Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

For those who haven't enough time to watch the full one minute video ;)
Thanks thats an honest image, I fell for their intentionally deceptive image that they used no doubt for impact.
Here's some talk on how the real death-rate may be far lower (given a number of these people would die this year anyway even without Covid19), and acknowledges the potential collateral damage.
theres prolly some effects the opposite way eg due to the drop of pollution, of course this would be very hard to measure though, also perhaps this would wake some ppl up to climate change etc (perhaps its better to act now spend billions than be forced to spend magnitudes more than that later on)
 
Thanks thats an honest image, I fell for their intentionally deceptive image that they used no doubt for impact.
It wasn't deceptive at all. The video starts with them showing data on phones, and then looked at one example of Spring Break on one beach.

theres prolly some effects the opposite way eg due to the drop of pollution, of course this would be very hard to measure though, also perhaps this would wake some ppl up to climate change etc (perhaps its better to act now spend billions than be forced to spend magnitudes more than that later on)
Like the old counting 'carbon footprint', it can get impossibly complicated. eg. Does it take more or less CO2 to cycle in the rain and then turn the heating on to dry out your clothes than to drive? What's the CO2 footprint of cycling if you eat bananas to cover the energy used versus bread? There'll be all sorts of gains and losses from Covid19 lockdowns.

People being stupid buying food doesn't help. Food production hasn't changed (in the UK at least) but the shelves are constantly getting emptied. How much (perishable!) food are people wanting to stock up on, and why??
 
People being stupid buying food doesn't help. Food production hasn't changed (in the UK at least) but the shelves are constantly getting emptied. How much (perishable!) food are people wanting to stock up on, and why??
I think it's one part hysteria, one part people being home 24/7 while food businesses are closed (you don't eat outside, you're bored and eat more, etc., not just stocking up food).
 
(you're bored and eat more).
If obesity goes up as a result of lockdown, humanity deserves to get wiped out. Do people have zero self control? My sis just linked me a story of mountains of fresh food being thrown out for recycling. Morons panic-bought food they didn't want, then dumped it when it's past its best. Didn't even donate it to those who need it!

We need way better controls on public behaviour in a crisis like thus than this level of individual freedom.
 
People being stupid buying food doesn't help. Food production hasn't changed (in the UK at least) but the shelves are constantly getting emptied. How much (perishable!) food are people wanting to stock up on, and why??
Agreed, but think many people are attempting to stock up so they can avoid stores for 2-3 weeks. I was amazed when I went to 3 supermarkets and saw the frozen vegetable sections complete empty. There is a lot of food people can freeze and many are hoarding and doing just that. We have an huge boat freezer in the garage that is far from full, but basically use for seafood, meats and a few frozen vegetables.

Even with the lockdown it's starting to feel getting coronavirus is inevitable as numbers increase daily. Eventually we will have to go out, which resets the 14-day contagion period.
 

I wish you guys knew Greek because John Ioannides now has more data and sheds a lot of light on the real numbers and the right strategies that should have been taken.
Real numbers show a different picture and the numbers in Italy have a lot of bias. In addition one of the reasons why Italy has so many deaths isnt because of the virus. It's because they were in panic mode. They were taking in mild, medium and the harsh conditions of the infected, the result was overloading an underfunded health system, personnel being overworked, availability of medical personnel being reduced because of exhaustion or because they were found with the disease, patients infecting each other etc. Many reported deaths also did not die because of the virus although they had the virus. Countries that did a proper sampling and tracking down did not have to go through lock down and managed to have less reported death rates 1% and below. The lock downs will have far more negative consequences in health, psychology and the economy which are not taken into account. Mathematical models based on incorrect numbers and wrong strategies conclude 18 months of lockdown to eradicate the problem which is wrong and far more destructive.
 
One of the major data-points seems to be very misleading. Since the very beginning of the outbreak, it's been said 15% of the over 80s die, and the elderly are at risk. But buried under that message is supposedly the fact that it's mostly only those with underlying health conditions at risk, and the only reason the over 80s are witnessing higher risk is because of the higher prevalence of health conditions within that age group. If so, then the healthy elderly don't need to be locked away any more than anyone else.

The demographics aren't transparent. The data has focussed on stratified age, but number of times someone's orbited the sun doesn't tell you a great about who they are, and is often a useless datapoint.
 
Oh I forgot also to add that he said Italy is the second highest in the world in terms of the percentage of elders in the general population of which many have various health problems. That's in line with what you just said
 
The problem with the 'Italy is old' argument is Japan and Germany are also very high, Japan being number one and Germany number three. And if you don't rank them and instead compare demographics, German and Italy are close and Japan is a fair way in the lead. So like listing the winners of the 100m sprint, and getting 1 - Bolt, 2- Thompson, 3 - Dix, that doesn't tell you that Bolt was way out in front and the next two were incredibly close.*

There are all sorts of correlations that are...circumstantial. Rather than looking every piece of data, we should only look at those that are relevant and discard the rest as noise, but at the moment it seems, in fairly typical fashion, the number processing is just looking at drawing conclusions from any comparative data points. It's like there's a panic rush to understand, and that panic can do more harm than good. We need real data scientists to process the data, peer review, and present findings, and for journalists and politicians and even doctors to shut the f@#$ up if they aren't presenting correct, validated, relevant data that informs choices and actions.

* And then you look up other data on 'old' and get different data that's more relevant in other ways...

Countries-with-the-largest-share-of-over-80-year-old-population-China-2012.png
 
Italy made a mistake with their strategy and responded in panic causing more harm. Then its how the numbers are being reported afterwards. So that creates bias in the virus severity reports in Italy. And yes then we have other demographical characteristics, like health and habits.
Dr Ioannides is collecting proper data analysis.
 
Regarding the large increase in number of deaths in Italy yesterday, I wonder if the medical professionals had to make a tough decision and decided to remove ventilation from patients with certain factors (infirmity and other health issues). We know the system is stretched to breaking, so perhaps they had to make the difficult choice to give up on the almost hopeless cases to treat those younger ones with a better chance of survival? Must be a horrific situation for the medical staff over there. In the aftermath, I wonder how many will leave the profession due to PTSD?

Trying to break down the figures to make sense of them is incredibly difficult as every country has different testing and reporting regimes and each is at a different stage of the epidemic with differing demographics. I'd imagine that all sorts of errors will have been made leading to additional deaths but trying to make the correct decisions when under pressure and with limited information/insight is all but impossible.
 
Regarding the large increase in number of deaths in Italy yesterday, I wonder if the medical professionals had to make a tough decision and decided to remove ventilation from patients with certain factors (infirmity and other health issues). We know the system is stretched to breaking, so perhaps they had to make the difficult choice to give up on the almost hopeless cases to treat those younger ones with a better chance of survival?
That's an interesting point, and I think if it's always senior doctors making the call, it won't be psychological impactful. Triage is necessary and all through their careers they've had to make those tough decisions and switch off aspirators for those who cannot recover. Junior doctors might suffer but senior consultants can be utterly emotionless bastards (as they need to be) and just process the numbers, keeping emotionally distant from the patients. It becomes harder when you form a bond with the patient. With so many patients who aren't able to talk, that probably isn't happening much.

It's more exhaustion that is a concern I think, especially as, after this is all over, they can't all get holiday time to recover.
 
Regarding the large increase in number of deaths in Italy yesterday, I wonder if the medical professionals had to make a tough decision and decided to remove ventilation from patients with certain factors (infirmity and other health issues). We know the system is stretched to breaking, so perhaps they had to make the difficult choice to give up on the almost hopeless cases to treat those younger ones with a better chance of survival? Must be a horrific situation for the medical staff over there. In the aftermath, I wonder how many will leave the profession due to PTSD?

Trying to break down the figures to make sense of them is incredibly difficult as every country has different testing and reporting regimes and each is at a different stage of the epidemic with differing demographics. I'd imagine that all sorts of errors will have been made leading to additional deaths but trying to make the correct decisions when under pressure and with limited information/insight is all but impossible.
Iceland and South Korea relied on extensive collection of random samples, and tracking those found with the infection and finding who they came into contact with. So they started mapping who has, where there might be more infected, who has symptoms and who falls into the sensitive category. This meant they could quarantine smaller areas or only the people that had the infection and accommodate into hospitals only those cases that were in dangerous condition. Unlike Italy where they were taking in hospitals mild cases as well because they were in panic due to the unknown nature of the virus. It is important to think in terms of capacity control and queuing models not in terms of the worst case scenario before having the data. Thats what Iceland and Italy did.
So they didnt have to quarantine their whole country and the cases were manageable.
 
That was in California, USA.

Updated: A 17-year-old whose death was initially linked to the novel coronavirus despite not having any previously reported health conditions was denied treatment at a California medical facility over his lack of insurance, according to the mayor.

R Rex Parris, the mayor of Lancaster, California, confirmed the teen’s death in a video posted to YouTube on Wednesday, in which he warned residents to take the global pandemic seriously and practice self-isolation and social distancing measures.

The mayor said the teen “didn’t have insurance, so they did not treat him” when he arrived at an urgent care facility in the area. The medical staff then told the child to go to a local public hospital.

“En route to AV Hospital, he went into cardiac arrest,” the mayor said. “They were able to revive him and keep him alive for about six hours. But by the time he got there, it was too late.”
 
Iceland and South Korea relied on extensive collection of random samples...So they didnt have to quarantine their whole country and the cases were manageable.
Iceland is a bit of a fringe case though in terms of population and movements, no? Few other places can be expected to operate that way with far bigger populations and far more travel.
 
Ohio's numbers today, confirmed: 1406 (up from 1137), Hospitalized: 344 (up from 276), and 25 Deaths (up from 19).
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 370 (Up from 330)

Deaths by County: Columbiana 1, Cuyahoga 3, Erie 1, Franklin 2, Gallia 1, Lake 1, Lucas 2, Mahoning 2, Miami 4, Stark 2, Trumbull 2, Summit 4
 
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