Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[fehu]

Thats it all. Sony missed it this time.

We are almost a year form the launch!

 

[VitaminB6]

I don't get the hatred towards the GitHub leak lol. It definitely was a real test on a Sony APU but it also doesn't completely rule out Sony having a higher CU count. It was one test and there certainly could be other tests that were not leaked that showed Sony have 48 CU(or insert whatever CU count you like I will say that MS seems very confident and I think their announcement puts even more pressure on Sony to show their cards.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Who says it's a massive breakthrough? Could just be different, such as less powerful but more versatile, or faster in some specific RT workloads while compromised in others. As for why Sony should have tech worked on in secret, 1) they don't publicly talk about R&D - who does? So of course and investigations would be in secret. 2) None of the GPU makers were talking about RTRT (working on it in secret as nVidia was, and doing nothing as AMD was) so if Sony felt that was an area that could be pursued for PS5 but they couldn't rely on their GPU partners to offer a solution, they could investigate it themselves. Sony aren't averse to creating custom silicon to build the platform they want.

I'm not arguing it's likely, but it's not preposterous as you suggest.

It can't derail the conversation if it is the conversation, and what the hell else do you want to talk about?! You want another round of "which GAF source is fake"? What threads are being derailed?

AMD “doing nothing” on RT? They’ve had a ray tracing SDK since at least 2015, which means they’ve been working on it longer.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

AMD “doing nothing” on RT? They’ve had a ray tracing SDK since at least 2015, which means they’ve been working on it longer.

And I still speculate that NAVI was originally supposed to release in 2018 (shown on roadmaps) with RT to coincide with the launch of DXR. Basically similar to how hardware historically came out from both IHVs relatively close to when a new level of DX is released.

That would have meant PS5 in 2019 with NAVI and RT. But something didn't go according to plan over at AMD. Perhaps their original idea for RT acceleration on NAVI didn't pan out or wasn't quite right so they cut it. But that delayed NAVI coming to market and pushed back RT. And the cascade effect is that PS5 ends up being a 2020 product instead of a 2019 product as had been widely rumored by insiders.

Things like this have happened in the past. For example, Fermi getting delayed and missing the launch of DX11 while AMD had their product out in time. Granted the Navi and RT delay is significantly worse.

Regards,
SB

 

[Nesh]

And I still speculate that NAVI was originally supposed to release in 2018 (shown on roadmaps) with RT to coincide with the launch of DXR. Basically similar to how hardware historically came out from both IHVs relatively close to when a new level of DX is released.

That would have meant PS5 in 2019 with NAVI and RT. But something didn't go according to plan over at AMD. Perhaps their original idea for RT acceleration on NAVI didn't pan out or wasn't quite right so they cut it. But that delayed NAVI coming to market and pushed back RT. And the cascade effect is that PS5 ends up being a 2020 product instead of a 2019 product as had been widely rumored by insiders.

Things like this have happened in the past. For example, Fermi getting delayed and missing the launch of DX11 while AMD had their product out in time. Granted the Navi and RT delay is significantly worse.

Regards,
SB

How about the possibility that both MS and Sony wanted a 2020 release and therefore AMD decided to delay and refine and come out with a bang with the next gen release of consoles? I doubt Sony would have wanted to announce sooner and slow down the PS4 sales.

 

[PSman1700]

A 9TF ps5 seems more and more realistic then before now. Sony probably didnt want a pc and/or a 2 sku launch.

 

[chris1515]

https://www.resetera.com/threads/next-gen-ps5-and-next-xbox-speculation-ot11-all-hell-has-broken-loose-contest-inside.168732/post-29380592

I was spot on with my prediction why a console could be above 10 Tflops last year because AMD 2020 midrange GPU will be well above 10 Tflops and the high end(80 Cus monster) will be much higher. Now just wait but this one is not fun because someone said it to me than the PS5 SSD speed will be above 7 GB/s.

 

[McHuj]

I don't get the hatred towards the GitHub leak lol. It definitely was a real test on a Sony APU but it also doesn't completely rule out Sony having a higher CU count. .

It's because my favorite plastic box might lower in power and my mind can't comprehend that...


For me it's pretty clear that Oberon is Sony related. The question for me is whether Oberon is PS5 or was PS5 (2019 version).

If it's still PS5, then a 8-10 TF PS5, it is. If Sony got worried about performance, they could eat the cost and go for fully enabled 40 CU chips. Maybe that's why there articles about how their costs are unexpectedly high.

If Oberon was PS5 (rumored 2019 target that got moved), then may, just maybe, there's another chip out there that wasn't included in the github leak. However small, It's a possibility. Adding CU's to an existing design is very disruptive, but not on the order of a complete redesign. Most of the work would be in additional verification and the physical layout. As to why Oberon is still testing and going through silicon, maybe AMD can sell it to another customer like the next Chinese console (it's possible a further stepping fuses of Sony IP and then it's just a generic APU) or Sony is potentially launching a Lockhart-type box as well (there were some rumors).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

AMD “doing nothing” on RT? They’ve had a ray tracing SDK since at least 2015, which means they’ve been working on it longer.

They've been working on compute-based acceleration. They haven't had RTRT in hardware despite knowing DXR was coming.

nVidia - bam! - RTX, slammed on the table, look at that!
AMD - oh, okay, we're doing hardware acceleration for raytracing now? Is that a thing? I thought we were just doing compute-based acceleration.

Or at least, that's how it looks given AMD's public front on the RTRT discussion and what they've considered worth releasing. But then maybe they been at it just as long as nVidia and just decided the quality of RTRT wasn't worth including until they had faster GPUs?

Note : I'm just kinda arguing for argument's sake here.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

* as of very recently SX still had the cpu power crown in an older dev kit (which still wasn’t final), which matches these specs. Sony have a more final dev kit out that matches their target specs that is clocked slightly lower. The actual difference in cpu clock speed isn’t as high as you may think, but still in favour of SX (like a couple hundres MHz) Cpu clocks can be changed slightly, if you have enough room for it, but don’t expect miracles. I don’t have a value, a hard figure, sorry.

PS5 has a lower clocked CPU, by around 200MHz.

GPU power grunt is much much the same as the above, with SX taking a lead over PS5, again based on target specs and finality of dev kits. This can also be changed if you have the room for it, even now, but again talking slight, slight clock increases. PS5 is already having higher temp thermals, so I doubt they can do much (see below). I also don’t have a concrete figure here

Sony having higher thermals depite lower clocked CPU could point either to a worse cooling solution or a narrower GPU that is clocking higher, or a combination of both.

terra flop wise, it’s hard to get a clear picture of. I’m actually going to say what I was told earlier... “Notice MS keep saying it’s 12tf of power, but not once have they said 12.0tf?” So it’s possible SX may be higher than a bang on 12tf, such as 12.2. No idea. But target specs for PS5 have been high 10tf to low 11tf for a while, including their more final dev kit. It’s worth noting that if PS5 release let’s say a 11.2tf PS5 and ms release a 12tf SX, the price of the systems will be essentially on par, but the performance will also be so damn close you wouldn’t really notice unless pointed out. I don’t know why people are posting above 13tf, 13.8? Haha, ok. Erm, look, the 12 dream was very hard to reach at a decent price, a decent thermal balance profile and keeping things realistic. A small margin of difference lower in tf power isn’t gong to make a huge difference to price of components.

11TF on PS5's GPU, more or less.

* memory wise, both systems are on par. 16gb ddr6. Let go of the HBM2 dream, it was never on the cards to begin with. What I can’t ascertain however, is if either are using a split memory pool for OS level tasks. I haven’t had a single straight answer on that one, other than “its complicated, but yes, and no”. That leads me to believe that possibly something else is going on here. If the PS5 has a separate look of let’s say 4gb DDR4 then they can use the full 16gb for games opposed to less for the SX. But what’s been alluded to for me is a bit strange, almost like you don’t have to worry about it as much. Which I can’t understand at all? Any ideas?

Sounds like at least Sony is using the extra memory pool like they did with the PS4 perhaps connected to through a southbridge.

cooling wise I’ll mention again that SX is silent, even in its older dev kits. But PS5, everything I’ve heard has said quiet, much quieter than ps4, but they had issues with thermals being too high still. Seems to be an ongoing thing as this has been an ongoing issue. So i expect both to be quiet, sx slightly quieter, but much better than the jet engines of today. That also lines up with a higher boom price for cooling on PS5, because maybe they are at a good sound level, but not at a good thermal level, so are pushing that further.

Both systems are quiet.

SSD tech, I’ve covered so many times it makes my eyes bleed. Sony are targeting about 5.5-5.8gb/sec. SX are “within 1gb/sec of this, maybe lower if they hit their target”. Essentially, the controller quality and speed difference are in favour for PS5, but as with other components it won’t actually matter for 99% of shit you see or do, and even first parties will have a hard time showing that. Don’t expect this massive 2x faster rubbish that some people are peddling.

20-25% difference in sustained storage speed, 5.5GB/s PS5 vs 4.5GB/s SeriesX. Not sure if this will be noticeable in games, unless e.g. Sony is also using a large RAM cache (rumoured 8GB DDR4?).

nobody knows anything to do with price. Nobody. Anybody that comes along and starts blabbering about price like a set in stone thing is full of it.

Similar to what has been suggested before, no one knows price yet, maybe because companies are still finalizing their high volume component deals.
Or maybe because they're both waiting on each other to decide their own price.





EDIT: on the github Gospel -

Man, the 9tf dream is years old. Sony ditched that a long time ago. That was their original plan, to release a 9tf machine sometime in 2019. But those plans changed in 2018, so they could release a faster unit in 2020. They have had a while to work on things, it’s not a last minute change. People need to let go of the 9tf stuff, it’s pure fantasy.

 

[Scott_Arm]

They've been working on compute-based acceleration. They haven't had RTRT in hardware despite knowing DXR was coming.

nVidia - bam! - RTX, slammed on the table, look at that!
AMD - oh, okay, we're doing hardware acceleration for raytracing now? Is that a thing? I thought we were just doing compute-based acceleration.

Or at least, that's how it looks given AMD's public front on the RTRT discussion and what they've considered worth releasing. But then maybe they been at it just as long as nVidia and just decided the quality of RTRT wasn't worth including until they had faster GPUs?

Note : I'm just kinda arguing for argument's sake here.

Yah, I think it's kind of naive to think that just because their hardware is coming out later than Nvidia's that they haven't been working on it for a long time. I would not be surprised if both AMD and Nvidia have had various prototypes for some form of hardware accelerated ray-tracing over the years.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Who is glow at resetera?

Sounds like the github gospel's astroturfers' wet dream will be falling apart pretty quickly.

 

[mpg1]

For the sake of some people's mental health I hope Sony does hurry up and release PS5 specs so we can just get it over with...

 

[Scott_Arm]

For the sake of some people's mental health I hope Sony does hurry up and release PS5 specs so we can just get it over with...

We need to quickly move on to arguing over specs and pixel counting for the next six years.

 

[McHuj]

Who is glow at resetera?

Sounds like the github gospel's astroturfers' wet dream will be falling apart pretty quickly.

github gospels astroturfers??? haha. I think you are too emotionally invested in this.

 

[RDGoodla]

He's an indie dev on Gaf who has contacts with other devs that have near final devkits including one first party dev. He's been brought up here in the last few pages too.

I read a theory from a user absolute********* that PS5 is "narrow and fast" so even it is 9TF the actual performance wouldn't be as large as 9.2 vs.12 because higher frequency makes all GPU parts faster.

Based on the assumption if PS5 is 11.2TF with higher frequency than XSX what kind of performance gap will we see?

 

[MrFox]

In isolation, a raw TF number is not exactly helpful to figure out the market positionning of each competitor.

We know something like 40% about one console and 25% about the other.

We don't even know the price, and probably won't until close to launch.

We don't have the memory size nor speed, the storage size or speed, the cpu clock, the RT specs are fuzzy, the storage accelleration topology remains mysterious. Just a few hints, leaks, and guesses.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

github gospels astroturfers??? haha. I think you are too emotionally invested in this.

I'm only invested in preventing this shit from happening here in the future.

 

[AlNom]

Spell it out to us so we know what you're trying to prevent by bringing it here?

You have a problem with the donation bets?

 

[iroboto]

I'm going to take another crack at your own quotes if you don't mind Tot. Not that I don't agree with what's written... but it's hard for me not to point this out.

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
* as of very recently SX still had the cpu power crown in an older dev kit (which still wasn’t final), which matches these specs. Sony have a more final dev kit out that matches their target specs that is clocked slightly lower. The actual difference in cpu clock speed isn’t as high as you may think, but still in favour of SX (like a couple hundres MHz) Cpu clocks can be changed slightly, if you have enough room for it, but don’t expect miracles. I don’t have a value, a hard figure, sorry.

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
GPU power grunt is much much the same as the above, with SX taking a lead over PS5, again based on target specs and finality of dev kits. This can also be changed if you have the room for it, even now, but again talking slight, slight clock increases. PS5 is already having higher temp thermals, so I doubt they can do much (see below). I also don’t have a concrete figure here

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
terra flop wise, it’s hard to get a clear picture of. I’m actually going to say what I was told earlier... “Notice MS keep saying it’s 12tf of power, but not once have they said 12.0tf?” So it’s possible SX may be higher than a bang on 12tf, such as 12.2. No idea. But target specs for PS5 have been high 10tf to low 11tf for a while, including their more final dev kit. It’s worth noting that if PS5 release let’s say a 11.2tf PS5 and ms release a 12tf SX, the price of the systems will be essentially on par, but the performance will also be so damn close you wouldn’t really notice unless pointed out. I don’t know why people are posting above 13tf, 13.8? Haha, ok. Erm, look, the 12 dream was very hard to reach at a decent price, a decent thermal balance profile and keeping things realistic. A small margin of difference lower in tf power isn’t gong to make a huge difference to price of components.

So he doesn't even know the target figure. There was only ever 1 target figure announced for Scarlett in the leaks and rumours. That number was 12. And supported by Brad, Richard, and Jez.

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
* memory wise, both systems are on par. 16gb ddr6. Let go of the HBM2 dream, it was never on the cards to begin with. What I can’t ascertain however, is if either are using a split memory pool for OS level tasks. I haven’t had a single straight answer on that one, other than “its complicated, but yes, and no”. That leads me to believe that possibly something else is going on here. If the PS5 has a separate look of let’s say 4gb DDR4 then they can use the full 16gb for games opposed to less for the SX. But what’s been alluded to for me is a bit strange, almost like you don’t have to worry about it as much. Which I can’t understand at all? Any ideas?

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
cooling wise I’ll mention again that SX is silent, even in its older dev kits. But PS5, everything I’ve heard has said quiet, much quieter than ps4, but they had issues with thermals being too high still. Seems to be an ongoing thing as this has been an ongoing issue. So i expect both to be quiet, sx slightly quieter, but much better than the jet engines of today. That also lines up with a higher boom price for cooling on PS5, because maybe they are at a good sound level, but not at a good thermal level, so are pushing that further.

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
SSD tech, I’ve covered so many times it makes my eyes bleed. Sony are targeting about 5.5-5.8gb/sec. SX are “within 1gb/sec of this, maybe lower if they hit their target”. Essentially, the controller quality and speed difference are in favour for PS5, but as with other components it won’t actually matter for 99% of shit you see or do, and even first parties will have a hard time showing that. Don’t expect this massive 2x faster rubbish that some people are peddling.

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
nobody knows anything to do with price. Nobody. Anybody that comes along and starts blabbering about price like a set in stone thing is full of it.

I believe him. I feel like its the only concrete piece of data he's provided yet

o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
Man, the 9tf dream is years old. Sony ditched that a long time ago. That was their original plan, to release a 9tf machine sometime in 2019. But those plans changed in 2018, so they could release a faster unit in 2020. They have had a while to work on things, it’s not a last minute change. People need to let go of the 9tf stuff, it’s pure fantasy.

So I've highlighted all the words that stuck out to me. And the words that speak to me is that he doesn't know anything at all.
Odium shouldn't lead with everything above saying PS5 is going to be X, Y, Z and the 9TF dream is dead and done with and end with _so they could release_
He just negated everything he wrote above. Because everything he wrote above was stringing you along for a non 9.2 TF ride but as I've highlighted, he has NO concrete values for anything he's talked about.

This is where I put little stock into his testimony here: failure of any real consistency. Usage of information we are already well aware of.
And I don't think he really knows, he knows some stuff maybe, perhaps, but as I see it:
at best he's an employee that's not allowed into the NDA room. At worst he's in the industry and has friends that are outside the NDA room.

People make fun of Windows Central and Jez, but he publishes his stuff on his site and it turns out true much later on. Not after the fact. He doesn't even go into the rumor mill, he only publishes what his leakers provide to him.
Brad Sams is pretty similar, they get shit wrong; but they've gotten way more stuff right than wrong.

I'm not going to tell you that PS5 isn't within spitting distance of XSX. I still think it is. But I wouldn't use this testimony as a crutch against Github leaks. It's really weak data.

This is once again why I don't like Forum leaks. If you want real leaks, go to a journalist that is willing to verify and corroborate.