If Xbox 360 loses, "We'll play again." - Bill Gates

[Shifty Geezer]

Ibut I'd like to point out the Japanese console/software makers never catered toward world markets or tastes.

If MS wants worldwide hardware penetration, that have to appeal to a worldwide audience, same as any other company. SE and friends are happy to produce Japanese software for Japanese gamers and if others like that, fair enough. They're not trying to attract US and European (and Australian, but not India ) tastes. They don't care too much about those markets, though will release to them if they think they can make money. Sony do care, and haven't released Japan-only software. They've software houses that produce an interesting mix of genres to appeal to all.

If the tastes of one area are burgers and you try to open up a Sushi Bar, don't be surprised if you don't get the customers. If MS only release 'American' games, they're not going to attract gamers with different tastes.

 

[mckmas8808]

Fixed!

Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.

It was due to SHORTAGES!!!!!!!!

Don't you guys actually remember this? This was when Sony was trying to squeeze in the slim-line PStwo's. Which Sony has shipped as many worldwide as MS have shipped Xbox's.

 

[scooby_dooby]

If you look at the months following Nov/Dec, PS2 went back to outselling the Xbox by a large margin. So far this year, they've sold over twice as many PS2s in NA as MS has sold Xboxs, and have done so consistently throughout the year to date, despite the advent of the PSP to boot. (By the way, have already sold well over 3m PS2 units to Oct alone - are we sure they only shipped 3m in NA in 2004?). That's the current "momentum, mindset and marketplace" in NA. Nov/Dec last year was anomolous and the margins were small - almost certainly down to Halo2 (if not also PS2-shortage related, as I believe there were wide reports of large PS2 shortages in NA at the time).

I don't know why you twisted my post into being a comparison between which has "more" momentum or mindshare.

The simple fact it did outsell PS2 during the holiday season, tells you the strength of the XBOX brandname in the US. Is it equal to PS2? Hell no. But it's extremely strong, and it's something I think people in europe don't realize sometimes, how strong the XBOX brand name has actually become over here.

 

[Diesel2]

I don't know why you twisted my post into being a comparison between which has "more" momentum or mindshare.

The simple fact it did outsell PS2 during the holiday season, tells you the strength of the XBOX brandname in the US. Is it equal to PS2? Hell no. But it's extremely strong, and it's something I think people in europe don't realize sometimes, how strong the XBOX brand name has actually become over here.

Ahh, maybe because you posted this,

and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.

 

[Tahir2]

I think what Bill wrote earlier proves even more so that it is games that sell consoles. GAMES. GAMES. GAMES.

Said that three times for dramatic effect.

 

[wco81]

Of course Gates and MS has to signal that it's in it for the long-haul.

What do you expect him to say, "If this doesn't win it for us or make a lot of money, we're bailing."?

If he did that, it would undercut the sales of the X360. Some are going to hesitate because there may not be long-term support for the platform. Some would argue for instance that they're bailing on the Xbox, whereas Sony is talking about a 10-year or more cycle for the PS2.

 

[Megadrive1988]

I wonder what Sony is going to do with the PlayStation 4 when the time comes... I wonder if they'll even have enough money to bring another console in the market.

try to outpower MS again with an advanced next-gen CELL processor

 

[Vince]

Bill's point was that in the biggest sales months, nov and dec, xbox outsold PS2 in north america. That doesn't mean they "won 2004" but it's something to be proud of if your MS, and speaks very loudly to momentum, mindset and the current marketplace in the US and Canada.

If you think about it just at face-value as you did, then MS won; but Sony was transitioning from the 50K series to the new slim PStwo during those months and there was a pretty nasty shortage due to Sony bleeding down the supply in the channels. For example, C|Net's headline was:

"PlayStation 2 shortage rattles shoppers"​

I don't really consider it a win, not even to speak towards the concept of "momentum," when your competitor is shifting to a vastly higher profit product and selling every unit/sold out of a 4 year old, $150, console which is selling in for $350 on Amazon Marketplace and $750USD equivalent in the UK. (Link)

EDIT: I was just going to post about who was going to be the first to post the quisi-Cell Roadmap, but MD beat me to it.

 

[Megadrive1988]

I think Sony are playing the long game. A much longer game than MS. I figure Sony expect MS to play a third hand.

The painful and expensive shift to CELL will come into it's own in 8 years time.

I expect Sony to scale up the Playstation 4. It won't be a new console at all, just a PS3 with more CELLS. They should reap major economies of scale, die shrink, and all those other things about Chip manufacturing which goes over my head.

People with a PS3 will be able to upgrade the console to a PS4 by buying an add-on.

Blu-Ray will still be the format of choice. Without a major shift in display devices there is no need to go to a new format.

The adoption of 360 and PS3 will be slower than with the present generation. We are reaching the point of diminishing returns for the mass market consumer. You need a HDTV to enjoy these new consoles, that will make the adoption rate much slower.

On a SD TV the difference between the current gen and next gen is not great enough.

The PS2 still has to hit the $99 price point.

Once the Hardcore have all bought their next-gen consoles, sales will be very hard to come buy.

For me the next-gen is like High End PC gaming, DVD-Audio and Laser Discs - a niche market for commited enthusiasts.

Mr Massmarket will stick with his current console for 3 - 4 years.

The situation in Europe is even more conservative, going from 575i PAL to 720p is not the same leap as crappy 480i NTSC. HDTV will struggle to take hold in Europe for a long time. House sizes are much smaller and screen sizes above 32" are rare. HD TV really shines at sizes above 32".

In Japan we have the opposite situation. The next gen is needed more than ever to grow the market. But it is there that the Nintendo Revolution will probably have the greatest disruption effect. The Japanese culture prizes innovation over raw power. Both MS and Sony could find themselves on the receiving end of this paradigm shift.

Very happy to be proved wrong about my assumptions about the adoption of new technology. It will be interesting to look back in 2 years time and see if MS have shifted a significant number of 360s worldwide.

PS3 will not be upgradable into PS4. it is almost impossible in every way, including technically. PS3 will not have the bandwidth or architecture to support PS4 CPU and GPU.

 

[mckmas8808]

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=632599

try to outpower MS again with an advanced next-gen CELL processor

This man speaks the truthess.

 

[Inane_Dork]

WHY THE HELL DID YOU WROTE THAT!?

I don't know why he write that either.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Ahh, maybe because you posted this,

Ahhhh maybe you should learn how to read?

I said this shows the level of momentum and brand awareness that the XBOX posesses in the NA market. No more, no less, don't blame me if you read more into my words than what I've written.

The mere fact that it even surpassed PS2 is a feat in itself, and should silence once and for all those poster who insist on maintaining the position that XBOX a failiure, far from it.

If someone had've said back in 2001 that 3 years later XBOX would outsell PS2 for the biggest two months of the year in NA they would've been laughed at.

Shortages is a convenient excuse, but there was no real PS2 shortage, if you wanted one you could get one.

I just see people in denial and rationalising, "Oh well that's when Halo came out" or "Oh well PS2 had shortages you see"....whatever....excuses aside this shows that the XBOX brand is a very close 2nd in NA which is much more than most people here give it credit for.

 

[mckmas8808]

Shortages is a convenient excuse, but there was no real PS2 shortage, if you wanted one you could get one.

I just see people in denial and rationalising, "Oh well that's when Halo came out" or "Oh well PS2 had shortages you see"....whatever....excuses aside this shows that the XBOX brand is a very close 2nd in NA which is much more than most people here give it credit for.

For real scooby there was a PS2 shortage then. BUT, at the sametime I agree with you that being MS selling more Xboxes than Sony could PS2s in those two months does mean ALOT!!

Xbox is FAR FAR FAR from a failure. Just don't take those two months to your head and think more of it than it is.

 

[drpepper]

Scooby, those 2 months were an anomoly... Why? Cause Halo 2, its release was enough to spur a spike in Xbox sales. After those months though the Halo 2 "halo" effect was over.

It's easy to point out outliers in a statistical sample, but its the overall trends that speak out.

 

[Helstar]

Will X360 continue to expand MSs market share as a percentage of the total market? Most likely, yes.

Everything is happening to Microsoft SHRINK their market share.

-PS3 is as easy as X360 to program for (while Xbox1 was way ahead of PS2 in this point);
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
-PS3 is today more expected and more well known than PS2 in 1999;
- The top3 games from these 18 X360 games do not look or fell any better than 2004 PC games, so gamers could NOT see next gen in these 18 titles... they now KNOW Next Gen is yet to come in 2006.

 

[Bill]

-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);

I thought this didn't matter?

Anyway, we dont know that yet.

 

[<nu>faust]

what is going on woth these forums lately,in just one week(i'm wondering if this has to do with 360 launch?) beyond3d forums turned in to other gaming forums which has hundred something obsessive teenager yelling ps3 wil Ownzzz,doWn with TeH ms/sonYY to each other.Fan boyish childish comments,pointless polls&threads everywhere lately?!!! What happened to respectful,intelligent arguments ppl?!?

 

[lip2lip]

I feel this is a valid point:

microsoft feels it can capture atleast 51% of home (usa) market with 360, and wish to start laying ground for new 3rd gen box. life cycle for xbox is 4 years, may be demand and short life cycles (relative) forces microsoft to make comittments now.

 

[dukmahsik]

Everything is happening to Microsoft SHRINK their market share.

-PS3 is as easy as X360 to program for (while Xbox1 was way ahead of PS2 in this point);
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
-PS3 is today more expected and more well known than PS2 in 1999;
- The top3 games from these 18 X360 games do not look or fell any better than 2004 PC games, so gamers could NOT see next gen in these 18 titles... they now KNOW Next Gen is yet to come in 2006.

- wrong
- not proven
- wrong

 

[AlphaWolf]

Everything is happening to Microsoft SHRINK their market share.

-PS3 is as easy as X360 to program for (while Xbox1 was way ahead of PS2 in this point);
-PS3 is WAY more powerfull than X360 (more than XBOX is more powerfull than PS2);
-PS3 is today more expected and more well known than PS2 in 1999;
- The top3 games from these 18 X360 games do not look or fell any better than 2004 PC games, so gamers could NOT see next gen in these 18 titles... they now KNOW Next Gen is yet to come in 2006.

You are basing this on what information?