How is this relevant at all?
Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
- Thread starter Acert93
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There is no reason to believe that episodic content doesn't work with a ODD based console.
How is this relevant at all?
Games will be sold and preinstalled on HDDs? The only cost effective way in the next 3 years are cheap optical discs or through downloads.
AFAIC there are only 3 scenarios for the next gen console.
A)HDD + ODD
B)HDD only
C)ODD only
With A the console may be slightly more expensive than B or C but you have many advantages over both.
With B you have to download the game which will take a long time. You also have to worry about bandwidth caps. You also can't play the game on another console without having to download it again or transferring it to removeable media.
With C you can play the game right from the disc. Load speed will be slightly slower than A or B. You can take the disc and play it in any other console. You can also sell the game or trade it in.
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Just because we had a single main distribution method in the past it doesn't mean we should still use the same method in the future. Dunno if in 3-4 years we could do without an optical drive, I hope that's the case.
For people that don't have broadband or don't want to d/l a large game there could be kiosks/vending machines that you plug a flash drive into to get the game. In 3-4 years flash drive technology will hopefully be fast enough that you don't have to wait 20 minutes to get the game on the drive.
Why not just buy the disc instead of waiting for anything to download onto a flashdrive? A disc that you could resell after beating the game etc.
Well having ODD doesn't imply that manufacturers and editors won't try to fight second hand market. It would possible for them to fight or take their share of this market but some members raised some legal issues. From a manufacturer pov having both ODD and HDD is the safest bet as they are sure to not suffer from a competitive disadvantage, from the editors pov well digital distribution must look attractive.
This gen the situation is more balanced between the different actors we see less and exclusives, editors/studio are getting bigger and bigger, the question is more if editor/studio will have enough strength to force the decision upon at least two manufacturers.
For the costumers... well I don't know how much manufacturers and editors loose through the second hand market but I guess that the amount must be consistant, it may have a positive impact, prices not going up next time around? Prices going down earlier in the game life (see Newell's comments in this regard).
Overall I agree with you ODD + HDD is the more likely option
Yes, for a console without a ODD it would be a viable distribution method but that's like saying bicycles will be a viable transportation tool if cars weren't made...why would you not make cars?
If they allow consumer flash (USB 3.0 sticks) it would take about 2 minutes for a 50 GB game if the stick can nearly max out bandwidth, still a bit too slow IMO.
Personally if I were the one who had to design a system for digital distribution of large games here is what I would do ... make every console a potential programmer. So you are at a friend who has it already and you like the game? Connect to the net, put your flash stick in (with the device ID of your console on it) and buy the game online letting the console write the game to your flash. Apart from the increased impulse buying this minimizes the cost of setting up the distribution network, all a shop needs to sell your games is one of your consoles and a contract (they would obviously get a substantial discount so they get a margin on the game).
For the people with really fat pipes and no download limits normal downloading would of course still be an option too.
BTW, about console locking ... the console manufacturers could go for a hybrid system, lock the game to a single console for offline play, but allow the gamer to play the game on any other console while it's connected to the net (also since it would be tied to gamer ID, it still couldn't be easily sold second hand).
For the people with really fat pipes and no download limits normal downloading would of course still be an option too.
BTW, about console locking ... the console manufacturers could go for a hybrid system, lock the game to a single console for offline play, but allow the gamer to play the game on any other console while it's connected to the net (also since it would be tied to gamer ID, it still couldn't be easily sold second hand).
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Silent_Buddha
Legend
A console without an optical drive would be very attractive. One less point of failure. One less component sucking electricity. One less source of heat. And most importantly. One less source of noise.
Oh and then the benefits fo faster game loading, faster level loading...
As for allowing a downloaded game to be played over at a friends place. Perhaps a method to allow time limited play on devices other than the one associated with the game.
Or better yet to just have game use tied to an account. Each account could have multiple gamertags to account for families with multiple machines (you rich people). That would allow you to take it to a friends place to play it there.
Whatever method they come up with. I'd be overjoyed if optical discs in consoles were to disappear next gen. Not holding my breath though. But it's certainly possible if done well.
Regards,
SB
Oh and then the benefits fo faster game loading, faster level loading...
As for allowing a downloaded game to be played over at a friends place. Perhaps a method to allow time limited play on devices other than the one associated with the game.
Or better yet to just have game use tied to an account. Each account could have multiple gamertags to account for families with multiple machines (you rich people). That would allow you to take it to a friends place to play it there.
Whatever method they come up with. I'd be overjoyed if optical discs in consoles were to disappear next gen. Not holding my breath though. But it's certainly possible if done well.
Regards,
SB
It doesn't take electricity when it's not running, it doesn't cause heat while it's not running and most importantly it doesn't make noise when it's not running. It doesn't preclude the game running off HD with a flash cache (after it has been installed, probably streamed in during play of the first level). It's just a distribution medium.
Assuming 2 minutes to transfer, how many of these machines would 1 store need? If they only have 1, then every customer is 2 minutes per transfer, then you can only do 30 sells per hour.
Meanwhile, if all you need is another register, you have double your previous throughput.
Open 1 more register.
Plus, it takes less than 30 seconds to do a majority (IMHO) of sales. Per register. Plus now what happens when your only machine breaks? Or if power is out for a few days? The stores don't get breaks on rent while the doors are closed.
On the plus side, this new game copier machine industry would create a lot of new jobs. Green jobs.
Meanwhile, if all you need is another register, you have double your previous throughput.
Open 1 more register.
Plus, it takes less than 30 seconds to do a majority (IMHO) of sales. Per register. Plus now what happens when your only machine breaks? Or if power is out for a few days? The stores don't get breaks on rent while the doors are closed.
On the plus side, this new game copier machine industry would create a lot of new jobs. Green jobs.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
I'm sure it would be trivial to have a machine with multiple flashers. I mean nothing prevents you from hooking up multiple USB flash drives to your computer. So in theory one kiosk containing one computer could service multiple flash drives.
Since they are only used to write to flash cards, it could be an extremely low cost machine perhaps Atom/ARM/Via based. Meaning it would be trivial to have multiple kiosks that could service multiple flash drives.
This also assuming there are no flash breakthroughs between now and whenever this is theoretically deployed.
Regards,
SB
Since they are only used to write to flash cards, it could be an extremely low cost machine perhaps Atom/ARM/Via based. Meaning it would be trivial to have multiple kiosks that could service multiple flash drives.
This also assuming there are no flash breakthroughs between now and whenever this is theoretically deployed.
Regards,
SB
Not that slow, 2 minutes is pretty doable (you can sip your latte in the meantime
I am looking forward to next gen consoles also competing on emergent content distribution technologies
Well if they can produce 64-128 GB SSD for around the cost of optical (even if it will always be more expensive) just sell it that way. I mean those USB flash is getting pretty cheap. And I think their cost follow Moore's Law of some sort. So if the price is cut in half every 12 months, 64 GB will be quite affordable to compete with optical for distribution in 5 years.
That is assuming in 5 years games doesn't need TB of storage that those hologram disc is promising.
If consoles launched earlier they can start with 16 GB or something, just like how Nintendo deals with it's catridge sizes.
Probably 1 for every ~3 simultaneous programming operations (say 4 USB-3.0 connectors per console, one used for keyboard&mouse, rest for programming).
They would also have to put a SAS connector on it so you can expand it with a fast RAID/SSD storage solution, download speed off a normal HD would be too slow to program even a single stick at 500 MB/s.
Yeah, well as I said 2 minutes is probably too much ... but expecting an affordable flash stick doing >>500 MB/s in 2 years is not very realistic IMO.
What do you do when your cash register breaks? You replace it.
This is silly.
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