Switch 2 Speculation

[cheapchips]

Regarding UFS 3.1, it would be great to have it as it's a better solution vs eMMC in all aspects but cost.

I'd imagine the target for internal storage speed will be the cheapest possible that can keep up with their cartridge solution. They could push XtraROM to 400Mb/s I think, or guess a lot more than that if they moved to NAND XtraROM. Cost though!

 

[Newguy]

Storage is a curious one. What's the cheapest thing Nintendo can go for these days and have some sort of current gen parity? Steamdeck's getting away with eMMC and SD cards for now, so maybe they'll do the same? There's not much in the way of games designed for current gen console storage though.

I'm hoping they go for 2x lanes of UFS 2.1, 128GB (or better!) instead of eMMC for next gen as it's the slowest UFS offered by Kioxia (formerly Toshiba's flash division, used in Switch) or Samsung who apparently offer a large variety. Max sequential reads are about 3x eMMC 5.1 (400MB/s vs 1200MB/s roughly), 1.5-2x seq. writes (150MB/s vs 250-300MB/s depending on sources) and about 4x IOPS (10k vs 40k both read & write). Maybe they view eMMC as "good enough" and can save there which wouldn't surprise me but it'd be nice to have, although if they do that I hope they significantly upgrade other areas to partially compensate

UFS 3.1 roughly doubles 2.1 speeds in everything except seq. writes which are 4x (1200MB/s) for reference

 

[Syferz]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638028930199465984

T239 "Drake" looking like it is indeed Samsung 5nm, meaning higher clocks than Orin, in line with what I discussed recently should be possible.

 

[stiftl]

Do we know anything that is on Samsung's 5nm LPP? Snapdragon 888 was on LPE for example.

 

[Father_Murphy]

That rumor fizzled quickly....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638354915344138241

 

[fehu]

what?

 

[Syferz]

That rumor fizzled quickly....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638354915344138241

It's definitely interesting, because we know it wasn't canceled, the chip is alive and well inside the public linux kernel and is already physically complete for about 6 months now, so I wonder where they got 5LPP for T239 from, because if they heard it, anyone can lie, but if they saw T239 was 5LPP, that would just be what it is. The leaker has an extensive background being correct from what I've uncovered, still trying to find a leak they flat out were wrong about, but maybe someone else can help me? It's a Samsung/mobile leaker. Also, inside of the Nvidia hack from last year, GPU drivers initializes with Samsung as the foundry.

 

[Syferz]

It's definitely interesting, because we know it wasn't canceled, the chip is alive and well inside the public linux kernel and is already physically complete for about 6 months now, so I wonder where they got 5LPP for T239 from, because if they heard it, anyone can lie, but if they saw T239 was 5LPP, that would just be what it is. The leaker has an extensive background being correct from what I've uncovered, still trying to find a leak they flat out were wrong about, but maybe someone else can help me? It's a Samsung/mobile leaker. Also, inside of the Nvidia hack from last year, GPU drivers initializes with Samsung as the foundry.

After talking with him directly, basically Drake is/was 5LPP, but the place where he got the info, the info for it disappeared, which he assumes means it was canceled.

 

[Father_Murphy]

Meanwhile, for what it is worth, Orin Nano (presumably a close cousin to T239) is shipping to reviewers now. Per Nvidia. Tom's Hardware has one as well. Also, Hackaday.

 

[stiftl]

Very good. So I guess we will have die pics soon enough. Could be (at least I hope so) a salvage chip of the full T239 and the Switch 2 will get 8 CPU cores and 1536 ALUs. Also interesting it has a 128 bit memory LPDDR5 interface. Hope we will see at least LPDDR5-3200 in the Switch 2.

 

[pharma]

 

[Inuhanyou]

The price is quite amusing for what it gives

 

[Pressure]

The price is quite amusing for what it gives

In what way amusing?

 

[Inuhanyou]

In what way amusing?

Amusingly interesting

 

[troyan]

Its a development kit with software and support. It is not for production.

 

[GuardHei]

The biggest problem for a hybrid console like Switch is that its performance will be forevered dragged down by the handheld form. The thermal design, the mass distribution, size, battery life, all of these have to give ways to a handheld console (and switch is already hitting the limit of being a "portable" console.
I was really upset when I got the old switch model and it could only run Breath of the wild for a little more than one and an half hour.
The other concerning factor is how Nintendo's first parties can keep up with the growing graphics demand. They spent a whole WiiU life cycle to finally get used to HD game production and I don't know what they gonna do if the costs for art/animation grow way higher -- especially for games like Zelda which is know for "hey the game doesn't look fun as in the current status, let's start the dev process again"
But anyway, I'm looking forward to a new open world Mario game, with a larger map than Bowser's fury and more stable framerate.

 

[Pressure]

I just upgraded to the Nintendo Switch OLED, so you are welcome if they announce the next generation in a few weeks time

 

[Chiimaero]

I just upgraded to the Nintendo Switch OLED, so you are welcome if they announce the next generation in a few weeks time

Seems you'll have plenty of time to enjoy your OLED Switch:
- no new leak regarding the new hardware (or maybe not, see last point)
- no hint a new hardware will launch this FY during last investors meeting (we still have to wait for the official translations and all though)
- Sharp just said they are planning to launch pilot LCD panel production line for a new unannouced console this FY (it's almost guarantee to be the next Nintendo console)

So... H2 2024 seems likely, Q4 2024 seems even most likely.
That's a good news for you And that's also a good news for the hardcore Nintendo fans that really want the new Switch: at least it's mostly secured to be out in 2024 (and not later )

It also means the Drake SoC would still be pretty good by the time the console launches. Also opens the door for a better process node than the initially anticipated Samsung 8nm (TSMC 4N maybe? )
And it also means we'll get 15 months or so of Switch games. I still expect MP4 and a few remasters to be part of what would be a near perfect Switch library.
Time will tell, and the next Nintendo direct may come with a lot of surprises.

 

[orangpelupa]

The biggest problem for a hybrid console like Switch is that its performance will be forevered dragged down by the handheld form. The thermal design, the mass distribution, size, battery life, all of these have to give ways to a handheld console (and switch is already hitting the limit of being a "portable" console.
I was really upset when I got the old switch model and it could only run Breath of the wild for a little more than one and an half hour.
The other concerning factor is how Nintendo's first parties can keep up with the growing graphics demand. They spent a whole WiiU life cycle to finally get used to HD game production and I don't know what they gonna do if the costs for art/animation grow way higher -- especially for games like Zelda which is know for "hey the game doesn't look fun as in the current status, let's start the dev process again"
But anyway, I'm looking forward to a new open world Mario game, with a larger map than Bowser's fury and more stable framerate.

Additional gpu in the dock is still not out of question right?

Anyway, nowadays APUs are very scalable. So the more cooling solution you can provide (e.g. Via a dock), the faster it'll be, and in substantial enough amount.

 

[cheapchips]

Additional gpu in the dock is still not out of question right?

I'd say it is. Makes the whole system too expensive or a separate dock too expensive.