Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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Also this post is interesting:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=26403963&postcount=464
So it may be Microsoft. Trinity as CPU + a GPU. Maybe a modified Cayman@28nm..
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=26403963&postcount=464
So it may be Microsoft. Trinity as CPU + a GPU. Maybe a modified Cayman@28nm..
I can't see Sony launching something the year after NGP launch first there are EDIT ugly/awful syntax costs and even with it cheer editing power I fail to see Sony devlivering for three platforms.
Wii2 by 2012 sounds reasonable as for bigN it could make more sense to a new system out of which they would made reasonable profits than cutting its margins on the Wii (actually both are not exclusive) it's more a long term strategy to launch a new hardware.
Then there is MS, kinect is successful but we're speaking most likely fall 2012. I'm not sure Ms either consider cutting its margins on the 360 by much as the prospect may not be that good (volume would barely make up for the loss in margins or not at all).
So the fun fact about this rumours is that it makes for both hypothesis: either Nintendo launch fall 2012 either MS and bigN launch by fall 2012.
That's a rumour anyway...
Wii2 by 2012 sounds reasonable as for bigN it could make more sense to a new system out of which they would made reasonable profits than cutting its margins on the Wii (actually both are not exclusive) it's more a long term strategy to launch a new hardware.
Then there is MS, kinect is successful but we're speaking most likely fall 2012. I'm not sure Ms either consider cutting its margins on the 360 by much as the prospect may not be that good (volume would barely make up for the loss in margins or not at all).
So the fun fact about this rumours is that it makes for both hypothesis: either Nintendo launch fall 2012 either MS and bigN launch by fall 2012.
That's a rumour anyway...
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Nintendo would seem a lot more reasonable actually.
A new Nintendo box in 2k12 wouldn't surprise me, but a new MS box that quickly would.
Earliest I could see a next Xbox would be 2013. And thats based on the Halo timeline. They wont launch a new Xbox obviously the same year as a Halo for the old one.
And from what I gather, Halo 4 is in development for 360. This couldn't come earlier than fall 2k12 (as it's obviously not scheduled for this year), thus fall 2k13 is the absolute earliest you'd see a new xbox imo.
Also any combined CPU/GPU would imply a lower performance which would also implicate Nintendo.
I just dont see MS jumping into next gen anytime soon because of Kinect.
(((interference)))
Veteran
I wonder if Sony/MS secretly collude on things like release frames or amount of system RAM etc.
I mean you wouldn't expect MS to launch in 2012 if the PS4 was going to launch in 2014.
I mean you wouldn't expect MS to launch in 2012 if the PS4 was going to launch in 2014.
Its probably associated more with finances, why release a device in 2012 that most likely will be sold at a loss, instead of trying to recoup more money on the current hw for another year or two?
Given the price per wafer increases for technology at that level, even if they never shrank the chips they could achieve a very reasonable level of cost over the lifetime of a console. Maybe we reached the point where wafer costs outweigh the advantage of newer processes?
@ Next gen console, I would say Nintendo. Nintendo is the one most likely to have made a 'snap decision' regarding the next generation hardware. Im still skeptical on the timeframe offered given they couldn't validate the design in the time period given.
Say most design decisions are done, manufacturers is selected, could ~two years be enough to push a system out? I mean the people they search may just be there make sure of proper execution of the project, to pilot it. What do you think about it?
It makes sense for Nintendo as they haven't had a new system architecture for over a decade. They are ripe for a new system now, quite possibly ARM based and compatible with their handhelds for product synergy if they decide best power isn't of value to them (as it has proven with Wii and their handhelds).
How would a 4 core Krishna compare to the current XBox offering?
CPU wise, probably barely faster or even slower. There was a talk some page ago about how Bobcat doesn't even competitive with XCPU in single-thread performance.. Krishna should have an enhanced version of Bobcat, but we don't expect miracles.
On the GPU side (and rough power wise), Ontario/Zacate hit the 80 Gigaflops mark. Xenos is around 192 Gigaflops. Krishna GPU could be more powerful than Xenos, giving the more advance production process, the DirectX11 features, update technology etc.
In the end, Krishna should be close or a little "faster" than the current Xbox (not taking in consideration RAM and bandwidth).
It wouldn't solve one of the biggest problem of Nintendo Wii: the lack of good third party support.
Trinity seems a better choice for Nintendo imho. It should be considerably faster than Xbox360/PS3 in both CPU side and GPU side, and probably it won't be that much slower than Xbox 720 / PS4 (if this 2 goes for CPU + GPU die). This would allow for good conversion of third party games.
Llano GPU is rumored to be 480sp, Redwood class. So Caicos or Turks class?
Something like 640sp?
We could probably use the info we have on the 360 design & manufacturing timeline to get an idea of how rapid things can be.
So sure, two years would be an insanely huge amount of time if the design is done. If it's a cutting edge process, there will be problems with getting good yields - it's not just whether the chip works or not, but also getting chips at the desired clockspeeds (or rather, chips that behave within operational power and thermal designs). It'll take some time to experiment/optimize the chemical process as the console companies can't rely on binning as Intel and AMD do. Still I wouldn't expect that to take too long to fix with that sort of timeline (much less even 6months to a year) as they can focus on fixing these sorts of production issues instead of trying to push out chips as fast as possible.
On a more mature process, the problems should be pretty insignificant unless we're talking monolithic 400+ mm^2 chips. Then it's just a matter of ramping up production.
I remember in one of the ask Iwata talks they preferred systems which didn't have as many 'gotchas' in terms of running a variety of code where one small change absolutely tanks framerate. Now that I think about it, it supports fewer cores/threads with higher performance per core. Does that bring X86 front and centre to the playing field? I don't know enough about ARM to know how it compares under this scenario.
P.S. Where do you send the mod bribes to again?
You have to remember that CISC/RISC flops aren't directly comparable because of how the architectures handle instructions. You'd also have to consider which process node and which foundry they would use to produce the CPU.
You'd expect that the current generation consoles would linger well after the next generation enters the picture. I don't think they'd have any problems so long as they have more memory than the current generation consoles as well as enough performance to be close enough to the next generation consoles.
They'd gain a fair bit of time simply through using an X86 architecture on that front, and if they use ARM they could piggyback off early NGP development. Either way both architectures shouldn't need too much lead time with developers with respect to development kits, right?
Aren't yields also a function of voltage as well as clockspeed? It's not just a question of how many chips simply work but also how many work at the set clockspeed and thermal parameters? So if worse comes to the worse they could go with say a vapour chamber cooler initially and then spec it down to a regular heatsink/fan combo when yields improve and required voltages drop?
One burning question I have is whether they could possibly get a console out in 2011 as those rumours suggest or early 2012 even on 28nm since we now have two contract fab companies slated to offer 28nm production this year? Thats the real question since it would have an extreme bearing on what they could pack in at their desired thermal limit. Although in saying that 32nm SOI is also a possible candidate although I don't know how much capacity GF can spare to anyone who isn't called AMD!
Anyway, which node do you think?
IPC is not directly comparable due to different instruction encodings.
FLOPS are much more comparable, since these are operations.
The same would go for overall performance on a common workload, since in the end only the performance is apparent to a user.
I think the preferred option is to either drop performance or respin, if possible.
Changing the physical design of the product and the electrical design of the device involve re-designing and then validating it.
Ahh. Sorry for my ignorance.
Respins would be difficult given the lead time between the chips release and when it has to be delivered for manufacturing. Although that also depends on when they actually finish the chip relative to release. Going by the rumours however it does support the idea that this lead time is rather short.
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