Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

The UK response is at the other end of the scale with an overly-centralised, yet inconsistent (not to mention, incompetent) response. We're rapidly heading towards another national lockdown (unless the libertarian fringe which doesn't understand that herd immunity might not be possible with this virus gets its way). The much-vaunted "NHS Test and Trace" just doesn't work well enough - who'd have thought that using call centres with no boots on the ground or knowledge of the local area wouldn't be effective? Apart from every public health professional in the country, of course. In fact, it actually has little to do with the NHS but has been outsourced to the public sector for many billions - no tender required and I'd imagine, no penalty clauses when the system fails. It is only now that they are starting to authorise the use of the local public health professionals whose everyday job it is to track and trace people with STDs and other communicable diseases. All of this should have been linked up and planned from the earliest opportunity.

We're going to be hit very badly once again this winter and we don't even have the wingnuttery of the American right to point at and blame. It's good, old-fashioned incompetence.
 
Less than half UK population to receive coronavirus vaccine, says task force head

Less than half the UK population can expect to be vaccinated against coronavirus, the head of the government’s vaccine task force has said in an attempt to clear up the public’s “misguided” perception of the programme’s aim.

Kate Bingham told the Financial Times that vaccinating everyone in the country was “not going to happen”, adding: “We just need to vaccinate everyone at risk.”

Her comments come as Boris Johnson on Sunday warned that the country was in for a “bumpy” winter. Calling himself a “freedom-loving Tory”, he urged Britons to live “fearlessly but with common sense”.

However, pointing to the latest infection rate data, which has surged despite more than a quarter of the UK living under tighter restrictions, the prime minister said the number one priority was to keep fighting the virus.

A record 22,961 new coronavirus cases were confirmed on Sunday, an increase of more than 10,000 compared to 12,872 on Saturday.

The government said “an issue” had been identified overnight on Friday October 2 “in the automated process that transfers positive cases data to PHE”.

As a result, the number of coronavirus cases published between October 3 and October 4 included 15,841 additional cases from between September 25 and October 2.

Ms Bingham said the government was aiming to vaccinate about 30m people, compared with a UK population of about 67m, if a successful vaccine against Covid-19 was found.

“People keep talking about ‘time to vaccinate the whole population’, but that is misguided,” she said. “There’s going to be no vaccination of people under 18. It’s an adult-only vaccine, for people over 50, focusing on health workers and care home workers and the vulnerable.”

Some public health experts said the fact that many British people believed a vaccine would be taken by the entire population pointed to a lack of clarity in government messaging about what the public could expect.

“It hasn’t really been clearly communicated to the public,” said Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh university. “It would be good if they . . . had a conversation about how that priority process will go.”

She added: “You could make the argument that the people you need to vaccinate are people from a deprived background. The best way to shield is to be wealthy.”

Ms Bingham said vaccination policy would be aimed at those “most at risk” and noted that vaccinating healthy people, who are much less likely to have severe outcomes from Covid-19, “could cause them some freak harm”, potentially tipping the scales in terms of the risk-benefit analysis.

David Nabarro, special envoy to the World Health Organization on Covid-19, also told the FT that addressing the coronavirus crisis was “not going to be a case of everyone getting vaccinated”.

He added: “There will be a definite analysis of who is the priority for the vaccine, based on where they live, their occupation and their age bracket.

“We’re not fundamentally using the vaccine to create population immunity, we’re just changing the likelihood people will get harmed or hurt. It will be strategic.”

The latest advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation in the UK, published last week, states that “simple age-based [vaccination] programmes are usually easier to deliver and therefore achieve higher vaccine uptake”, and also states that health and social care workers would be a high priority.

It places older adults in care homes and care home workers at the top of its priority list and then all adults aged 50 to 80 next on the list, with older age groups first.

The JCVI said there had not been a decision on who would be eligible for the vaccine.

The health department said it was looking at advice from the JCVI, adding that it wanted “as many people as possible to access a Covid-19 vaccine”.

Ms Bingham, who is also managing partner at fund manager SV Health Investors, said that if any vaccine proved to be 95 per cent effective, which is thought to be unlikely, then it may make sense to vaccinate more widely but any decision on this would be taken later.

The UK government has six vaccine candidates in its portfolio, produced by AstraZeneca and Oxford university; BioNTech and Pfizer; Valneva; Novavax; Johnson & Johnson; and GlaxoSmithKline.

All are likely to require two doses, which is why the vaccine deals with manufacturers have been done in multiples of 60m, Ms Bingham said.

Scientists’ forecasts for when the first of these could present positive phase 3, or final, trial results range from this month, at the most optimistic, to mid-2021 at the most pessimistic. If such trials are successful, companies will look to secure emergency regulatory approval within months.

It is widely believed that any vaccine against Covid-19 will only limit the damage caused by the disease, rather than preventing transmission altogether.

The influenza vaccine was given to roughly 15m people in the UK last year, although the target for this year is double that. It has been more effective in some years than others, preventing anywhere between 15 per cent and 52 per cent of cases between 2015 and 2020, according to research by Oxford university.

https://www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-7889-4d5d-84a3-43e51355a751
 
Sweet 16 party leads to 37 COVID-19 cases in 'super-spreader' event: Officials

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crim...er-event-officials/ar-BB19ZK1M?ocid=Peregrine

A Sweet 16 party at a Long Island, New York, catering hall is being called a COVID-19 "super-spreader event" that has now been connected to 37 confirmed cases, officials said.

The Sept. 25 celebration also caused 270 people to quarantine, Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said Tuesday during a press briefing.

The number of guests allegedly exceeded the state's public gathering maximum of 50, and there was not widespread compliance with wearing face coverings or social distancing, officials said.

The venue, the Miller Place Inn in Miller Place, was hit with a $10,000 fine for violating the state's executive order and public health law, Bellone said. It was also fined $2,000 for a sanitary code violation, he said.

The first case tied to the Sweet 16 party was confirmed on Sept. 30, Bellone said, as the Suffolk County health department was investigating a number of COVID-19 cases in the Sachem school district.

The health department voluntarily obtained a copy of the Sweet 16 guest list, which contained 81 guests -- 49 students and 32 adults, officials said.

After entering the guest list into the county's contact tracing system, the investigation identified 37 positive cases -- nine adults and 28 students at eight different schools -- connected to the party, officials said. Additionally, 270 people were placed under quarantine, including individuals at 35 schools, officials said.

"There is no precise definition of what a super-spreader event is," Bellone said. "But in Suffolk County, we have not seen an event like this before at any time throughout this pandemic. For Suffolk County, this was a super-spreader event."

This investigation marked the first time the county took action against a business during the pandemic, Bellone said.

"This cluster should serve as a stark reminder of the potential consequences of violating COVID-19 rules and regulations," he said. "We do not want to see businesses shutting down and schools shutting down."
 
Parents and siblings?

Anyways, idiots. I don’t understand why such an event would be such a big deal to have. o_O:rolleyes:
 
I'm not sure WTF is going on in Ohio with COVID-19 cases and neither are any of the GOP in charge. Ohio just shattered their all-time daily new case record with 2039. They're not talking about the now, only about distant futures. Meanwhile schools are having surges in cases and forcing more into isolation, with non-trivial numbers having to stop their 5 Day In Person learning and revert to the safer virtual learning programs.

This is the latest they're talking about, from yesterday.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/po...ses-news-you-can-use/covid-19-update-10-13-20

INCREASING CASES

Governor DeWine today cautioned that the continuing increase in COVID-19 cases indicates that significant numbers of infections are likely this winter unless citizens take steps to mitigate and control the spread of the virus.

"Although a vaccine is on the way in the future, we can't control the timetable of the development of a vaccine - but we can control how much this flares up until then," said Governor DeWine. "We have avoided the large outbreaks that other countries and other states have seen, and so far, the combined efforts of Ohioans have kept the virus in check. We can't let our guards down now. We need to continue taking basic safety measures of wearing masks, keeping distance, and avoiding large gatherings."

In the last seven days, Ohio COVID-19 cases have averaged 1,475 cases per day by report date as compared to an average of approximately 1,000 cases per day only two weeks ago. Ohio's current positivity rate is 4.1 percent as compared to 2.7 percent on September 23 and 24. A total of 51 counties are considered high incidence and/or Alert Level 3 on Ohio's Public Health Advisory System.

upload_2020-10-14_16-3-31.png
 
Read the full article @ https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0201014-tfho3kvw7jaabmlv2d7gwndgii-story.html

Florida puts a positive spin on COVID-19 data, misleading the public on pandemic

Florida has obscured the true extent of its COVID-19 pandemic by using a misleading measure of positive cases to justify reopening schools and businesses, state data indicates.

While Florida has publicized that its “positivity rate” has regularly fallen below 5%, other health organizations are publishing data that shows the rate may be dramatically higher.

Independent experts, including Johns Hopkins University, consistently list Florida’s positivity rate at 10% or higher, twice the recommended level for widespread reopening.

Florida itself calculates another version of the rate — not widely publicized — that shows the pandemic is worse than state officials have championed. Those figures show that the rate has never fallen to the 5% threshold, the South Florida Sun Sentinel discovered.

The result: As coronavirus cases again threaten to rise in Florida, with schools and businesses fully open, it is becoming increasingly difficult to answer a simple question: What percentage of people tested positive for COVID-19 on any given day — and are we justified in going about our business without worry? Or did Gov. Ron DeSantis put people at risk when he allowed businesses to return to normal?

“Doing what we’re doing now, I think positivity numbers are just about useless, because it’s completely opaque who is getting tested and why,” said Thomas Hladish, a scientist at the University of Florida’s Emerging Pathogens Institute who has done pandemic modeling for the Florida Department of Health.

...

upload_2020-10-15_8-50-9.png
 
That guy wants to run for president one day. He's another gaslighting politician but he doesn't have the loud and obnoxious personality.

Yet he was able to take control of all state agencies and silence scientists, medical examiners, etc.
 
Ohio has even higher number of new cases than previous day at 2.1K. Maybe if they didn't reopen fully and allow the social gathers such as School Sporting Events there wouldn't be surges like this. Instead they burry their head, ignore their part in allowing this, and look for others to blame.

Here's what the incompetent shared on Twitter --

As of today, Ohio has 29 red counties. That is 65% of Ohioans who are living in red counties.

We also now have 52 counties that are high incidence as of today. This means the county has seen more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents during the past two weeks.​

The Ohio Public Health Advisory System uses seven Indicators to assess the degree of the virus’ spread in each county. A summary of the alert indicators can be found on http://coronavirus.ohio.gov​

We have 13 new red counties today. Our local health department officials have told us this week that our schools are doing a good job. But what they are seeing is spread from social gatherings.

Our health commissioners tell us they are seeing less and less mask compliance when people are out and that people aren’t wearing masks when they are with friends and family.

These are not times to be complacent or comfortable. It is the time to be vigilant to protect yourself, your family, your friends and your neighbors.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1316803550182285313

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1316807006725050369
 
COVID-19 antibodies in patients fade rapidly after symptoms subside

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...de-rapidly-after-symptoms-subside/ar-BB1a5LUK

Antibodies made by the body to fight COVID-19 — the transfusion of which is being trialled as a treatment for other, more severe patients — fade rapidly after recovery.

Experts from Canada studied the blood of recovering coronavirus patients, finding that the extent of the immune defences drop 6–10 weeks after their first symptoms.

Plasma transfusions have not been proven as a treatment yet in randomised trials, but small retrospective studies have hinted that such may reduce illness severity.

If so-called 'convalescent plasma' is proven to be beneficial, this means that there is only a short window of opportunity for it to be donated, the researchers warned.

Donors must wait two weeks after symptoms subside before giving blood — to ensure viral particles are gone — and symptoms typically last two weeks before that.

Given this, the time frame for plasma donation could be as short as just a fortnight.
 
Remdesivir, the only antiviral authorized for COVID-19 in US, does not improve chances of survival, a massive WHO study found

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...urvival-a-massive-who-study-found/ar-BB1a5Jko

Remdesivir, the only antiviral drug authorized to treat COVID-19 in the US, does not stop patients dying or shorten their hospital stays, according to a massive World Health Organization (WHO) study.

The WHO's Solidarity trial, one of the largest ongoing studies of COVID-19 drugs, examined the effects of remdesivir and three other potential coronavirus treatments in more than 11,000 patients in 30 countries.

Results from the clinical trial found that none of the drugs "substantially affected mortality," reduced the need to ventilate patients, or shortened hospital stays.

"These remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir, and interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay," the report said.

Big global study finds remdesivir doesn't help Covid-19 patients

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ir-doesn-t-help-covid-19-patients/ar-BB1a4MeV

In a study it described as both conclusive and disappointing, the World Health Organization said the antiviral drug remdesivir has "little or no effect on mortality" for patients hospitalized with coronavirus and it doesn't seem to help patients recover any faster, either.

Until now, remdesivir has been the only drug that appeared to have specific effects for coronavirus. It was the only drug with an Emergency Use Authorization for Covid-19 from the US Food and Drug Administration.

Results of the WHO study have not been published in a peer-reviewed medical journal. But WHO posted them to a pre-print server.

The WHO study reviewed remdesivir and three other repurposed drugs: hydroxychloroquine, the HIV combination of lopinavir and ritonavir and interferon. None of them helped patients live any longer or get out of the hospital any sooner, WHO said.

The trial was able to generate conclusive evidence on the impact the drugs had on mortality, the need for ventilation, and duration of hospital stay.

"For each drug in the study, the effect on mortality was disappointingly unpromising," WHO said in a statement.

Several other studies had found that hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, was of no benefit to coronavirus patients, as had several studies looking at the HIV drug combination.

The study covered more than 11,000 coronavirus patients in 30 countries. "The protocol was designed to involve hundreds of potentially over-stressed hospitals in dozens of countries," the international team of researchers wrote. They said they have submitted their findings to a medical journal.

Prior to the WHO study, a large controlled study of remdesivir in the US found that it shortens recovery time by about a third in severely ill, hospitalized adults with Covid-19, but does little to help those with milder cases.

Gilead Sciences, the drug's maker, said the findings did not mean the drug, sold under the brand name Veklury, is of no benefit.

"The emerging data appear inconsistent with more robust evidence from multiple randomized, controlled studies published in peer-reviewed journals validating the clinical benefit of Veklury (remdesivir). We are concerned that the data from this open- label global trial have not undergone the rigorous review required to allow for constructive scientific discussion," Gilead said in a statement.

"The benefits of Veklury have been demonstrated in three randomized, controlled clinical trials, including a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial -- the gold standard for evaluating the efficacy and safety of investigational drugs."

The WHO-led researchers say their trial, called the Solidarity trial, will continue. "Newer antiviral drugs, immunomodulators and anti-SARS COV-2 monoclonal antibodies are now being considered for evaluation via the Solidarity Therapeutics trial," WHO said.

Monoclonal antibody treatments include Regeneron's dual antibody cocktail and Eli Lilly and Co's double antibody therapy.
 
The Third Coronavirus Surge Has Arrived

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-third-coronavirus-surge-has-arrived/ar-BB1a4NND

After a month of warning signs, this week’s data make it clear: The third surge of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is underway. Outbreaks have been worsening in many states for more than a month, and new COVID-19 cases jumped 18 percent this week, bringing the seven-day average to more than 51,000 cases a day. Though testing rose by 8 percent nationally, that’s not enough of an increase to explain the steep rise in cases. Meanwhile, COVID-19 hospitalizations, which had previously been creeping upward slowly, jumped more than 14 percent from a week earlier.

BB1a4F49.img
 
Looking very gloomy, unless the vaccines come through.

The monoclonal antibodies will ride some hype because they were given to Trump and Chris Christie. But it's not a viable option for millions because they can't easily scale up manufacturing.
 
To be fair, I don't think that the convalescent plasma was really expected to be a game changer in any real manner? It would have been the easiest thing to try in the earlier stages of the pandemic and the lack of any positive numbers/hype before now would tend to indicate there wasn't much of a chance it would be effective.

Everything else attempted is jjst educated guesswork. No great surprise that most of them have failed and, I suppose, you have to take the moderate efficacy of dexamethasone as a plus. If monoclonal antibodies do have some effect, I hope their use is reserved for the patients who require it most of all. The doses of these being tested are apparently huge, so producing anything like enough will be impossible, not to mention costly.

I know that all the vaccines in development are targetted at the spike protein, so hopefully one or more of these will be effective enough.

If not, what next? I assume they would then attempt to develop vaccines attacking a different part of the virus?
 
I thought Trump or someone tied to him did call it a game changer.

And the EUA they granted was heavily criticized.
 
Regeneron is one of the monoclonal antibody candidates undergoing trials. Ought to work in theory, but the cost will be very high and it isn't feasible to quickly scale up production to the required levels due to the large dosage necessary. And, of course, it just might not work as expected!
 
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