Current Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

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I wanted to refute the argument that at launch you're going to be given this wonderful list of cheap nvme drives you can just slot in; the reality is it's going to be expensive too.
That's all I wanted to make the point of, and I have tried and often fallen on deaf ears why this might be the case.
I hope you’re not including me, because I’ve never said that, but you’ve disputed my PoV over the SSD situ - so it can’t be just the above because I agree!? I was simply saying that logic would dictate a cheaper solution quicker than MSs.

Again, now this time for good. Not posting anything else.
Yeah, take a chill pill :)

Edit: XSX SSD otoh is not so exotic. But its relatively small production numbers (especially early on) and custom enclosure will drive the price up, as will the lack of competition from other providers.
That and (more importantly) the ‘p’ word - that’s the biggest reason...I mean, come on how much do you think that case costs when they make a whole controller for 15!?
 
I hope you’re not including me, because I’ve never said that, but you’ve disputed my PoV over the SSD situ - so it can’t be just the above because I agree!? I was simply saying that logic would dictate a cheaper solution quicker than MSs.
Sorry man, I misread that. You're absolutely right, I think I did agree with this point, I recall you made this point in finality. I only asked for the wait and see.
 
What tests? Backwards compatibility tests?

If anything, when running in BC both SSDs will be on very light loads compared to what they can achieve with native games. On BC they're emulating a hard disk drive that has a typical 40MB/s throughput, and the system is probably limited by CPU data decompression well before ever reaching their 2.5GB/s maximum throughput.

Sure they can touch BC but I have seen little on actually playing the games as that as it's basically the same as Xbox One X. No new patches to these games so no real new Series X news.

The new tech is fast resume which if you click between titles has got to be heavy on the SSD. Then we have tests of moving stuff between internal and external. Loading games off external etc.

From what I have seen, the actual playing of BC seems to have fallen to the wayside and most content seems to focus on the SSD speed and various tests performed around this.

This is my reason for thinking these consoles have probably been subjected to SSD torture tests back to back as load time comparisons are done in-between some quick resume.

Just an observation on the situation surrounding the usage of the system atm which won't be typical gamers with hours of a single game and then off or back to Netflix. They are under scrutiny and the only new thing outside of embargo appears to the quick resume and the movement of games to facilitate BC.
 
AutoHDR information should also be available now. I saw one video about it, but I think there may not be too many videos about this because who even has the equipment to make HDR-enabled analysis videos?
 
AutoHDR information should also be available now. I saw one video about it, but I think there may not be too many videos about this because who even has the equipment to make HDR-enabled analysis videos?

They should contract @Cyan out.

Tommy McClain
 
out of respect for another forum member I will not directly quote Jayco
So his issue is that there cannot be a bunch of manufacturers (like this little known company like Samsung) that can produce high quality SSDs and, because they are universally compatible parts instead of using a propietary format, selling them cheaper than the ripoff MS is selling for 270€ (lol). There has to be some hidden downside, there always is for these guys. You should check the PS5 thread.
Firstly, I'll address that I can move positions all the time, if you present a better point or you clarify a point I can move. I have no problems moving on. Secondly, I have debated with a great deal of many people, pro Sony etc, and in the end I still give them the respect that they deserve instead of just writing them off. I will debate with anyone and I won't write them off because I know about their attachment to the device. I think it's rude to do that to someone, to nonchalant toss away their arguments just because they are more invested into an ecosystem then you are. Normally I don't psycho analyze people, but anything I write, you have twisted my wording in a way that makes it impossible for me to get my points across to you. You give me absolutely no affordance that you give to any other member here, and it shows because you think I think 5.5 GB/s is the exotic part of the PS5, an not the controller; so I'm not even sure if it's worth even trying.

So you've twisted my wording in the quote above very specifically to make it seem like I'm pro Xbox here. That there's no way someone can produce something better and cheaper than what Xbox did with their outrageously priced drives. But that was not why I brought them into the conversation. I brought them into the conversation because they needed the drive to fit their profile requirements, and some of those requirements may not have to do with drive performance at all. And those requirements will come at a cost.

You see, you're greatest point here is that the 980 Pro Samsung, is both faster and cheaper than the xbox drive. Therefore you win, and I'm looking pretty stupid. But you're only reading 2 parts of that drive which is the price and read speed. And the reason you suggest it will be cheaper is because the port is non proprietary and sold mass market and it's already faster than the 5.5Gb/s ssd in the PS5. But you know nothing about the perofmrance requires of PS5 and there are likely to be performance implications that are more than likely more than just the read speed. On top of that you still need to factor in acceptable sizes. Standard sizes can range from 30mm (2230), 42mm (2242), 60mm (2260), 80mm (2280), and 110mm (22110). Drive heights can also vary. You can have different socket types and whatever else that has nothing to do with drive performance.

So even if the performance profile is correct, you still can't guarantee to me that the 980 Pro SSD will fit in the PS5 because you don't know what lengths it support, you don't know what heights it will support. The reason to bring up the Xbox SSD is because it very clearly has, a non traditional size, so there is reason behind the madness of building that ridiculous drive in the first place. Yes the customers will pay as a result of this, but in the end that is the cost of a solution to resolve their performance and size characteristics of which both Series consoles have absolutely no room in the chassis for a standard nvme slot.

And so my position of just _sit_ and wait_ to see, is really that. You have nearly no information about what can go in that PS5. And if it so happens that the PS5 will accept the 980 Pro, yay. That's great, everyone wins. If not, then not. But I'm not so sold on the assumption that you are that I could go and buy a 980 Pro today and with plans for it to work in the PS5. No one here should.

There is quite frankly, not enough information. You might be comfortable with less in choosing a position to stand on. But I'm not. You know what's awesome that I use in my job everyday? It's called a sigmoid
It looks like this:
Logistic-curve.png


On the y-axis 1 means true and 0 means false, all we need to do is bring evidence to the table on the X-axis. That's how we do machine learning basically. So if you have 0 information, you can see it's a 50/50 chance of going both ways. If you have 1 piece of information, it leans more true but it's still far from being correct. But you can see once you pass 6 pieces or more of information, the probabilities are being more locked into place. And even if you introduce a small piece of information in the other direction, the probability is still pretty much locked. That means most of the variance around going one way or the other, is when there is next to nothing in terms of information that is available.

That's where I'm at when it comes to positioning for an argument. You guys say, hey there's is 7GB drives available. Okay +2. I say well not all of them meet the threshold criteria for thermal throttling, -1 or -2. Then you say, well you can't etc etc. And then I say, well you don't know about which drive size will fit in there either.
And we go back and forth, and either there's enough push and pull to pull it to a high True factor or False factor. But right now as I see it, we're still debating between -2 and +2 on this sigmoid graph. Far from anything locked. If I'm missing something, bring it up. But right now, you're telling me the minus evidence I'm bringing to the table is just concern trolling. That's not the way I see it. That graph, that's my perspective. As in, if you don't have a strong enough evidence that I can claw you back to the point of inflection, your argument still needs more work. I have no problem leaning 1 way or the other. But do you know why I say that we'll just need to wait and see? Because I don't have enough information to drag it away from the middle either. So we've exhausted our information and we're still in limbo.

So... I'm just going to wait.
 
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That and (more importantly) the ‘p’ word - that’s the biggest reason...I mean, come on how much do you think that case costs when they make a whole controller for 15!?

Undoubtedly margins are the biggest reason for the price, but I think it's possible to underestimate other factors.

For example, the materials used to make the enclosure probably cost a couple of bucks, but making the designs and setting up the production line will be in the millions of dollars at least. As a custom unit not shaped like others, they can't just re-use an existing NVMe production line with minimal changes, and tests of the final unit will require custom rigs with custom physical interfaces. And volumes won't be terribly high, at least at first. Controller manufacture will outstrip expansion drive manufacture by many times.

I think that expansion drives are going to be more expensive to make per unit, all things included, than adding one to the XSX itself.

I suspect that Seagate got the job because when MS put out a tender they were prepared to eat some of the setup costs themselves, in order to get decent margins on a product with a long shelf life and a captive audience. Multiple years for a particular drive, with decent margins even when it's getting old, is probably quite an attractive proposition.

With PS5, Sony have got around having to manufacture (or have manufactured) a specific, custom drive. But there's no free lunch, and so they're going to have a lot of testing to do on compatible products. It also means that early on there will be only a few options (possibly only one or even none on launch day) and these too will initially be very expensive.
 
Undoubtedly margins are the biggest reason for the price, but I think it's possible to underestimate other factors.

For example, the materials used to make the enclosure probably cost a couple of bucks, but making the designs and setting up the production line will be in the millions of dollars at least. As a custom unit not shaped like others, they can't just re-use an existing NVMe production line with minimal changes, and tests of the final unit will require custom rigs with custom physical interfaces. And volumes won't be terribly high, at least at first. Controller manufacture will outstrip expansion drive manufacture by many times.

I think that expansion drives are going to be more expensive to make per unit, all things included, than adding one to the XSX itself.

I suspect that Seagate got the job because when MS put out a tender they were prepared to eat some of the setup costs themselves, in order to get decent margins on a product with a long shelf life and a captive audience. Multiple years for a particular drive, with decent margins even when it's getting old, is probably quite an attractive proposition.

With PS5, Sony have got around having to manufacture (or have manufactured) a specific, custom drive. But there's no free lunch, and so they're going to have a lot of testing to do on compatible products. It also means that early on there will be only a few options (possibly only one or even none on launch day) and these too will initially be very expensive.

Seagate got the job because they’re Xbox’s existing branded drive parter for USB platter drives first and foremost.
I expect we’ll see other ones after whatever window they have expires.
 
Given the SoC will emit a lot of heat, isn't it a good thing that the system is able to remove it quickly? In a perfect world our electronics would be super efficient and waste no energy in the form of heat, but in our world we've got physics.
 
Undoubtedly margins are the biggest reason for the price, but I think it's possible to underestimate other factors.

For example, the materials used to make the enclosure probably cost a couple of bucks, but making the designs and setting up the production line will be in the millions of dollars at least. As a custom unit not shaped like others, they can't just re-use an existing NVMe production line with minimal changes, and tests of the final unit will require custom rigs with custom physical interfaces. And volumes won't be terribly high, at least at first. Controller manufacture will outstrip expansion drive manufacture by many times.

I think that expansion drives are going to be more expensive to make per unit, all things included, than adding one to the XSX itself.

I suspect that Seagate got the job because when MS put out a tender they were prepared to eat some of the setup costs themselves, in order to get decent margins on a product with a long shelf life and a captive audience. Multiple years for a particular drive, with decent margins even when it's getting old, is probably quite an attractive proposition.

With PS5, Sony have got around having to manufacture (or have manufactured) a specific, custom drive. But there's no free lunch, and so they're going to have a lot of testing to do on compatible products. It also means that early on there will be only a few options (possibly only one or even none on launch day) and these too will initially be very expensive.
I get the initial high costs, but I can guarantee the price will be far more consistent that materials/production costs where’s PS5 compatible drives will almost certainly get cheaper much quicker.
 
I get the initial high costs, but I can guarantee the price will be far more consistent that materials/production costs where’s PS5 compatible drives will almost certainly get cheaper much quicker.

Yes, I think PS5's SSD costs will get cheaper faster too, especially given the larger number of manufacturers and the much greater number of subsequent retail outlets providing PS5 options.

I think the first PS5 compatible drive will likely see a bit of a price surge and some degree of scalping, but the long game favours increased competition.

We will need to see to what extent MS are behind expansion drive pricing, and to what degree they (and their partner(s?)) are willing to reduce their margins to be competitive at the level of the overall platform. Their SSD is fundamentally less performant than a PS5 equivalent expansion drive, so that may allow them to keep some margin but be similar on price.

MS's solution may end up being very competitive in latency, but that would be due to the way they map data to a physical address and probably not down to the performance of the SSD itself.
 
Yes, I think PS5's SSD costs will get cheaper faster too, especially given the larger number of manufacturers and the much greater number of subsequent retail outlets providing PS5 options.

I think the first PS5 compatible drive will likely see a bit of a price surge and some degree of scalping, but the long game favours increased competition.

We will need to see to what extent MS are behind expansion drive pricing, and to what degree they (and their partner(s?)) are willing to reduce their margins to be competitive at the level of the overall platform. Their SSD is fundamentally less performant than a PS5 equivalent expansion drive, so that may allow them to keep some margin but be similar on price.

MS's solution may end up being very competitive in latency, but that would be due to the way they map data to a physical address and probably not down to the performance of the SSD itself.

I don't see the PS5 option driving down SSDs prices. Can't really expect a ton of console gamers to pop open their PS5s to install M.2 SSDs. It's a process that amounts to way more than unloosening a screw and popping in some batteries. Its probably why MS went the route they took with Seagate.

Plus, XSX drives price can't be simply explained by the cost of tech behind it once you consider that Seagate sells Xbox One supported 3.0 1 TB SSD for $199.

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/seagat...nilObVM_Dz-xD2uih8xoCdKwQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Their 2 TB xbox branded 3.0 SSDs go for $379.
 
I don't see the PS5 option driving down SSDs prices. Can't really expect a ton of console gamers to pop open their PS5 to install M.2 SSDs. It's a process that amounts to way more than unloosening a screw and popping in some batteries. Its probably why MS went the route they took with Seagate.

Plus, XSX drives price can't be simply explained by the cost of tech behind it once you consider that Seagate sells Xbox One supported 3.0 1 TB SSD for $199.

I think it's more that being part of a market that includes millions or tens of millions of PC buys / builders means there is increased competition between providers.

PS5 expansion is a bit more involved than adding a micro SD card to your phone, but not terribly much more so. Remove a plate, remove a screw, put in your industry standard bit of circuit board. The main thing is getting the right drive.

No doubt MS's solution is simpler, but I don't think PS5 SSD addition will be beyond the capabilities of most gamers.
 
I think it's more that being part of a market that includes millions or tens of millions of PC buys / builders means there is increased competition between providers.

PS5 expansion is a bit more involved than adding a micro SD card to your phone, but not terribly much more so. Remove a plate, remove a screw, put in your industry standard bit of circuit board. The main thing is getting the right drive.

No doubt MS's solution is simpler, but I don't think PS5 SSD addition will be beyond the capabilities of most gamers.

This is easier than assemble an IKEA piece of furniture.
 
Which means we’ll have a very wide selection of SSDs (and prices!) to choose from, as long as they’re approved to use.

I think the physical limiter may be what sort of heatsinks might get in the way, as the space above the drive isn't standardized.
I am wondering about what the acceptable performance metrics are for a drive. A drive that fits might be one with no real heatsink, which would fade in performance due to heat. The PS5's main drive may have some okay cooling since it touches a large metal sheet. There's also the concern of cheap drives with potential performance cliffs that differ from the PS5's custom one. How closely will Sony track how those might affect the experience?
 
Where do you see the 2TB version. I see only 500GB and 1TB. The 500GB is $120.

Samsung on the other hand has the 1TB at $230 as you said however if you notice the 1TB 970 Evo, the price used to be $230 and is now $170(Not that we expect the 970 Evo to be used on the PS5 because we don't). The competition with other manufactureres might drop the price of the Samsung down a little when they do release their own PCI-e 4.0 NVMe that supports the PS5. Then you have PC builders also buying the memory module and prices might drop even further and one year down the line you will have the Samsung 1TB 980 Pro at around the price of the now 970 Evo.

Also note that the 970 Pro 1TB price is $350 so for Samsung to release the 980 Pro 1TB at $230 is truly astonishing as you would expect them to have it replace the price point of the 970 Pro 1TB($350).

Consumers wins in this regard imo.

1 year down the line, can you see the Seagate 3.0 1TB Xbox dropping in price if it's only Seagate manufacturing them? Yes, we can hope that the Tweet above from MS XB VP actually means that other manufactureres will make their own versions, but as already mentioned, Seagate won't be happy if they had a exclusivity deal with MS. Of course MS will likely be able to pay off any likely penalties Seagate should impose if there is a break with a exclusivity deal, but with all the money MS have it's likely no a big deal.
 
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