Current Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[anexanhume]

Modern 6.5 digit models from reputable brands are all in that price range. My scope is a old crap that's a LOT less expensive. EE students think the scope is where you have to put all your money, that's no longer the case with cheap chinese brands, there are really great (hackable) scopes for $400.

Yet my phone is always the "free" model with the cheapest contract.

I mean to say the important launch price target is how much the majority of people are willing to pay for a gaming console, not the forum posters who obviously are much more passionate than average. There might be 10 million of gamers willing to pay $600 USD, but not 100M+. We have data with mid-gen refresh: the vast majority didn't think 2.3x or 4.5x more power was worth $100 more, and that was 2 and 3 years ago. Inflation didn't make it a more acceptable expense, neither did the teraflops. Launch year might get away with 499 for early adopters, but it will need a price drop the next year or two, and another one with a slim. Engineering for cost is about the entire generation, and predicting the memory market, and 5/3/2nm is going to be difficult and risky.

Yes, I would argue the half-step buying trends are all the data you need to support the viability of a Lockhart design. The high-end console then helps you catch the whales and the platform evangelists who amplify your halo effect.

And psh to your DMMs and scopes. I live in the frequency realm

 

[zupallinere]

Which console are you referring to? I see one $499 and one $399 console based on the reveals so far.

Well we can generalize it maybe to a $100 difference which would be quite a coup for Sony if so.
If Sony makes it to $400 that pretty well nails it barring the things bursting into flame.

 

[chris1515]

Not at the same resolution I suppose but very interesting point of view:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1246505265412730880

 

[PSman1700]

It depends on what one defines as 'close'. Some of last years (or was it two years ago) UE tech demos cant be considered anywhere close to death stranding.

 

[chris1515]

It depends on what one defines as 'close'. Some of last years (or was it two years ago) UE tech demos cant be considered anywhere close to death stranding.

Death Stranding is behind but mostly in Rebirth the quality of assets is better maybe a bit better shading and this is what he said since the beginning and it is valid for XSX and the PS5 SSD will help a lot improve quality of graphics and the two consoles are more powerful than PS4/PS4 Pro. This is very good and I want to see the game now.

 

[MrFox]

And psh to your DMMs and scopes. I live in the frequency realm

Lol, I'm honestly scared of anything RF! But I wish I had enough money for a good ghz spectrum analyser. These things cost a fortune even used.

 

[chris1515]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1246517384598278144

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1246517760881864704

Now this a tool and production problem to solve

 

[borntosoul]

Modern 6.5 digit models from reputable brands are all in that price range. My scope is a old crap that's a LOT less expensive. EE students think the scope is where you have to put all your money, that's no longer the case with cheap chinese brands, there are really great (hackable) scopes for $400.

Yet my phone is always the "free" model with the cheapest contract.

I mean to say the important launch price target is how much the majority of people are willing to pay for a gaming console, not the forum posters who obviously are much more passionate than average. There might be 10 million of gamers willing to pay $600 USD, but not 100M+. We have data with mid-gen refresh: the vast majority didn't think 2.3x or 4.5x more power was worth $100 more, and that was 2 and 3 years ago. Inflation didn't make it a more acceptable expense, neither did the teraflops. Launch year might get away with 499 for early adopters, but it will need a price drop the next year or two, and another one with a slim. Engineering for cost is about the entire generation, and predicting the memory market, and 5/3/2nm is going to be difficult and risky.

$100 more for 2 - 3 times more power is always worth it in pure terms, but if the software is not designed from the ground up to take advantage of it then it’s not worth it. Why would l go to the trouble sell my ps4 to upgrade to the pro? I didn’t think it was worth the trouble. But if the games were vastly different in quality then l would’ve.

Everyone would pay $100 more for a 2x - 3x improvement.
It’s the easiest equation ever...
30% more cost for 200% - 300% more performance.
As a company if you can’t sell that then..........

 

[PSman1700]

Now this a tool and production problem to solve

Rockstar says hi

 

[MrFox]

$100 more for 2 - 3 times more power is always worth it in pure terms, but if the software is not designed from the ground up to take advantage of it then it’s not worth it. Why would l go to the trouble sell my ps4 to upgrade to the pro? I didn’t think it was worth the trouble. But if the games were vastly different in quality then l would’ve.

Everyone would pay $100 more for a 2x - 3x improvement.
It’s the easiest equation ever...
30% more cost for 200% - 300% more performance.
As a company if you can’t sell that then..........

Gamers didn't calculate how the games look or look at FFT analysis in freeze frame. The vast majority chose to save $100 because they just want to play the games. This is unrelated to upgraders.

Explain the switch with 10 times less power than midgen refreshes. 10 times.

 

[Picao84]

Gamers didn't calculate how the games look or look at FFT analysis in freeze frame. The vast majority chose to save $100 because they just want to play the games. This is unrelated to upgraders.

Explain the switch with 10 times less power than midgen refreshes. 10 times.

The Switch has a widely different value proposition because it is mobile. It was the only reason I got one.

 

[PSman1700]

The Switch has a widely different value proposition because it is mobile. It was the only reason I got one.

It's not that simple, the Wii did very well too.

 

[MrFox]

The Switch has a widely different value proposition because it is mobile. It was the only reason I got one.

If it was the reason you got one, do you think it's everyone's reason?
There are polls about it. It doesn't add up to any reasonable metric corellating against gpu power.

 

[3dilettante]

Out of curiosity. These trace conversions to other forms of energy are what kinds of energy?

Some electromagnetic radiation, though much of it isn't going to get past the metal the chip is under or the shielding all around the active components of the console.
There could be some mechanical energy related to how the components may shift or change size as a result of thermal cycling, with potentially permanent changes due to deformation or cracking indicating a permanent change in the energy in those layers.

At the silicon level, tiny amounts of work are done when electrons can tunnel across barriers and become stuck, altering the charge for a time. Metal atoms in the interconnect and dopant atoms in the silicon will travel short distances under the influence of voltage potentials. These are part of the eventual degradation and failure of the silicon, assuming nothing else fails before they do. The amount of energy it would take to permanently shift the threshold of a transistor or cause 40nm wires to form gaps or a short would be a tiny amount spread out over a decade or more, but non-zero.

 

[anexanhume]

Some electromagnetic radiation, though much of it isn't going to get past the metal the chip is under or the shielding all around the active components of the console.
There could be some mechanical energy related to how the components may shift or change size as a result of thermal cycling, with potentially permanent changes due to deformation or cracking indicating a permanent change in the energy in those layers.

At the silicon level, tiny amounts of work are done when electrons can tunnel across barriers and become stuck, altering the charge for a time. Metal atoms in the interconnect and dopant atoms in the silicon will travel short distances under the influence of voltage potentials. These are part of the eventual degradation and failure of the silicon, assuming nothing else fails before they do. The amount of energy it would take to permanently shift the threshold of a transistor or cause 40nm wires to form gaps or a short would be a tiny amount spread out over a decade or more, but non-zero.

Sometimes you even get acoustics (coil whine) or visible spectrum. Though the latter is either indication of intention (LED) or imminent failure condition usually

 

[3dilettante]

Sometimes you even get acoustics (coil whine) or visible spectrum. Though the latter is either indication of intention (LED) or imminent failure condition usually

The structures on-chip are so fine that the behavior of the devices or their leakage can be affected by phonons, since those are atomic or lattice-scale vibrations. I'm not verse enough to know if that can be counted as heat, although any type of sound's eventual fate is to become random molecular motion, or heat.

 

[chris1515]

Heret this is what he think possible next gen

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1246523126445301762

 

[pjbliverpool]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1246505265412730880

Also Death Stranding did look pretty close to this.

I can't agree with Andrew on that one. Death Stranding is a pretty nice looking game but I've always thought it was over rated graphically. It certainly looks nothing like that video.

 

[chris1515]

I can't agree with Andrew on that one. Death Stranding is a pretty nice looking game but I've always thought it was over rated graphically. It certainly looks nothing like that video.

Like he said when I see rebirth I see something better than Death Stranding but not miles away. He seems to think if the PS4 would have a SSD it could do this at 1080p and a PS4 Pro at 1440p.

After there is other video he showed better than rebirth.

 

[blakjedi]

4SAs nothing changed since 5700XT it seems.

I.e. 64 ROPS, 4 rasterizers, 4 primitive units, 4 L1 pieces (probably the same size), 1 Geometry unit.
For both PS5 and XBSX.

XSX
3328 shaders
204 TMUS
80 ROPS

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/xbox-series-x-gpu.c3482

PS5 <-Basically a cut down overclocked 5700XT
2304 shaders
144 TMUs
64 ROPS