Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[goonergaz]

By that logic, the last generation of consoles should have costed more than the 6th generation. It didn't. Console price is decided by more than production cost, but also taking into account competition within the same generation. Plus they use a new smaller node now, which probably gives them more dies than the PS4Pro APU had.

I'm unsure what you're getting at?
PS3 cost more than PS2? X360 cost more than OXB (unless you really want to suggest buying the core was a good idea?).

This generation we've seen prices drop slower than ever before and talk of next gen consoles being more expensive than last gen...so why would Lockheart go against this?

 

[iroboto]

I think there are too many rumours about it for it not to exist/or at least have been in development at some point. Still think it was/is primarily meant for Xcloud.

I agree with that.

Well if we lock some variables down:
This chip showed up late and we don't have a Lockhart devkit so the biggest question is whether or not it will launch with XSX.
If we assume that it doesn't then the following is a big challenge:

You're a developer. You are not given any new hardware to work with, you only have XSX. You develop the whole game around XSX. (Many 3Ps will do this).
Launch is fine, things are great. After launch suddenly there is this weaker peice of hardware. Will your game work? No. Because you never developed a game around the lower specc'd hardware.
How will MS recover from such weird messaging.

tldr; If Lockhart is not launching with XSX, it's not going to be released as a console.

 

[Picao84]

I'm unsure what you're getting at?
PS3 cost more than PS2? X360 cost more than OXB (unless you really want to suggest buying the core was a good idea?).

This generation we've seen prices drop slower than ever before and talk of next gen consoles being more expensive than last gen...so why would Lockheart go against this?

Sorry I meant the current generation, not the last. PS4 was much cheaper than PS3. Xbox One was 100 more expensive than X360 but it had Kinect bundled. After they launched a SKU without Kinect the price was essentially the same as the X360 at launch. Yes, it's true that until then prices were increasing, but that was reflecting the growth of the gaming market, from something that was "for kids", to an industry that challenges cinema and music. With more demand, prices increase. That's not the situation now, gaming is pretty much a mature market and does not experience the double digit growth anymore, so prices have stabilized.

Lockhart would go against this precisely because the initial idea rumoured would be for it to be a budget level console. They still have Anaconda.

 

[KirkSi]

That's true if you factor in an asbolute need to transition your entire population over to the new console.
I don't think that's MS strategy here, and we see that with the 'no exclusive 1P' titles until 2021. That doesn't mean they won't take advantage of the hardware, but they aren't forcing their users to upgrade immediately.

That buys time for prices to come down. People who want more power will upgrade naturally with trade in deals.

What are you thinking XSX will be priced at then? (assuming the 56CU, 12TF github data is true). Even if they matched Sony at £399 you wouldn't transition your entire population over. £399 is around the regular 'new generation console at launch' price and only a percentage of the population will transfer over, the early adopters. If the XSX price is £499 or higher then that'll drive off another percentage of the early adopters as well. If your only market at launch is the 'premium' crowd you've seriously limited your market.

It's been mentioned in the 2020 sales thread as to why MS didn't catch up in terms of sales when they got the power crown back with the X1X. Reason was because they'd taken a hammering for 4 years and there was a mindset out there by then. Playstation had the momentum, if you were a kid then chances are your friends played on PS4 so you'd buy a PS4. Success breads success. By the time the X1X launched it was too late to turn the tide. I hope they've learned the lesson that if they want to do better they need good sales from the start. If they launch a 'niche' premium product at the start then it won't get good support from third party and Sony will romp away with it again by a large margin.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I have doubts that Lockhart exists outside some discussion items; and even then, I don't necessarily believe it needs to be a console. There are other devices that MS has in its lineup that may need its power output with a lower TDP signature.

What's the most TFs that could fit into a Surface Pro type device? The AMD SOC might be a great candidate for the SP line, saving money from going Intel, and MS could add Xbox into it as a feature. I definitely like the idea of a tablet that can play XB games with TV out for Switch-like 'dockability' and that feature would effectively come 'free' with MS commissioning an AMD SOC to drive their tablet line.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If they launch a 'niche' premium product at the start then it won't get good support from third party and Sony will romp away with it again by a large margin.

Although if MS's end-game isn't to win the console space, but to win 'gaming', they may not care. There are other ways to play this. Maybe Lockhart is a virtual spec so ~4 TF PCs can be trusted to run XBSX titles and MS will announce a new Windows initiative to support the 'low end'?

 

[KirkSi]

I agree with that.

Well if we lock some variables down:
This chip showed up late and we don't have a Lockhart devkit so the biggest question is whether or not it will launch with XSX.
If we assume that it doesn't then the following is a big challenge:

You're a developer. You are not given any new hardware to work with, you only have XSX. You develop the whole game around XSX. (Many 3Ps will do this).
Launch is fine, things are great. After launch suddenly there is this weaker peice of hardware. Will your game work? No. Because you never developed a game around the lower specc'd hardware.
How will MS recover from such weird messaging.

tldr; If Lockhart is not launching with XSX, it's not going to be released as a console.

If I remember correctly though, the X1X devkit could also be stepped down to be an X1S devkit as well couldn't it? Could the latest lot of XSX devkits also work as a Lockhart devkit? I know there's no data out there to suggest this is true, but then we've had pretty much no leaks about actual next gen Xbox devkits at all (not sure if the 'pube' picture of the XSX back ports and vents was a devkit or early production model).

 

[goonergaz]

Sorry I meant the current generation, not the last. PS4 was much cheaper than PS3. Xbox One was 100 more expensive than X360 but it had Kinect bundled. After they launched a SKU without Kinect the price was essentially the same as the X360 at launch. Yes, it's true that until then prices were increasing, but that was reflecting the growth of the gaming market, from something that was "for kids", to an industry that challenges cinema and music. With more demand, prices increase. That's not the situation now, gaming is pretty much a mature market and does not experience the double digit growth anymore, so prices have stabilized.

Lockhart would go against this precisely because the initial idea rumoured would be for it to be a budget level console. They still have Anaconda.

PS3 was an outliner though, and as you said XBO had Kinect...I still don't quite understand how the GPU being gimped saves you over $200 and potentially as much as $300 off the RRP...

 

[iroboto]

What's the most TFs that could fit into a Surface Pro type device?

The earlier talked about numbers at "4" was sort of the first indication to me of being something else. MS may have been feeling out what was possible with it; but I don't necessarily think that means they were going in on a new console with it.

The lack of BC testing during regression testing was also suspect.

 

[mpg1]

I agree with that.

Well if we lock some variables down:
This chip showed up late and we don't have a Lockhart devkit so the biggest question is whether or not it will launch with XSX.
If we assume that it doesn't then the following is a big challenge:

You're a developer. You are not given any new hardware to work with, you only have XSX. You develop the whole game around XSX. (Many 3Ps will do this).
Launch is fine, things are great. After launch suddenly there is this weaker peice of hardware. Will your game work? No. Because you never developed a game around the lower specc'd hardware.
How will MS recover from such weird messaging.

tldr; If Lockhart is not launching with XSX, it's not going to be released as a console.

Crazy theory but: what if Lockhart just autoscales XSX games and developers don't have to target it.

 

[Picao84]

What are you thinking XSX will be priced at then? (assuming the 56CU, 12TF github data is true). Even if they matched Sony at £399 you wouldn't transition your entire population over. £399 is around the regular 'new generation console at launch' price and only a percentage of the population will transfer over, the early adopters. If the XSX price is £499 or higher then that'll drive off another percentage of the early adopters as well. If your only market at launch is the 'premium' crowd you've seriously limited your market.

It's been mentioned in the 2020 sales thread as to why MS didn't catch up in terms of sales when they got the power crown back with the X1X. Reason was because they'd taken a hammering for 4 years and there was a mindset out there by then. Playstation had the momentum, if you were a kid then chances are your friends played on PS4 so you'd buy a PS4. Success breads success. By the time the X1X launched it was too late to turn the tide. I hope they've learned the lesson that if they want to do better they need good sales from the start. If they launch a 'niche' premium product at the start then it won't get good support from third party and Sony will romp away with it again by a large margin.

1) iroboto whole premise is that transition as fast as possible is NOT Microsoft's strategy. Why are you challenging on something that is 100% opposite to what he said? Actually try to read what people say outside of what you think should be done.

2) Regarding the second paragraph, that's the whole point about having a two tier approach. A budget solution could help sales by being cheaper than PS5, while keeping the performance crown with Anaconda. What I speculated with this new (to us) 7TFlop is that Microsoft realized that 4TFlop would not be enough to make the strategy work.

 

[iroboto]

If I remember correctly though, the X1X devkit could also be stepped down to be an X1S devkit as well couldn't it? Could the latest lot of XSX devkits also work as a Lockhart devkit? I know there's no data out there to suggest this is true, but then we've had pretty much no leaks about actual next gen Xbox devkits at all (not sure if the 'pube' picture of the XSX back ports and vents was a devkit or early production model).

That's a fair statement; we would have gotten wind of that by now. Its the type of shit that would outrage developers; it would be a much bigger discussion bit than PS5 being around 9.2 TF.
Certainly one hell of a secret to keep for so long.

Even if it is released at a 7TF chip; I still don't believe that is a console.

 

[KirkSi]

Although if MS's end-game isn't to win the console space, but to win 'gaming', they may not care. There are other ways to play this. Maybe Lockhart is a virtual spec so ~4 TF PCs can be trusted to run XBSX titles and MS will announce a new Windows initiative to support the 'low end'?

I'm quite sure in the long run their aim is to win 'gaming' but I think they're a bit early in their transition to Xbox being a service that can be accessed anywhere to turn their console market into a premium only device. Consoles are still a big part of Xbox, it's changing for sure but I'm not sure we're there yet.

I do like the idea of a portable surface Pro with full compatibility with XSX games though. If Lockhart isn't that then it needs to be a thing. I love the idea of Xcloud on the move, but I have an iPhone and iPad Pro so until they get their iOS version up and running I can't use it!

 

[Picao84]

PS3 was an outliner though, and as you said XBO had Kinect...I still don't quite understand how the GPU being gimped saves you over $200 and potentially as much as $300 off the RRP...

Because the GPU occupies the most space on an APU? CPU area is tiny in comparison. This APU (4TFlops) in 7nm could probably be around 125 - 150 mm2 if not less. Plus it would not only be only the APU, less GPU power requires less memory as well, it could have only 8GB for example in a narrower bus. The whole BOM would be smaller. Again this is for the original 4TF Lockhart.

 

[goonergaz]

Because the GPU occupies the most space on an APU? CPU area is tiny in comparison. This APU (4TFlops) in 7nm could probably be around 125 - 150 mm2 if not less. Plus it would not only be only the APU, less GPU power requires less memory as well, it could have only 8GB for example in a narrower bus. The whole BOM would be smaller. Again this is for the original 4TF Lockhart.

PS4 APU cost around $150 tops from memory - hence my comment why you're not making a $200 saving.

Of course I could be wrong.

 

[KirkSi]

That's a fair statement; we would have gotten wind of that by now. Its the type of shit that would outrage developers; it would be a much bigger discussion bit than PS5 being around 9.2 TF.
Certainly one hell of a secret to keep for so long.

Even if it is released at a 7TF chip; I still don't believe that is a console.

If you're right then I wonder what it is then? If @Shifty Geezer is right and it's something akin to a surface Pro, could they be going down a Switch-type route with a portable device that could be docked to a TV and still be a pretty good gaming experience? Unlike the Switch it wouldn't be a gaming only device though, it'd have full surface functionality, so a portable PC and Xbox combined.

I thought the original reason the rumour of a Lockhart went away was because Devs didn't like the idea of having to optimise for multiple console SKUs so I was surprised when the rumour came back round again. Xbox do seem to have clamped down on the leaks though this time. I've not seen a sniff of a rumour from developers about Xbox devkits. We'd normally have a couple of badly taken photographs of them on a desk as we do for the PS5 'V' devkit by now wouldn't we?

 

[iroboto]

What are you thinking XSX will be priced at then? (assuming the 56CU, 12TF github data is true). Even if they matched Sony at £399 you wouldn't transition your entire population over. £399 is around the regular 'new generation console at launch' price and only a percentage of the population will transfer over, the early adopters. If the XSX price is £499 or higher then that'll drive off another percentage of the early adopters as well. If your only market at launch is the 'premium' crowd you've seriously limited your market.

It's been mentioned in the 2020 sales thread as to why MS didn't catch up in terms of sales when they got the power crown back with the X1X. Reason was because they'd taken a hammering for 4 years and there was a mindset out there by then. Playstation had the momentum, if you were a kid then chances are your friends played on PS4 so you'd buy a PS4. Success breads success. By the time the X1X launched it was too late to turn the tide. I hope they've learned the lesson that if they want to do better they need good sales from the start. If they launch a 'niche' premium product at the start then it won't get good support from third party and Sony will romp away with it again by a large margin.

I think MS shouldn't go higher than $499 USD. It would be a premium cost like X1X.

As for catching up, they were never going to catch up. What MS bought with X1X aside from building back their goodwill with their own customers are
a) fully fleshing out their BC technology (with upgrades)
b) fully understanding how to do boost mode and AF upgrades
c) understanding up front how to test/develop and cool a device effectively
d) understand the sales data between their lower priced console and their higher priced console
e) know consumer feedback on how they feel with the new X1X.

So you've got this halo/premium product out now. It's expensive. So how do you make it cheaper for buyers to buy into the ecosystem
a) fully BC back 3 generations with X1X upgrades to boot (all saves on cloud - no transfers necessary)
b) controllers and accessories fully back compatible
c) game pass to give players instant libraries with fresh new exclusives titles with minimal cost.

The biggest challenge with new console launches, is the setup cost to get a new controller and buy some games to use your device with.
With this new setup, the total cost to get into the ecosystem is significantly lowered. So it may work out well with budget minded people here.

If you suspect that PS5 is $399, well add a controller and 1 game and you're north of $499.
With XSX at $499 and say 1 free month of game pass (15 days, is what they gave us for X1X) you're at $499 + 100 games and new exclusives for a small while. Controllers transfer. It's not a terrible deal.
As long as people feel justified in their purchase they will be happy about it.

 

[Picao84]

PS4 APU cost around $150 tops from memory - hence my comment why you're not making a $200 saving.

Of course I could be wrong.

The PS4 APU was not made using 7nm for once and from that I remember has a die size of around 300mm2, double of what I was estimating for this Lockhart (taking into account Anaconda is 380-400 mm2).

Edit - PS4 APU was done in ancient by now node, there were almost 4 jumps - 16 to 14 to 12 to 10 to 7. This is greatly simplifying it, but it is a very large jump nonetheless. The PS4 APU die size was 325 mm2. What I'm estimating would be 40% of the size. With 40% of the size you not only increase yields but also have more dies per wafer, hence potentially much lower cost.

https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/playstation-4-pro-gpu.c2876

 

[goonergaz]

I think MS shouldn't go higher than $499 USD. It would be a premium cost like X1X.

As for catching up, they were never going to catch up. What MS bought with X1X aside from building back their goodwill with their own customers are
a) fully fleshing out their BC technology (with upgrades)
b) fully understanding how to do boost mode and AF upgrades
c) understanding up front how to test/develop and cool a device effectively
d) understand the sales data between their lower priced console and their higher priced console
e) know consumer feedback on how they feel with the new X1X.

So you've got this halo/premium product out now. It's expensive. So how do you make it cheaper for buyers to buy into the ecosystem
a) fully BC back 3 generations with X1X upgrades to boot (all saves on cloud - no transfers necessary)
b) controllers and accessories fully back compatible
c) game pass to give players instant libraries with fresh new exclusives titles with minimal cost.

The biggest challenge with new console launches, is the setup cost to get a new controller and buy some games to use your device with.
With this new setup, the total cost to get into the ecosystem is significantly lowered. So it may work out well with budget minded people here.

If you suspect that PS5 is $399, well add a controller and 1 game and you're north of $499.
With XSX at $499 and say 1 free month of game pass (15 days, is what they gave us for X1X) you're at $499 + 100 games and new exclusives for a small while. Controllers transfer. It's not a terrible deal.
As long as people feel justified in their purchase they will be happy about it.

PS5 controllers will transfer and PSNow says hi.

The PS4 APU was not made using 7nm for once and from that I remember has a die size of around 300mm2, double of what I was estimating for this Lockhart (taking into account Anaconda is 380-400 mm2).

You're missing my point. The PS4 GPU only cost $150 - how are you going to save $200 from a part that costs $150!? I'm genuinely curious how they could launch this console at $200.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Because the GPU occupies the most space on an APU?

You're not going to save even $100 on the BOM with a 12 TF SOC and 4TF variant. You'd have to reduce a lot of the console - RAM, storage, etc - to get a machine $200 cheaper than the rumoured XBSX specs.