Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

[Nesh]

I have reports from my sister who works at Cleveland University Hospitals. It's the real deal. They even had to close down an entire floor of the University Hospital Seidman Cancer Center because of recent patient testing positive for COVID19. They have never done that for the flu. Not once in the past 30 years.

That doesn't say much by itself. The hospitals will proceed to the appropriate measures, and rightfully so, based on the expected size of the danger and the unknowns which depends on the information they are given. They have no choice as to respond on whats in hand.

But this is the peculiar thing. If there is such a noticeable difference and such and unquestionable danger, it is very peculiar that an "expert" physician or scientist or whatever will risk his credibility by showing the completely opposite picture that may put millions in danger.

No matter the case, no matter which side the the false or correct information comes from, it says a lot about either side

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Data as of 4/25/2020 @ 12:00 PM:

Total Tests: 262,816 (Up +20,269)
Cases Reported: 23,773 (Up +967)
In Hospitals: 1,597 (Down -77)
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 9,986 (Up +830)
Fatalities: 623 (Up +30)

Texas tests per 1M population are 9,425 (Up +727) which places Texas as the 5th worst State. Texas is up two places from yesterday. Ohio is one place better at 9,567 (Up +367) per 1M population.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

They're using roughly 27.885 million as the population of Texas.

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

April 25, 2020 - 2,909 confirmed cases - 81 deaths

2,909 confirmed cases up 75 over yesterday and four new deaths
those 75 new cases represent a 2.6% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) over the last 30 days:
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%, 15.8%, 13.7%,
10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%,
7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%, 4.0%,
6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%,
2.6% and now 2.6%

Increases (by count) over the last 30 days:
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82, +100, +100,
+90, +94, +97, +43, +106, +63, +108,
+105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109, +80,
+124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80,
+71 and now +75

As of 11:00am April 25, 2020, Dallas County Health and Human Services is reporting 75 additional positive cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), bringing the total case count in Dallas County to 2,909, including 81 deaths.

The 4 additional deaths being reported today include:

• A man in his 60’s who was a resident of the City of Garland and had been hospitalized.
• A man in his 70’s who was a resident of the City of Carrollton and had been hospitalized.
• A man in his 80’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and had been hospitalized..
• A woman in her 90’s who was a resident of a long-term care facility in the City of Dallas and had been hospitalized.

Of cases requiring hospitalization, most have been either over 60 years of age or have had at least one known high-risk chronic health condition. Diabetes has been an underlying high-risk health condition reported in about a third of all hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Of the 81 total deaths reported to date, about 40% have been associated with long-term care facilities.

 

[BRiT]

Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 15587 (up from 15169 ), Hospitalized: 3115 (up from 3053 ), and Deaths: 711 (up from 690 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 604 (up from 588 ), 40 (down from 41 )
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1867 (up from 1817).

Percentage increase: 2.76%, 2.03%, 3.04%
Raw increase: 418, 62, 21

Ohio has total tests of 111,379 (up from 107,109) and tests per 1M population of 9567 (up from 9200) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]

They're using roughly 11.641482 million as the population of Ohio.

 

[BRiT]

Ohio still has miserable testing measures being performed, so much so that they have now fallen behind Texas on tests per 1M population. Ohio had asked the FDA for changes in the reaction liquids or such a week ago, which was supposedly approved yet testing is still at abysmal levels. The only reason it's as high as it is now is because they were forced to test every prisoner in several of the prison systems.

 

[Davros]

Once again...Typical seasonal Flu worldwide death rate is: 280,000 - 650,000/year
Covid-19 is just now reaching 200,000.

And thats with a global lockdown imagine what it would be if no action was taken

None of us were at the morgue or at a hospital doing statistics.

And how about those coffins how do we know there are bodies in them and the mourners could be actors, just like sandy hook...

 

[AlphaWolf]

Once again...Typical seasonal Flu worldwide death rate is: 280,000 - 650,000/year
Covid-19 is just now reaching 200,000.
Current CDC estimates for 2019-2020 Flu season deaths in the US is 24,000 - 62,000.

The US will pass the high flu number shortly, and that's with severe mitigation efforts in place and many weeks to go.

I'd wait for a retrospective analysis of the worldwide data as there are some serious questions about the math in many nations.

 

[Nesh]

And how about those coffins how do we know there are bodies in them and the mourners could be actors, just like sandy hook...

I didnt say there are no casualties. The size of the casualties may be subject to statistical interpretation and data and any of the two sides may be wrong. Thats what I pointed. Now dont try and give it "a conspiracy theory" vibe to my posts because thast not where I pointed at and you know it.

(btw I hope you didnt use this as a reference because thats just as silly as the conspiracy theories:
https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/fact-check/256128-photo-coffins-people-died-coronavirus-italy )

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I didnt say there are no casualties. The size of the casualties is subject to statistical interpretation.

How so? What's the alternative stats argument? We have 200,000 deaths now after a few months with significant mitigation in effect, and serological tests suggest 5% of people have had the disease, and flu kills at most 650,000 a year. What's the other maths? Because I'm not seeing it.

 

[Nesh]

How so? What's the alternative stats argument? We have 200,000 deaths now after a few months with significant mitigation in effect, and serological tests suggest 5% of people have had the disease, and flu kills at most 650,000 a year. What's the other maths? Because I'm not seeing it.

One side states these numbers another side states these numbers are misreporting of deaths and are inflated. John Ioannides came with data (but you said he has an agenda and that is your personal opinion. I have no opinion), we ve got the epidiomiologist Johan Giesecke, we ve got various physicians like the ones I posted earlier, we ve got various other epidiomiologists from other countries that claim its serious other not us much, ve get revisions of numbers (some get higher some get lower) we ve got vastly different numbers between countries which is not always the result of "faster implementation of measures", but how they report them, how they classify what is what and how good they are at handling etc

Dont pretend like I support everything is a lie. My position is undecided and in neither side of the spectrum. I view all data and I have not settled.

 

[BRiT]

This must really irk FoxNews to have to report on this...

https://www.foxnews.com/us/states-spike-poison-control-calls

States see spike in poison control calls following Trump's comments on injecting disinfectant

Some poison control centers reported a spike in calls following President Trump’s suggestion that injecting disinfectant might help people infected with coronavirus.

At a news briefing Thursday, Trump speculated on the effectiveness of several possible treatments for the virus, most notably by injecting disinfectant into the body.

"And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute,” Trump said. “And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or ... or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets on the lungs and it does a tremendous number, so it will be interesting to check that. So that you're going to have to use medical doctors. But it sounds, it sounds interesting to me.”

The comment alarmed medical professionals around the world. The president subsequently claimed on Friday that he was being "sacrastic," although at the press conference he was soberly addressing health experts on the coronavirus task force, urging them to launch a study.

 

[AlphaWolf]

One side states these numbers another side states these numbers are misreporting of deaths and are inflated. John Ioannides came with data (but you said he has an agenda and that is your personal opinion. I have no opinion), we ve got the epidiomiologist Johan Giesecke, we ve got various physicians like the ones I posted earlier, we ve got various other epidiomiologists from other countries that claim its serious other not us much, ve get revisions of numbers (some get higher some get lower) we ve got vastly different numbers between countries which is not always the result of "faster implementation of measures", but how they report them, how they classify what is what and how good they are at handling etc

Dont pretend like I support everything is a lie. My position is undecided and in neither side of the spectrum. I view all data and I have not settled.

For an undecided, your posts (or should I say links) seem to always come from the same direction.

Kind of like the GRU wasn't decided on who they wanted to be president.

 

[Nesh]

For an undecided, your posts (or should I say links) seem to always come from the same direction.

Kind of like the GRU wasn't decided on who they wanted to be president.

Thats your opinion. The other direction is already fed in bigger quantities and almost exclusively. I bring the other to contrast and discuss. Now if you have a problem with the other direction and differing opinions that's not my concern.

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

Ohio still has miserable testing measures being performed, so much so that they have now fallen behind Texas on tests per 1M population. Ohio had asked the FDA for changes in the reaction liquids or such a week ago, which was supposedly approved yet testing is still at abysmal levels. The only reason it's as high as it is now is because they were forced to test every prisoner in several of the prison systems.

Ohio's numbers for today have finally been updated. I edited my earlier post with the new numbers.

Texas tests per 1M population are 9,425 (Up +727) which places Texas as the 5th worst State. Texas is up two places from yesterday. Ohio is one place better at 9,567 (Up +367) per 1M population.

That said you are right that Ohio is falling behind in testing as their daily testing increase from yesterday is +4,270 vs Texas's +20,269.

Over the last five days Texas has really stepped up testing. Five days ago (4/20) Texas has done only 190,394 tests as of today (4/25) they have done 262,816 tests or a gain of +72,422 tests which is an average of 14,484 tests per day for those five days. Today's +20,269 tests is a gain of 40% over that average.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

 

[AlphaWolf]

Thats your opinion. The other direction is already fed in bigger quantities and almost exclusively. I bring the other to contrast and discuss. Now if you have a problem with the other direction and differing opinions that's not my concern.

I'd call it an observation more than an opinion. And I have no problem with you linking stuff, I just wish you'd actually comment on the stuff you post so I have some idea why I'm supposed to click the link.

 

[Nesh]

I'd call it an observation more than an opinion. And I have no problem with you linking stuff, I just wish you'd actually comment on the stuff you post so I have some idea why I'm supposed to click the link.

Opinion, observation, same shit. Call it whatever you want. Your wishes are not my concern.If you didnt click but have an opinion....meh...so be it. Its your right.

 

[Entropy]

But this is the peculiar thing. If there is such a noticeable difference and such and unquestionable danger, it is very peculiar that an "expert" physician or scientist or whatever will risk his credibility by showing the completely opposite picture that may put millions in danger.

Having a title (or a profession, position, or being highly intelligent, or...) in no way implies that you aren’t an attention whore. On the contrary, that is one of the main human driving forces that push people to high positions, fame et cetera.
In a situation like this, statistics ensure that you will have a number of these vying for public attention. Not one. Thousands. The rest just failed to attract yours.

 

[Nesh]

Here is the full briefing from Dr Erickson
Shares his observations and what he sees in practice as a doctor, the new statistics and what other problens are expected to emerge in the health care system if the media and excessive fear continue. Maybe he has an agenda or he is an idiot. Maybe he is not.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

One side states these numbers another side states these numbers are misreporting of deaths and are inflated. John Ioannides came with data...

And his data fuels my numbers. He added to the existing data, that 50x or more people have had the disease than have so far tested positive. Then do the maths on that...

Dont pretend like I support everything is a lie.

I don't think that, but I don't how some arguments can be put in the 'possible/plausible' pile that when they don't fit the facts other than believing the facts are wrong. I'm interested in your position, how do you resolve 'it might not be as bad as the flu' with the information we have? I mentioned earlier to Zed there's only way that can happen and that's if the disease has spread incredibly rapidly and infected everyone. None of the data points to that.

(NOTE: For some reason I started channelling a console spokesperson when writing the below and styled these comments like a console interview. Go figure.)

From my POV, you present "here's a clever person presenting a POV", so I'm like, "okay, let's follow through with that. Let's see where the numbers take us." And I do the math. We can all do the math. And we see where that leads, and we find it's some place that doesn't fit with that expert. So then we're like, I mean, what else is there, we've got to go back to that expert and consider what went wrong on their end. I think it's pretty easy to mix up these numbers. Most are guesses because we don't do things like measuring everyone for flu. That just doesn't happen. So when we have case mortality with flu, we don't know if that's from 1 million people or 10 million people, we can only guess. With this new disease this, what are they calling it now? Covid19. With this Covid19, you can point to 5% of people dying in hospital, and then 50x as many people actually being positive as have tested positive, and divide that 5% down to 0.1%. That looks good. We can be happy with that, 0.1% looks like flu, sure. But that's only because we think flu kills 0.1%. What if it's 0.01% and we totally underestimate its spread? Because then we have the other numbers that point to millions dying in a year versus hundreds of thousands dying from flu, and I'm like, hang on, this can't be just flu. This isn't tracking like flu. Our data may not be great, but we can see where its heading. That's a head scratcher! I think we're all doing it, scratching our heads over what's happening, but I don't see, I'm like, this can't be flu, no way.

The thing with the numbers is when it works, it all works. It all comes together. You can look at it from both sides and they meet in the middle. What this Ioannidis fella has done, and don't get me wrong, he's definitely very smart, is only look at it from one way. And it's a good argument for sure. It's one I can believe in. It's one lots of people can probably get behind because I think we all really want it to be true, so we can get on with with our lives. But it assumes all the info is on the nail, and lots of it might not be. We might be good with the Covid19 testing, but how good are we really with the flu estimates? If this Covid19 testing shows we can be out by a factor of 50 with our testing, could that not be the same with the Flu numbers? I don't know. That's the problem, there's more 'I don't knows' then 'I do knows' going on. I think what people like John end up doing is looking at things to make an argument to support the actions they believe in. You can hear the guy, he's really quite invested about the social impacts, he really wants to move on from lockdown as quickly as possible. We all get that. But I think when you get passionate like that, when you're trying to talk people around to your way of thinking, I think it gets easy to miss something. We start to fill in those unknowns with little bits of faith. It's normal. It's natural. We all do it. That's where we need lots of people looking at this problem, and hearing lots of ideas, and then between them all we'll find an answer where the maths fits.

The only thing I think we can be sure of, certainly the only thing I can be sure of, is that if the math isn't meeting in the middle it can't be relied upon. If smart people are starting at different places and not finding their way to the same place, then we don't have an answer, and we can't know which of them has found the centre of the map. But if what they say doesn't scan right, I think we should definitely hold off and stick with what we know, and just get more data. Keep getting more data and crunching the numbers until it all fits.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The comment alarmed medical professionals around the world. The president subsequently claimed on Friday that he was being "sarcastic," although at the press conference he was soberly addressing health experts on the coronavirus task force, urging them to launch a study.

Sarcastic? Okay.

What he said was true; injecting yourself with disinfectant can kill the virus. The problem isn't killing the virus but killing the virus without killing/damaging the host.