Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[iroboto]

Listening for some minute, seems he does not use this world. Calling it 'data driven animation', or... IDK. But they will come op with something that sounds new, different, and progressive.
Maybe he catched up the rumor before the marketing teams came up with something fancy. We will see in 3 days...

hmm.. on second pass here; now that I had a moment to nap. He wrote:
animation interpolation (adding 60 fps support to 30 fps games)

so this hints to me as a backwards compatibility feature here. You must be able to perform interpolation without changing the code.
If this is accurate; then this makes more sense here as opposed to what we originally discussed.

Some red flags for me in the post, but with a 2 days to wait; I'm just going to wait instead of wearing out my keycaps again.

 

[temesgen]

Sony could have simply guessed wrong. At the time the decisions about the design had to be made a lot of these variables were unknown. Last time, Sony gambled on the 8 GB of RAM and it paid off. This time, maybe their decisions won’t payoff. I don’t know.

I bet Sony didn’t think MS would allow the Xbox division to build such a large chip for XSX. All indications were that hardware wasn’t that important to MS.

If Sony did realize MS would push the narrative they need to fire a lot of people. MS has a narrower but very good book of exclusive IPs so BC and the best possible third party experience (power/quality of service) is their best foot forward.

I just don't think Sony or MS plans are as a reaction to what the other will do. It's a very vocal small segment of consumers who care about relative power.

 

[AlNom]

hmm.. on second pass here; now that I had a moment to nap. He wrote:
animation interpolation (adding 60 fps support to 30 fps games)

so this hints to me as a backwards compatibility feature here. You must be able to perform interpolation without changing the code.
If this is accurate; then this makes more sense here as opposed to what we originally discussed.

Some red flags for me in the post, but with a 2 days to wait; I'm just going to wait instead of wearing out my keycaps again.

Will it work on Halo 5's animations.

I keed.

I'd be curious about Forza Horizon 2 & 3 if it happened or even 360 titles? :O

 

[AlNom]

If Sony did realize MS would push the narrative they need to fire a lot of people. MS has a narrower but very good book of exclusive IPs so BC and the best possible third party experience (power/quality of service) is their best foot forward.

I don't think many guessed on the two-prong approach. *cough* Although if paying attention to the narrative of console power & compatibility with the release of Scorpio, it might have been one of the only ways to do it reasonably while covering the various market price points.

MS is very much a ninja dog with very limited unique selling points next to Sony. If folks are already disappointed with how copy/paste this past gen and news of next gen is shaping up, can you imagine just how it would have been if both were targeting the same price point from the getgo?

MS may have a staple of old IPs to fall back on, but it's not enough, and their recent shotgun spending spree for studios is exactly what they needed to reduce the risk of total failure in the event that the mainline IPs fail to capture the ever-changing market. BC is a nice bonus, but shouldn't be relied upon as a major selling point.

i.e. So the question at its hart is, "what else have they got besides playing old games, and how can they solve that."


....anyways.

 

[Scott_Arm]

@TheAlSpark What else have they got? Let me introduce you to Clippy for Xbox ...

 

[AlNom]

I think Clippy should be Master Chief's new assistant.

 

[iroboto]

Will it work on Halo 5's animations.

I keed.

I'd be curious about Forza Horizon 2 & 3 if it happened or even 360 titles? :O

Well, honestly, I wouldn't. That would exactly be the use case I suspect. The rumour feels like bullshit (but it's too close to the date that I don't care). But it's damn good bullshit. Sounds like the type of shit MS would do to continually improve on the next BC experiences to get more people to want to upgrade.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

MS may have a staple of old IPs to fall back on, but it's not enough...

This is especially true when you considere how those IPs were treated, especially when Phil Harrison was in charge of Microsoft Game Studios. While MS bungled Halo without him, he almost drove their entire stable of game studios into the ground.

Thankfully, at least the Forza IP was relatively untouched by him and Gears managed to survive his trying to inject microtransactions into it. Also, Minecraft working out surprisingly well for them despite the 2 billion USD price tag helped mitigate the damage.

MS is slowly regaining gamers trust with their core IP, but it's still not where it was at in the first half of the X360's life. Picking up some key 3rd party studios with proven track records has certainly helped. Well, Double Fine is really hit and miss, but fans love them none-the-less.

If they can right the ship WRT Halo, I'll give them a pass. But I'm still skeptical that they finally understand what Halo is and what Halo gamers want. However, it "seems" like they might have a clue now.

Regards,
SB

 

[iroboto]

If Sony did realize MS would push the narrative they need to fire a lot of people. MS has a narrower but very good book of exclusive IPs so BC and the best possible third party experience (power/quality of service) is their best foot forward.

I just don't think Sony or MS plans are as a reaction to what the other will do. It's a very vocal small segment of consumers who care about relative power.

I think if there was a reaction, it would only be to include BC on PS5. That's about as far as I would go in terms of a 'reaction'. But I also believe market forces, the way games are being played today, that support for BC was inevitable, MS just moved on it first.

That move to support BC for PS4, we do not know of it's implications unfortunately. We won't know until the final hardware is released.

 

[iroboto]

some talk on both consoles starting around ~17:30

edit: ray tracing performance on RDNA2 may not be that great
edit: he works out the CUs on XSX using the frequency from leaks
edit: he believes that PS5 will be 9.2 TF at 2Ghz. (or at least he doesn't seem to refute the gap in raw teraflops)

 

[Globalisateur]

Is it possible to make an educated guess about cost difference Oberon vs. Arden?
What bothers me: Oberon at 2 GHz may have worse yields than Arden, ending up having similar cost. And if so, Sony may have decided to go wide too?
AMD would only need to... 'scratch the XBox logo from Arden', so could deliver in time? (sort of serious sarcasm, this time.)

Indeed. Sony are not going to produce million of APUs using 7nm DUV at 2ghz. It's not happening.

I don't think many guessed on the two-prong approach. *cough* Although if paying attention to the narrative of console power & compatibility with the release of Scorpio, it might have been one of the only ways to do it reasonably while covering the various market price points.

MS is very much a ninja dog with very limited unique selling points next to Sony. If folks are already disappointed with how copy/paste this past gen and news of next gen is shaping up, can you imagine just how it would have been if both were targeting the same price point from the getgo?

MS may have a staple of old IPs to fall back on, but it's not enough, and their recent shotgun spending spree for studios is exactly what they needed to reduce the risk of total failure in the event that the mainline IPs fail to capture the ever-changing market. BC is a nice bonus, but shouldn't be relied upon as a major selling point.

i.e. So the question at its hart is, "what else have they got besides playing old games, and how can they solve that."


....anyways.

Yep, they have interesting IPs indeed. I think their most promising next game is going to be Flight Simulator. If they do that one right, it could be their most successful IP with Forza Horizon.

Also Halo, of course is a promising IP runaway, but I was very disappointed by Halo infinite reveal. Didn't look promising, and the fact that it's going to run on XB1 is surely not helping. But even the artstyle is not good. And where is the epicness of Halo CE ?

But most importantly, they have a bloody fun old underused IP: Midtown Madness. Now that was a fun game ! The last game was in 2003 .

 

[function]

May I introduce you to...

https://www.reddit.com/r/PS5/comments/bqy778

Or this one that leaked month later...

View attachment 3630

Wow would you look at that...16 chips, 16GB, 528GB/s BW. And 13F9 (Oberon) to boot!

Interesting!

Obviously got to take anything anonymous on the internet with a huge pinch of salt, but ... a lot of that actually makes sense, especially for a devkit. You're going to want the capability to go to 32GB of ram asap, and your SSD is probably going to be over specced too.

(I very strongly suspect that both final XSX and final PS5 will have a reasonably large QLC SSD, but with a large game-addressable portion set to SLC mode via a customised controller to increase durability by 100x or so).

On PS4 the DDR3 hangs off a Southbridge, presumably connected to the main SoC via PCIe. So it would make sense that on PS5 a pool of DDR4 - serving a similar purpose - would sit physically close to the flash memory also sitting via some means on the PCIe bus.

It might even be that a suitably configured flash controller could allow control by the OS over what you put in connected DDR4 memory. You could resume a game from suspend while loading dash apps back into the DDR4 invisibly, or perhaps send streaming footage there as a buffer, committing it to permanent storage only if given the go-ahead by the OS. I dunno, stuff like that.

The other quirk around the GDDR6 is the extensive articles/PR over two years ago (January 2018) from Samsung that 18Gbps chips entered mass production yet still they don't seem to exist as such. No corrections were ever made to the articles I'm aware of.

Clearly something went wrong there.

If it's the same press release I'm thinking of (feeding countless news/blog articles) it was ambiguous in that it appeared to indicate that all speeds of GDDR6 were in mass production and readily available at that moment, while only actually confirming 14 Gbps....

 

[JoeJ]

hmm.. on second pass here; now that I had a moment to nap. He wrote:
animation interpolation (adding 60 fps support to 30 fps games)

so this hints to me as a backwards compatibility feature here. You must be able to perform interpolation without changing the code.
If this is accurate; then this makes more sense here as opposed to what we originally discussed.

Some red flags for me in the post, but with a 2 days to wait; I'm just going to wait instead of wearing out my keycaps again.

Oh, yes - you're right! So, you was on spot with the sprite example also.

Upscaling and now inter frame interpolation... 8K, here we go!

 

[AlNom]

This is especially true when you considere how those IPs were treated, especially when Phil Harrison was in charge of Microsoft Game Studios. While MS bungled Halo without him, he almost drove their entire stable of game studios into the ground.

Thankfully, at least the Forza IP was relatively untouched by him and Gears managed to survive his trying to inject microtransactions into it. Also, Minecraft working out surprisingly well for them despite the 2 billion USD price tag helped mitigate the damage.

MS is slowly regaining gamers trust with their core IP, but it's still not where it was at in the first half of the X360's life. Picking up some key 3rd party studios with proven track records has certainly helped. Well, Double Fine is really hit and miss, but fans love them none-the-less.

If they can right the ship WRT Halo, I'll give them a pass. But I'm still skeptical that they finally understand what Halo is and what Halo gamers want. However, it "seems" like they might have a clue now.

Regards,
SB

Many points for using "bungle".

 

[Scott_Arm]

Oh, yes - you're right! So, you was on spot with the sprite example also.

Upscaling and now inter frame interpolation... 8K, here we go!

First we use temporal data to upscale from 960x540 to 1920x1080. Then we use DLSS to upscale to 4k. Then we use frame interpolation to go from 30 fps to 60fps. To get to 8k you just send every frame to Azure and get sent back a hand drawn image made by the Cuphead team.

 

[N2O]

Well it seems that Tommy Fisher dude from gaf just get caught for lying.

 

[Globalisateur]

O'dium on Gaf: Current PS5 devkit is at exactly 11.6 tflops :

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/next...ation-analysis-leaks-thread.1480978/page-1214

 

[N2O]

O'dium on Gaf: Current PS5 devkit is at exactly 11.6 tflops :

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/next...ation-analysis-leaks-thread.1480978/page-1214

These "insiders" sure love to write a long ass reply from what they "heard", it's like they're actually writing some fan fiction.

 

[Globalisateur]

Tommy Fisher was always a fraud. Never vetted and very quickly full of BS in his statements. O'dium is vetted (at Era) and a known developer.

 

[N2O]

Well let me tell you where is this 11.6TF from then.
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/next...-leaks-thread.1480978/page-894#post-256854099

It was Xbox Series X's "leaked" TF number before MS officially announce RDNA2 12TF.