Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]
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There is a whole year before MS or Sony release their machines. While I don't expect the 360 all over again (most powerful and advanced GPU at the time of it's release), MS and Sony know that wowing customers beyond an increase in resolution and some basic RT is going to take some serious muscle. However, they are not going to put themselves in a crazy loss-leader BOM bind like they did in the 7th generation. It's likely going to be a balanced approach of power and affordability like the original PS4, except, probably closer to the state of the art, as opposed to 1/3 the capability of the best GPU available at it's release like the R9 290X was to the PS4 in Fall '13. And the Xbone.....Jesus.....
Please let them
It's the most and only interesting season of a next gen console launch!
U must haven’t been here long. The best time is when we get real specs. The discussions tended to be more grounded in reality even though we still get misterXmedia (?) like assertions.
But to me at least, discussions based on reality is more interesting than discussions based on imaginary hardware created out of thin air from rumors which mostly are baseless anyways.
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I mostly agree with you but let’s not forget that both MS and Sony have digital stores that do a hefty amount of business where the margins per game sale is larger. Now they get a cut of microtransactions, which are more prevalent then in the past. Also, u now have to consider services like Game Pass and premium accessories like the Elite controller.
In previous gens, these revenue sources were unavailable or immaterial but now they may be significant enough to change the level of losses Sony or MS are willing to incur at the beginning of a gen.
anexanhume
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Y’all were saying about thermal capability?
Thread for Xbox Series X: https://forum.beyond3d.com/threads/xbox-series-x-release-holiday-2020.61502/
Tkumpathenurpahl
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A 5700XT is only 251mm2. Paired with an 8 core Zen 2, we can expect a similar die size to the launch PS4: ~330mm2.
7nm
If we assume a 40CU (44CU's with 4 disabled) part tuned in line with undervolted 5700XT's, we can expect it to consistently reach 1950mhz:
40*64*2*1.95 = 10.98TF RDNA 1
If memory serves, that can result in a wattage along the lines of 160W. I'll double check that shortly, unless someone here happens to have that information to hand. Well within the realm of console power consumption. Relatively high - especially when you factor in other components - but nothing too bonkers.
7nm+
A 20% increase in density would mean 48CU's (52CU's with 4 disabled). Then there's the matter of picking between 10% greater performance, or 15% greater power efficiency. I assume power efficiency is desirable for a console. So, I'll just assume the same 1950mhz clockspeed:
48*64*2*1.95 = 11.98TF RDNA 1 / 1.5 / 2
Going off of my previous ~160W figure (which I'll double-check!) this would result in:
(160*1.2)*0.85 = 157.44W
There's the possibility of decent architectural improvements too. For an example, I'll just assume a 10% architectural improvement: 11 or 12 TF RDNA 1.5 / 2 GPU's may respectively perform like the equivalent of 12 or 13 TF RDNA 1 parts.
Putting that all in perspective:
7nm
If we assume a 40CU (44CU's with 4 disabled) part tuned in line with undervolted 5700XT's, we can expect it to consistently reach 1950mhz:
40*64*2*1.95 = 10.98TF RDNA 1
If memory serves, that can result in a wattage along the lines of 160W. I'll double check that shortly, unless someone here happens to have that information to hand. Well within the realm of console power consumption. Relatively high - especially when you factor in other components - but nothing too bonkers.
7nm+
A 20% increase in density would mean 48CU's (52CU's with 4 disabled). Then there's the matter of picking between 10% greater performance, or 15% greater power efficiency. I assume power efficiency is desirable for a console. So, I'll just assume the same 1950mhz clockspeed:
48*64*2*1.95 = 11.98TF RDNA 1 / 1.5 / 2
Going off of my previous ~160W figure (which I'll double-check!) this would result in:
(160*1.2)*0.85 = 157.44W
There's the possibility of decent architectural improvements too. For an example, I'll just assume a 10% architectural improvement: 11 or 12 TF RDNA 1.5 / 2 GPU's may respectively perform like the equivalent of 12 or 13 TF RDNA 1 parts.
Putting that all in perspective:
- TF for TF, Navi performs between 1.4 and 1.6 times as well as GCN.
- The worst case would result in a next-gen console GPU which performs like the equivalent of a (10.98*1.4 = ) 15.37 TF GCN GPU.
- The best case would result in a next-gen console GPU which performs like the equivalent of a ((11.98*1.6)*1.1 = ) 21.08 TF GCN GPU.
Question is whether thermals or aesthetics were the factor there........
From the GameSpot article and interview with Spencer it sure seems like it would have a lot of thermal cooling capacity. Any guess-timates on what it could handle?
To Spencer's point, the Series X design makes sense from an engineering standpoint. In an effort to make the console "disappear" into your entertainment center, Microsoft designed it to be as quiet as possible: with a single, large fan pushing high volumes of air out of the top. Spencer and Ronald confidently told me that the Series X systems in their homes are no louder than Xbox One X, which is to say, not noticeably audible when sitting couch-distance away from your TV. "There's always this tension between design and the kind of acoustics and cooling and function of the console," Spencer explained, "and we were not going to compromise on function. I'm just incredibly impressed with the design that they came back with."
anexanhume
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Betanumerical
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looks amazing but it’s worth to keep in mind it’s only in engine and not in game.
I tell you why they can't say 7nm+ for PS5 because 7nm+ is TSMC's process.
Ambiguity at AMD is a Sony exclusive!
If AMD say 7nm+ that means they announce before SONY that PS5 is using TSMC process rather than Samsung.
And
xbox is using RDNA2 which is in 7nm+.
anexanhume
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And 12TF is higher than 2080 super boost clock and 2080 Ti base clock.
Samsung has 7nm euv too...
Frenetic Pony
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Screw it, estimated PS5 specs based on PS4 production costs transferred to today's components and costs.
Production teardown estimate: https://www.engadget.com/2013/11/19/ps4-costs-381-to-make-according-to-hardware-teardown/
SOC Budget: Like before, the whole thing will be an integrated SOC, though probably built on a substrate or something? Either way the PS4 mm^2 budget was 350. A 5700xt clocks in at 251, however each CPU chiplet is only 4 cores and takes up about 75mm^2, not to mention the IO chiplet and other costs, though that should be comparatively cheap. Still, with inflation 350mm squared goes from $100 to $112 about. But with more mm^2 that'll be $130 roughly for the SOC, even assuming mm^2 stays the same from Sony's Pov.
RAM: Here's a big question. GDDR5 looks to be at an inflation adjusted cost of nigh a hundred today. Transferring that to GDDR6 could give an insane 32gigs of ram today, above the rumored 24gigs in the dev kit. So 24gigs not just in the dev kit but shipping is easily doable, though it wouldn't match up with the 256bit bus width.
The big new cost item is the SSD. An EVO 970 looks to be 17c a gig retail, but margins are so razor thin on SSD manufacturing today that companies are actively dropping out, no big volume discounts here. Even with an ok discount 15c a gig and a terabyte next gen Samsung drive, for whatever replaces the 970, takes up $150.
The rest: Cost a little less than two hundred back when, so should cost a bit less than $200 today if we assume the HDD cost $20 back then.
That'd work out to an almost $600 manufacturing cost oop. So I dunno where they'd cut costs. Though the new rx 5500 has more work per bandwidth than the Rx 5700. Could end up with 36Cus, 192bit, and 24 gig. With upcoming 16 gigabyte per second GDDR6 bandwidth could be fine, and you'd cut maybe $45 there, get it much closer to the sub $500 cost, charge $500 Sony will probably go for (edit- or the move to 7nm+ will be enough for 40 with associated die space). Cut it to a cheaper SSD type and that's another $50 gone, and you'd have it less than $500.
Which is all to say if the new.. how the fuck do you abbreviate series X Microsoft you bastards! XSX? It'll do for now. Anyway, for $600 the PS5/XSX could have 48cus and a truly fast NVME drive with 32gigs of ram, assuming TSMC's 7nm+ fits that cost reduction in. Can't see it costing less or having better specs though.
Yeah it's a copy of the new Mac Pro design, single large fan flow through the case, even has a similar grating. By the Mac Pro reviews I've seen it is quiet as hell and does work with a good amount of hardware.
Production teardown estimate: https://www.engadget.com/2013/11/19/ps4-costs-381-to-make-according-to-hardware-teardown/
SOC Budget: Like before, the whole thing will be an integrated SOC, though probably built on a substrate or something? Either way the PS4 mm^2 budget was 350. A 5700xt clocks in at 251, however each CPU chiplet is only 4 cores and takes up about 75mm^2, not to mention the IO chiplet and other costs, though that should be comparatively cheap. Still, with inflation 350mm squared goes from $100 to $112 about. But with more mm^2 that'll be $130 roughly for the SOC, even assuming mm^2 stays the same from Sony's Pov.
RAM: Here's a big question. GDDR5 looks to be at an inflation adjusted cost of nigh a hundred today. Transferring that to GDDR6 could give an insane 32gigs of ram today, above the rumored 24gigs in the dev kit. So 24gigs not just in the dev kit but shipping is easily doable, though it wouldn't match up with the 256bit bus width.
The big new cost item is the SSD. An EVO 970 looks to be 17c a gig retail, but margins are so razor thin on SSD manufacturing today that companies are actively dropping out, no big volume discounts here. Even with an ok discount 15c a gig and a terabyte next gen Samsung drive, for whatever replaces the 970, takes up $150.
The rest: Cost a little less than two hundred back when, so should cost a bit less than $200 today if we assume the HDD cost $20 back then.
That'd work out to an almost $600 manufacturing cost oop. So I dunno where they'd cut costs. Though the new rx 5500 has more work per bandwidth than the Rx 5700. Could end up with 36Cus, 192bit, and 24 gig. With upcoming 16 gigabyte per second GDDR6 bandwidth could be fine, and you'd cut maybe $45 there, get it much closer to the sub $500 cost, charge $500 Sony will probably go for (edit- or the move to 7nm+ will be enough for 40 with associated die space). Cut it to a cheaper SSD type and that's another $50 gone, and you'd have it less than $500.
Which is all to say if the new.. how the fuck do you abbreviate series X Microsoft you bastards! XSX? It'll do for now. Anyway, for $600 the PS5/XSX could have 48cus and a truly fast NVME drive with 32gigs of ram, assuming TSMC's 7nm+ fits that cost reduction in. Can't see it costing less or having better specs though.
Yeah it's a copy of the new Mac Pro design, single large fan flow through the case, even has a similar grating. By the Mac Pro reviews I've seen it is quiet as hell and does work with a good amount of hardware.
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