Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238837158007447558.html

I should be qualified to comment on the covid-19 pandemic. I'm a computational/system biologist working on infectious diseases and have spent five years in a world class 'pandemic response modelling' unit. In this thread, I will summarise what I believe I (don't) know. (1/12)
After having spent considerable time thinking how to mitigate and manage this pandemic, and analysing the available data. I failed to identify the best course of action. Even worse, I'm not sure there is such a thing as an acceptable solution to the problem we are facing. (2/12)
I believe that the covid-19 pandemic is the most serious global public health threat humanity faced since the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. There are major differences between the two events but I suspect there will also be similarities that may emerge once we look back. (3/12)
The most plausible scenario to me is for the covid-19 pandemic to wane in the late spring (in the Northern hemisphere), and come back as a second wave in the winter, which I expect could be even worse than what we're facing now. Pic below is what happened in 1918/19. (4/12)
Predictions from any model are only as good as the data that parametrised it. There are two major unknowns at this stage. (1) We don't know to what extent covid-19 transmission will be seasonal. (2) We don’t know if covid-19 infection induces long-lasting immunity. (5/12)
Seasonality is difficult to predict without time-series. Comparison between regions for the covid-19 pandemic suggests some seasonality, but likely less than for influenza. This would be roughly in line with other Coronaviridae (common cold and MERS). (6/12)
How long immunity lasts for following covid-19 infection is the biggest unknown. Comparison with other Coronaviridae suggests it may be relatively short-lived (i.e. months). If this were to be confirmed, it would add to the challenge of managing the pandemic. (7/12)
Short-lived immunisation would defeat both ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘herd immunity’ approaches. Devising an effective strategy would be even more challenging under low seasonal forcing. It would also considerably complicate effective vaccination campaigns. (8/12)
The covid-19 pandemic is an extremely challenging problem and there are still many unknowns. There is no simple fix, and poorly thought-out interventions could make the situation even worse, massively so. (10/12)
The covid-19 pandemic is not just an epidemiological problem. It is a ‘Global Health’ problem, that can only be tackled with an integrated and global approach. For example, there is no such thing as a choice between managing the pandemic vs. protecting the economy. (11/12)
Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim. (12/12)
 
Oh?
I’ve seen some rather large economic upheavals, and the elasticity of the economy is remarkable. Outside of stock market butterfly effects, base economy is pretty damn stable, unless you look at very short time spans. The interconnectedness that on one hand make effects propagate through the system, also helps maintain equilibrium overall. You sometimes just have to give it a bit of time to adjust.

Whereas people who die are dead. As long as it is noone you care about more than the immediate value of your stock portfolio, of course the economic effects will be worse than the disease. And a fair fraction of the population just don’t give a damn about the people dying in hospital corridors, as long as it is somebody elses mom, and have a hard time understanding that their priorities may nor be shared by others.

No, I don’t think the economic effects will be worse than the disease. But then, my yardsticks for measuring such things are clearly not universal.

The devastation I’m talking about is in regards to humans. A lot of individuals will suffer. The world economy that sustains billions is more than about just buying iphones and videogames.

About 10 million people die of starvation every year and that’s despite the half of trillion of dollars that people devote to charities annually.

Lower tax revenue can lead to gov’ts giving less funds to less wealthy countries who are dealing with famines and other travesties. And people when in fear do more than hoard food and water. They hoard their cash.
 
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relax mate your investments will bounce back


.... In about 2022

Quarantine starts tomorrow, now looking forward to it, stuck at home with my gf for the next 2 weeks.

Im not worried about my investments. I’m years from retirement. In fact I parked a bit cash to the side because we have been in a super long bull market that was due for a major correction.

But I’m not in even concerned about that now. My concern is how fragile our world is becoming by how we extremely we react to information now. And those extreme reactions are being driven by media that’s more tabloid in nature.

I’ve been slowly stocking up on essentials since the beginning of the year because you could see the fear slowly building up. Day after day of constant media coverage was bound to cause an irrational reaction. In my area all the supermarkets are almost stripped bare. I’ve haven’t been preparing for covid-19 the disease, I’ve been preparing for the irrational actions driven by fear.

And this isn’t a natural disaster where the damage is done in a day and affects a small local area. This can go on for months, meaning well into the fall or winter and the event is happening globally. Months of the “sky is falling” and people believing it will make the situation far worse than it should be.
 
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relax mate your investments will bounce back

I do agree with dobwal though. Lots of hysterical behavior for no good reason. Like the panic buying of toilet paper.

Such behavior is making a bad situation worse.

And to play the devil's advocate for a moment, many people die of many things that nobody gives any thought to. Many more people die of hearth disease or cancer. Don't hear anybody about that even though Corona would need to get like a 1000 times worse to get to the same amount of casualties.

Obviously steps need to be taken, but let all act sane about it.
 
That’s absolutely complete bullshit what you are saying about nobody giving thought to those other causes of death.
 
I do agree with dobwal though. Lots of hysterical behavior for no good reason. Like the panic buying of toilet paper.
Sadly, there is a good reason, because other people are buying it! And if people are being asked to stay in their homes for 2+ weeks, they need to stockpile. If they have just enough to last two weeks, then the moment everyone's free, it'll be an epic rush to the stores to buy stuff and stock up again. Realistically, large-scale population controls like these probably need large-scale resource allocation (rationing) introduced early enough. It's an impossibility to expect everyone to manage purchases in an ideal way when they don't know what the future is, what the supply chains are like, what timelines will be followed, etc.

And to play the devil's advocate for a moment, many people die of many things that nobody gives any thought to. Many more people die of hearth disease or cancer. Don't hear anybody about that...
Because they aren't contagious and capable of infecting half the population all at once. The reason why people aren't up in arms or panicking about starvation or flu or cancer etc. is because it doesn't affect them; certainly not in a way that requires immediate action to try and mitigate it. Covid-19 reaches everyone, leading to everyone trying to find a way to muddle through, meaning disorganisation. It would certainly help if the media acted responsibly - interesting RSPCA discussion there, should freedom of speech rights be revoked in times of crisis to ensure only the 'correct' message is passed on? But there's plenty of solid, easily discoverable info out there. Websites are even prompting people to official government sources.

I think we largely see community spirit and a people willing to do what's necessary. They just don't know what that is. As pressure increases, attitudes will swing towards survival-of-the-fittest and that's when things get ugly. But at this point, panic buying isn't so much stupidity as confused uncertainty and disorganisation, and I don't think the general public can be expected to organise themselves according to some sort of coordinated hive-mind.
 
Denmark have implemented help for employers and employees. Up to 3/4 of the salary is going to be compensated by the state for people who otherwise would loose their jobs and avoid getting fired and help companies running above water. Also companies can wait paying taxes until everything is back to normal again.
 
Just because others are doing it isn't a good reason. Besides, people are asked to stay inside as much as possible. Not told not to go out at all. That wouldn't work anyway because people need to buy food. And that is what makes the whole panic buying even dumber.

People are buying enough toilet paper to last for years, yet even running out of toilet paper is hardly a problem. Just take a shower. But very few people have enough space to store more than a week worth of food for a family.

The flu can infect half the population and most people aren't bothered by that. Even if half the population of a country would be infected with Corona, apart from the elderly, is the severity of the infection so high that there is reason to think that basic utilities and food supply will collapse?

Because I get the feeling that is what some people think.

I fully support governments taking action but people need to act sane and responsible. Not act like it's the apocalypse because it is not.
 
The flu can infect half the population and most people aren't bothered by that.
Because it's not going to kill them or the people they love.
Even if half the population of a country would be infected with Corona, apart from the elderly, is the severity of the infection so high that there is reason to think that basic utilities and food supply will collapse?
It's not. However, if everyone is forced to stay at home, there'll be zero economy for two weeks, and that will impact people. If the younger and not at risk were allowed to carry on as normal, there wouldn't be this economic pressure, but then you'll also have a lot faster spread of the disease and infection and deaths of the older people.

I fully support governments taking action but people need to act sane and responsible. Not act like it's the apocalypse because it is not.
Yes, but without coordination, how can they? I know the toilet paper won't run out. However, if I don't buy any on the rare chance it's available, I risk never being able to buy any; therefore, I need to buy TP when it's present, and buy enough to stockpile against future shortages. That's the only sensible thing to do - unless you have stores rationing how much TP people can buy.

As I say, you can't expect everyone to operate in the best way. In some cases, people plain aren't smart enough to understand, and it only takes a few less-aware people to start a run on something to cause a panic-buy response. There should probably be a 'no bulk buying' policy always in stores to prevent such runs. I'm sure there are solutions, but they'll take organisation. People will never self coordinate. Human diversity is such that all sorts of different survival strategies come into play on the individual level and these will conflict with each other and cause problems.
 
Denmark have implemented help for employers and employees. Up to 3/4 of the salary is going to be compensated by the state for people who otherwise would loose their jobs and avoid getting fired and help companies running above water. Also companies can wait paying taxes until everything is back to normal again.

I wonder how the ECB and EU will react. I'm sure that if the US will start major stimulus it will be backed up by Fed QE to keep the interest rates and service costs low, Japan style, but the situation in the EU is a fucking mess. Denmark being (mostly) sovereign always has fiscal room, but the PIGS do not and there is very little carry over from fiscal stimulus between EU countries.

If this is another 2008 level shock I think there are only two ways to save the Eurozone ... fiscal union with massive wealth transfer or Northern Eurozone accepting a far higher inflation target for a decade or so with relaxed deficit limits. While I would prefer the latter, I doubt the economic orthodoxy would ever go for it.
 
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...r-government-plan-herd-immunity-a9402661.html

Coronavirus: Hundreds of scientists warn UK government’s response to outbreak ‘risking lives’

Herd immunity plan ‘will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress’, group says


Peter Stubley
Sunday 15 March 2020 02:19

Hundreds of scientists have warned the British government that their response to the coronavirus epidemic is “risking many more lives than necessary”.

In an open letter published on Saturday night, more than 295 academics living and working in the UK backed calls for immediate measures to restrict the spread of Covid-19.

They criticised the UK’s strategy of delaying restrictions in a bid to achieve ”herd immunity”, arguing that it would put the NHS under even more stress.

“By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared,” the letter adds.

“We consider the social distancing measures taken as of today as insufficient, and we believe that additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world.”

The letter adds to the pressure on Boris Johnson to act quickly following confirmation that 10 more coronavirus patients have died, nearly doubling the total in one day to 21. The number of confirmed cases increased to 1,140.

France and Spain have both imposed partial lockdowns, including closures of most shops, cafes and restaurants. Italy, which has the highest number of cases outside China with more than 21,000, is already under total lockdown.

The government responded to the letter by saying that “we will be instituting our next planned interventions soon.”

“We will publish the modelling and data considered by Sage [the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies],” a spokesman added. ”We continue to be guided by the advice of the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser.”

Meanwhile the Department of Health and Social Care rejected the criticisms stated in the letter.

“Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic,” a spokesman said. “Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS.”

The letter has been signed by a wide range of scientists at UK universities, including professors, lecturers and PhD students in mathematics, biology, medicine and computer science.

Additional reporting by Press Association
 
“By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared,” the letter adds.
But for how long? Two weeks' lock-down only delays the spike by two weeks if the majority of people in lock-down aren't infected. If you want to lock down people until the infected have all had Covid19 and come through the other side, you need 4 weeks of no interaction, which people aren't prepared for - they'll run out of food. and then you need to close all borders until the rest of the world is clear. If you don't lock down long enough for all infected to have gone through the disease, you'll end up in exactly the same place 2 months after lockdown.

The UK decisions are based on modelling the spread. If other people have other models, they should present them. If their sentiments are just based on beer-mat speculations, they're only discussing a theory with a decent reference model.

“Herd immunity is not part of our action plan, but is a natural by-product of an epidemic,” a spokesman said. “Our aims are to save lives, protect the most vulnerable, and relieve pressure on our NHS.”
I guess it's the press's fault that people are confusing 'herd immunity' as the actual policy. It's about finding the best time to act with the lock-down to get the best flattening of the peak. That's the only move (once containment has failed) that can do any good.

The model and data will be good to present if it opens it up to peer review. Hell, let people run their own variations at home to evaluate the best option, although I doubt it requires huge amounts of processing such that a big computer can't evaluate it effectively.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...s-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Trump offers 'large sums' for exclusive access to coronavirus vaccine
German government tries to fight off aggressive takeover bid by US, say reports

The Trump administration has offered a German medical company “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German media have reported.

The German government is trying to fight off what it sees as an aggressive takeover bid by the US, the broadsheet Die Welt reports, citing German government circles.

The US president had offered the Tübingen-based biopharmaceutical company CureVac “large sums of money” to gain exclusive access to their work, wrote Die Welt.

According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”.

The German government was reportedly offering its own financial incentives for the vaccine to stay in the country.

When approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article.
 
Fortunately they aren't the only ones working on a vaccine. I know the University of Saskatchewan (2 minutes from my house) submitted a vaccine for testing a few days ago. I suspect there are many more already in the pipeline.
 
According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”.
WTF? Why exclusively? Surely you'd license and produce elsewhere if the stuff works so everyone has access? All the talk of vaccine research has been about it being collaborative, with humanity finding a cure for humanity. For any nation to seek to save itself and let the rest of the world get fucked is...deserving of contempt, shall we say.

What I'd expect is this German phamaceutical to license manufacture (they want to profit this like a good little capitalist corporation) so countries all around the world can make it, if it works, which seems a little implausible this early on although it may be building on previous SARS-type work.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ine-be-ready-human-trials-global-immunisation
About 35 companies and academic institutions are racing to create such a vaccine, at least four of which already have candidates they have been testing in animals. The first of these – produced by Boston-based biotech firm Moderna – will enter human trials in April.

This unprecedented speed is thanks in large part to early Chinese efforts to sequence the genetic material of Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. China shared that sequence in early January, allowing research groups around the world to grow the live virus and study how it invades human cells and makes people sick.
Shared, not sold...
 
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