Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Also there's a higher incidence in the young in these numbers who are socialising more. When the disease starts spreading from these to older folk and those with underlying conditions, the death toll will increase.

I expect the end result will basically be the ditching of relationships with the older generation who'll just be expected to fend for themselves hunkered down in their homes until either herd immunity is reached or a vaccine is made. That way it'll be their fault for dying as they didn't stay safe which is their responsibility, and society can keep a clear conscience.

Ignoring the last hyperbole, that is actually a valid strategy when you do not believe that you can actually beat the virus.
 
The positivity rate in southern Florida is over 27%. Normal for this pandemic was 5%. Other regions are seeing over 11% positive rates.

That is likely more than enough to start seeing herd immunity effects, as I've said before ... we're all Sweden now.
 
Economy has larger lag ... we ain't seen nothing yet of the misery this will cause. Just wait two more months :p
 
Testing is down to 13.5K.

Unfortunately, New cases are still at high levels with +743. Today's figures would put the state it at 5.5% positivity rate for the days new tests. Cuyahoga County had +137 new cases today. There were 45 deaths today, more than their average.

So this is still in their worst moments ever. If the new cases don't drop, I fear the numbers will drastically increase leading up to the upcoming Fourth of July Holiday week and be the start of a new surge.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

upload_2020-6-30_14-52-38.png

Here is the raw data for the last few days:

upload_2020-6-30_14-51-36.png

Code:
Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-06-01;    398,066;    9,598;    34,055;    35,984;    4,508;    6,112;    2,206;    471;    63;    51
2020-06-02;    407,450;    9,384;    34,858;    36,350;    4,581;    6,176;    2,258;    366;    64;    52
2020-06-03;    423,521;    16,071;    36,232;    36,792;    4,669;    6,251;    2,299;    442;    75;    41
2020-06-04;    434,608;    11,087;    37,181;    37,282;    4,732;    6,312;    2,339;    490;    61;    40
2020-06-05;    443,533;    8,925;    37,944;    37,758;    4,789;    6,385;    2,355;    476;    73;    16
2020-06-06;    455,823;    12,290;    38,996;    38,111;    4,827;    6,460;    2,370;    353;    75;    15
2020-06-07;    466,279;    10,456;    39,890;    38,476;    4,858;    6,497;    2,377;    365;    37;    7
2020-06-08;    473,988;    7,709;    40,550;    38,837;    4,910;    6,550;    2,404;    361;    53;    27
2020-06-09;    487,583;    13,595;    41,713;    39,162;    4,939;    6,620;    2,421;    325;    70;    17
2020-06-10;    499,019;    11,436;    42,691;    39,575;    5,011;    6,693;    2,457;    413;    73;    36
2020-06-11;    509,699;    10,680;    43,605;    40,004;    5,057;    6,753;    2,490;    429;    60;    33
2020-06-12;    520,813;    11,114;    44,556;    40,424;    5,112;    6,814;    2,508;    420;    61;    18
2020-06-13;    535,943;    15,130;    45,850;    40,848;    5,144;    6,864;    2,554;    424;    50;    46
2020-06-14;    543,260;    7,317;    46,476;    41,148;    5,175;    6,895;    2,557;    300;    31;    3
2020-06-15;    554,128;    10,868;    47,406;    41,576;    5,220;    6,948;    2,573;    428;    53;    16
2020-06-16;    565,034;    10,906;    48,339;    42,010;    5,271;    7,007;    2,597;    434;    59;    24
2020-06-17;    581,444;    16,410;    49,743;    42,422;    5,336;    7,051;    2,611;    412;    44;    14
2020-06-18;    596,875;    15,431;    51,063;    43,122;    5,404;    7,104;    2,633;    700;    53;    22
2020-06-19;    612,854;    15,979;    52,430;    43,731;    5,481;    7,167;    2,667;    609;    63;    34
2020-06-20;    626,765;    13,911;    53,620;    44,262;    5,555;    7,201;    2,697;    531;    34;    30
2020-06-21;    639,991;    13,226;    54,752;    44,808;    5,633;    7,242;    2,700;    546;    41;    3
2020-06-22;    656,318;    16,327;    56,148;    45,537;    5,734;    7,292;    2,704;    729;    50;    4
2020-06-23;    667,077;    10,759;    57,069;    46,127;    5,820;    7,379;    2,735;    590;    87;    31
2020-06-24;    680,687;    13,610;    58,233;    46,759;    5,964;    7,447;    2,755;    632;    68;    20
2020-06-25;    696,200;    15,513;    59,560;    47,651;    6,111;    7,502;    2,772;    892;    55;    17
2020-06-26;    718,086;    21,886;    61,433;    48,638;    6,287;    7,570;    2,788;    987;    68;    16
2020-06-27;    741,353;    23,267;    63,423;    49,455;    6,429;    7,624;    2,804;    817;    54;    16
2020-06-28;    753,246;    11,893;    64,441;    50,309;    6,571;    7,681;    2,807;    854;    57;    3
2020-06-29;    770,860;    17,614;    65,947;    51,046;    6,694;    7,746;    2,818;    737;    65;    11
2020-06-30;    784,362;    13,502;    67,103;    51,789;    6,831;    7,839;    2,863;    743;    93;    45
 
As of now, Florida is reporting +6,093 new cases since yesterday putting their 28 day surge streak at 94,987 total.

Arizona is at 79,215 with +2228 new cases. Georgia is at 79,417 but have not reported today's numbers. So within a day or two Arizona will move into 9th spot.

They will only be behind New York (417,777), California (223,981), New Jersey (176,399), Texas (159,310), Florida (152,434), Illinois (143,514), Massachusetts (108,768), and Pennsylvania (90,834).
 
EDIT 7/02/2020:

At least 152 cases of coronavirus are linked to a bar in East Lansing, Michigan, health officials said.

The current cases that were traced to Harper's Restaurant & Brew Pub "includes 128 primary cases and 24 secondary cases," Amanda Darche, a spokesperson for the Ingham Health Department, told CNN.

---------- Original Post Starts Here ----------


At least 85 people connected with visit to Michigan bar test positive for coronavirus


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...bar-test-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB166LAx
The Ingham County Health Department is asking anyone who visited Harper's Restaurant & Brewpub, outside of Michigan State University in East Lansing, between June 12 and 20, to self-quarantine for two weeks.

As of Saturday, 85 people who visited the bar between those dates or have come in contact with people who did have tested positive for coronavirus.

When the Ingham County Health Department announced the outbreak on June 23, 14 people who visited the bar had tested positive. The next day, 34 people had tested positive, the department said.

At that point, all of the people who tested positive were between the ages of 18 and 23. None had been hospitalized, and most had mild symptoms. Four were asymptomatic.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:06 a.m.: Over 100 cases linked to single bar in Michigan

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...ned-it-was-like-covid-didnt-exist/ar-BB168RUc
At least 107 new cases of COVID-19 have been linked to a bar in East Lansing, Michigan, officials said.

The Ingham County Health Department is asking anyone who went to Harper's Restaurant & Brew Pub between June 12 and June 20 to quarantine themselves for 14 days since their visit and watch for symptoms.

The infected individuals are between the ages of 16 and 28, and none have been hospitalized so far. Most of the cases have had mild symptoms, with 28 people having no symptoms at all. At least 40% are Michigan State University students or recent graduates, officials said.

Just 12 of the cases are from secondary transmission, meaning people who were in contact with a primary case but did not go to the bar themselves, officials said.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Customers at a Michigan college bar linked to at least 133 COVID-19 cases say the outbreak might finally be a 'wake-up call' for young people

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...e-a-wake-up-call-for-young-people/ar-BB16dmb9
A college bar in Michigan has been linked to at least 133 COVID-19 cases in the last two weeks, and customers who were at the establishment as the virus spread say the outbreak could be a "wake-up call" for young people.

Harper's Restaurant and Brewpub in East Lansing, Michigan, has been linked to 114 primary COVID-19 cases and at least 19 secondary contact cases, Ingham County spokesperson Amanda Darche told Insider.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At least 152 coronavirus cases linked to Michigan bar

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/at-least-152-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-michigan-bar/ar-BB16gJIL

At least 152 cases of coronavirus are linked to a bar in East Lansing, Michigan, health officials said.

The current cases that were traced to Harper's Restaurant & Brew Pub "includes 128 primary cases and 24 secondary cases," Amanda Darche, a spokesperson for the Ingham Health Department, told CNN.


Secondary cases are people who were infected but did not visit Harper's.

The new estimated number of cases that stemmed from the bar is an almost 50% jump from the 107 cases health officials had reported on Tuesday. Initially, 14 positive cases were reported. That number quickly changed.
 
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Dr. Anthony Fauci says U.S. coronavirus outbreak is ‘going to be very disturbing,’ could top 100,000 new cases a day

Key Points:
  • The U.S. is “not in total control” of the coronavirus pandemic and daily new cases could surpass 100,000 new infections per day if the outbreak continues on its current trend, White House health adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.
  • “I can’t make an accurate prediction but it’s going to be very disturbing,” Fauci told senators in a hearing held by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
  • The number of new cases reported each day in the U.S. is now outpacing that of April, when the virus rocked Washington state and parts of the Northeast, especially the New York City area.

upload_2020-6-30_15-14-50.png

Fauci’s comments came in response to a question from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, who asked whether the U.S. is heading in the right direction in terms of controlling the outbreak.

“Well I think the numbers speak for themselves,” Fauci said. “I’m very concerned and I’m not satisfied with what’s going on because we’re going in the wrong direction if you look at the curves of the new cases, so we really have got to do something about that and we need to do it quickly.”

Outbreaks in states like Florida and Texas also threaten to disrupt the progress states like New York and New Jersey have so far made in driving down the outbreak in the Northeast, Fauci said. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut last week announced they would mandate 14-day quarantines for any travelers coming from a states with rapidly expanding outbreaks. Nonetheless, Fauci said increased infection anywhere in the country threatens to spread everywhere.

“I guarantee you that because when you have an outbreak in one part of the country, even though in other parts of the country they’re doing well, they are vulnerable,” Fauci said. “I made that point very clearly last week at a press conference. We can’t just focus on those areas that are having a surge, it puts the entire country at risk.”

The outbreaks might be partly driven by states that reopened too soon and might have disregarded some of the federal guidance meant to help states restart safely, Fauci said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fau...-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html
 
Fuuuuuuuuuck.
I called that for Florida alone in two weeks. I think a major issue people don't realise is social distancing, masks, and washing hands doesn't bring the R number down. You can keep it level when there's a small infection base. To get it down, you have to have lockdown until it's a manageable number that social distancing, masks, and washing hands can keep low. Spacious seating plans in restaurants will just keep R0 slightly above 1 instead of significantly above 1, but the disease will still grow.

I wonder if the advice being given is similar to nuclear "Duck and Cover" advice? Completely useless but it gives the public a slightly better sense of security?
 
To get it down, you have to have lockdown until it's a manageable number that social distancing, masks, and washing hands can keep low.

With standard assumptions none of those will affect R0 significantly differently at 0.001% infected or 10% infected, in fact at 10% affected there are less potential targets so R0 will be lower ... not higher. The difference is that at 0.001% infected contact tracing can realistically make a difference.

Lockdown is a gamble on contact tracing, better treatments or a prophylactic (the experimental prophylactic of choice currently being masks, mostly cloth masks).

With more optimistic assumptions R0 will be significantly lower at 10%.
 
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2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/press-releases/june/063020-PressRelease-DallasCountyReports601AdditionalPositiveCOVID-19Cases.pdf

June 30, 2020 - 21,338 confirmed cases - 373 deaths

21,338 confirmed cases up 601 and twenty new deaths
those 601 new cases represent a 2.9% increase over the last day

The 601 new cases are a new all time high. Not Good.
Also the twenty new deaths is also a record.


Increases (by percent) since March 27, 2020 :
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%,
2.1%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 2.9%, 2.8% and now 2.9%

Increases (by count) since March 27, 2020 :
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289, +263, +254, +298, +300, +312, +328, +345, +302, +305,
+306, +413, +392, +394, +395, +408, +454, +445, +391, +403, +496, +561, +570, +572 and now +601

DALLAS -- As of 11:00am June 30, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 601
additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas
County to 21,338, including 373 deaths.

The additional 20 deaths being reported today include:

A man in his 30’s who was a resident of the City of Richardson. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 30’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He was found deceased at home, and did not have underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 40’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 40’s who was a resident of the City of Irving. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 40’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He expired in an area hospital ED, and did not have underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 50’s who was a resident of the City of Balch Springs. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 50’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Seagoville. He had been hospitalized, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A woman in her 60’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A woman in her 60’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Garland. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been hospitalized, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 70’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He expired in an area hospital ED, and did not have underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 70’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He expired in an area hospital ED, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A woman in her 70’s who was a resident of the City of Garland. She was found deceased at home, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 70’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He expired in an area hospital ED, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A woman in her 70’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A woman in her 80’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions
A woman in her 80’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A man in his 80’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been hospitalized, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas. She had been hospitalized, and did not have underlying high risk health conditions.
A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.

An increasing proportion of COVID-19 cases in Dallas County are being diagnosed in young adults between 18 to 39 years of age, such that of all cases reported after June 1st, more than half have been in this age group. Increasing reports of cases are continuing to be associated with multiple large recreational and social gatherings since the beginning of June, including house parties. Of cases requiring hospitalization, more than two-thirds have been under 65 years of age, and about half do not have any high-risk chronic health conditions. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

The percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased to 26.9% of symptomatic patients presenting to area hospitals in week 25. The age-adjusted rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases in non-hospitalized patients have been highest among Hispanics (667.4 per 100,000), Asians (187.4 per 100,000) and Blacks (136.4 per 100,000). These rates have been higher than Whites (43.8 per 100,000).

Over 60% of overall COVID-19 cases to date have been Hispanic. Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, over 80% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions.

Of the 373 total deaths reported to date, over a third have been associated with long-term care facilities.

Local health experts use hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and ER visits as three of the key indicators in determining the COVID-19 Risk Level (color-coded risk) and corresponding guidelines for activities during our COVID-19 response. We continue to see record high numbers of COVID-19 inpatients in Dallas County hospitals with 619 COVID-19 patients in acute care for the period ending Monday, June 29. Additionally, the number of emergency room visits for COVID-19 like symptoms in Dallas County continues to be high with 634 emergency room visits in the 24 hour period ending Monday, June 29, which represents 32 percent of all emergency department visits in Dallas County according to information reported to the North Central Texas Trauma Regional Advisory Council. These numbers not only reflect the impact on our health care facilities, but the danger this virus poses to individuals as increasing numbers of people are ending up in the hospital in need of care. You can find additional information on risk-level monitoring data here.

“Today we’ve surpassed 600 new cases of COVID-19 for the first time, having surpassed 300 cases only 20 days ago. Additionally, this is our deadliest day thus far in the outbreak. Twenty residents are being reported as COVID-19 casualties today, exceeding our previous high of 16 deaths. Finally, our hospitalization numbers continue to increase. Local COVID-19 hospitalizations yesterday were at an all-time high of 619 compared to 296 30 days ago. And regionally, yesterday was an all-time high of 1340 compared to 615 30 days ago.
 
State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

75af1a2d-68d9-450a-9ce9-ccd60b8fbfe3.png


https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

Data as of 6/30/2020 @4:00 PM:

Total Tests: 2,119,036 (Up +57,097)

Total Viral Tests: 1,869,282 (Up +50,093)

Only 88.2% of Total Tests are Viral Tests the other 11.8% of tests are the useless
Antibody Tests

Cases Reported: 159,986 (Up +6,975)


Fatalities: 2,424 (Up +21)

Texas tests per 1M population are 73,081 (Up +1,970) which places Texas as the 10th worst State. No change from yesterday.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column twice to sort from worst to first

They are using roughly 28.996 million as the population of Texas.

Texas is mixing Viral and Antibody Tests in the total test numbers which is very bad as Antibody Tests are useless in determining if someone has the Coronavirus.

As of today the real number of Total Viral Tests for Texas is 1,869,282 which works out to be 64,467 per 1M population so Texas is really the 6th worst state in testing
 
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Cases in Texas are exploding

Today's 6,975 case increase is a new all time high and 979 higher than the previous high of 5,996 that was set just five days ago.

Last seven day's case increases are 6,975, 4,283, 5,357, 5,747, 5,707, 5,996, 5,551

First day that cases exceeded 2000 was June 10th.
First day that cases exceeded 3000 was June 17th.
First day that cases exceeded 4000 was June 20th.
First day that cases exceeded 5000 was June 23th.
First day that cases exceeded 6000 was June 30th.


The numbers of cases in Texas for each week since June 1, 2020 are :

June 1-7 : Total Cases 10,691 - Average of 1,527 per day
June 8-14 : Total Cases 12,876 - Average of 1,839 per day - 20% higher than the previous week
June 15-21 : Total Cases 22,271 - Average of 3,182 per day - 73% higher than the previous week
June 22-28 : Total Cases 37,127 - Average of 5,304 per day - 67% higher than the previous week
June 29-30 : Total Cases 11,258 - Average of 5,629 per day - 6% higher than the previous week - Only two days for the week so far
 
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With standard assumptions none of those will affect R0 significantly differently at 0.001% infected or 10% infected, in fact at 10% affected there are less potential targets so R0 will be lower ... not higher. The difference is that at 0.001% infected contact tracing can realistically make a difference.

Lockdown is a gamble on contact tracing, better treatments or a prophylactic (the experimental prophylactic of choice currently being masks, mostly cloth masks).

With more optimistic assumptions R0 will be significantly lower at 10%.
The Stockholm graph in that article has turned into this https://www.covid19insweden.com/en/region.html?regionId=15 which makes me wonder if the article should be amended.
 
US reports over 48,000 new single-day coronavirus cases, setting a new record for the fourth time in a week

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-reports-over-48-000-new-single-day-coronavirus-cases-setting-a-new-record-for-the-fourth-time-in-a-week/ar-BB16bE8J

Mean while in Florida:

"I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day," Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told a Senate committee. He warned that the "consequences could be really serious" if states rush ahead with plans to reopen their economies without first building the capacity to test and trace infected individuals' contact with others.

Several states have indeed halted such plans, with Texas and California alike hitting pause and seeking to once again limit the drinking of alcohol indoors.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, however, is bucking the trend. "We're not going back, closing things," he told reporters on Tuesday, as Axios noted, the same day the state's Department of Health reported 6,000 new coronavirus cases. "I don't think that that's really what's driving it, people going to a business is not what's driving it."

On Monday, however, Dr. Mark Supino, an emergency medicine physician at Jackson Health System in Miami, told Business Insider that the surge in cases clearly tracks with the state's early reopening.

"When everything started to open up and ease up, then our volume picked up," he said.

We're finally seeing the delayed impacts of reopenings

It took a few weeks for the impacts of reopenings to become evident. That's because several weeks can pass between when somebody comes into contact with the virus, and when they start to show symptoms or seek a test. From there, processing a test can take up to a week.
 
Something doesn't jive with today's numbers for Ohio, in particular number of tests performed. I don't see any disclaimers or explanations on their site.

Testing is down to 4,041 tests. It wasn't anywhere near that the previous days and they had at least 13K testing.
New cases is at 1076. Cuyahoga County has +182 new cases.

That's a positivity rate of 26.6% with only 4K tests and 1K new cases.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

upload_2020-7-1_14-51-57.png

Here is the raw data for the last few days:

upload_2020-7-1_14-50-58.png

Code:
Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-06-01;    398,066;    9,598;    34,055;    35,984;    4,508;    6,112;    2,206;    471;    63;    51
2020-06-02;    407,450;    9,384;    34,858;    36,350;    4,581;    6,176;    2,258;    366;    64;    52
2020-06-03;    423,521;    16,071;    36,232;    36,792;    4,669;    6,251;    2,299;    442;    75;    41
2020-06-04;    434,608;    11,087;    37,181;    37,282;    4,732;    6,312;    2,339;    490;    61;    40
2020-06-05;    443,533;    8,925;    37,944;    37,758;    4,789;    6,385;    2,355;    476;    73;    16
2020-06-06;    455,823;    12,290;    38,996;    38,111;    4,827;    6,460;    2,370;    353;    75;    15
2020-06-07;    466,279;    10,456;    39,890;    38,476;    4,858;    6,497;    2,377;    365;    37;    7
2020-06-08;    473,988;    7,709;    40,550;    38,837;    4,910;    6,550;    2,404;    361;    53;    27
2020-06-09;    487,583;    13,595;    41,713;    39,162;    4,939;    6,620;    2,421;    325;    70;    17
2020-06-10;    499,019;    11,436;    42,691;    39,575;    5,011;    6,693;    2,457;    413;    73;    36
2020-06-11;    509,699;    10,680;    43,605;    40,004;    5,057;    6,753;    2,490;    429;    60;    33
2020-06-12;    520,813;    11,114;    44,556;    40,424;    5,112;    6,814;    2,508;    420;    61;    18
2020-06-13;    535,943;    15,130;    45,850;    40,848;    5,144;    6,864;    2,554;    424;    50;    46
2020-06-14;    543,260;    7,317;    46,476;    41,148;    5,175;    6,895;    2,557;    300;    31;    3
2020-06-15;    554,128;    10,868;    47,406;    41,576;    5,220;    6,948;    2,573;    428;    53;    16
2020-06-16;    565,034;    10,906;    48,339;    42,010;    5,271;    7,007;    2,597;    434;    59;    24
2020-06-17;    581,444;    16,410;    49,743;    42,422;    5,336;    7,051;    2,611;    412;    44;    14
2020-06-18;    596,875;    15,431;    51,063;    43,122;    5,404;    7,104;    2,633;    700;    53;    22
2020-06-19;    612,854;    15,979;    52,430;    43,731;    5,481;    7,167;    2,667;    609;    63;    34
2020-06-20;    626,765;    13,911;    53,620;    44,262;    5,555;    7,201;    2,697;    531;    34;    30
2020-06-21;    639,991;    13,226;    54,752;    44,808;    5,633;    7,242;    2,700;    546;    41;    3
2020-06-22;    656,318;    16,327;    56,148;    45,537;    5,734;    7,292;    2,704;    729;    50;    4
2020-06-23;    667,077;    10,759;    57,069;    46,127;    5,820;    7,379;    2,735;    590;    87;    31
2020-06-24;    680,687;    13,610;    58,233;    46,759;    5,964;    7,447;    2,755;    632;    68;    20
2020-06-25;    696,200;    15,513;    59,560;    47,651;    6,111;    7,502;    2,772;    892;    55;    17
2020-06-26;    718,086;    21,886;    61,433;    48,638;    6,287;    7,570;    2,788;    987;    68;    16
2020-06-27;    741,353;    23,267;    63,423;    49,455;    6,429;    7,624;    2,804;    817;    54;    16
2020-06-28;    753,246;    11,893;    64,441;    50,309;    6,571;    7,681;    2,807;    854;    57;    3
2020-06-29;    770,860;    17,614;    65,947;    51,046;    6,694;    7,746;    2,818;    737;    65;    11
2020-06-30;    784,362;    13,502;    67,103;    51,789;    6,831;    7,839;    2,863;    743;    93;    45
2020-07-01;    788,403;    4,041;    67,448;    52,865;    7,013;    7,911;    2,876;    1,076;    72;    13
 
As of now, Florida is reporting +6,563 new cases since yesterday putting their 29 day surge streak at 101,550 total.

Arizona is at 84,092 with +4,877 new cases. Georgia is at 81,291 but have not reported today's numbers. So if Georgia reports under 2801 new cases, Arizona is now the 9th worst state for COVID19.
 
2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

July 1, 2020 - 21,882 confirmed cases - 380 deaths

21,882 confirmed cases up 544 and seven new deaths
those 544 new cases represent a 2.5% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) since March 27, 2020 :
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%,
2.1%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 2.9%, 2.8%, 2.9%
-- Month of July 2020 --
and now 2.5%

Increases (by count) since March 27, 2020 :
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289, +263, +254, +298, +300, +312, +328, +345, +302, +305,
+306, +413, +392, +394, +395, +408, +454, +445, +391, +403, +496, +561, +570, +572, +601
-- Month of July 2020 --
and now +544

As of 11:00 am July 1, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 544 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 21,882, including 380 deaths.

The additional 7 deaths being reported today include:

  • A woman in her 20’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and did not have underlying high risk health conditions. A woman in her 40’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 50’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. He had been hospitalized, and did not have underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A woman in her 60’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She was found deceased at home, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of DeSoto. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A man in his 70’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Seagoville. He had been critically ill in an area hospital, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A woman in her 80’s who was a resident of the City of Dallas. She had been hospitalized, and had underlying high risk health conditions.
An increasing proportion of COVID-19 cases in Dallas County are being diagnosed in young adults between 18 to 39 years of age, such that of all cases reported after June 1st, more than half have been in this age group. Over 54 confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and staff have been reported from 26 separate daycares in Dallas County since June 1st, including one staff member requiring ICU hospitalization. Increasing reports of cases are continuing to be associated with multiple large recreational and social gatherings since the beginning of June, including house parties.

Of cases requiring hospitalization, more than two-thirds have been under 65 years of age, and about half do not have any high-risk chronic health conditions. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased to 26.9% of symptomatic patients presenting to area hospitals in week 25. The age-adjusted rates of confirmed COVID19 cases in non-hospitalized patients have been highest among Hispanics (667.4 per 100,000), Asians (187.4 per 100,000) and Blacks (136.4 per 100,000). These rates have been higher than Whites (43.8 per 100,000). Over 60% of overall COVID-19 cases to date have been Hispanic.

Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, over 80% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions.

Of the 380 total deaths reported to date, over a third have been associated with long-term care facilities.
 
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