Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Let's not forget that we'll still have the flu deaths this year (will have had many of them already, of course), in addition to the Covid-19 ones.

The chap in the North London hospital I mentioned inferred in his message that the number of people in critical respiratory distress was not usual. He suffers from asthma, apparently, so is being kept away from the 'red zones' for his own safety. Whether or not asthmatics of his age are at greatly increased risk, I'm not sure (he's in his 30s), but I'm guessing they are trying to avoid too much risk.
 
digitalwanderer said:
Well if this is true it's pretty much game over, aerolization:

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/coronavirus-may-spread-through-normal-breathing-us-scientists/
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Not necessarily. It may be very difficult to catch from the amount of virus in a normal breath. If such aerosolisation occurred and everyone nearby could catch the illness, you'd expect the r number to be sky high, especially as people are infectious before symptoms appear or if they are asymptomatic.
 
manux said:
As I understand it the death rate of covid19 is estimated at the moment to be 0.6%. That tries to take undiagnosed cases into account. R value when nothing is done is about 2.2. This means one sick person gives the virus to 2 other people that get sick. This means exponential spread. If we assume that sweden really does nothing and roughly half the population gets infected this year that would be roughly 5 million sick people. Due to the exponential nature of virus spreading a lot of the people would be sick at same time. At best we would get 5000000*0.006 dead = 30000 deaths. Likely this would be way too little as sweden would not have ventilators/nurses/doctors to take care of huge mass of sick people at the same time.

Well, it's anybodys guess what will happen. But 0.006% and r=2.2, half of the population get's sick if nothing is done is good assumptions based on what we know today. Might be the values are lower in the end but it's a huge gamble to bet on that. It would make a lot of sense to take the cautious path and try to slow down the spread.
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But you don’t need to reduce R to 0.0-0.1
It is enough to reduce it below 1.
Problem is that the societal consequences of pushing R down hard gets progressively steeper for ever smaller gains. And unless you manage to quench it utterly, which would seem impossible in practise, the moment you release your restrictions the spread takes off again. (There was a neat simulation from folks at Harvard showing the resulting see-saw pattern resulting from turning restrictions on and off to keep ICUs from being overwhelmed.) You can do that, but if you could maintain the need for intensive care just below the maximum available (while working furiously to extend capacity, obviously) you could avoid having to shut down productivity periodically and for long periods, until an effective vaccine is developed. Initially, these clamp-down periods were optimistically assumed to be time-limited to two or three weeks. In reality, we have at best seen a levelling off after a month or so, and nowhere are we approaching moving back down to the base line.

Finding a sustainable steady state is probably what all nations need to attempt to do anyway. If Sweden is lucky, their current line is enough to achieve a levelling off of the rate of spread. No politician in their right mind would talk openly about an acceptable rate of death, but that’s something we’ve always needed to deal with even if out of the public eye. Roughly 1% of a nations population dies yearly. Is it acceptable if, for a year, it rises to 1.1%? 1.2%? Somebody needs to take a long hard look at the total picture and make that call.
I’m just glad it’s not me.
 
digitalwanderer said:
Well if this is true it's pretty much game over, aerolization:
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The 3 hours in the air thing is old news.

Also :
The new coronavirus can likely remain airborne for some time. That doesn’t mean we’re doomed

Really contagious aerosolised diseases have far faster spread than SARS-Cov2. The current numbers for SARS-Cov2 give it an Ro of 2-3 and around SARS on this chart. (https://www.theguardian.com/news/da...w-ebola-compares-to-other-infectious-diseases)

upload_2020-4-3_22-34-53.png

And (https://www.rferl.org/a/how-contagious-is-covid-19-compared-to-other-diseases/30492988.html)
2C02C65F-026C-461F-86DF-04AAEF8ED820_w1300_r0.jpg


So whatever SARS-Cov2 contagion routes, it's not massively contagious and it's far from 'game over' even if it's found to hang in the air longer than 3 hours.
 
You will always get extreme cases where a "super spreader" infects many more people than imaginable.
The chart above doesn't do justice to one off-cases regarding the speed with which covid-19 seems to spread.

Indian authorities in the northern state of Punjab have quarantined around 40,000 residents from 20 villages following a Covid-19 outbreak linked to just one man.
The man, a preacher, had ignored advice to self quarantine after returning from a trip to Italy and Germany, officials told BBC Punjabi's Arvind Chhabra.

The man, identified as Baldev Singh, had visited a large gathering to celebrate the Sikh festival of Hola Mohalla shortly before he died. A week after his death, 19 of his relatives have tested positive.

"So far, we have been able to trace 550 people who came into direct contact with him and the number is growing. We have sealed 15 villages around the area he stayed," a senior official told the BBC.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52061915
 
Shifty Geezer said:
What measures are in place in Dallas?
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AMENDED ORDER OF COUNTY JUDGE CLAY JENKINS
Safer At Home Order
DATE AMENDED ORDER ISSUED: April 2, 2020

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/orders-media/040220-AmendedOrder.pdf

DALLAS COUNTY takes effect at 11:59 p.m. on April 2, 2020 and will continue through 11:59 p.m. on April 30, 2020, subject to the limited exceptions and under the terms and conditions more particularly set forth below.

UNDER THE AUTHORITY OF TEXAS GOVERNMENT CODE
SECTION 418.108, DALLAS COUNTY JUDGE CLAY JENKINS ORDERS:

1. Effective as of 11:59 p.m. on April 2, 2020, and continuing until 11:59 p.m. on April 30, 2020:

(a) All individuals currently living within Dallas County are ordered to shelter at their place of residence. For the purposes of this Order, residences include hotels, motels, shared rentals, and similar facilities. To the extent individuals are using shared or outdoor spaces, they must at all times as reasonably as possible maintain social distancing of at least six feet from any other person when they are outside their residence. All persons may leave their residences only for Essential Activities, or to provide or perform Essential Governmental Functions, or to operate Essential Businesses, all as defined in Section 2.

(b) All businesses operating within Dallas County, except Essential Businesses as defined in below in Section 2, are required to cease all activities at facilities located within the County except Minimum Basic Operations as defined in Section 2. For clarity, businesses may continue operations consisting exclusively of employees or contractors performing activities at their own residences (i.e. working from home). To the greatest extent possible, all Essential Businesses shall comply with the Social Distancing Rules attached, including maintaining six feet social distancing for both employees and the general public.

(c) Employees of Essential Businesses, whose physical presence at the workplace is not essential to operations, are directed to use telecommuting to the fullest extent possible.

(d) All public or private gatherings of any number of people occurring outside a single household or living unit are prohibited, except as otherwise provided herein. Nothing in this Order prohibits the gathering of members of a household or living unit.

(e) All elective medical, surgical, and dental procedures are prohibited anywhere in Dallas County. Hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, dental offices, and other medical facilities are directed to identify procedures that are deemed "elective" by assessing which procedures can be postponed or cancelled based on patient risk considering the emergency need for redirection of resources to COVID-19 response.
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EDIT: 04/03/2020 @ 8:20 PM

Dallas County official: Stay-at-home order will remain in place until April 30 (not May 20)

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/04/03/dallas-county-official-stay-at-home-order-will-remain-in-place-until-april-30/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Dallas+county+s+top+elected+official+announces+"safer-at-home"+orders+will+continue+until+April+30&utm_campaign=CoronavirusUpdate_04032020

Updated at 7:30 p.m.: This has been updated to reflect the latest date for shelter-at-home orders in Dallas County. Officials this morning had extended a disaster declaration, including stay-at-home orders, until May 20. County Judge Clay Jenkins now says shelter-in-place will remain until April 30.

Hours after Dallas County Commissioners extended a disaster declaration until May 20, the county’s top elected official announced on Twitter that the so-called “safer-at-home” orders would continue until April 30.

The late-afternoon tweet was a shift after County Judge Clay Jenkins and other health officials stressed Friday that the strict restrictions Dallas County first established last month, and were adopted by other large counties, would be needed for at least 60 days to stop the spread of the coronavirus and the disease it causes, COVID-19.

Jenkins did not immediately return a request for comment on Friday evening.

A spokeswoman said Jenkins wanted Dallas County’s restrictions on movement to align with Gov. Greg Abbott’s order, which currently ends April 30. Since the state has largely adopted the rules first put in place by Dallas, the 4-1 commissioners vote changes little for the public. Dallasites who don’t work an “essential” job must continue to stay home except to shop for groceries, visit the doctor or pick up medicine.
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@rcf - You presented some numbers supporting your theory of 100,000 deaths in the UK from flu in two months 2018/2019. I presented hard evidence showing those deaths never happened. How can you ignore that real data and once again link to a story with an agenda instead of deal with the real facts??

It's not about conspiracy, but logic. You believe 100,000 died of flu and these sorts of death rates are normal. I show that's not true. How can you look at the real data and still stick with the idea that flu's just as bad, Covid19 is nothing more serious? Do you just ignore numbers that contradict your preferred beliefs? Or do you refuse to listen to arguments against your viewpoint and haven't even looked at the real death-rate from Flu so as not to challenge your beliefs? :???:

edit: If you'd actually looked at my data, you'd have seen I posted the wrong info and could have argued. Here's a better table:

There were an estimated 23,200 excess winter deaths which occurred in England and Wales in the 2018 to 2019 winter, the lowest since the winter of 2013 to 2014.​

upload_2020-4-4_10-28-14.png

So how do you process this information in relation to your 100,000 deaths figure? Do you ignore it, or deny it, or aren't you even listening because you already think you know the truth? Honest question so I can understand the thought process. From where I'm sitting, it looks someone pointed you to an animal and told you it's a sheep, and now you're going to accept it's a sheep even when it's a lama regardless how many people explain to you the differences between sheep and lamas.
 
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Yep this was predicted in our newspapers - back then they were concerned that the US would confiscate all respirators made by Philips, which they can do using an old law from the 1950.. That fortunately hasn’t happened ... yet.
 
Nesh said:
I ve heard that Germany did the same for masks bound for other EU countries. I guess its Karma :p
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Looking this up, there was a customs block of 240,000 masks for Switzerland. but this wasn't Germany holding them back selfishly.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany’s health minister signaled that Berlin could ease restrictions going forward, particularly to its European partners.

“I take this issue of European solidarity very seriously and am therefore certain there will be authorizations soon to export masks to certain countries,” Health Minister Jens Spahn said at a news conference in Berlin on Monday. “We’re not categorically against exports but want to understand what happens, because previously it was so that masks went not where they were most needed but where most was paid.”​

We had the same with Czechia blocking a shipment of mask destined for Italy and was accused of stealing them, but that was a law-enforcement issue as the country tackles a growing black-market in health gear.

Stolen shipments are being sold to the public.
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/11977-czech-seizes-chinese-masks-some-diverted-from-italy

https://www.europol.europa.eu/sites...how_criminals_exploit_the_covid-19_crisis.pdf
Europol supported a global operation to target trafficking counterfeit medicines. Operation Pangea, coordinated by INTERPOL and involved 90 countries worldwide, took place between 3 and 10 March 2020.
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https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-g...et-prices-on-masks-protective-gear/a-52952314
Europol, the EU's law enforcement agency, reported that one European firm ordered some €6.6 million ($7.3 million) worth of protective masks and disinfection gel from a company in Singapore — which never arrived. Likewise, a German government shipment of millions of masks from Kenya never turned up.
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Customs operations and law enforcement need to work to ensure products get to where they are supposed to.

France and Germany are continuing to support sharing their products with other countries.
 
So, thankfully I live in the state that was the earliest hit and had the highest infection and death rate up until NY passed us. Washington State.

I'm not sure NY should be used as an example of how the US will fare. WA and CA are both doing significantly better. We've likely plateaued in WA and I think it's plateauing or close to plateauing in CA. Likewise it doesn't appear that Texas is running out of control. That's almost 1/4 of the population of the US.

It helps that in our states the Mayor of our largest city didn't go out and basically tell people to ignore social distancing and keep going to bars and such as the NY Mayor did.

So, in WA, despite being the epicenter of Covid-19 in the US until NY passed us, it never got out of control. Our hospitals were never overwhelmed. We implemented social distancing before the rest of the country and before much of the rest of the world with people urged to stay at home and work from home. Likewise with closing of bars and restaurants and any other non-essential business to the general public, although restaurants are allowed to serve take out food.

I'd imagine that the other states in the US that have followed WA's example will fare similarly in controlling the spread and mitigating deaths due to insufficient medical care.

People pointing to NY and saying that's indicative of how the US will handle Covid-19 are basically saying...Look at Italy as an example of how the EU will handle Covid-19. Which is nonsensical. The EU is made up of various member states. And while each US state is more closely tied to the Federal government, each of the 50 states can and will set their own policies on how they handle the virus.

It might go like how it has in WA and CA. Or it may end up going like it is in NY. It all depends on what each individual state does.

Regards,
SB
 
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Shifty Geezer said:
Looking this up, there was a customs block of 240,000 masks for Switzerland. but this wasn't Germany holding them back selfishly.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-backlash-from-neighbors-over-mask-export-ban

Germany’s health minister signaled that Berlin could ease restrictions going forward, particularly to its European partners.

“I take this issue of European solidarity very seriously and am therefore certain there will be authorizations soon to export masks to certain countries,” Health Minister Jens Spahn said at a news conference in Berlin on Monday. “We’re not categorically against exports but want to understand what happens, because previously it was so that masks went not where they were most needed but where most was paid.”​

We had the same with Czechia blocking a shipment of mask destined for Italy and was accused of stealing them, but that was a law-enforcement issue as the country tackles a growing black-market in health gear.

Stolen shipments are being sold to the public.
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/11977-czech-seizes-chinese-masks-some-diverted-from-italy

https://www.europol.europa.eu/sites...how_criminals_exploit_the_covid-19_crisis.pdf


https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-g...et-prices-on-masks-protective-gear/a-52952314
Customs operations and law enforcement need to work to ensure products get to where they are supposed to.

France and Germany are continuing to support sharing their products with other countries.
Click to expand...
https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...-france-germany-italy-coronavirus-outbreak-uk

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-h...tection-gear-due-to-coronavirus-idUKKBN20R1TG
 
A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y said:
I am getting this error on clicking the link:

Beyond3D Forum - Error
You do not have permission to view this page or perform this action.
Click to expand...

That is in the RPSC forum, so you have to willingly join a user group. In the top right is your username, click that, then nearly all the way down on the menu is "Join User Groups".

Direct Link to join user group: https://forum.beyond3d.com/account/join-user-groups

Rts message abou RPSC: https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/joining-rpsc.60144/
 
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