Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[pc999]

Personaly I would find a bit suprissing that MS and S actually want to releasing a new console before 2014-2015 several big third partys dont want them to release, they finally have "space to breath", they just released new controls...Specially Sony

But let them come. Maybe they bring some news and new IPs too.

 

[liolio]

I think in the interests of multiplatform (i.e. PC), they just won't need to go down the many-core route (unless you count the increasingly complex compute shading post-DX11). Even to this day, PC development hasn't really taken much advantage of 8 threads, which is entirely understandable if you look at the steam hardware survey for instance. I don't think the uptake will be that much higher by 2014 either.

That would be incentive enough to have similar numbers of more powerful cores instead of going for 16+ threads. I'd be interested in a developer survey of just what they do on Cell that isn't related to making up for RSX deficiencies and just how much processing time is taken. Cell can do everything, but ultimately, there are choices to be made regarding CPU/GPU budgets, and whether or not it'd be a waste to go with a strong CPU. Hypothetically, if RSX had been a more efficient design, what would Cell be doing now, and would it have been worth it to Sony to produce such a huge CPU over the years?

In the MS GPU job-posting, they do also mention physics, and I do believe there is work with AI on GPU already. Potentially they could just pour all the budget into the GPU compute resources (and by 2014, we should hear much more about DX12), which would give the hardware some legs 5+ years later.

At that point they could just have a relatively straight-forward CPU to handle the basics of the OS and render setup. I suppose there's audio processing as well, though even a dedicated CPU core should be more than enough I would think.. *shrug*

I think it may be a bit inappropriate to label larrabee as a failure. Intel has a yearly R&D budget of over 6 billion US dollars. It made sense for them to make a physical design and try the waters further than just simulations could allow them, and to be better prepared just in case a market materialized. They got some feedback, dipped their toes, no market materialized, the thing is put on ice, lessons learned duly noted.

You can look at present day CPU/GPU architectures as a heterogenous computing platform that aims to do reasonably well on single threaded, lightly multithreaded and heavily multithreaded workloads with a bunch of hardware assist for graphics rendering. There is dedicated hardware helping each of these scenarios, rather than trying to use a single architecture/approach boosted sufficiently to tackle all problems. As long as our current approach doesn't lead to very convoluted and prone to error software, the approach is efficient. Since it is the current approach, the case is actually that our current code base supports the heterogenous architecture, so it is very, very difficult (impossible) to design a unified processor that does better from an efficiency (performance per watt/performance per dollar) point of view. That isn't necessarily critical in all areas of computing, but if you're doing $300 consumer devices to be sold in the many millions, efficiency matters. A lot.

Well I tried to answer about how throughput cores could land better results than GPU in some case and prove more useful to the system overall, blabla, anyway I gave up as GPUs may moved forwrd faster than expected. Last AMD presentation raised quiet some questions in my head.

 

[Aenima]

Well, if this rumour is to be believed, and we'll se the next XBox on E3 2012, then I'd guess a launch date in early-mid 2013 could be realistic. But that's a big if.

Personaly I would find a bit suprissing that MS and S actually want to releasing a new console before 2014-2015 several big third partys dont want them to release, they finally have "space to breath", they just released new controls...Specially Sony

I'm inclined to agree, especially when looking at something like Forza 4 and the way they use both Kinect, and achieve improved visuals at 60 fps this late in the consoles lifetime.

On the other hand, with Wii U in the market 2012, there's a new platform to share multiplatform titles with (potentially, depending on developer support), which could decrease income for the Xbox360 - three is a crowd. A new semi-advanced console with capabilites above and beyond Wii U could intice developers to (again) make "next-gen" games for the Nextbox, in the hope that Sonys next platform will be able to at least match MS next console, so art and assets can be ported to that platform as well. Basically that would mean a kind of status quo in terms of multiplatform support and the ongoing power struggle.

But I don't think outmaneuvering Wii Us hardware will be trivial, as it seems to sit comfortably in-between the current generation and the next - developers might as well use the Wii U as the lowest common denominator for their multiplatform titles and adjust their assets accordingly, especially if Sony and MS is too conservative about the hardware of their next generation. This would mean the market will be blown open, and the only one to gain anything from that situation, unless the customer base for Sony and MS suddenly goes dramatically up, is Nintendo.

Anyway, I'm rambling. A new Xbox in 2013 seems plausible to me.

 

[liolio]

Well, if this rumour is to be believed, and we'll se the next XBox on E3 2012, then I'd guess a launch date in early-mid 2013 could be realistic. But that's a big if.

Well that's almost 8 years since the 360, it might be time.

I'm inclined to agree, especially when looking at something like Forza 4 and the way they use both Kinect, and achieve improved visuals at 60 fps this late in the consoles lifetime.

The better the software now the better next gen titles are going to be. Honestly I'm more than ready for a new system. And console start to hinder PC games development as they lag so much.

On the other hand, with Wii U in the market 2012, there's a new platform to share multiplatform titles with (potentially, depending on developer support), which could decrease income for the Xbox360 - three is a crowd. A new semi-advanced console with capabilites above and beyond Wii U could intice developers to (again) make "next-gen" games for the Nextbox, in the hope that Sonys next platform will be able to at least match MS next console, so art and assets can be ported to that platform as well. Basically that would mean a kind of status quo in terms of multi-platform support and the ongoing power struggle.

It's MS we're speaking about they will make it so that cross development between PC and their BOX will be trivial. PC parts are set to deliver more than what the WiiU seems to be able off. Next AMD next APUs are plan to deliver south of a teraflops of raw power. In the mean time they will still sell discrete parts. IF either Sony or Nintendo hardwares are not competitive they will receive less rendition than the the PC/BOx versions.

But I don't think outmaneuvering Wii Us hardware will be trivial, as it seems to sit comfortably in-between the current generation and the next - developers might as well use the Wii U as the lowest common denominator for their multi-platform titles and adjust their assets accordingly, especially if Sony and MS is too conservative about the hardware of their next generation. This would mean the market will be blown open, and the only one to gain anything from that situation, unless the customer base for Sony and MS suddenly goes dramatically up, is Nintendo.

Anyway, I'm rambling. A new Xbox in 2013 seems plausible to me.

Lowest common denominator is relevant if there is no huge discrepancy in user base. From what we know N system doesn't sit comfortably in between this gen and the next one, damned it may be less competitive than llano and trinity will crush it for sure.
N is after core gamers, I can't see cores gamers drool on their system especially as for multiplat form games thanks to APU PC will be a more compelling and performing platform without special investment in a discrete 3D card.

 

[pc999]

On the other hand, with Wii U in the market 2012, there's a new platform to share multiplatform titles with (potentially, depending on developer support), which could decrease income for the Xbox360 - three is a crowd. A new semi-advanced console with capabilites above and beyond Wii U could intice developers to (again) make "next-gen" games for the Nextbox, in the hope that Sonys next platform will be able to at least match MS next console, so art and assets can be ported to that platform as well. Basically that would mean a kind of status quo in terms of multiplatform support and the ongoing power struggle.

Not sure if 3 is a crowd, even less with 3 diferent phrephicals. Anyway assuming it is.

What it seems is that many big third partys wouldnt like, and Sony will only do if it is forced to that, and invest, again so much money (not even talking that global economy is not even growing). I am not so sure that even MS think it is a good play.


BUT WHAT IF Sony decide that they are not going to release a PS4 so soon

Would MS almost alone be able to do a nextgen? with even higher production costs? would third party invest in a single console? would next XB have lots of exclusives if 3ºpartys do invest in it? would the next XB have a CoD or Fifa?
...

 

[(((interference)))]

Hmm, if MS launches in 2012 or 2013, when can we expect the PS4? A year later like with the PS3?

It'll be interesting to see if the PS4 is significantly more powerful than the 360 (unlike the current gen) or whether MS can engineer a more efficient system once again.

 

[liolio]

Not sure if 3 is a crowd, even less with 3 diferent phrephicals. Anyway assuming it is.

What it seems is that many big third partys wouldnt like, and Sony will only do if it is forced to that, and invest, again so much money (not even talking that global economy is not even growing). I am not so sure that even MS think it is a good play.

Well my belief is that due to power limit consoles (even an ambitous model) won't top high end pc rigs, so the investment won't that high especially if tech is pretty standard with few difference between all the system (including PC).

BUT WHAT IF Sony decide that they are not going to release a PS4 so soon

It's possible but risky they are no longer the leader.

Would MS almost alone be able to do a nextgen? with even higher production costs? would third party invest in a single console? would next XB have lots of exclusives if 3ºpartys do invest in it?
...

Dice so EA as well as Crytech but also Epic are already doing the investment to keep busy the Teraflops of raw power available in nowadays gamers PC. The jump may not be that high. Especially as our systems have last longer than expected. On top of it 2013 is not tomorrow.

 

[pc999]

It's possible but risky they are no longer the leader.

Maybe, but they wouldnt be alone, with both Wii U and PSVita

Dice so EA as well as Crytech but also Epic are already doing the investment to keep busy the Teraflops of raw power available in nowadays gamers PC. The jump may not be that high. Especially as our systems have last longer than expected. On top of it 2013 is not tomorrow.

Actually EA is one of the companys that didnt liked to much of the idea, along side Activision and Id recentely, among a few others.

BTW Crytek and Epic do a living by having the most advanced engines, this in days here other smaller engines are gaining recognition. They should invest more in the devtools...

Anyway, keeping the PC busy with the same games, mostly just higher IQ settings and somewhat more complex shaders in the best of times, and we all know they are the worst sellers even if they can run in any recent PC in better conditions than in a console.

They are still using the same engines, the same art assets, the same gameplay, they are the same games, but to be a true nextgen in terms of specs can they.

But what if they need to create new, even more complex art assets, research new very complex shaders/algorithms and games than can not be translated to this HW, if they can why need you a super HD console?

Maybe they will bring something new too.

 

[Aenima]

Well that's almost 8 years since the 360, it might be time.

The better the software now the better...

Well, I agree with most of your points in that post, my speculation was more in line with: if Microsoft or Sony is too conservative in their hardware efforts on the next gen, then there will be a hole in the multiplatform market for Nintendo to enter. A market, Sony and MS more or less has had for themselves this gen.
As I said, I was rambling, I definitely expect MS (and Sony) to outperform the Wii U by more than an order of magnitude, but I haven't seen the specs for the Wii U yet.

N is after core gamers, I can't see cores gamers drool on their system especially as for multiplat form games thanks to APU PC will be a more compelling and performing platform without special investment in a discrete 3D card.

Is something I question. (If I understand you correctly and you are talking PCs here) I don't think the PC market will have much influence on the console market - too many hardware specs, even outside the GPU, and the only input device that everyone can agree on the PC is the mouse and keyboard combo, which doesn't lend itself too well to offline multiplayer games, for example - and most people buy laptops which is a limit to screen size, for example (I know there are answers to that, for example wireless link, but then we are going to talk about market adoption - which is many years ahead imo). Horses for courses.

 

[stiftl]

Well, I agree with most of your points in that post, my speculation was more in line with: if Microsoft or Sony is too conservative in their hardware efforts on the next gen, then there will be a hole in the multiplatform market for Nintendo to enter. A market, Sony and MS more or less has had for themselves this gen.
As I said, I was rambling, I definitely expect MS (and Sony) to outperform the Wii U by more than an order of magnitude, but I haven't seen the specs for the Wii U yet.

I think we will be able to tell in which range the next gen consoles will be by the end of the year, when the 28nm graphic chips will be launched. Maybe we will also have final specs (leaked) of the WiiU, but I don't think XBn/PS4 will be "an order of magnitude" more powerful than WiiU and will mainly have better IQ than it (like PC to PS360 nowadays)

My guess are about 1.000 stream processors, 50 texture units and 32 ROPs for the XBn

 

[Heinrich4]

My guess are about 1.000 stream processors, 50 texture units and 32 ROPs for the XBn

My guess going in same way,i expect something like Fusion II/Krishna with enhanced bobcats + Radeon HD 6850/6870 or 6970M (all model Barts here) range.

 

[_phil_]

My guess are about 1.000 stream processors, 50 texture units and 32 ROPs for the XBn

You should make that at least twice , IMO.

 

[Rangers]

Next gen consoles are going to be so far above this gen it will be mind boggling, the visuals they will produce have not even been hinted at yet.

To our eyes everything will essentially look photoreal I think, at first.

This will be the biggest gen-to-gen graphics jump in the history of gaming.

PC's are already 10X consoles (at least, say 8GB RAM=16X XB360), and will be 40x-100x by the time next gen arrives, yet no game even begins to efficiently tax a high end PC. The jump in graphics will be almost unimaginable. It will make Crysis 1 look like a N64 game. Which granted, is no big deal since looking 10X-30x as good as a horribly coded 2007 PC game should be the minimum. Again. Crysis will look like a joke when next gen consoles are done, a very bad joke.

That's my stance, the opposite of the diminishing returns, no more high end console pessimism. And I do believe I will be closer to right.

 

[stiftl]

You should make that at least twice , IMO.

I don't think so: 6850 (which these specs are from) is at about 125W, with Dieshrink to 28nm (and smaller will not happen until 2013) maybe around 90-100W. This is only the GPU!
Power7 will be another 50W+ if the processing power should fit the graphics card.
I don't know how much power RAM needs, but 4GB (estimated) aren't for free either.
I don't think they will do a >200W beast again, so the budget is already tough.

 

[Rangers]

I don't think so: 6850 (which these specs are from) is at about 125W, with Dieshrink to 28nm (and smaller will not happen until 2013) maybe around 90-100W. This is only the GPU!
I don't think they will do a 200W+ beast again.

Starting out ~200w is eminently reasonable, though not foregone.

 

[AlNom]

Starting out ~200w is eminently reasonable

Just be prepared for big and loud units at launch.

edit: especially if they want to try and avoid RROD/YLOD.

 

[Blazkowicz]

Next gen consoles are going to be so far above this gen it will be mind boggling, the visuals they will produce have not even been hinted at yet.

To our eyes everything will essentially look photoreal I think, at first.

This will be the biggest gen-to-gen graphics jump in the history of gaming.

PC's are already 10X consoles (at least, say 8GB RAM=16X XB360), and will be 40x-100x by the time next gen arrives, yet no game even begins to efficiently tax a high end PC. The jump in graphics will be almost unimaginable. It will make Crysis 1 look like a N64 game. Which granted, is no big deal since looking 10X-30x as good as a horribly coded 2007 PC game should be the minimum. Again. Crysis will look like a joke when next gen consoles are done, a very bad joke.

That's my stance, the opposite of the diminishing returns, no more high end console pessimism. And I do believe I will be closer to right.

but we'll have a problem when creating a game will be like the Mahnattan Project and cost as much as bringing clean water and sanitation to the whole third world.
budget on the order of magnitude of a few hours of Iraq war. that will be hard to achieve.

 

[Aenima]

I think we will be able to tell in which range the next gen consoles will be by the end of the year, when the 28nm graphic chips will be launched. Maybe we will also have final specs (leaked) of the WiiU, but I don't think XBn/PS4 will be "an order of magnitude" more powerful than WiiU and will mainly have better IQ than it (like PC to PS360 nowadays)

My guess are about 1.000 stream processors, 50 texture units and 32 ROPs for the XBn

It depends on ones definition of magnitude. I read that a developer estimated Wii U to be "50% more powerful" than an Xbox360. Of course, that is pretty vague, but let's just assume a lot and say that the Wii U GPU would then equal to about 300 modern day SP (rough numbers, correct me if I'm wrong) and everything else scales accordingly. According to your estimate, that would make the next Xbox 3-4 times faster, and to me that's a level of magnitude faster (or more, depending on the internal workings of all other aspects).

I personally expect more than just raw performance from the next xbox, though. Besides the obvious advantage of developer tools from MS, I'd expect the next xboxs hardware to be flexible in order to prolong its life and detach it from the usual software upgrades. I think the time for the Xbox to adhere to a feature set of a specific DirectX version is long gone, and more or less has been this generation - let the developers find out how to use the hardware, and then just stress the direction with the hardware itself.

I don't think so: 6850 (which these specs are from) is at about 125W, with Dieshrink to 28nm (and smaller will not happen until 2013) maybe around 90-100W. This is only the GPU!
Power7 will be another 50W+ if the processing power should fit the graphics card.
I don't know how much power RAM needs, but 4GB (estimated) aren't for free either.
I don't think they will do a >200W beast again, so the budget is already tough.

I think we'll see a custom GPU which doesn't relate exactly to the PC discrete GPU. Doing the numbers game, it'd expect something like 48 texture units, 32 ROP, but 128 bit memory controller and 1200 SP, eDRAM (at least 30 MB), I'm not sure about the tesselation units, and how they'd work, but I'd expect a more flexible solution than the one on the HD5xxx and HD6xxx series, and generally a more lean chip compared to the PC brethren. Optimizations can go a long way around dedicated chips, I'd recon, if the math heavy parts of the GPU itself is programmable 'enough'. I think the next Xbox will be around for many years, perhaps even more than this generation, so having fixed function/dedicated hardware to features, that may/could be obsolete during its lifetime will be avoided.

I agree about power consumption - MS will not go near the power levels of the Xbox360 again - unless they have had the possibility to stress test the hardware thoroughly before release - and unless they've found a cheap, better, reliable and silent way to cool down such a console. But I'd guess 155-175 Watts max. with very efficient power savings features (scalable when playing less demanding XBL titles, watching movies, playing music etc.)

 

[Aenima]

Since i have no editing rights (yet), I just want to clarify this bit from my last post:

I think the time for the Xbox to adhere to a feature set of a specific DirectX version is long gone, and more or less has been this generation - let the developers find out how to use the hardware, and then just stress the direction with the hardware itself.

Meaning:
Xbox will still use DirectX (of course), but just like Xenos went beyond the DirectX 9 specs, I'd expect something similar of the nextboxs GPU - possibly thinking ahead of even the next update (DX12) in terms of features.

 

[Proelite]

but we'll have a problem when creating a game will be like the Mahnattan Project and cost as much as bringing clean water and sanitation to the whole third world.
budget on the order of magnitude of a few hours of Iraq war. that will be hard to achieve.

Aren't most of the assets created for games today much higher quality than the version used in game? They can basically use the high quality models that's in real time cutscenes in-game with better lighting, physics etc.

I would assume content generation will be further improved both technologically and economically. Maybe studios will make more use of dynamically generated content and of a shared content library. Out sourcing a lot of the modeling to India and China would also make things cheaper.