Microsoft rumored to be buying...... [2020-04, 2020-07, 2020-11]

[Johnny Awesome]

taking a chance like this would of be far far far more successful instead of doing another rare / liongames / ensemble i.e their track record on purchasing big video game companies is pretty poor

I don't know why some people are so down on the Lionhead & Rare acquisitions. Fable is a good franchise. Kameo was a very good and underrated game. Viva Pinata was cool. Sea of Thieves is fantastic and successful. The new Battletoads is an absolute blast and Everwild looks really interesting too. As an Xbox fan I'm really glad MS grabbed these studios.

 

[cheapchips]

I don't know why some people are so down on the Lionhead & Rare acquisitions. Fable is a good franchise. Kameo was a very good and underrated game. Viva Pinata was cool. Sea of Thieves is fantastic and successful. The new Battletoads is an absolute blast and Everwild looks really interesting too. As an Xbox fan I'm really glad MS grabbed these studios.

Lionhead delivered nothing in the One generation and then the studio shut. In eight years Rare delivered Kinnect sports.* That's why people are down on them. Thankfully things are looking up for Rare since Sea of Thieves. That wasn't a "Rare's back!" story with it's initial launch. It's take time to hit it's stride.

*Killer Instinct was Double Helix + someone else. I'll gloss of Rare Replay, which is great, but not a new title.

 

[zed]

I don't know why some people are so down on the Lionhead & Rare acquisitions. Fable is a good franchise. Kameo was a very good and underrated game. Viva Pinata was cool. Sea of Thieves is fantastic and successful. The new Battletoads is an absolute blast and Everwild looks really interesting too. As an Xbox fan I'm really glad MS grabbed these studios.

Sure you may like these games but quality certainly undeniably decreased after MS took over.
I dont know what was worse Lionheart studio getting cancel or Rare going from producing 6 out of 10 90+ metacritic aclaimed games to 0

Lionheart average metacritic = 86
Black & White 90
Fable 85
Black & White 2 75
The Movies 84
-- MS -- average metacritic = 71.25
Fable II 89
Fable III 80
Fable Heroes 55
Fable: The Journey 61
studio became defunct

rare, console only titles the 10 previous and 10 after MS took over, average metacritic = 87.8

GoldenEye 007 96
Diddy Kong Racing 88
Banjo-Kazooie 92
Jet Force Gemini 80
Donkey Kong 64 90
Perfect Dark 97
Mickey's Speedway USA 71
Banjo-Tooie 90
Conker's Bad Fur Day 92
Star Fox Adventures 82
-- MS-- average metacritic = 76.1
Grabbed by the Ghoulies 66
Conker: Live & Reloaded 78
Kameo 79
Perfect Dark Zero 81
Viva Piñata 84
Jetpac Refuelled 73
Viva Piñata: Trouble in Paradise 82
Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts 79
Kinect Sports 73
Kinect Sports: Season Two 66

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I forgot about the Kinect stuff. Even more reason to think Rare was a good idea. They sold 24 million Kinects because of Rare if I remember right. Also Killer Instinct IP was also great to get. My kids and I logged hours on that game when XOne launched. I don't care what the scores were. Part of that was bias because they weren't Nintendo affiliated anymore. Also, they've improved a lot lately.

 

[Cyan]

ooops, everything seemed so calm, but...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1311234649901981696

 

[Silenti]

Editing that original post was getting a bit sketchy. So I deleted the first post above, rewrote it and updated the IP/ developer information. I am not even sure it still belongs in a “Microsoft rumored to be buying” thread anymore. I have broken it into 2 posts with the second showing just IP/ Developers/ Publishers, etc. Potential targets. That way you can skip my ramblings.


Soon to be players?

Apple - Cash $194B - Market Cap - $1.92T
Facebook - Cash $58B - Market Cap - $726B
Alphabet (Google) - Cash $117B - Market Cap - $981B
Amazon - Cash $71.4B - Market Cap - $1.55T


I have listed the holders of the DC Comics, LOTR and Marvel/ Star Wars licenses here as potential targets/ combination partners. This may get more interesting considering that the above players have interests in video streaming services. Which could place companies like Time Warner (Warner Bros, TBS, HBO - does not include Time Warner Cable - $108.4B), The Saul-Zantz Company (LOTR) (Private - No clue), or even Disney ($224.1B) in the firing line as acquisition/ combination targets. To date, Facebook has purchased Oculus, but none of the companies above have acquired other companies for the IP. Video or video game. Some IP licensing (Alphabet – LOTR, Black Company / Apple Issac Asminov) has taken place of course, but perhaps acquiring existing IP is not in the playbook of the above companies. Amazon and Facebook have already shown a desire to develop their own in house dev studios. Crapshoot though that may be. It may well be that MS’s moves will force their hands. Or we could see years before another Disney/ Fox level deal. With MS already at 15m subscribers and counting, they could pull out a large lead which could require a major acquisition to compete.

Since there is/ was much talk of "Who is MS buying next?" or "Sony should buy X to teach them a lesson!" I thought it would be handy to have a list of the major companies and their valuations. Outright buying any number of these companies would likely have major legal and/or political repercussions. I did dig around to try and provide a decent, ball park figure when no public market-cap value was available. They are listed in order of valuation after listing MS and Sony's cash and valuation. I included the market cap since payment terms can include stock, debt financing, cash, etc. (I did not deduct the $7.5B purchase price of Bethesda from MS's cash holdings since we do not know the real payment terms.) These figures are about a week old. Any mistakes are more likely mine than the source's. Separating longer term publishing deals and ownership gets a little difficult at times.

Since I first wrote this post, Amazon has announced Luna and the Apple/ MS Xbox exchanges of AppleTV and XCloud on iOS rumors have emerged.

 

[Silenti]

The bold is to indicate companies I would consider to have serious political or legal complications if purchased. Not companies that could cause an uproar – like say Take 2, but companies where monopoly concerns and national government concerns come into play. I did my best to sort publishing deals, IP ownership, etc. None-the-less, I am certain mistakes have been made.


Apple - Cash $194B - Market Cap - $1.92T
Facebook - Cash $58B - Market Cap - $726B
Alphabet (Google) - Cash $117B - Market Cap - $981B
Amazon - Cash $71.4B - Market Cap - $1.55T
Sony - Cash $31B - Market Cap - $95B
MS - $136.6B - Market Cap - $1.52T

Nintendo - $75.3B - Don't think I need to list them.

Activision-Blizzard - $63.8B - Call of Duty series, Crash Bandicoot series, Guitar Hero series, Skylanders series, Spyro the Dragon series, Tony Hawk's series, Diablo series, Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm, Overwatch, StarCraft series, Warcraft series, and the Candy Crush Saga.

Valve - $52.5B - Steam, Half-Life, Left 4 Dead, Team Fortress, DOTA, Counter-Strike. (Allegedly, from Sam at ArsTechnica - MS has continually attempted to buy and Newell has continually said no.)

EA - $37.9B - FIFA, Madden, Sims, Bioware, NHL, Star Wars, Respawn, Battlefield, NBA Live, UFC, Need for Speed, Popcap, and Dice.

Take-Two Interactive - $19.01B - 2K, Rockstar, GTA, Red Dead, Irrational Games (Bioshock)

EPIC - $18B – Tencent is a heavy investor (~40%) but is allegedly pretty hands off with gaming development. It appears Fortnite and a few mobile games are their only IP.

Bandai Namco - $16B - Price is reflextive of Bandai Namco Holdings which is, apparently, the largest toy manufacturer in the world. Otherwise I would list them with Sega and Paradox. - Time Crisis, Tekken, Soul Calibur, Katamari Damacy

CD Projekt - >$10B Company considered to be going nowhere but up. P/E projected to double in 3 years.

Ubisoft - $10.5B – Red Storm (Tom Clancy), Assassin's Creed, Watch Dogs, Far Cry, Anno, Just Dance

Square Enix - $7.6B – Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Nier Automata, Tomb Raider, DeusEx, Thief

Embracer Group - $7.2B (THQ, Koch Media, Saber), Darksiders, Remnant: From the Ashes, Kingdom Come: Deliverance, Metro Series, Destroy All Humans

Capcom - $6B – Monster Hunter, Okami, Resident Evil, Devil May Cry, Streetfighter, Dragon’s Dogma, Dead Rising

KOEI Tecmo - $5.8B – Hyrule Warriors, Ninja Gaiden, Nioh, Fatal Frame, DOA

Konami - $5.3B – Pro Evolution Soccer, MGS, Contra, Castlevania, Silent Hill

Roblox - 4-8B according to the Azbat linked article below. I know nothing about Roblox.

Warner Bros Games - $4.5B (I simply listed the highest speculated price from the previous rumors. Potential license transfer issues. Rumor that the max bid was only $2B.)


Paradox Interactive- $3.2B - Battletech, Hearts of Iron, Europa Universalis, Cities Skylines – Note: Sorting out this company’s IP from its developers, naming rights, etc, was a nightmare. Take all these with a grain of salt.

Sega - $3B – Sonic, Bayonetta (½ owned by Nintendo), Streets of Rage, Panzer Dragoon, Football Manager, Phantasy Star, Yakuza, some of Shenmue III (this one is confusing)



Gearbox – Privately held. This felt about the correct spot. As near as I can tell, the only IP they actually own is Borderlands. The rest are developer deals for others properties.

Stardock - $135M (Private. Used really dirty math based on old revenue numbers. Company has had its ups and downs as of late it seems.) Star Control, Ashes of the Singularity, Galactic Civilizations, Sins of a Solar Empire, Offworld Trading Compnay

Daedalic - $100M (Management owned after a buy out as Bastei Lubbe wanted to divest. BL declared the business model unsustainable. Hard to determine any real value. In financial trouble. LOTR License.) Desperado series and Shadow Tactics :Blades of the Shogun appear to be under Mimimi Games. I have no idea what IP they actually own.

Bloober - Public - `$80m. - Medium, Observer. Would be a nice pickup and Bloober has, allegedly, been in acquisition talks for awhile.

GSC Gameworld – Private. Perhaps running on the financial edge. Ukrainian developer of Stalker.

Platinum Games – Private. While making excellent games, they do not appear to have any original IP. Although resurrecting Scalebound doesn’t appear out of the question.

Moon Studios – Private. Ori.

Asobo Studio – Private. MS Flight Simulator

Tonic Games Group/ Mediatonic - Private? Can find nothing. Fall Guys

 

[eastmen]

Might be to late for the other big players. MS has been throwing cash around and has or is close to closing some deals. So prices are going up. The other companies will have to open their wallets up even bigger and aside from Sony/ Nintendo they will be starting from worse positions compared to MS.

For example. IF Apple goes out and puts in a bid for Capcom and wins. What did they get ? Are any of the titles you listed enough for a console to survive ? Is it enough for people to go out and subscribe to a streaming service? For apple it be smarter to just do a apple music type play. Get the third parties to sell streaming rights (maybe even exclusive rights) and go at it from there. But does Apple have the streaming tech for that ?

Amazon opened up their wallets already buying the rights to branch off crytek into lumbaryard , new world and other games i haven't heard boo from. They have twitch and imo its best to roll their streaming play into twitch and bundle it as a Twitch prime subscription . It was discussed heavily during my tenure

Google is another odd ball . I think stadia is going to leave them timid with getting back into the market. So I can't see them dumping a lot of money into it. But i could be wrong. I think it be best for them to integrate stadia with youtube and while your watching a streamer play you can play too like a picture in picture deal or just full out launch into the game if the stream interests you that much and you want to play.

Facebook ? They could buy some small studios for VR but I dont' think they care about gaming. I think they will just partner with MS to making facebook gaming more popular . VR is going to be big for them and I just don't think streaming is going to work for vr . It barely works when streaming through usb on a desktop pc to a headset.

 

[Silenti]

Might be to late for the other big players. MS has been throwing cash around and has or is close to closing some deals. So prices are going up. The other companies will have to open their wallets up even bigger and aside from Sony/ Nintendo they will be starting from worse positions compared to MS.

For example. IF Apple goes out and puts in a bid for Capcom and wins. What did they get ? Are any of the titles you listed enough for a console to survive ? Is it enough for people to go out and subscribe to a streaming service? For apple it be smarter to just do a apple music type play. Get the third parties to sell streaming rights (maybe even exclusive rights) and go at it from there. But does Apple have the streaming tech for that ?

Amazon opened up their wallets already buying the rights to branch off crytek into lumbaryard , new world and other games i haven't heard boo from. They have twitch and imo its best to roll their streaming play into twitch and bundle it as a Twitch prime subscription . It was discussed heavily during my tenure

Google is another odd ball . I think stadia is going to leave them timid with getting back into the market. So I can't see them dumping a lot of money into it. But i could be wrong. I think it be best for them to integrate stadia with youtube and while your watching a streamer play you can play too like a picture in picture deal or just full out launch into the game if the stream interests you that much and you want to play.

Facebook ? They could buy some small studios for VR but I dont' think they care about gaming. I think they will just partner with MS to making facebook gaming more popular . VR is going to be big for them and I just don't think streaming is going to work for vr . It barely works when streaming through usb on a desktop pc to a headset.

No real disagreement on my part. I just struggle to see everyone allowing MS to run away with the game. Assuming the whole subscription service idea works out. My bet, of course, is that it will. But I cannot prove that.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

You might want to put Sonic on the Sega list. LOL

I looked at the numbers the other day and noticed that Sony only marginally beat MS in the US market this time, so MS is poised to at least split the NA market with them next time.

The EU though was 4:1 Sony this time and I still believe that Japan is mostly a write off (90:1 Sony), although maybe not with the XSS.

Therefore MS's acquisition should target what people in the EU care about, which is Fallout, which is Bethesda. LOL

So what's next? Konami for Pro Evolution Soccer would be good probably. Capcom for RE and Monster Hunter. Ubisoft for Assassin's Creed and Rayman. Eidos for Tomb Raider, but may as well grab Square then for the whole thing and a shot at Japan at least.

All my rambling aside, I'm thinking MS could do a lot with Sega for the price. Most everything else gets expensive. One way of looking at it is that MS paid about $1 billion per studio and major IP with Bethesda. They care about IPs and functioning studios. Does Sega have 3 functioning studios with 3 amazing IPs? They probably do: Sonic, Sakura Wars, Football Manager and Yakuza. That makes them a good target IMO.

You could do a similar analysis with the other targets and probably conclude that they all have $1 billion studio and IP combos.

Another way to look at things, that I might tackle later: What does MS want to deny Sony?

Sony probably doesn't give a rip about Sonic, but they certainly care about Final Fantasy....

The more I think about it, the more I think MS would be smart to grab Konami or Square. Sony fans would lose their minds with those ones.

 

[eastmen]

No real disagreement on my part. I just struggle to see everyone allowing MS to run away with the game. Assuming the whole subscription service idea works out. My bet, of course, is that it will. But I cannot prove that.

I don't think its about companies letting MS run away with things. MS has been in this market for almost 2 decades. Say what you will but MS has its own slew of gaming ip that the other companies listed don't. So an apple / amazon / google would either have to go out and buy that history and like i said i don't think a single company will do that for them, they can do it organically and spend decades growing a gaming brand with new ip or a mix.

I mean you can look at EA with Origins. They are one of the biggest third party publishers and they are going back to steam. You can look at amazon and they tried by buying lumberyard and starting a bunch of projects but they are all delayed or have gone radio silent.

Its not as simple as buying up properties and entering the field. Look at the rejection of MS that still exists for a big company coming in and buying up games. 2 decades later and its still an issue. Imagine apple coming in and buying 30 or 40B worth of game studios and locking them all away to IOS ? Or amazon locking it all up to luna or google stadia ?

I dunno.

 

[Silenti]

In honor of eastmen's post (https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/2161590/) -hmmmm. 1 at around 10B, one at or below 5B.....

So, for around ~5B:

Capcom - $6B, KOEI Tecmo - $5.8B, and Konami - $5.3B are all a bit above the 5B mark. Also keeping in mind, a buyout cost of a company not in financial trouble can increase rapidly. Those would cause quite the stir. Probably not enough to cause the Japanese government to nix the deal but.... Capcom or Tecmo would be huge feathers in MS's cap. Assuming customers were not so angered as to walk away entirely rather than have a GamePass sub or buy an Xbox. The price on any of these could easily head toward that $10B mark.

WB Games is allegedly off the market. Paradox is mostly PC and rather niche. Hard for me to say that since I play their games. Sega at 3B, I just cannot see them being worth it. I know they are allegedly going after a Japanese studio and there are all kinds of little not so subtle hints it is Sega, but I just cannot buy it. Not at $3B. You could probably get Asobo, Moon, Platinum and GSC for substantially less than that. What do I know though. Maybe it is worth it and I just don't see it.


at 10B- far shorter list: I previously marked all 3 with political implications.

CD Projekt - >$10B - All things considered, this could easily cost a lot more than $10B. Double wouldn't surprise me. You could probably get an ARM/ UK/ Nvidia like deal for it though. The studio stays in Poland basically.

Ubisoft - $10.5B - Lots of RPG IP. Market cap has in creased to $11.2B since the previous figure. I am struggling with how involved the French government might become. I just don't know enough. Not sure if the sexual harassment/ bullying scandal would cause concern or not. Buying it out could place it back as front page news again. Though doing so in the US, in an election year.... Yeah, you might get away with it.

Square Enix - 7.6B Well. You think buying Bethesda caused an uproar. I cannot imagine what this would do in Japan. The equivalent of Take 2 or EA (with its sports and Star Wars licenses intact) levels of howling?

I have trouble seeing Ubisoft. For a number of reasons. Price, major 3rd Party without really being system seller kinds of titles, politics. Not to my reckoning anyway. CD Projekt would cost too much. It just would. If you got it for less than 15 or 16B I would be surprised. Leaving Square-Enix...

Someone help me figure this out. It's eating at me. Total speculation, yes, but interesting as hell. I mean, What would you do? The more I look at Square.....

 

[AzBat]

@Silenti I think you're missing out on some fringe console/mobile companies. Microsoft should look at...

Spoiler

Roblox Would go great with Minecraft.

Roblox, the company behind the massive game creation platform of the same name, is reportedly planning to go public early next year, though the exact form that action will take is still up for debate.

According to a Reuters report, Roblox is working with investment banks to list on the US stock market. But while most do so through an initial public offering, Roblox is reportedly also considering a direct listing that would allow it to do so without selling new shares like it would in the case of an IPO.

Sources speaking to the publication note that that decision is subject to market conditions but, according to people familiar with the matter, Roblox believes going public would double its recent $4 billion valuation.

Roblox is an interesting giant in the game industry in that its business deals mostly with hosting user-made games for its massive sandbox platform Roblox. The company routinely makes headlines for the slice of its profits that go to the creators of those user-made games, a total that increases by the millions year after year.

For 2020, Roblox expects its development community to earn over $250 million, up from the $110 million estimated for the year before. All the way back in 2017, that total was only $30 million.

Rumors of this stock market debut follow just weeks after another game industry giant, Unity, underwent its own previously-rumored IPO. In that case, the game engine maker walked away with a $13.7 billion valuation following a $1.3 billion IPO.

https://gamasutra.com/view/news/371237/Report_Roblox_readies_to_go_public_in_early_2021.php

Tommy McClain

 

[Silenti]

Would you believe I hardly even know what Roblox is? I know the name, that is about all. Certainly add them easily enough

 

[AzBat]

Would you believe I hardly even know what Roblox is? I know the name, that is about all. Certainly add them easily enough

You must not have any kids. My daughter watches a YouTuber that plays a lot of Roblox. So she's really into it. You can definitely tell they're raking in the dough selling Robux to kids. I had to put security measures in place to stop my daughter buying them & she can't even read yet. LOL

Tommy McClain

 

[Nisaaru]

UBI 10.5B looks completely undervalued to me compared to a lot other listed companies. Most of them could dream about UBI's pipeline in regards to content quantity/productivity at above average or higher quality.

 

[eastmen]

@Silenti I think you're missing out on some fringe console/mobile companies. Microsoft should look at...

Spoiler

Roblox Would go great with Minecraft.



https://gamasutra.com/view/news/371237/Report_Roblox_readies_to_go_public_in_early_2021.php

Tommy McClain

The problem with roblox is its just one game and its on multiple platforms. How does it strengthen the newly expanded xbox platform ?

No if MS is opening its pockets its for a company with a lot of teams. They want bang for their buck so well known and well selling games that can be produced constantly or swapped out for another game and swapped back in.


Look at it this way. Lets say the average big AAA RPG takes 5 years to make. Thats okay now because MS has Avowed , Fable, Starfield , Edler Scrolls , Outer limits , Fallout back to Avowed and so on in whatever order. So they have 6 Large RPGS and boom back again to the First RPG that should have a sequel ready. Perhaps they can even get 2 RPGS out a year at some point.

Look at shooters. Halo , Gears , Doom , Rage, Quake , Wolfenstein , PD back to Halo again.

Look for MS to continue to expand these and other genres . So look we have Age of Empires and Halo wars and expect them to figure out a few more titles in that genre be it through previous ips or newly purchased. Look at Gears Tactics and Wasteland . Look for them to do the same with either new purchases or existing ip.


I told you guy and you guys thoughts I was nuts. But MS wants a AAA game ever 2-3 months and they want to hit that mark by the middle or so of this generation. They want people to feel that Gamepass is such an incredible value that they just go ahead either stay paying monthly and not think twice or buy years at a time. They will make even more money because they will come out with game content drops that cost money for the game pass games. Yes Avowed will be a 50 hour rpg or something crazy but I believe (And i don't have a source on this) but there will be additional content packs that will cost money.

They also want to get away from people claiming they are just Halo , Forza and gears. So you'll actually see longer periods of time between the releases of those games.

The last thing to look for are GAS games. Sea of Thieves has done extremely well for them. They are going to want a lot of content like that because its easy to continue to drop content into them so people keep their subscriptions. I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up a small MMO studio or two . They have some great properties now that can work really well as an mmo on game pass

 

[Deleted member 11852]

The problem with roblox is its just one game and its on multiple platforms. How does it strengthen the newly expanded xbox platform ?

Roblox is a game creation platform, not a single game.

 

[eastmen]

Roblox is a game creation platform, not a single game.

eh its all crappy mini games inside of a single launcher. The amount of money roblox will want for their ip shows how little value they actually are. Also again its an app that depends on being on ios and andriod. So MS is going to spend 8B or so for an app that doesn't strengthen the xbox platform.

 

[AzBat]

Don't understimate the buying power of kids' parents. Nintendo & Minecraft says Hi.

Tommy McClain