Microsoft acquires ZeniMax Media (Bethesda, id Software, Arkane + 5 more) [2020-09-21, 2021-03-09]

[PSman1700]

I dont think best version available applies as much as many think because not everyone is playing on PCs.

Yes i ment in the console space, the pc and console are different markets, some dont want a PC and want the eas of use and cheaper solution of a console.

After if PS5 had the same power than Xbox Series S at 399 dollars and the Xbox Series X was the same console at 499, it will matter. This is always a matter of power difference if the difference was the same than PS2 and the first Xbox with console releasing at the same time and better brand recognition on Xbox side due to the fact this is not the first console, Sony would be in a shitty situation.

True, and even then, the PS2 being much weaker, you didnt miss all that much, you got the same games basically, about the same graphics etc.

 

[eastmen]

It is around that 225B mark. Which would make it right around the largest in history. But smaller companies than MS hauled in those huge acquisitions.

It really is just crazy spit balling on my part. I just asked if I was MS, what could I do that would move the needle and have a high potential to pay for itself. What IP's would be big? Just a thought but -> the parks and movies can continue as they are. No reason to think they would not. Same with the likes of ABC and ESPN. Though I think ESPN is a bit of a drag on the profit margin right now. Works pretty well and they are self-run. You don't reorganize it, just let it do its thing. MS gets the rights to some major game IP - Star Wars and Marvel alone and what that could mean. Assuming, of course, you can make good games from them. You would have the biggest Sci-Fi property and the biggest comic book property under your roof. Cross-marketing possibilities would be nice. Toys? A "Cars" or "Toy Story" set of games, exclusive to Xbox..... That would get em' started young. Tie it straight into Minecraft. A commercial for one becomes a commercial for all. Mindshare could be huge. MS has tried, and utterly failed really, to get into video production. Just like some of their game studio acquisition failures. If you cannot beat them... buy them?

As you said, Disney+ goes Xcloud/ Azure, and it is just getting started. MS has tried on multiple occasions to get Halo and some other titles their own TV or movie integrations. Just think of the reach around the world that Disney offers. Unless the company is somehow over-valued, buying it could well just straight pay for itself. If you play your cards right with all the Disney and Fox properties plus Marvel and Star Wars..... You would even be able to roll Disney+ and GamePass together in various ways.

Really, just a crazy thought I gamed out. More a matter of "what would it mean if?" than any real attempt to predict a possibility. I cannot think of something that would move the needle more. Not that you could do from a legal standpoint anyway. Just a fun thought.

well

1) The parks are bleeding money , the California park is not allowed to open until some time in 2021. Orlando is at 25% capacity and most hotels are shut into 2021. I think they took majority share in the Paris park but the other parks in the world are just license deals or partial ownership

2) ESPN has been a huge drag for years and is continuing its downward spiral. The NBA has had its lowest ratings this past season so who knows what will happen with sports going foward. But its not good news for sports as a whole

3) Star Wars is damaged at this point. I don't think its worth what it was. I'm a person who read all of the EU books and the comics and i haven't been interested in it since rouge 1. I go to disney world 4 times a year and haven't even entered the star wars part of hollywood studios

Marvel is still big on the movie side, the comic side has imploded with covid and the crappy comics its been putting out for the last decade. Disney classics are always good.

here is the part your missing though. They all have licensing deals with other companies for the video games . Microsoft wouldn't benefit from this until those deals are over and they would have to start up their own development teams to produce all this content.

4) Yes DIsney+ onto Xcloud/ Azure but Disney + doesn't seem to be doing that great from what I can see. covid threw a wrench into their content plans and i think it ran out of steam once Mandalorian ended. Maybe season 2 into wanda vision and other stuff can get subscriber count growing again but they need something sustained.

Your also forgetting Hulu. With the fox deal Disney now owns the majority (or it could be all of it at this point ) of Hulu .


You get some good stuff with Disney at 255B but they could also just buy activision (62B) and ea {32B) and take 2 (19B) and sega(4B) . Drop 117B and get a huge stable of developers and IP and save half the cost

 

[Silenti]

Cool. OK. Point by point.

1) Any company that relies on public gatherings is bleeding money. Their stock is currently at 125. In the last year they have ranged from 86-151. Just not sure it is fair to argue against them based on COVID restrictions when it is something everyone is facing. If you want to argue it is over-valued at 125, I honestly don't know enough to comment on that one. Certainly the stock has been volatile in the past year. Guess maybe it depends on what you would get it for?

2) No real disagreement here. ESPN has been cutting costs for a few years. That NBA contract though is terrible. They are stuck with it until the 2024/5 season ends. I am uncertain any sports league, even the NFL, is just going to keep chugging forward to ever greater profits. It is in such bad shape you would probably have trouble selling it. Which I would seriously consider.

3)It is just so damned sad about Star Wars. No argument that it is damaged. Episode 7 was bad fan fiction. 8 was worse. I actually somewhat liked Rogue 1. Never saw 9 - you would have to pay me to watch it. Then you get Solo. Which is a movie that was free on Netflix (or Amazon?) and I tried to watch, twice. Both times I turned it off it was so terrible. It is damaged property, but the potential! Until someone figures out a good way to cross knights with laser swords, westerns, and epic sci-fi without getting sued then Star Wars has serious value. The Mandalorian - sigh. It is only getting rave reviews because everything else Star Wars has sucked for so long. That show is utterly mediocre at best. What it could be though..... That is a seriously valuable universe to tell stories in.

Marvell has been pretty dominant at the movies for years though. What is the long term value of X-Men, the Avengers and Deadpool?

Nope, I didn't miss the licensing deals. Didn't mention them, but took it into account. You honor existing contracts just like with Bethesda. Then you can decide exactly how to approach it. You can even continue to license it out to EA or "highest bidder X" if you really want to. You could do whatever worked best for you. Timed exclusives? Non-exclusive rights for EA? I would use those last 2 personally. What is a good Star Wars video game worth? If, and I realize it is if, you could get that property rolling again...... MS is already expanding studios and letting them "make the games they want to make". How many would leap at the chance to have Marvel and Star Wars to play with? I wonder what Rare, the Initiative, Obsidian and Ninja Theory would do with those.....

4) Disney+ I don't know how to judge just how well it is doing. Are there public figures? (Found. As of August - 60+ million subscribers) All I really know is that every family I know with children seems to have it and plenty of childless adults have it for nostalgia or current content (aka - Star Wars, Marvel, etc.)


Didn't forget Hulu. Mentioned them, but to me it is just a streaming division. I think Disney owns 2/3rds of it after the Fox acquisition. Don't want it? Sell it. Going pretty well on its own? Leave it alone and use it as another outlet.

I think you would run into serious legal issues if you tried to buy those top 3. EA would especially draw scrutiny from legislators given their stranglehold on international sports. Try and take access to NFL, FIFA and F1 and turn them into exclusives? Not sure how that would fly. When Disney bought Fox they had to divest themselves of the MLB components. That is before we get to Take 2 and Activision. Maybe you could get away with it. US legislators often seem clueless about anything that is not cable television. With those sports game though, they are just license deals. Take 2 has 2 huge home grown properties. How enduring will they be though? Not for the next release, but in the long term? I am leery of almost anything not Nintendo enduring on the video game side in the long haul.

Star Wars and Disney have an enduring appeal that cannot, seemingly, be replaced by the next big thing. Unlike COD or Fortnite. It has more in common with Minecraft and Lego to me than anything Activision, non-sports EA or Take 2 has to offer. If you had to place a bet on 20 years from now, put the following properties in order that you think they will still be relevant: Marvel, DC, GTA, RDR, Star Wars, Disney/ Pixar cartoons, COD and Fortnite. COD, Fortnite, RDR and GTA would be the bottom 4 from my point of view. (With GTA sitting at the very top of those 4.) With EA, it is mostly licensed stuff and seriously damaged properties like DeadSpace and Mass Effect. Take 2, 2 big properties but how enduring will they be? Activision?

I would trust the Disney acquisition to be more diversified and safe and investment than buying 4 game publishers. It just seems to offer so much. Worried about the 225B? Sell some stuff off. ESPN and possibly Hulu being at the top of the list from my standpoint. Not a fan of Hulu personally, so I don't really know what they are worth. If they are chugging along nicely then go ah ead and keep them.

 

[eastmen]

Cool. OK. Point by point.

1) Any company that relies on public gatherings is bleeding money. Their stock is currently at 125. In the last year they have ranged from 86-151. Just not sure it is fair to argue against them based on COVID restrictions when it is something everyone is facing. If you want to argue it is over-valued at 125, I honestly don't know enough to comment on that one. Certainly the stock has been volatile in the past year. Guess maybe it depends on what you would get it for?

2) No real disagreement here. ESPN has been cutting costs for a few years. That NBA contract though is terrible. They are stuck with it until the 2024/5 season ends. I am uncertain any sports league, even the NFL, is just going to keep chugging forward to ever greater profits. It is in such bad shape you would probably have trouble selling it. Which I would seriously consider.

3)It is just so damned sad about Star Wars. No argument that it is damaged. Episode 7 was bad fan fiction. 8 was worse. I actually somewhat liked Rogue 1. Never saw 9 - you would have to pay me to watch it. Then you get Solo. Which is a movie that was free on Netflix (or Amazon?) and I tried to watch, twice. Both times I turned it off it was so terrible. It is damaged property, but the potential! Until someone figures out a good way to cross knights with laser swords, westerns, and epic sci-fi without getting sued then Star Wars has serious value. The Mandalorian - sigh. It is only getting rave reviews because everything else Star Wars has sucked for so long. That show is utterly mediocre at best. What it could be though..... That is a seriously valuable universe to tell stories in.

Marvell has been pretty dominant at the movies for years though. What is the long term value of X-Men, the Avengers and Deadpool?

Nope, I didn't miss the licensing deals. Didn't mention them, but took it into account. You honor existing contracts just like with Bethesda. Then you can decide exactly how to approach it. You can even continue to license it out to EA or "highest bidder X" if you really want to. You could do whatever worked best for you. Timed exclusives? Non-exclusive rights for EA? I would use those last 2 personally. What is a good Star Wars video game worth? If, and I realize it is if, you could get that property rolling again...... MS is already expanding studios and letting them "make the games they want to make". How many would leap at the chance to have Marvel and Star Wars to play with? I wonder what Rare, the Initiative, Obsidian and Ninja Theory would do with those.....

4) Disney+ I don't know how to judge just how well it is doing. Are there public figures? (Found. As of August - 60+ million subscribers) All I really know is that every family I know with children seems to have it and plenty of childless adults have it for nostalgia or current content (aka - Star Wars, Marvel, etc.)


Didn't forget Hulu. Mentioned them, but to me it is just a streaming division. I think Disney owns 2/3rds of it after the Fox acquisition. Don't want it? Sell it. Going pretty well on its own? Leave it alone and use it as another outlet.

I think you would run into serious legal issues if you tried to buy those top 3. EA would especially draw scrutiny from legislators given their stranglehold on international sports. Try and take access to NFL, FIFA and F1 and turn them into exclusives? Not sure how that would fly. When Disney bought Fox they had to divest themselves of the MLB components. That is before we get to Take 2 and Activision. Maybe you could get away with it. US legislators often seem clueless about anything that is not cable television. With those sports game though, they are just license deals. Take 2 has 2 huge home grown properties. How enduring will they be though? Not for the next release, but in the long term? I am leery of almost anything not Nintendo enduring on the video game side in the long haul.

Star Wars and Disney have an enduring appeal that cannot, seemingly, be replaced by the next big thing. Unlike COD or Fortnite. It has more in common with Minecraft and Lego to me than anything Activision, non-sports EA or Take 2 has to offer. If you had to place a bet on 20 years from now, put the following properties in order that you think they will still be relevant: Marvel, DC, GTA, RDR, Star Wars, Disney/ Pixar cartoons, COD and Fortnite. COD, Fortnite, RDR and GTA would be the bottom 4 from my point of view. (With GTA sitting at the very top of those 4.) With EA, it is mostly licensed stuff and seriously damaged properties like DeadSpace and Mass Effect. Take 2, 2 big properties but how enduring will they be? Activision?

I would trust the Disney acquisition to be more diversified and safe and investment than buying 4 game publishers. It just seems to offer so much. Worried about the 225B? Sell some stuff off. ESPN and possibly Hulu being at the top of the list from my standpoint. Not a fan of Hulu personally, so I don't really know what they are worth. If they are chugging along nicely then go ah ead and keep them.

Well

1) Disney is in bad debt , they went into debt to buy fox and now they are going into debt further each day that covid exists. The stock is high yes but they will be climbing out of this pit for years. Think about it if it was 2019 you could say oh well they will just drop 5 or 6 movies making billions each . But when will a movie make billions again ? When will they make hundreds of millions again ? All of the theaters are going out of business

2) they could try and pivot it to E sports focus for live tv to try and help bring up ratings but i don't think it will work. There are to many competing companies for every part of the sports pie

3) Mando is getting hype because it wasn't stained with the sjw crap that the new trilogy was. Every character in the story so far is complex and has real motivation. I think they just need to get rid of all the politics like the force is female and just make good stories .

4) I got it for 3 years for $170 . I don't think i will resubscribe unless they start getting content .I do love the old content but at the same time I don't know how many times i can watch the classics. Hulu isn't worth money to anyone else because the content is almost all disney content from the tv channels. Disney should just buy out the rest and integrate it into Disney plus

I was just giving an example of what MS could buy for half the cost of Disney. You can take out EA and replace it with Square or Valve or anyone else if you want.

I think for MS its more about developers + ip . Lets just say Disney has no deals with EA for star wars. How long would it take MS to make a quality studio that can make qualitry star wars games ? Would we see games this decade ? I'd wager at least 5 years for a game to make it out of the Disney deal and thats without 3rd party contracts that need to be finished.

If you buy a bunch of studios sure the IP may not be star wars or marvel but at the same time the studios will have games in the pipe line already so MS can start recouping money from almost day one. With Disney they will most likely keep loosing money for another 3-4 years at least before they start clawing back from the losses let alone purchase price

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I agree with Eastmen, mainly. Disney is WAY overpriced right now. I wouldn't necessarily buy the studios he's suggesting as I think to lure Sony fans you need Square, Capcom, Sega etc... type games more than you need exclusivity on things like COD. I think MS' main problem over the years has been appealing to the NON-CoD/Halo/Madden gamer.

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

I go to disney world 4 times a year

Do you have kids, or do you volunteer at an orphanage or something?

 

[AlNom]

Do you have kids, or do you volunteer at an orphanage or something?

Maybe he likes the rides and turkey legs. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[eastmen]

Do you have kids, or do you volunteer at an orphanage or something?

my parents have a house down there and i worked for Disney for about 4 years so went a lot for free. Now i just keep a season pass and go to my parents winter home a few times a year. Do work on the house for them and just relax with my wife

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

my parents have a house down there and i worked for Disney for about 4 years so went a lot for free. Now i just keep a season pass and go to my parents winter home a few times a year. Do work on the house for them and just relax with my wife

Fair enough. I was just poking fun really, as I've never understood why a childless adult would want to go to Disneyland.

Then again, most people wouldn't understand why an adult would want to piss away time on an internet forum, guessing at the contents and functionality of electrical appliances. Yet here I am.

Maybe he likes the rides and turkey legs. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Is that a term for obese white people in shorty shorts?

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I (50) go to Disney World as often as I can with my wife, with our without our kids (32 and 23); about annually. The resort accommodations and food are incredible and the rides and shows are great as well.

I don't understand why people don't go to Disney World every year. Actually, I do: They can't afford it.

 

[AlNom]

Is that a term for obese white people in shorty shorts?

Wasn’t supposed to be. They sell turkey legs for consumption.

 

[AzBat]

Fair enough. I was just poking fun really, as I've never understood why a childless adult would want to go to Disneyland.

Then again, most people wouldn't understand why an adult would want to piss away time on an internet forum, guessing at the contents and functionality of electrical appliances. Yet here I am.



Is that a term for obese white people in shorty shorts?

Good thing I'm not easily offended. LOL

Tommy McClain

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

I don't understand why people don't go to Disney World every year. Actually, I do: They can't afford it.

Not every middling wealthy person and upwards has the taste of an alsatian.

Personally, if my butler has taken my smoking jacket to Harrod's to have the buttons polished, my golden helicopter has been borrowed by a Saudi prince, and my pond is once again full of dead carp and manatees due to excessive champagne/bull shark levels, I like to simulate Disney World trips by donning a propellor hat, visiting a famine relief centre, tying a brightly coloured balloon to the end of a lit sparkler, and waving it in my face while I alternate between singing "I just can't wait to be king" and gulping at a tepid soup of golden syrup and goose fat.

If I can find a nazi sympathiser and a child molester in fancy dress, then it's almost exactly like I'm there in its heyday.

 

[eastmen]

Fair enough. I was just poking fun really, as I've never understood why a childless adult would want to go to Disneyland.

Then again, most people wouldn't understand why an adult would want to piss away time on an internet forum, guessing at the contents and functionality of electrical appliances. Yet here I am.



Is that a term for obese white people in shorty shorts?

Its a lot of fun for adults. Before i met my wife i would go to Epcot and do around the world drinking and there were web sites where you'd meet people to do it with. Now i do a lot of half marathons down there as they are themed and a lot of fun.

My wife and I like to go and have nice dinners in epcot , we even got married at the boardwalk last year !

also at Disney they slow roast a turkey leg and some people walk around eating it. Its not something I enjoy much because its just way to much turkey

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Not a fan of the turkey leg either, but Epcot dining? Oh my!

 

[eastmen]

Not a fan of the turkey leg either, but Epcot dining? Oh my!

oh yea , i want to go back and eat so bad lol. I could do some fish and chips in the UK , then pizza in italy and then tequila in mexico and then back to japan for some sushi for desert lol.

 

[London Geezer]

I don't understand why people don't go to Disney World every year. Actually, I do: They can't afford it.

What an utterly crass statement to make. Thinking that the only reason people may not want to go to bloody Disneyland because they ‘don’t have enough money’. What a load of rubbish.

 

[dobwal]

I agree with Eastmen, mainly. Disney is WAY overpriced right now. I wouldn't necessarily buy the studios he's suggesting as I think to lure Sony fans you need Square, Capcom, Sega etc... type games more than you need exclusivity on things like COD. I think MS' main problem over the years has been appealing to the NON-CoD/Halo/Madden gamer.

Pfft. I would love for MS to buy Disney and change its name to Marvel Soft. Go from Windows 10 to Windows X with Patrick Steward leading the marketing. Cerebro Cloud Centers sounds a lot better than Azure. Xbox...Xmen, its all the same if MS owned Disney.

LOL.

 

[iroboto]

Weird convo. The company that owns call of duty, aka activision would own it all.
You guys really underestimate 3P titles here if you’re talking about Disney. Bethesda was a large get and leaves a massive hole.
If MS bought _any_ other large publisher that would be a significant loss in major titles for
Sony.
the only users that wouldn’t flinch are those looking to only buy Sony exclusives anyway. But then there’s everyone else who play sports games, shooters, assassins creed, rainbow six etc.

I would expect there to be an actual meltdown if MS scored another large publisher. Flying pigs, cats and dogs living together. Mass hysteria.

 

[dobwal]

Weird convo. The company that owns call of duty, aka activision would own it all.
You guys really underestimate 3P titles here if you’re talking about Disney. Bethesda was a large get and leaves a massive hole.
If MS bought _any_ other large publisher that would be a significant loss in major titles for
Sony.
the only users that wouldn’t flinch are those looking to only buy Sony exclusives anyway. But then there’s everyone else who play sports games, shooters, assassins creed, rainbow six etc.

I would expect there to be an actual meltdown if MS scored another large publisher. Flying pigs, cats and dogs living together. Mass hysteria.

Ultimately, for MS to engage in the heavy buying of publishers, it would do so with the knowledge that a significant portion of value would be lost if the IPs become exclusive to the Xbox brand. It would be the equivalent of buying Netflix and making it exclusive to the US market.

I think the next stage of purchases shouldn't revolve around development houses or IPs but rather talent itself. I would look at who are the major players in the top franchises in the market. I would hire them and give them their own studios with a profit-sharing model. I would look for talent that can put together and lead large teams that have the potential to produce new valuable IPs.