Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Prophecy2k]

What the current prevalent opinion on what node next-gen will use? Standard 7nm or one of the EXTREME ULTRA VIOLENT lithography enhanced nodes?

Crikey! I knew the foundries were getting aggressive, but I think this is perhaps a step too far.

The general design, maybe. But that's a Devkit. It doesn't matter if it's expensive and consumes 250W or more (and last time I checked, developers have to pay their own devkits). The fact that it could be clocked at 2ghz doesn't mean PS5 will.

But you won't see more than 200W on the retail PS5. Not happening. Cooling would be too expensive, too hot, too loud, box would be too big so more expensive (have you seen the size of that dev-kit ?); things would get ugly fast. See @Silent_Buddha previous post.

PS3s at 90nm could pull > 200W at the wall.

Some Xbox1Xs do, and do so in a box smaller than a PS4 and without any noise issues at all (whisper quiet™ anyone?).

I'm not sure this 200W limit is anything but an artificial one we're placing on our speculation.

 

[anexanhume]

Crikey! I knew the foundries were getting aggressive, but I think this is perhaps a step too far.



PS3s at 90nm could pull > 200W at the wall.

Some Xbox1Xs do, and do so in a box smaller than a PS4 and without any noise issues at all (whisper quiet™ anyone?).

I'm not sure this 200W limit is anything but an artificial one we're placing on our speculation.

I think it is artificial. The limit was a loose corollary to die size, but with power density increasing, it’s not a hard and fast limit.

 

[MrFox]

It's a cost issue, not whether it's possible.

 

[Shortbread]

It's a cost issue, not whether it's possible.

Sure. $499 launch console on $600 dollars worth of hardware. A good cooling solution isn't going to run hundreds of dollars.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Sure. $499 launch console on $600 dollars worth of hardware. A good cooling solution isn't going to run hundreds of dollars.

But everything adds up.

People basically want a more expensive SOC than the current generation (launch SOC).

People basically want more expensive memory than the current generation (more of it and faster).

The next gen. consoles are going to have significantly more expensive storage subsystems.

A complex and expensive cooling solution just adds to the mountain of costs. Not to mention more robust VRMs, PSU, etc. all to support the increased power delivery demands.

With what little has been revealed, if we then add in everything people want, it's going to be much more than 600 USD worth of hardware.

Regards,
SB

 

[BRiT]

Sure. $499 launch console on $600 dollars worth of hardware. A good cooling solution isn't going to run hundreds of dollars.

Depends who makes the cooling solution, does it have the Monster or Apple logo on it?

 

[Shortbread]

With what little has been revealed, if we then add in everything people want, it's going to be much more than 600 USD worth of hardware.

I built an HTPC far more expensive than the next-generation consoles will ever cost, all within a footprint of the original Xbox One casing size. Two case fans and one CPU cooler cost about $65 dollars total. Running something like Crysis 3 or GTA 5, fan noises no louder than PS4 noise levels (actually better).

Point being, a good case layout and proper fan setup should be less than $100 dollars dealing with these corporations that can purchase things in bulk.

PS5/XB2
APU: $145
Motherboard: $55
Memory: $85
ODD: $25
SSD: $65
PSU: $45
Cooling: $50
Case: $60
Misc: $100
Total: $630

Launch price $499 (-$130 possible BOM lost).

And my pricing for SSD, PSU, ODD, Cooling, and some other misc items is based on my CDW and New Egg business account pricing. So, someone like Sony/MS has far more bulk/mass purchasing power than I, on getting better pricing.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Why Sony would waste resources on a custom case *design* for a DevKit which is significantly different to their planned launch escapes me completely. It makes no rational sense to me.

Why did Sony put screws with the PlayStation controller button symbols on inside the PS4 where most people will never see them?

Sometimes Sony do things that don't make a lot of sense.

 

[eloic]

Why did Sony put screws with the PlayStation controller button symbols on inside the PS4 where most people will never see them?

Sometimes Sony do things that don't make a lot of sense.

Come on, they're Japanese! Kawaiiness is definitely a factor.

 

[MrFox]

Why did Sony put screws with the PlayStation controller button symbols on inside the PS4 where most people will never see them?

Sometimes Sony do things that don't make a lot of sense.

There is only one bolt in the entire console that is user removeable, to upgrade your HDD or put an SSD. They had to identify it. It's in the manual.

 

[novcze]

Why did Sony put screws with the PlayStation controller button symbols on inside the PS4 where most people will never see them?

Sometimes Sony do things that don't make a lot of sense.

that's HDD cage and HDD is user replaceable so people will see it ... but yeah you can argue that most people won't

edit: and of course what MrFox says

 

[Deleted member 11852]

There is only one bolt in the entire console that is user removeable, to upgrade your HDD or put an SSD. They had to identify it. It's in the manual.

that's HDD cage and HDD is user replaceable so people will see it ... but yeah you can argue that most people won't

I saw it on PS4's launch day when a 7200rom 1Tb HDD went in, I know what it is. There are many alternative cheaper solutions to milling a bespoke screw which is an identical size to other non-PlayStation screws in the PS4 and PS4 Pro.

 

[MrFox]

I saw it on PS4's launch day when a 7200rom 1Tb HDD went in, I know what it is. There are many alternative cheaper solutions to milling a bespoke screw which is an identical size to other non-PlayStation screws in the PS4 and PS4 Pro.

Is it milled? That logo looks stamped, it's an outline so it doesn't require much force. Even milled, it's a minor operation..Seems like a very minor thing, and it made some publicity.

Funny that makes me think the devkit leaked would never had the widespread publicity without having this weird shape, maybe it's a fake patent by sony.

Speak of me in good, speak of me in bad, but speak of me.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I built an HTPC far more expensive than the next-generation consoles will ever cost, all within a footprint of the original Xbox One casing size. Two case fans and one CPU cooler cost about $65 dollars total. Running something like Crysis 3 or GTA 5, fan noises no louder than PS4 noise levels (actually better).

Point being, a good case layout and proper fan setup should be less than $100 dollars dealing with these corporations that can purchase things in bulk.

PS5/XB2
APU: $145
Motherboard: $55
Memory: $85
ODD: $25
SSD: $65
PSU: $45
Cooling: $50
Case: $60
Misc: $100
Total: $630

Launch price $499 (-$130 possible BOM lost).

And my pricing for SSD, PSU, ODD, Cooling, and some other misc items is based on my CDW and New Egg business account pricing. So, someone like Sony/MS has far more bulk/mass purchasing power than I, on getting better pricing.

You seriously think an APU with a 5700+ class GPU core and a Zen2 CPU core is only going to cost that much?

You think their custom SSD solutions are going to be only that much? For 1 TB or more? Games are likely to go up in size, so a 500 GB drive is going to be quite anemic if that's all they go for.

85 USD for 16-24 GB of fast GDDR6 memory? Really?

PSU is likely to be cheaper than your quote. Cooling might be more depending on how exotic they go with it in an attempt to cool a 175-250 watt SOC. And if you're going for a case that isn't monster size (larger than launch XBO), it's likely going to be more expensive, and not just a little bit more expensive.

For the VRMs and everything required for that level of power, the MB is likely to be quite a bit more than 55 USD. We're talking components that go into enthusiast class MBs on PC (which only need to feed 65-95 watt CPUs which will obviously use more when OCed but not to the 175-250 watt level). While the MB's aren't going to cost the 250+ that they do for enthusiast MBs that's going to be significantly more than 55 USD.

Regards,
SB

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Is it milled? That logo looks stamped, it's an outline so it doesn't require much force. Even milled, it's a minor operation..Seems like a very minor thing, and it made some publicity.

Nobody said it's complicated but it is a waste of money because it adds another unique item to the parts list and means the assembly lines need access to a third bucket of stupidly unique screws. It's a wasting of time and money just managing it, and the latter is not something Sony had a lot of going into PS4's launch.

To repeat my earlier post: Sometimes Sony do things that don't make a lot of sense.

 

[Shortbread]

Funny that makes me think the devkit leaked would never had the widespread publicity without having this weird shape, maybe it's a fake patent by sony.

A Codemaster developer already vouched that it was an actual SDK, and had a few within their office. Got in trouble I believe...

 

[Deleted member 11852]

A Codemaster developer already vouched that it was an actual SDK, and had a few within their office. Got in trouble I believe...

I have no words to describe my thoughts on this design for SDK hardware. Just.. no.. words..

 

[MrFox]

A Codemaster developer already vouched that it was an actual SDK, and had a few within their office. Got in trouble I believe...

Right I forgot, I keep imagining scenarios where it's not true. Maybe he was joking? Joking got him in trouble? He got caught hacking the brazilian patent office?

 

[Shortbread]

You seriously think an APU with a 5700+ class GPU core and a Zen2 CPU core is only going to cost that much?

What AMD charges PC consumers (margin markups / profits) isn't what Sony/MS pay. Pricing will be based on silicon wafs and bulk. Plus any other benefits from these types of partnerships.

You think their custom SSD solutions are going to be only that much? For 1 TB or more? Games are likely to go up in size, so a 500 GB drive is going to be quite anemic if that's all they go for.

In house designs could be cheaper. You can find 1TB SSDs for a $100 or less... even cheaper for businesses dealing in bulk purchases.

85 USD for 16-24 GB of fast GDDR6 memory? Really?

16GB of GDDR6 at bulk rates should be around $85.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

16GB of GDDR6 at bulk rates should be around $85.

Maybe less, because you're not buying this for this year and next, you're committing to buy this for the next 6-10 years. That guaranteed future custom buys big discounts. Suppliers like fiscal certainty.