The next Nintendo hardware? [2021-09]

You say that, but Mario Kart 8 was still the #6 best seller in August's NPD. Animal Crossing was still 14th. 3 years after launch on NSW, Super Smash Bros is #11. Pokemon was 15, Super Mario 3D World was 17, Super Mario Party was 20, Zelda was #7.

I mean 9 of the top 20 NPD titles for Aug. 2021 were made by Nintendo. And you can only play them on the NSW. And NSW sales are still increasing year over year. So obviously something is selling those systems and if it's not the games that Nintendo are making ... uh, then what is? :)

Just to drive that home. Nintendo are selling more games than EA or Activision or UBIsoft or any other game publisher. And there's only one console you can play those games on. Does it matter if these are all games in long standing IPs if the games continue to outsell games made by all other publishers?

The Wii was an obvious fad. It peaked on year 3 and then declined. NSW is over 4 years old and still hasn't peaked. It's already surpassed lifetime sales of the PS3 and X360 in roughly half the amount of time. It'll likely surpass Wii lifetime sales this year. It'll likely surpass PS1 and PS4 lifetime sales next year.

The reason the NSW continues to sell strongly is that unlike the Wii, it's not relying on a gimicky and not terribly accurate control gimmick (motion controls). Basically the system doesn't die once people get over the novelty of the control scheme.

I mean, I had a Wii ... that I almost never used. I have an NSW that gets a ton of use.

Regards,
SB

At the same time mario kart 8 was on the wii u and so were multiple zelda titles. How did the wii u do ?

The switch is like the wii , it was able to get into the main stream because of a unique feature. But that doesn't mean a new system will have the same effect. Just because you can only play nintendo games on a nintendo system doesn't mean people will go out and buy it.

As for the games , like I said people bought them on the switch and now own them. What about a new mario kart will get people to want to buy new hardware for it ? The wii u had all the types of nintendo games that the switch has but it didn't seem to help it. Just saying that this thing was successful so this thing will be too doesn't work. Look at sony's transition from the 150m selling unit system to the 80-90m selling ps3 and the huge losses they accumulated to get to that point . You can look at nintendo , the insane success of the nes followed by the snes didn't mean the n64 was a success , it sold less than both of them and then the gamecube tied with microsoft for third place. But that failure didn't cause the wii to fail as it was a huge success that lead into the failure of the wii u. MS failed with the xbox , saw massive success with the xbox 360 and then failed with the xbox one.

Now look at the playing field out there. When the switch launched it was the only portable system out there and you can dock it to your tv to play. Now MS has xcloud. People in that ecosystem can use their phone , laptop , tablet and desktop to play games anywhere at anytime giving you a well rounded experience. In the portable world x86 switch like portables are becoming popular . We have the steam deck hitting later this year there will be 95 million ( as of 2019) people who have a library of various sizes that can just take it on the go. Then who knows what else will be released between now and a new Nintendo console.

Compound that with the fact that nintendo since the wii has been at tail end of progression for hardware while everyone else is pushing to the forefront of it. I doubt people want to pay for a new console that may not play the older games and then $60 a game that you can only play online
 
At the same time mario kart 8 was on the wii u and so were multiple zelda titles. How did the wii u do ?

The switch is like the wii , it was able to get into the main stream because of a unique feature. But that doesn't mean a new system will have the same effect. Just because you can only play nintendo games on a nintendo system doesn't mean people will go out and buy it.

The Wii U's USP implementation was pretty awful and it suffered with poor third party support. The Switch in better in both regardswhich is probably why Switch outsold the Xbox One generation of consoles despite launching over thee years years later. Nintendo's games themselves cannot solely carry their hardware but as long as there is sufficient third party support filling the library, it can do really well despite not having staple AAA games like Assassin's Creed, Destiny, Watch Dogs, Call of Duty, The Division, Battlefield, GTA or Red Dead.
 
The Wii U's USP implementation was pretty awful and it suffered with poor third party support. The Switch in better in both regardswhich is probably why Switch outsold the Xbox One generation of consoles despite launching over thee years years later. Nintendo's games themselves cannot solely carry their hardware but as long as there is sufficient third party support filling the library, it can do really well despite not having staple AAA games like Assassin's Creed, Destiny, Watch Dogs, Call of Duty, The Division, Battlefield, GTA or Red Dead.

The problem is that was then and like my original post on it , it was helped out because a lot of devs had just finished transitioning from the xbox 360/ps3 to the one/ps4. The switch is better than the 360/ps3 and has a more modern gpu with what 8 times the ram. So while it couldn't quite compete with the one / ps4 in terms of raw graphics it was a lot closer to them vs the previous gen. So it was very easy for devs to target that hardware. Now we are in 2021 and it can't run new games from Triple A studios. Notice Control and Dying light are cloud only.

I also refute your assertion that it is lacking AAA games , because it had fortnite , mine craft , over watch , outer wilds , doom 2016 and the new one , wolfenstein , and the lego games.


My assertion is that nintendo is facing more competition than they had when the switch launched and they can't guarantee another success with a half assed product like the wii u. Like I've said before , there is now more competition in the same form factor and it can run all the games you think are staples. There is a cloud service that is subscription based and offers higher fidelity games on devices people likely already own. Every day they will face more competition in their chosen segment.
 
Two things can potentially trigger serious development of a new console there. Games sales slowing down or Hardware sales slowing down. Neither of those are happening, so it's unlikely they'll do anything drastic.

I don’t think that’s feasible. Console development takes years from silicon development, software tools, getting prototypes into developers hands so they can start making software, to getting the supply chain established, etc.

Even crappy launch games take at least 2 years to make nowadays, a console has to be well defined several years in advance.

there’s no way any one in the industry waits for software or hardware sales to slow before kicking off the development of the next console. They’ll predict when that will happen years in advance.

nintendo has been fairly consistent about releasing consoles with a 5-6 year cadence. The only question now is how has covid and the associated semiconductor supply chain disruption impacted their plans.
 
The problem is that was then and like my original post on it , it was helped out because a lot of devs had just finished transitioning from the xbox 360/ps3 to the one/ps4. The switch is better than the 360/ps3 and has a more modern gpu with what 8 times the ram. So while it couldn't quite compete with the one / ps4 in terms of raw graphics it was a lot closer to them vs the previous gen. So it was very easy for devs to target that hardware. Now we are in 2021 and it can't run new games from Triple A studios. Notice Control and Dying light are cloud only.

The Switch never received a bunch of AAA games, I already listed this and chose those ones because the are turn a lot of sales and revenue and represent above-average quality.

I also refute your assertion that it is lacking AAA games , because it had fortnite , mine craft , over watch , outer wilds , doom 2016 and the new one , wolfenstein , and the lego games.

I've never heard Minecraft described as AAA, not Fortnite, not Outer Wilds, nor the Lego games. You could have gone with Witcher 3 which nobody would argue with.

My assertion is that nintendo is facing more competition than they had when the switch launched and they can't guarantee another success with a half assed product like the wii u.

You could say the same about Microsoft and the Xbox One generation or Sony and PS3 generation.
 
Why would Nintendo even need better hardware but just the hardware they can buy as cheap as possible?

Nintendo doesn't need better hardware at the moment, but they will need it eventually. My "concern" comes from the fact that, since they didn't announce anything yet, their next console should be coming only in 2023, while competition is coming early 2022 with Steam Deck.

We've already seen with the Wii's later years how their software revenue can sink pretty hard within months. I don't know why the Switch would be any different, especially as people start moving on from covid and migrate their spending towards non-digital activities.
 
I don’t think that’s feasible. Console development takes years from silicon development, software tools, getting prototypes into developers hands so they can start making software, to getting the supply chain established, etc.

Even crappy launch games take at least 2 years to make nowadays, a console has to be well defined several years in advance.

there’s no way any one in the industry waits for software or hardware sales to slow before kicking off the development of the next console. They’ll predict when that will happen years in advance.

nintendo has been fairly consistent about releasing consoles with a 5-6 year cadence. The only question now is how has covid and the associated semiconductor supply chain disruption impacted their plans.
Nintendo announced the DS after the PSP was announced and launched it before the PSP was released. And that was a totally new system. Doing an upgraded switch revision would be easier because there would already be a bunch of games released for it. I'm not saying they have a system designed and ready to go, but Nintendo has a history of experimenting with hardware and releasing things when they are "needed".

You could have gone with Witcher 3 which nobody would argue with.
I would.
 
Nintendo doesn't need better hardware at the moment, but they will need it eventually. My "concern" comes from the fact that, since they didn't announce anything yet, their next console should be coming only in 2023, while competition is coming early 2022 with Steam Deck. We've already seen with the Wii's later years how their software revenue can sink pretty hard within months. I don't know why the Switch would be any different, especially as people start moving on from covid and migrate their spending towards non-digital activities.

I do wonder what Nintendo's next generational-leap console will be. Wii U was nothing like Wii and Switch was nothing like Wii U so they have established a run of doing something different but with both Microsoft and Sony building iteratively on previously generation architectures and toolchains, I wonder if Nintendo will continue to capitalise on having the only multiple-purpose device. Giving up the mobile arena seems unlucky as does reverting to separate mobile and home consoles.

In which case, leaving the technical decisions as late as possible will give Nintendo access the most options on APU, screen and battery components for Switch 2 even if they don't call it Switch 2 which I doubt they will.
 
Does anyone here actually think Nintendo views the Steam Deck as a threat?

I'm pretty sure when people like Silent_Buddha and I are talking about watching sales numbers that we can agree that Nintendo always has R&D going on so they are ready to go when needed (within 12 months, for instance) if their Switch numbers get soft. It would be silly to suggest that Nintendo are sitting back and doing nothing R&D wise and just smoking cigars watching their Switch profits roll in.
 
Nintendo doesn't need better hardware at the moment, but they will need it eventually. My "concern" comes from the fact that, since they didn't announce anything yet, their next console should be coming only in 2023, while competition is coming early 2022 with Steam Deck.

We've already seen with the Wii's later years how their software revenue can sink pretty hard within months. I don't know why the Switch would be any different, especially as people start moving on from covid and migrate their spending towards non-digital activities.

I mean steam deck comes out in two months. In terms of preorders they hit 500k in the first 48 hours. There are also a ton of similar devices having very popular kickstarters.

Lets also not forget that steam deck is a 7nm apu. Can a 5nm set up hit xbox series s performance ? MS could very well enter the market with a portable that plays all xbox series s games , all xbox one , all xbox 360 and xbox bc games along with xcloud and game pass on it. Sony at the same time can also introduce someone xbox series s level a portable , the majority of third party companies are targeting it anyway

Does anyone here actually think Nintendo views the Steam Deck as a threat?

I'm pretty sure when people like Silent_Buddha and I are talking about watching sales numbers that we can agree that Nintendo always has R&D going on so they are ready to go when needed (within 12 months, for instance) if their Switch numbers get soft. It would be silly to suggest that Nintendo are sitting back and doing nothing R&D wise and just smoking cigars watching their Switch profits roll in.

I don't think that the steam deck will outsell the switch. The problem for Nintendo is that they have very successful first party titles of which they tailor to their platform from start to finish. Third parties target other hardware and then move it over to the switch. The issue for nintendo is if people who want a handheld experience but what those third party titles may look at most likely a steam deck but maybe an aya neo or win 3d or whatever. They might say well my switch is great for nintendo games but I don't want to play this big third party game only when i'm home or have a strong wifi signal and may look at the deck or the others as a viable secondary console. What happens then is they slowly amass more titles on steam or 3rd party store and are more likely to buy another non Nintendo handheld in the future. For the more adventurous out there you can already run switch games on the aya neo

My nephew and my cousins kids love their switch but they now have valve deck preorders. Funny enough its all they talk to me about now. My cousins kid asked for steam gift cards for his birthday so he would have the money when it came out.

They might not even know about it yet. They just discovered online gaming a few years ago and bluetooth audio last week.

Yea its a shame it took so long but thankfully they don't make that mistake with a new one.
 
Employees at 11 game companies said their teams were in possession of Nintendo's 4K development kit for the Switch. The companies span the globe, ranging from large publishers to small studios and include at least one that has never made a console game before, Zynga Inc., according to the employees, who asked not to be identified because they weren't authorized to discuss their projects publicly.
But a system capable of handling 4K games isn't expected to be released until late next year at the earliest, people familiar with the plans said. That leaves Nintendo at a technical disadvantage to rivals, whose shares have soared this year while Nintendo's have lost 20%. It also risks alienating developers who have spent months tailoring their games to take advantage of upgraded hardware capabilities.

Nintendo responded to a list of questions by saying Bloomberg's reporting is "inaccurate" and declined to specify which parts of the information it was referring to.
It never ends :D
 
Could it be linked to the dock software update ?
I don't really see Nintendo releasing a new console so soon after the OLED one...
 
Could it be linked to the dock software update ?
I don't really see Nintendo releasing a new console so soon after the OLED one...

The Oled one is not really a new console imo, just an upgrade. Maybe it's even a "test run" for them, for their next gen with oled ?
 
I am expecting Switch 2 with no new gimmicks. The time of Nintendo gimmicks is over since 2DS when they removed the 3D from the 3DS making 2DS generation just a more powerfull DS. So Switch 2 will probably be a more powerful Switch being able to display at 4K docked and probably with a bigger screen, maybe 1080p.
Switch being the less innovative Nintendo console ever, it's basically a tablet with very badly designed and laggy joypads and it will probably be the most successful Nintendo console ever, why change a winning formula?
Could it be linked to the dock software update ?
I don't really see Nintendo releasing a new console so soon after the OLED one...
I do see it. I feel like they often did this in the past. The OLED model is there to milk their loyal customers just before Switch 2.
 
Could it be linked to the dock software update ?
I don't really see Nintendo releasing a new console so soon after the OLED one...

Just because there is this guidance doesn't mean the new system is inbound . Nintendo may just be getting ready as it would take time for devs to go back and update the games with new options. There are hundreds of titles on the platform if not more.

I think there are two options for a new console. one next year with the zelda release or one in 2023/24 with a mario release. For the zelda time frame I think zelda would have to be delayed again (which i bet it will be regardless) to later in 2022. I think 2023/24 the shortages and limited fab capacities will be over and they can make enough systems to get close to demand. I think that is their best option imho.

Xavier would give them DLSS and by 2022 it will be 2-3 years old , 2023/24 it would be around for about how long the x1 was before it went into the switch i think.


THe other option would be Orin which should be sampling now with a release of sometime in 2022. That be pretty nice it would have a 12 core Coretex A78AE with an Ampere based gpu and a bandwidth of about 200GB.
A 2023 /24 launch could fit in with that. I obviously doubt nintendo would do a 12 core set up but they could put out an 8 core and instead of the top end of 2048 cuda cores they could come down from that number. WIth DLSS there shouldn't be an issue with performance and it should be more than capable of rendering the new console games at say 720p and using dlss to a 1080p portable screen and then when docked higher clock speeds and a 4k dlss mode would make it a fine replacement for the original switch.

A 2022/2023 release may put it in direct patch of mid gen upgrades if either of the other companies are doing one
 
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