How Long Until Physical Media Becomes Extinct?

[Diplo]

It seems to me the time is coming quickly when we will no longer buy music/video/software on physical media, such as CDs or DVDs. Bill Gates recently confirmed this notion when he told a conference that, "(High definition DVD) is the last physical media format there will ever be." Already we have seen the rapid growth of music downloads, fuelled by the iPod generation, and we have also witnessed Valve's Steam and X-Box Live creating a new paradigm for software distribution. Google Video and TV-on-demand technology are starting to make inroads into the video industry.

So how long before CDs and DVDs are as rare as vinyl is now? Will this bring us a new golden age where buying music and video is a simple as clicking a button on your TV or PC? Or will this create a nightmare world of DRM, endless backups and were things like sleeve and concept art is consigned to the dustbin of history? Will we end up with a two-tier society divided between those who have access to high-bandwidth and those that are forced to use the old formats, soon to be obscure as the 3.5" floppy drive? Or will be have a greater array of choice and the freedom to watch or listen to what we want, when we want?

 

[London Geezer]

Look at CD. It's as old as my granma but still used by millions of people. Eventually it will die out and decreasing CD music sales have showed this. But i think it will take a long time. Like... John Holmes long.

 

[Guden Oden]

It's not happening in the short run methinks, because people want something tangible to stack on their shelves, to show they actually got something for their money.

I wouldn't want to buy say movies or whatever that I have to stream from some internet server every time I want to watch it. What if the company goes out of business? What if people (like me) who likes to watch their movies over and over makes the compqany modify their clauses so that I only get like 5 showings for my SKR220, which is roughly the average price for a DVD over here.

I'd never be able to accept that, even if I live to reach 150 years of age. Just like I couldn't accept a world without the printed word. News papers are great because you just open 'em up and read - no need to make sure there's charged batteries in 'em, and if you drop them on the dirty floor of a bus say, it's not the end of the world, you pick it up and shake it off as best you can, then continue to read. And when you get to your stop, fold it up and stick it in a bag/pocket/whatever.

 

[London Geezer]

It's not happening in the short run methinks, because people want something tangible to stack on their shelves, to show they actually got something for their money.

I wouldn't want to buy say movies or whatever that I have to stream from some internet server every time I want to watch it. What if the company goes out of business? What if people (like me) who likes to watch their movies over and over makes the compqany modify their clauses so that I only get like 5 showings for my SKR220, which is roughly the average price for a DVD over here.

I'd never be able to accept that, even if I live to reach 150 years of age. Just like I couldn't accept a world without the printed word. News papers are great because you just open 'em up and read - no need to make sure there's charged batteries in 'em, and if you drop them on the dirty floor of a bus say, it's not the end of the world, you pick it up and shake it off as best you can, then continue to read. And when you get to your stop, fold it up and stick it in a bag/pocket/whatever.

I more or less agree with you apart from the printed word thing. I think that we should, in the future, move towards a paper-free society, both because it's SO much more convenient, and especially because we can't keep killing trees for bloody sheets of paper. Sure it will take some time getting used to it, but i wouldn't mind a foldable OLED panel which downloads the day's papers which you will be able to read on the go, then when u're done, fold it up, put it in your pocket and do your thing.

 

[Diplo]

It's not happening in the short run methinks, because people want something tangible to stack on their shelves, to show they actually got something for their money.

I'm not sure if that's true. Personally I get pretty fed up having stacks of CDs taking up loads of room, not to mentioned the few suitcases full of vinyl, cassette tapes and VHS videos I still have A lot of people are into minamalism in design and racks of CDs cluttering up the place don't really do it. What easier to use - an iPOD with your whole music collection on it or fiddling around with CDs etc?

I wouldn't want to buy say movies or whatever that I have to stream from some internet server every time I want to watch it. What if the company goes out of business?

Well, presumably you'd pay on demand, so if the company goes out of business you'd just go somewhere else. The people who actually own the movies, like Sony etc., are unlikely to go out of business.

Just like I couldn't accept a world without the printed word. News papers are great because you just open 'em up and read - no need to make sure there's charged batteries in 'em, and if you drop them on the dirty floor of a bus say, it's not the end of the world, you pick it up and shake it off as best you can, then continue to read. And when you get to your stop, fold it up and stick it in a bag/pocket/whatever.

I know what you mean, but OLED panels are getting very good - they use are non-volatile and use a tiny amount of current (and only use power when changing state).

Depending on power usage and construction they could turn out to be more environmentally friendly. Remember, all this packing we use (for CDs, DVDs etc.), is a waste or resources we could do without...

 

[Npl]

I more or less agree with you apart from the printed word thing. I think that we should, in the future, move towards a paper-free society, both because it's SO much more convenient, and especially because we can't keep killing trees for bloody sheets of paper. Sure it will take some time getting used to it, but i wouldn't mind a foldable OLED panel which downloads the day's papers which you will be able to read on the go, then when u're done, fold it up, put it in your pocket and do your thing.

I doubt it would be more convinient, if you believe it will be as durable as paper youre wrong. Just think of how a newspaper looks at the end of a day, and think youd have to reuse it. The only thing I give you though that having alot of books consumes alot of space.
Second, Paper can be recycled to a high percentage, Paper can be burnt without poisonous remains. And on top of that, Wood is a renewing source ( though its harvested/destroyed faster than it can renew in many areas - but for other reasons than the need for paper ).

 

[StefanS]

What do I expect from future media distributions channels?

A) higher quality:
So far legal sites do not use lossless compressions formats for MP3
B) less hassle:
The advantage of buying music online is that it is convenient. However, with all the DRM, etc. is this advantage is completely void. Why should pirating be more convenient than legal purchases?
C) cheaper prices:
Buying music online is at least as expensive as buying an actual CD.

As long as those wishes aren't fulfilled, I won't bother with the music shops.

 

[Guden Oden]

not to mentioned the few suitcases full of vinyl, cassette tapes and VHS videos I still have

I never got on the vinyl/VHS bandwagon, and most of the CDs I own are actually games.

What easier to use - an iPOD with your whole music collection on it or fiddling around with CDs etc?

That's a "duh" kind of question really, but what happens to your music collection when your ipod breaks, or gets stolen? Duh question again perhaps, but I just feel the intangible method of storage offers comfort MOSTLY for the provider and not so much for the customer.

Well, presumably you'd pay on demand

Well, presumably I'd pay full price for the movie if I start watching the first five minutes and then power goes out, or there's a family emergency or whatever, and I have to abandon partway through. Like fuck I'll ever accept a system like that, and neither will most everybody else either, just see what happened to divx.

Depending on power usage and construction they could turn out to be more environmentally friendly. Remember, all this packing we use (for CDs, DVDs etc.), is a waste or resources we could do without...

Perhaps, though I somewhat doubt making some DVDs and packages for the same comes to the same level as building thousands of high-performance content servers complete with hundreds of terabytes of storage, and routers/switches connecting the same to umpteen thousands of kilometers of high-bandwidth optical cables for on-demand distribution...

Besides, I really doubt OLED flexible displays will last very long. Perhaps they'll manage being rolled up quite a few times, but how well do they handle being scrunched up by mistake? Not to mention, scratches, tears etc.

 

[Diplo]

That's a "duh" kind of question really, but what happens to your music collection when your ipod breaks, or gets stolen?

What happens when your house burns down and all your CDs are an amalgam of melted plastic? At least with digtial media you can easily backup your music or store it on a network drive....

Duh question again perhaps, but I just feel the intangible method of storage offers comfort MOSTLY for the provider and not so much for the customer.

Yeah, you are right, this is the way it's at the moment. I think we are in the infancy now of digital media and a lot depends on the providers fully embracing the technology and not being so paranoid. We'll see how it goes...

I'm not convinced it's the best way forward, but I am convinced it will be the future.

 

[Guden Oden]

At least with digtial media you can easily backup your music or store it on a network drive....

Perhaps. Depends on how draconian the DRM is, and going by what has been proposed with the "secure computing" stuff, what you suggest won't be allowed at all.

I think we are in the infancy now of digital media and a lot depends on the providers fully embracing the technology and not being so paranoid. We'll see how it goes...

I only foresee paranoia increasing little by little. We take one small step here, one there. Eventually, we don't control our computers anymore, corporations and agencies will have greater access looking IN through the internet than we ourselves do looking out.

I'm not convinced it's the best way forward, but I am convinced it will be the future.

I don't see it as the future in anything but name. Like the positive connotation one would give the expression "it's the future". This sounds nothing but sinister, IMO.

We'll see. Maybe these HD DVD variants will be the last physical format (probably), but before they go out of style there will have to be some coordinated effort to create some common format for online distribution. Naturally, we should expect microsoft to be a central part of that, for better, or for worse......

 

[Frank]

The reason Bill Gates says that is simple: it's what he wants to happen. And he has a pretty good track record of getting what he wants.

The expectation is, that the DRM introduced with Vista is several orders of magnitude harder to crack than what is available right now. As an example: the DRM of WMP 9/10 is still going strong, even without hardware support but only through online validation.

Without physical media they can think up things that require you to rent stuff. Which is very good for their bottom line. But I'm not convinced all consumers are going to fall for it that easily.

 

[blakjedi]

The reason Bill Gates says that is simple: it's what he wants to happen. And he has a pretty good track record of getting what he wants.

The expectation is, that the DRM introduced with Vista is several orders of magnitude harder to crack than what is available right now. As an example: the DRM of WMP 9/10 is still going strong, even without hardware support but only through online validation.

Without physical media they can think up things that require you to rent stuff. Which is very good for their bottom line. But I'm not convinced all consumers are going to fall for it that easily.

It was only a matter of time...

Broadcast "FREE" TV => Cable/ Satellite paid TV
Broadcast "FREE" Radio => Satellite PAID Radio
Media Ownership => Content licensing

 

[Fodder]

I think it also depends on the specific media. I'm a huge fan of digital distribution for games, I think Steam is the best idea the industry has seen in years, and I see no reason to ever bother with retail when it's so much simpler to grab my games online. Over-the-top DRM might change this, but at the moment I'd much rather the likes of Steam's logging in than crap like Starforce or constant disc checks, especially since I rarely buy games that don't have multiplayer. On the other hand, I've never bought music digitally, and can't see myself doing so unless it's unavailable in hard copy. I guess a CD case/liner offers far more per square inch than a game box/manual. For video I'm undecided, mostly due to poor quality and excessive DRM on digital copies.

 

[Skrying]

A pretty damn long time.

Why? Because of the pay models that many companies are trying to impose on streaming media, and online media. Guess what, no one wants to buy something that they will have to pay for each time. Services such as iTunes work because people get to keep those songs on their iPods and can put them on back up hard drives or storage media such as DVD's. But as soon as content distrobution moves to something like streaming only, or limited play for a certain price without the option, or a over priced option, to own that material and have physical copies of it, the system just wont work.

The thing about buying DVDs, or VHS and older physical media, is that you own that without any restrictions really to how often you can play it, where you can play, it and what you can play it on. I fear personally that we will move to an age where you buy media online such as a movie, that is streamed to you but its tied to your computer/entertainment system. This would be a huge burden, especially those who like to take their movies over to a friends house or something like that.

Distrobution and content licensing are going in the wrong way. Instead of in the consumers favor they are going into a direction that simply sholves even more profits into giant corporations and studio's that seek nothing but profit while alienating their users and I'll at some point making them extremely pissed off.

 

[Diplo]

Well, just to play Devil's advocate....

Guess what, no one wants to buy something that they will have to pay for each time.

It's called "renting" and is quite popular, especially when it comes to films If the price to play is cheap enough and the technology reliable enough then it will work. After all, how many times do you really watch a DVD movie you have bought? If you pay $15 for a DVD but only watch it twice then that's not really good value regardless of whether you physically own it or not (and really all you "own" is a licence to play it, you can't do what you want with it).

The model doesn't have to work like that, though. You could either "pay per play" or own the licence to watch something as many times as you want by paying a larger fee. You would in effect be buying it and your licence would allow you to download it onto whatever hardware you own (TV, personal player, computer).

This would alleviate the main problem with owning physical media - it becomes redundant. Like I mentioned, I've got a pile of vinyl, VHS tapes and audio cassette tapes that are practically useless. If I want to replace my vinyl with CDs or my VHS tapes with DVDs I have to buy the content all over again. Surely this is the biggest rip off of all? Soon Blue-Ray and HD-DVD are going to make standard DVDs redundant and it will happen all over again. What I want to see is a system where you buy a "licence" to own a movie and then you can download it as many times as you want (in highest resolution available) so you can place it on whatever media you want. The DRM would just tie it to your hardware. If you scratch or loose the physical media, no worries, you just download it again.

That's the potential we could have. Now, it may well not happen like that due to companies greed. But, as we've seen with Apple and Google, it only takes one visionary company to redefine the way things are done by leading from the front. If someone introduces this kind of model it will be very hard for others' not to follow.

 

[_xxx_]

No way I'd ever give up my shiny cd-boxes with all those nice lyrics and pics inside.

The stuff I'll just listen or watch once (like most movies), there I'll accept streaming. But the music I like and listen to daily? No way in hell.

 

[sytaylor]

I like to play with my media.

 

[Diplo]

No way I'd ever give up my shiny cd-boxes with all those nice lyrics and pics inside.

That's what people said about vinyl LP sleeves...

 

[Guden Oden]

Vinyl was always a shitty system though with all the noise, crackles, and not to mention the constant wear each time a record was played. Anyone who glorifies as crappy a technology (if it can even be called that) can easily be called a kook...

 

[Andy]

- As long as cars have CD/DVD players there will be a need for them. Speaking of which, I'm surprised that some cars still come with audio cassette players, and they have been around for donkeys.

- As long as people need cheap, portable, unerasable backups. (large or small)

- People also still play frisbee, and need coasters for their drinks