kind of gizmo take over from dedicated consoles. Price/performance wise you can't beat a console and than there is the advantage for consumers (and devs!) to have one box that will last them 6+ years instead of having to keep in mind god knows how many different hardware setups, different OS, and different OS versions of the same OS.

They probably see it as future markets. Companies like ID and Epic live on building engines and tool chains, not so much on making games. One engine and one tool chain that could be used to get your games up and running for everything ranging from a smartphone to a console without having to change much would be heaven for them. They'd instantly increase there market by a couple of times.

 

[AlNom]

Wrong thread folks.

Xbox Next non-tech discussion moved to http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=61635

 

[Megadrive1988]

Wii U will NOT be using MoSys 1T-SRAM

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=466196&page=38

Originally Posted by Rösti:

Some news, MoSys' 1T-SRAM (or other technologies from that company) will not be represented in the Wii U:


Source: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890394/000104746912002721/a2207956z10-k.htm

Now, the 1T-SRAM technology licensing has changed, as I wrote here, as Invensas purchased a greater number of patents from MoSys in 2011. This may have lead to Nintendo ditching this technology. What it means for backwards compatibility, seeing as Wii incorporates the 1T-SRAM technology, I don't know. However, the secrets are starting to unfold. Now, I wonder what company Nintendo has chosen for RAM solutions.

 

[Crossbar]

Wii U will NOT be using MoSys 1T-SRAM

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=466196&page=38

Makes sense, never understood the point of having 1T-SRAM there in the first place, after the Nintendo press release where they announced they would be using EDRAM from IBM.

 

[Acert93]

Can anyone make an educated guesstimate to the mass production cost, both monetary and area/power and board bus, of the following:

(1) 32MB of Xenos style eDRAM. Would a "write only" eDRAM be faster, smaller, use less power than the below?

(2) 32MB read/write "scratch pad" eDRAM (kind of like eDRAM on IBM's power processors). It looks like on-chip eDRAM is 2mm^2 per 1MB on 45nm which would project to about 1mm^2 for 1MB on 28nm.

(3) An interposer (65nm or 90nm?) large enough for a 220mm^2 GPU and 1 - 2 DRAMs (512MB-1GB). What is the cost of a 350mm^2 interposer? What kind of speed could be project from such? What power and board complexity savings, if any, could be expected?


And a different direction of questions: What is the power draw for the Power 7 architecture?

Cores/Frequency
4   3.7   3.55   3.0
6   xxx   3.55   3.0
8   xxx   xxx    3.0

Any news on how large an 8 core Power 7 chip will be on 32/28nm? TDP? It looks to be 567mm^2 on 45nm. I have seen reports as low as 100W and as high as 200W for the TDP on Power7 (200W was supposedly an 8core variant in the 4.1GHz turbo mode).

 

[Rangers]

So, a Kepler review leaked, and I think pitcairn vs Kepler you'd much rather have Kepler in a console.

Looks like Sony jumped off the Nvidia bandwagon at exactly the wrong time. I expect a slew of "Sony is back with Nvidia!" unsourced rumors to pop up Then before you know it it'll be accepted message board fact again...just like AMD in Sony became without any sources.