MS only to ship 4.5-5.5 million by June 2006

[mckmas8808]

Hold on there cowboy. How many companies have ever had 6 million consoles out within 5 months? None? All we know is sony says there will be 6 million. It's gonna be quite the feat to pull off, so we'll see.

Well of course things can change. Sony may actually only sale 3 million consoles in the first six months. But I'm only going by what each company is telling us. Sony is saying 6 million by March something and MS is telling us 4.5-5.5 million by June something.

And I'm guessing expletive's 10-12 million comes from the 4.5-5.5 million that MS used and then just adding 1/2 of a year on to that. So, he's also taking MS at their word as am I.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

It's a pretty safe bet that the numbers in March 07 will be something like this:

X360 - 10 million
PS3 - 5 million
Wii - 3.5 million

With Halo 3/Halo movie on the way right after that it's a pretty good scenario for MS. I still think Sony can win it world-wide, but I'm doubting they can pass MS in the US.

 

[dragoon]

I didn't just post the pic.
Ok, it's true that cores are selling worse, but it's a freaking 100€ off the price just a few months after the release!
The full version is selling for about 350 (50€ off, as I stated in that post) normaly - there you have your evidence: http://www.geizhals.at/deutschland/a151339.html
loceal stores offer sometimes bigger rebates. ppl have seen premiums selling for around 300€ (the targeted price of the core). But the normal price is about 350 right now. Why bother lower the price when the console is selling like hotcakes?..
The situation is nowhere near as desperate as in japan, but nonetheless it's still bad.

the same is true every other videogame console as well (all of them are selling below ERP according to the website you have quoted:

PlayStation 2 @ 129 (instead of ERP € 149): http://www.geizhals.at/deutschland/a123325.html
PlayStation 2 + Buzz @ 129 (instead of ERP 179): http://www.geizhals.at/deutschland/a162947.html
GameCube + Mario Kart @ 89 (instead of ERP € 99): http://www.geizhals.at/deutschland/a80377.html
PSP Value Pack + Game @ 225 (instead of ERP € 249 without game): http://www.geizhals.at/deutschland/a158436.html

 

[dukmahsik]

It's a pretty safe bet that the numbers in March 07 will be something like this:

X360 - 10 million
PS3 - 5 million
Wii - 3.5 million

With Halo 3/Halo movie on the way right after that it's a pretty good scenario for MS. I still think Sony can win it world-wide, but I'm doubting they can pass MS in the US.

I see by march 07

360 - 9 million
PS3 - 5 million
Revolution (refuse to use Wii) - 3 million

 

[Powderkeg]

I see by march 07

360 - 9 million
PS3 - 5 million
Revolution (refuse to use Wii) - 3 million

So, you think the 360 will sell 5-5.5 million units by June, but they won't be able to sell another 4 million units over the next 9 months, even though the holiday shopping season is part of that time frame?

ARE YOU NUTS?

You are basically saying MS won't be able to sell more than 500k systems world-wide through Christmas. They could double to triple those numbers in the US alone during the holiday.

 

[mckmas8808]

So, you think the 360 will sell 5-5.5 million units by June, but they won't be able to sell another 4 million units over the next 9 months, even though the holiday shopping season is part of that time frame?

ARE YOU NUTS?

You are basically saying MS won't be able to sell more than 500k systems world-wide through Christmas. They could double to triple those numbers in the US alone during the holiday.

Well I guess he is factoring in the new competiton too. A new Revolution and PS3 will hinder the X360's sales for sure. It's inevitable.

 

[dukmahsik]

So, you think the 360 will sell 5-5.5 million units by June, but they won't be able to sell another 4 million units over the next 9 months, even though the holiday shopping season is part of that time frame?

ARE YOU NUTS?

You are basically saying MS won't be able to sell more than 500k systems world-wide through Christmas. They could double to triple those numbers in the US alone during the holiday.

oh I like to be conservative with estimates then be pleasantly surprised

 

[Powderkeg]

Well I guess he is factoring in the new competiton too. A new Revolution and PS3 will hinder the X360's sales for sure. It's inevitable.

RIIIIGGGHHTTTT

A very supply limited PS3 and a console that only appeals to established Nintendo fans is going to cause MS, who will have no supply problems whatsoever, to actually have less sales in the holidays than it does right now.

You do realize that the Xbox averaged 2-3 million sold in November and December alone, right? Are you suggesting that the 360's sales will actually be 50-75% less than the original Xbox?


Or are you just arguing with me for the sake of arguing with me, and who cares how poorly thought out your point is?

 

[dukmahsik]

RIIIIGGGHHTTTT

A very supply limited PS3 and a console that only appeals to established Nintendo fans is going to cause MS, who will have no supply problems whatsoever, to actually have less sales in the holidays than it does right now.

You do realize that the Xbox averaged 2-3 million sold in November and December alone, right? Are you suggesting that the 360's sales will actually be 50-75% less than the original Xbox?


Or are you just arguing with me for the sake of arguing with me, and who cares how poorly thought out your point is?

Powder you do have some points... what do you think the numbers for each system will be in March 07?

 

[Powderkeg]

Powder you do have some points... what do you think the numbers for each system will be in March 07?

I think they'll hit the 10 million mark by the end of 2006. If they hit the 5 million by end of June (Low end of current projections), 2 million between June and end of October, and 3 million over the hollidays world-wide is realistic. 2-3 million sold world-wide in the 3 months following, so end of March would be 12-13 milllion.

And that's if it only stays on pace with the original Xbox. If demand is better and MS can meet that demand with the supply, they could possibly sell as many as 15 million systems by end of March, but I wouldn't put money on it.

 

[dukmahsik]

I think they'll hit the 10 million mark by the end of 2006. If they hit the 5 million by end of June (Low end of current projections), 2 million between June and end of October, and 3 million over the hollidays world-wide is realistic. 2-3 million sold world-wide in the 3 months following, so end of March would be 12-13 milllion.

And that's if it only stays on pace with the original Xbox. If demand is better and MS can meet that demand with the supply, they could possibly sell as many as 15 million systems by end of March, but I wouldn't put money on it.

if GOW, too human, viva pinata, and company really make a splash at E3, then 10 million by end of this year could happen

 

[EndR]

Adding more fuel to this fire, don´t know if this have been posted already.

May 01, 2006
The Chinese-language Apple Daily reports that Wistron aims to ship 5-6 million Xbox 360 game consoles in 2006. Company chairman Simon Lin, however, stressed that Wistron currently has no capacity expansion plan for game console assembly.
In related news, Wistron reported a first quarter earnings per share (EPS) of NT$0.4, according to a Chinese-language Central News Agency (CAN) report.

http://www.emsnow.com/npps/story.cfm?ID=18970
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This is only one foundry. Flextronic and celesticas numbers are not included here.
If MS can muster out some must have games after summer and have a interesting price, then I don´t see any problem with reaching 10+ million sold (or shipped or what ever number they want to play around with)

 

[expletive]

Adding more fuel to this fire, don´t know if this have been posted already.



http://www.emsnow.com/npps/story.cfm?ID=18970
-------

This is only one foundry. Flextronic and celesticas numbers are not included here.
If MS can muster out some must have games after summer and have a interesting price, then I don´t see any problem with reaching 10+ million sold (or shipped or what ever number they want to play around with)

I wonder what the others produce and how many MS would have counted 'in the can' going into 2006, maybe 2 million built as of Jan 1, 2006?

 

[scooby_dooby]

I wonder what the others produce and how many MS would have counted 'in the can' going into 2006, maybe 2 million built as of Jan 1, 2006?

The Dean Takashi article confirms OXM's number of 120k/week for the first 2. Celestica we don't know.

 

[liolio]

first, back in the ps1 day's, i think the IQ advantage( in 3d departement) of the ps1 over the saturn was a advantage nobody have talk in this thread.
It help a lot the PS1, I choose ps1 over saturn for this reason.
At the start game library wasn't that much of a issue.

My guess for Sony is somewhere between 4.5 and 5+ millions units by March.

For Ms depend if the 4.5/5.5 millions goals for june is achieve.
If not Xbox360 can be seen by consumer as a loosy system.

What I would consider :

1 The core is a good point for Ms.
299 $ (or slightly less if Ms feels thing 're going well and decide to take more loss) and a healthy game library can attract causual gamers very early (ie chrismass 2006 early in a console life cycle).

2 Ms is likely to have no suppies probleme at this time.

3 quality of the games will be very important.
Ms and sony have both a lot of editor support. Casual gamers don't give a shit to brand fidelity. If both system are on part, Ms will sold all the unit they can supplie (sony will anyway, supplie is more likely to be an issue for Sony).

4 Piracy will be an issue, if say xbox360 security is broken at the time Ms have say a 10+millions user base, this will attract lot of players (at this time game library will be healthy and 10+millions is a good base for p2p). Sorry but lot of my friends buy PS2 becauseof this: lot games, user >>easy piracy...(anyway not a good news for gamers in regard of dev cost, but a NON negligible factor in my opinion. (can be the same for ps3)

5 price of ps3 is not an issue at this time no matter what.

6 Xbox fail in Europe, what will be the PS3 supplies for europe at fall 2006...
My guess not a lot... Will european will wait till at least spring 2007?
My guess quality of game PS3 will have to be more than "barrely distingible" . This is worse in NA.

7 Sony will sellin Japan no matter what.

8 If consumer show a REAL interest for hdtv (and so bluray) Sony have a real technical advantage on MS.

9 XNA is a VERY smart move for MS, I think a lot of people here will change their mind when Vista will be out (2007+). even with say 25/30% market share in console business Ms will still be in good situation while discuting with editors.

10 Ps3 still have an advantage in first party editors, but Ms work in the good way.

11 Ms try to push new franchise, XXX17 can be borring at a time.

It's a lot of factors, too much for me in fact. Anyway I can see valid comparision between Xbox360 and dreamcast (nor that much with xbox in fact).

In the end, Sony will win this time with a confortable margin If anything go right (supplies, non defectives units a start, etc...)
Hence, Ms can gain a lot of market share, and anyway Ms is likely to gain some (my opinion). If ms gains lot of market share (understand make lot of money) they will crush Sony next round they will accept loss per unit that Sony can't stand and they don't want to take at this time (4B with xbox1 is enought at this time lol).

Shortly, I think Sony shows lot of confidence but knows that it has a hell lot of pressure above its shoulders...
(as a whole compagny even a half ps3 succes can be good cause it still mean a BR succes, but still not a good news for game division).

 

[J_Saint]

Microsoft Updates Shipment Numbers: 3.3 million Xbox 360s Have Shipped

In April, Microsoft said it had an "inventory surge." Celestica, its third contract manufacturer, has ramped up its factory. So it seems that Microsoft has managed to ship many more units in the month of April to get to the number that Baker said. I believe the 3.3 million is the number sold through, not shipped in. In any case, both of those numbers shouldn't be that far apart because the 360s are still flying off the shelves.

When will we get the NPD numbers for April?

 

[one]

It seems the much-awaited April sales data of Xbox 360 has been out.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=9326

NPD data also revealed that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. to date were 1.5 million units, and Xbox 360 software sold very well in April (a tie ratio of over 4). However, Wedbush Morgan notes: "Over the succeeding several months, we think that it is possible (even likely) that software attach rates will be around 3 units per Xbox 360 hardware unit sold, particularly as the release dates for many key sequels appear on the horizon."

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Isn't that kinda low for the targets? 1.5 million in NA (or is that actually US?) can't mean much more than 2.5 million worldwide, maybe 3. 3 million in six months including Christmas, they need a sudden pick up. Though of course they had supply issues didn't they. I guess it's the next couple of months we really see what demand for XB360 is.

 

[mckmas8808]

Isn't that kinda low for the targets? 1.5 million in NA (or is that actually US?) can't mean much more than 2.5 million worldwide, maybe 3. 3 million in six months including Christmas, they need a sudden pick up. Though of course they had supply issues didn't they. I guess it's the next couple of months we really see what demand for XB360 is.

Yeah I think between June-October the X360 will start to really sell big in EU and NA. Hopefully for MS sake they have at least 6 million units sold worldwide before the PS3 and Wii hit stores.

 

[pipo]

1.5 million in NA (or is that actually US?) can't mean much more than 2.5 million worldwide...

It's US. I think they'll make their summer 5M target, as they were talking about it a lot last week, but another 5M before the PS3 launch seems like a lot...

End of this year is another story, but Moore said 'before the others launch'. It would surprise me.