Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

And that’s also what complicates things for Shifty’s reasoning above. If say 15% develop a life threading pneumonia of the lower lungs, sure, we can rescue most of them when we have sufficient capacity to treat them.

This is the important point.

Critically ill patients need to be ventilated, really critically ill patients need extra support with Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines. The high initial mortality rate in Wuhan was because they ran out of hardware and they typically have 50 ventilators per hospital, multiple times more than what you'll find in an average western hospital; The high number of ventilators is a direct consequence of having to deal with SARS in 2002/3.

At this point we can't stop the spread of the virus, but we must keep the number of people infected low, otherwise we risk exhausting our treatment capacity at which point people will drop like flies.

Cheers
 
I'm not sure they ever really believed they could fully contain it, but delaying the peak so it isn't during flu season is considered beneficial.

Also, you can quote multiple posts in one reply. Use the "+Quote" button next to the posts you want to quote.
I use Tapatalk

Many people (50%) actually don't even know they have catched and get then contagious... but never known they have catched something... Another 30% have a quite normal flu, the restant 15% have trouble, and a 5% big trouble.
 
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Speaking of US Failure to contain...


I just landed at JFK after reporting on #coronavirus in Milan and Lombardy —the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak— for
@vicenews
. I walked right through US customs. They didn’t ask me where in Italy I went or if I came into contact with sick people. They didn’t ask me anything.
I see your bad customs officers and raise with schoolboy going to school while infected and some symptoms, getting half the school under quarantine - but his parents aren't quarantined or limited in any way even when it's clear they've been exposed.
(don't have link to this in english sadly)
 
Exclusive: The Strongest Evidence Yet That America Is Botching Coronavirus Testing
“I don’t know what went wrong,” a former CDC chief told The Atlantic.

It’s one of the most urgent questions in the United States right now: How many people have actually been tested for the coronavirus?

This number would give a sense of how widespread the disease is, and how forceful a response to it the United States is mustering. But for days, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has refused to publish such a count, despite public anxiety and criticism from Congress. On Monday, Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, estimated that “by the end of this week, close to a million tests will be able to be performed” in the United States. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence promised that “roughly 1.5 million tests” would be available this week.

But the number of tests performed across the country has fallen far short of those projections, despite extraordinarily high demand, The Atlantic has found.

“The CDC got this right with H1N1 and Zika, and produced huge quantities of test kits that went around the country,” Thomas Frieden, the director of the CDC from 2009 to 2017, told us. “I don’t know what went wrong this time.”

Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive. And while the American capacity to test for the coronavirus has ramped up significantly over the past few days, local officials can still test only several thousand people a day, not the tens or hundreds of thousands indicated by the White House’s promises.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...mericans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/
 
You know it has a huge impact when there are events scheduled for September that are being postponed until 2021.

https://www.minecraft.net/en-us/article/minecraft-festival-postponed

You were excited. We were excited. Overall excitement was palpable as Minecraft Festival tickets were going to be released on Friday of this week, officially kickstarting the countdown to our in-person blockstravaganza this September. But after careful consideration and much hand-wringing, we have decided to postpone the event until next year.

In recent weeks, the COVID-19 outbreak has led many organizers to cancel or postpone gatherings and events across the world, as a preventive measure to ensure the health and safety of their guests. The situation around Minecraft Festival, however, is a little different. September is still many months away, and we are not making any predictions about how long it will take to put the outbreak behind us. This decision is rather a result of the extensive preparations required to organize a mammoth event like this.

Our partners, producers, and exhibitors are based in all corners of the world, and right now we can’t meet and collaborate in the way we need to. Without knowing exactly when we can resume planning, we have decided to postpone. That way, we can make sure that next year’s event will be the amazing one that our community expects and deserves.​
 
Wow trump really is a huge cunt and makes no secrets about it
speaking yesterday about the ship moored off San Francisco

“I like the numbers being where they are,” “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault.”
:runaway:
Basically he would prefer these american ship passengers, to most likely suffer a similar fate to those in that ship off japan, than to take them ashore and add them to USA's total of covid-19 infected, which is already 330+ (an extra 21 aint gonna massively change this)
i.e. his numbers looking good are more important than american lives, a top bloke.
Anyway whats he concerned about didnt he say there will be zero cases in USA round about now

FFS we've already ran the experiment, quarantine on ship == no good, didnt dufus in charge read the memo, oh thats right he was to busy suggesting to give everyone the flu vaccine :rolleyes:
 
Money uber alles,

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe...BKy2nTnqKaRHCAV&reflink=article_copyURL_share

European Nations Diverge on How to Curb Virus Outbreak

Governments struggle to find the right balance between protecting public health and shielding the economy from disruption


By Bojan Pancevski in Berlin, Giovanni Legorano in Rome and Jason Douglas in London
Updated March 2, 2020 5:31 pm ET



European governments are divided in their response to the coronavirus, which has rapidly hopped across borders on the densely populated continent, as they seek to balance protecting public health with economic disruption.

Countries including Italy, France, Britain and Switzerland have taken an aggressive approach, banning large events and ordering large-scale blanket screenings. Germany, Austria, Spain and most Scandinavian countries, on the other hand, have stressed the need for moderation to limit the impact of the disease—and of the response—on society and the economy.

The different approaches highlight the difficulty in coordinating a crisis-management system on a continent where political borders offer little barrier to the spread of the virus. They also expose anxiety among Europe’s leaders that the economic impact of the epidemic could turn a lingering downturn into a full-blown recession.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel said over the weekend that Europe’s most populous nation and its biggest economy would be measured and moderate in its response. Germany has reported around 160 infections.

“We must not allow for this virus to damage or ruin the economic upturn that has just emerged on the horizon,” Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said Monday.

Ms. Merkel and her Austrian counterpart Sebastian Kurz agreed during a phone call last week to avoid border closures or any steps that would interrupt supply chains and adversely affect business, said people familiar with the talks.

And while Italy has announced measures to cushion the economic impact of the epidemic in the country’s economically strong northern region, the location of Europe’s worst outbreak so far, officials in Berlin and Vienna said they weren’t now planning any fiscal stimulus.

The novelty of the virus means governments have largely improvised their responses. Still, the World Health Organization has praised China’s draconian response to the virus. After the outbreak started there, Beijing sealed off entire regions and millions of people were put under lockdown—hitting the local and global economy hard.

The WHO’s recommendation for affected countries has been to trigger the top general health alert level and test all patients with atypical pneumonias for the presence of the virus. While about 80% of novel coronavirus patients only experience mild discomfort, others can develop severe respiratory problems and organ failure.

Germany, Austria and other countries haven’t followed up on those guidelines, nor have they banned large public events or ordered mass closures of schools and kindergartens. Germany set its alert level to “moderate” on Monday. It and others have limited testing to people with symptoms who had traveled to affected areas or had contact with infected individuals. People with severe influenza symptoms have occasionally been tested.

On Monday, the German government servers hosting information about the virus became overloaded and hotlines clogged. Many doctors have complained about the absence of guidelines or material support from the country’s regional health authorities—their first resource in an emergency.

Officials have pushed back against the criticism, saying they had to balance several priorities. “We cannot do what China has done here, as that would start a panic, runs on supermarkets and banks, and any contingency measure has a negative effect on businesses and the real economy,” said a senior German government official involved in the crisis management.

Christian Drosten, head of the virology department at Berlin’s Charité hospital, the country’s largest, told a press conference on Monday “people die anyway, and at the rate of around 850,000 a year” in Germany.

Officials in Spain, which had reported 114 patients by Monday night, said it was focused on containing pockets of coronavirus outbreak, but has no plans to cancel public events. Spanish authorities said they may consider temporarily shutting some schools in the Madrid and Basque Country regions and banning public gatherings such as sport events, should the number of infections rise.

Many cases in Spain have been imported from Italy, said Spanish authorities. For instance, a group of five Italian tourists tested positive in the Canary Islands. About 1,000 people at the hotel where they were staying were put under quarantine last week.

“Right now in Spain we are maintaining a phase of containment. In this phase, at this time, we are not recommending the suspension of social events,” said Fernando Simón, director of the center for health alerts and emergencies at the Ministry of Health. In particular, he cited planned demonstrations throughout Spain scheduled for International Women’s Day on Sunday March 8.

By contrast, Italy’s government declared a state of medical emergency on Jan. 31, which gives the central government power to override local authorities. On the same day, Italy banned all direct flights to and from China, the only EU country to do so.

The measures, however, didn’t prevent Italy from becoming the center of the coronavirus crisis in Europe, with 2,036 people confirmed infected by Monday, according to Italy’s Civil Protection Agency. Of those, 52 have died and 149 have fully recovered. Italy now has the world’s third-highest number of cases after China and South-Korea.

Italy has sealed off entire towns in its heavily affected northern region and tested 20,000 people, many with no symptoms. After these blanket tests returned a high percentage of negative results, authorities have adopted a more targeted approach, testing only symptomatic patients.

In neighboring Switzerland, all events involving over 1,000 participants—including soccer games and political rallies—were banned. The government has summoned a crisis summit for next week with business, unions and local authorities to discuss a possible fiscal and monetary stimulus, according to a government statement.

France, which has roughly the same number of cases as Germany, has banned all gatherings of over 5,000 people, with some regions barring all public events. To help curb the contagion, the government has advised people to stop shaking hands and abandon the customary greeting of a kiss on the cheek.

In the U.K., where 40 cases of coronavirus infection have been confirmed, health authorities have tested more than 13,500 people for the virus in an effort to track down potential carriers. The efforts have so far focused on those returning from Asia, Iran and Italy and those who have been in contact with an infected person. At Heathrow Airport, one of the world’s busiest, medical personnel are examining travelers arriving from China for symptoms around the clock.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday chaired a meeting of senior ministers and medical officials to discuss further measures. The government has granted health professionals the legal powers to detain patients at risk of spreading the illness. An information campaign about best practices to slow the transmission is due to roll out within days.

The U.K. has stopped short of canceling sporting events or other large gatherings for now. Mr. Johnson said Monday people should in most cases go about their business as usual.

The U.K. government is due to announce further steps to combat the virus Tuesday. They will include encouraging workers to stay at home if possible and drawing up a register of retired healthcare professionals who can be pressed into service if needed, Downing Street said late Monday.

“It is highly likely coronavirus will spread more widely in the coming days and weeks, which is why we’re making every possible preparation,” Mr. Johnson said in a statement.



—Sara Germano in Berlin contributed to this article.
 
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9 PM and my mom just told me to change the whole dispenser water gallon and clean the reservoir because the gallon was refilled by my cousin who's got a flu with runny nose.

TV news really need to stop throwing gasoline to the fire. The way they portray COVID-19 is full with scary words, with scary narrative, with scary presentation (music, narration tone, VFX, etc) every single day.
 
From @green.pixel's article:
They will include encouraging workers to stay at home if possible and drawing up a register of retired healthcare professionals who can be pressed into service if needed, Downing Street said late Monday.
Aren't "retired healthcare professionals" more at risk to catch coronavirus?
 
Or you need to educate your mom.

But I guess over here the problem is primarily that people aren’t worried enough it seems.
 
Or you need to educate your mom.

But I guess over here the problem is primarily that people aren’t worried enough it seems.

She already knew she was being paranoid :D

There's a lot of room between hiding in a bomb shelter and licking door handles.

Wash your hands, do not cough on people, stay home if ill.

The weird thing in Indonesia, dunno how it Is in other countries... People got paranoid, wearing paper masks, buying all stock of hand sanitizer, mask, etc...

But the health culture didn't change. When you are ill, you are still expected to do your job / go to school as usual. Unless you are bedridden.
 
Here only foreigners seem to wear masks it seems. A small percentage increase in stockpile related food stuff, and hand soap. Not much else is happening ... yet anyway. But holidays and flights, people are planning those a lot less.
 
TV news really need to stop throwing gasoline to the fire. The way they portray COVID-19 is full with scary words, with scary narrative, with scary presentation (music, narration tone, VFX, etc) every single day.
I was thinking about that the other day. When a musician is given the job to compose a soundtrack to a disaster, how do they go about that? How do they decide how much dread and menace to add to their soundtrack, versus stoic resolve and hope?
Aren't "retired healthcare professionals" more at risk to catch coronavirus?
As likely, but more likely to have a serious reaction.

But I guess over here the problem is primarily that people aren’t worried enough it seems.
There's a lot of room between hiding in a bomb shelter and licking door handles.

Wash your hands, do not cough on people, stay home if ill.
I think that advice actually isn't enough. Earlier I posted about the economic impacts of everyone missing work and whether it's worth that economic damage. But then when you crunch the people-impact, the 'good hygiene' approach isn't going to stave it off. The UK is seeing growth of as much as 30% per day. Although we're talking numbers down in the hundreds in a population of millions so it doesn't seem a big deal, it shows exponential growth.

At 200 confirmed cases reported today, we'll be 40,000 cases by the end of the month, and the entire population by the end of April, unless we think these people getting infected aren't practising good enough hygiene. But the requirements for things like 'don't touch your face' go against our instincts, and without enough concern, people will carry on as normal, with many silently spreading the disease without realising. My mother is a Catholic and was talking about the Eucharist, drinking the wine at mass, and being fairly blasé against the risks, but that's a fairly worst-case scenario, everyone sharing a drinking-cup. I have a friend who works retail in Canary Wharf with an ill mother who's looking at having a significant operation soon. How many go-getter business men will avoid going into work to work the financial markets? I doubt any, seeing as they just have a cold for a few days, as they see it. And then my friend is likely to get infected, and then his mother who's definitely at risk.

Banning a few large venues won't stop it passing from smaller community to community. From gym to theatre to cinema to pub to dance classes to restaurant to family event. Yet if people aren't going to lock down more seriously, which they'd never be convinced to do until the bodies start piling up, then Covid19 won't stop spreading.

Sadly, I think it's a more complex situation than "wash your hands and you'll be fine," suggests. For one, "stay home if you're ill" only works if you have a noteworthy reaction. If you develop very mild symptoms, you may not think its Covid19 and carry on. I had a very mild sore throat and barely registering moment's of the slightest dry cough a week or so ago; if I had those symptoms next-week, should I assume its Covid? Take two week's off work over what might be nothing? If we want to stop Covid's spread, yes, but I doubt anyone (including myself) would take such a strong decision.

I guess TLDR; I don't think diseases respect moderate responses.
 
Well most people basically 'never' wash their hands properly.

I don't think enough time has passed to adequately assess if the response is working. It was always going to get worse in europe because of the time line.
 
Well, that's the other problem. If you wait two weeks to see if measures are working and it turns out they weren't, then you've potentially tens of thousands of infected walking around. If you come down hard from the very beginning, you know you have the best chance of containment working.

Though there's a lot of room between hiding in a bomb shelter and licking door handles, everyone hiding in a bomb shelter is actually the only way to be sure of containment. The more freedoms you allow, you more you are relying on luck. But of course, closing down a country and sealing its borders for 14 days would collapse its commerce and generate a whole host of man-made problems.
 
The potential economic collapse is also a potential health disaster. You create a situation where medical supplies and pharmaceuticals become rationed and otherwise mild medical conditions become life threatening and further drain on health care.

The response needs to be measured to prevent a different crisis and hope to slow or contain covid-19 enough that an immunization becomes available.
 
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