Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

So a doubling of cases is expected? So instead of saying spike, I should say what? Since I obviously don't mean it's temporary. It's the new trajectory. I can't think of any sufficient word or short phrases that isn't 'spike in cases' to convey "The US is Fucked. The cases are doubling and won't stop until prevention steps are followed again."
 
Increase in infections I guess. Increase in R0? Return to exponential growth? I don't know of any snappy term to sum that up. Disease-comeback? Round 2? Progress reversal?
 
Oh. I just thought of one...

"Game over, man. Game Over!"



Longer edition:

 
Shifty Geezer said:
The Oxford Vaccine test is open for volunteers. It doesn't target any particular demographic or occupational section; it's open to anyone in good health over 18

https://www.covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/

However, the testing strikes me as flawed. They'll be monitoring if their people get the disease. At the moment there are 500 new cases a day in England. That's about 1/10,000th of the population. With ten thousand people getting the vaccine, three months would be something like 90 people actually getting infected, and that's if the case rate doesn't drop.

Brazil has just been signed up for testing. That'll be the more realistic observation site.
Click to expand...


Yeah there was an article a couple of weeks ago with the Oxford scientists expressing concern that they will be unable to find enough spread in the UK to really test the vaccine.

The other thing being discussed generally is for human challenge trials, vaccinate and deliberately try to infect volunteers.
 
BRiT said:
crowds I see substantial Mask use.
Click to expand...

I don't see how it's relevant either way, I've seen estimates of outside infection being somewhere between almost impossible (China) and 18x times less likely (Japan). Either way, that means it matters so little to R0 to not be worth worrying about. Lets concentrate on low hanging fruit and ignore stuff which will never make up a significant part of R0.

Social distancing measures outside except for literal shoulder to shoulder events should be scrapped.
 
MfA said:
I don't see how it's relevant either way, I've seen estimates of outside infection being somewhere between almost impossible (China) and 18x times less likely (Japan). Either way, that means it matters so little to R0 to not be worth worrying about. Lets concentrate on low hanging fruit and ignore stuff which will never make up a significant part of R0.

Social distancing measures outside except for literal shoulder to shoulder events should be scrapped.
Click to expand...


Yeah I've seen that 19x less likely number too.

Doesn't mean large-scale events are safe though. One of the big spreading events is thought to be a futbol match between Atalanta of Milan and Valencia. It was a Champions League match so a lot of Spaniards traveled to Milan.

But did the infections occur in the stadium or at bars and restaurants before and after the match?

Another early spreading event was at a ski resort in Austria. In that case, unless people were skiing shoulder to shoulder, it seems more likely that the spreading occurred in the ski lodges and other shared interior spaces between or after the skiing.
 
Ohio's testing is 10.4K and the trends are perhaps the lowest on all three metrics in a while. I don't take this to mean what Ohio is doing as working, but just one of those lucky events that happen despite the conditions.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

upload_2020-6-7_14-16-55.png

Here is the raw data for the last few days:

upload_2020-6-7_14-16-15.png

Code: 
Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-05-19; 277,602; 7,561; 23,749; 28,952; 3,463; 5,117; 1,720; 498; 119; 63
2020-05-20; 287,609; 10,007; 24,605; 29,436; 3,512; 5,198; 1,781; 484; 81; 61
2020-05-21; 297,085; 9,476; 25,416; 30,167; 3,667; 5,295; 1,836; 731; 97; 55
2020-05-22; 305,764; 8,679; 26,158; 30,794; 3,762; 5,379; 1,872; 627; 84; 36
2020-05-23; 314,374; 8,610; 26,895; 31,408; 3,851; 5,437; 1,956; 614; 58; 84
2020-05-24; 322,419; 8,045; 27,583; 31,911; 3,927; 5,476; 1,969; 503; 39; 13
2020-05-25; 330,334; 7,915; 28,260; 32,477; 3,963; 5,511; 1,987; 566; 35; 18
2020-05-26; 337,221; 6,887; 28,849; 33,006; 4,060; 5,579; 2,002; 529; 68; 15
2020-05-27; 347,477;10,256; 29,727; 33,439; 4,137; 5,700; 2,044; 433; 121; 42
2020-05-28;    357,722;    10,245;    30,603;    33,915;    4,211;    5,811;    2,098;    476;    111;    54
2020-05-29;    367,526;    9,804;    31,442;    34,566;    4,318;    5,947;    2,131;    651;    136;    33
2020-05-30;    379,552;    12,026;    32,471;    35,034;    4,369;    6,011;    2,149;    468;    64;    18
2020-05-31;    388,468;    8,916;    33,234;    35,513;    4,444;    6,049;    2,155;    479;    38;    6
2020-06-01;    398,066;    9,598;    34,055;    35,984;    4,508;    6,112;    2,206;    471;    63;    51
2020-06-02;    407,450;    9,384;    34,858;    36,350;    4,581;    6,176;    2,258;    366;    64;    52
2020-06-03;    423,521;    16,071;    36,232;    36,792;    4,669;    6,251;    2,299;    442;    75;    41
2020-06-04;    434,608;    11,087;    37,181;    37,282;    4,732;    6,312;    2,339;    490;    61;    40
2020-06-05;    443,533;    8,925;    37,944;    37,758;    4,789;    6,385;    2,355;    476;    73;    16
2020-06-06;    455,823;    12,290;    38,996;    38,111;    4,827;    6,460;    2,370;    353;    75;    15
2020-06-07;    466,279;    10,456;    39,890;    38,476;    4,858;    6,497;    2,377;    365;    37;    7
 
wco81 said:
Yeah I've seen that 19x less likely number too.

Doesn't mean large-scale events are safe though. One of the big spreading events is thought to be a futbol match between Atalanta of Milan and Valencia. It was a Champions League match so a lot of Spaniards traveled to Milan.

But did the infections occur in the stadium or at bars and restaurants before and after the match?

Another early spreading event was at a ski resort in Austria. In that case, unless people were skiing shoulder to shoulder, it seems more likely that the spreading occurred in the ski lodges and other shared interior spaces between or after the skiing.
Click to expand...

Other mass spreading events were Cruise Ships. Naturally the ships are huge and people were not standing shoulder to shoulder the entire time.
 
wco81 said:
Doesn't mean large-scale events are safe though.
Click to expand...
Large scale events almost always are shoulder to shoulder, in the line to get in/out.

But getting anal about 6 feet distance and seating arrangements on terraces is not supported by current science (weak as it is) and beyond the limits of what I consider reasonable precaution.
 
MfA said:
Large scale events almost always are shoulder to shoulder, in the line to get in/out.

But getting anal about 6 feet distance and seating arrangements on terraces is not supported by current science (weak as it is) and beyond the limits of what I consider reasonable precaution.
Click to expand...

Other thing is, when you have an event where thousands gather, there are plenty of opportunities for people to gather close.

Let's say they cut capacity of a 20,000 seat stadium by half or even by 3/4. That will allow people to sit plenty of distance apart. But then there are choke points, like the entrances and exits, bathrooms, concession stands.

And then before and after the event, people may gather at pubs or many may take mass transit.
 
MfA said:
I don't see how it's relevant either way, I've seen estimates of outside infection being somewhere between almost impossible (China) and 18x times less likely (Japan).
Click to expand...
What constitutes 'outside' though? Is an open air football stadium outside? I think it important to consider the mechanics at play rather than rely on generalisations. If we assume the spread is virion inhalation, and outside with some amount of wind and currents causing a lot of air movement dissipating those virions, we can see how infection in such circumstances may be rare. Pack people close enough together and remove the airflow, and it surely can't be 'safe'.

Someone somewhere ought to be modelling contagion spread and coming up with ratings for different environmental situations. How does an air-conditioned supermarket compare to an open-air concert? All that advice at the moment is broad-spectrum and guesswork. Are hugs really out of the question? Or as long as you hug and then step back, ergo breathing the other side of the person, is there really much risk?
 
Probably difficult to model different stadiums. Don't a lot of the bigger stadiums, meaning the top level leagues like the EPL and Serie A, all have covered stands? A circular stadium would not have the same air circulation as a stadium with a rectangular stadium. In both cases there might be at least part of the stands covered.

Hard to determine the air flow and then you have to account for any wind.

Then you have people chanting, yelling and singing throughout the match and obviously sitting and standing much closer than 1 meter apart.
 
Thing about sporting events which the UK scientists obviously didn't consider (or perhaps understand) is that people get, well, excited during them. Lots of jumping around, shouting and, yes, hugging at times so lots of dispersion of aerosols even if you're outdoors. Not to mention the vast amounts of drinking and carousing in bars before and after games. The Cheltenham race festival is a notorious booze up (I have friends who go to the meeting for the social aspect more than the gambling/racing) so it was incredibly foolish for that to be allowed to go ahead.

Barring the unlikely arrival of a vaccine or successful treatment for the illness, I certainly don't expect to be able to watch any live football again during 2020. Lots of behind closed doors sport will be shown, of course.
 
2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

June 7, 2020 - 12,093 confirmed cases - 264 deaths

12,093 confirmed cases up 263 and two new deaths
those 263 new cases represent a 2.2% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) over the last 73 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5% and now 2.2%

Increases (by count) over the last 73 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289 and now +263

As of 11:00 am June 7, 2020, DCHHS is reporting 263 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 12,093, including 264 deaths.

The additional 2 deaths being reported today include:

  • A man in his 20’s who was a resident of the City of Irving, and had been critically ill in an area hospital. He did not have underlying high risk health conditions.
  • A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas, and expired in the facility.
Of cases requiring hospitalization who reported employment, over 80% have been critical infrastructure workers, with a broad range of affected occupational sectors, including: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, public works, finance, communications, clergy, first responders and other essential functions.

Of cases requiring hospitalization, more than two-thirds have been under 65 years of age, and about half do not have any high-risk chronic health conditions. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

Of the 264 total deaths reported to date, over a third have been associated with long-term care facilities.
Click to expand...
 
State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

75af1a2d-68d9-450a-9ce9-ccd60b8fbfe3.png


https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

Data as of 6/7/2020 @3:30 PM:

Total Tests: 1,255,899 (Up +36,944) : 6,944 above the 30,000 Daily Tests that the Governor of Texas Abbott promised.

Total Viral Tests: 1,100,446 is only 87.6% of Total Tests. The other 12.4% of tests are the useless Antibody Tests

Cases Reported: 74,978 (Up +1,425)

Fatalities: 1,830 (Up +11)

Texas tests per 1M population are 43,313 (Up +1,274) which places Texas as the 7th worst State. No change from yesterday.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

They are using roughly 28.996 million as the population of Texas.

Texas is mixing Viral and Antibody Tests in the total test numbers which is very bad as Antibody Tests are useless in determining if someone has the Coronavirus.

As of today June 7th the real number of Total Viral Tests for Texas is 1,100,446 which works out to be 37,952 per 1M population so Texas is really the 4th worst state in testing
 
Ohio's testing fell to 7.7K, but the trends continue to be on the lower side for all three metrics. Ohio continues to be lucky despite the conditions.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date. This graphic is resized by ~ 75% and taken from the State's Current Trends page: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends

upload_2020-6-8_18-44-56.png

Here is the raw data for the last few days:

upload_2020-6-8_18-45-48.png

Code: 
Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-05-19; 277,602; 7,561; 23,749; 28,952; 3,463; 5,117; 1,720; 498; 119; 63
2020-05-20; 287,609; 10,007; 24,605; 29,436; 3,512; 5,198; 1,781; 484; 81; 61
2020-05-21; 297,085; 9,476; 25,416; 30,167; 3,667; 5,295; 1,836; 731; 97; 55
2020-05-22; 305,764; 8,679; 26,158; 30,794; 3,762; 5,379; 1,872; 627; 84; 36
2020-05-23; 314,374; 8,610; 26,895; 31,408; 3,851; 5,437; 1,956; 614; 58; 84
2020-05-24; 322,419; 8,045; 27,583; 31,911; 3,927; 5,476; 1,969; 503; 39; 13
2020-05-25; 330,334; 7,915; 28,260; 32,477; 3,963; 5,511; 1,987; 566; 35; 18
2020-05-26; 337,221; 6,887; 28,849; 33,006; 4,060; 5,579; 2,002; 529; 68; 15
2020-05-27; 347,477;10,256; 29,727; 33,439; 4,137; 5,700; 2,044; 433; 121; 42
2020-05-28;    357,722;    10,245;    30,603;    33,915;    4,211;    5,811;    2,098;    476;    111;    54
2020-05-29;    367,526;    9,804;    31,442;    34,566;    4,318;    5,947;    2,131;    651;    136;    33
2020-05-30;    379,552;    12,026;    32,471;    35,034;    4,369;    6,011;    2,149;    468;    64;    18
2020-05-31;    388,468;    8,916;    33,234;    35,513;    4,444;    6,049;    2,155;    479;    38;    6
2020-06-01;    398,066;    9,598;    34,055;    35,984;    4,508;    6,112;    2,206;    471;    63;    51
2020-06-02;    407,450;    9,384;    34,858;    36,350;    4,581;    6,176;    2,258;    366;    64;    52
2020-06-03;    423,521;    16,071;    36,232;    36,792;    4,669;    6,251;    2,299;    442;    75;    41
2020-06-04;    434,608;    11,087;    37,181;    37,282;    4,732;    6,312;    2,339;    490;    61;    40
2020-06-05;    443,533;    8,925;    37,944;    37,758;    4,789;    6,385;    2,355;    476;    73;    16
2020-06-06;    455,823;    12,290;    38,996;    38,111;    4,827;    6,460;    2,370;    353;    75;    15
2020-06-07;    466,279;    10,456;    39,890;    38,476;    4,858;    6,497;    2,377;    365;    37;    7
2020-06-08;    473,988;    7,709;    40,550;    38,837;    4,910;    6,550;    2,404;    361;    53;    27
 
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