Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

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What's the rumoured price/loss on that rumoured design?

GPU: $300 ($150 x 2) …tales from my ass.
CPU: $100 …tales from my ass.
Memory: 16GB GDDR6 $80 …tales from my ass.
Storage: 2TB SSD $65
PSU: $30
Drive: $35
Cooling: $25
MISC: $75-$100

Total: $710-$735 BoM

Using my vendor license and discount options the only prices that I'm sure of are the PSU, drive, cooling and storage. Mind you these prices are reflective of premium parts selections, not the cheapest solutions. And of course, someone like Sony and Microsoft will have volume pricing which is way out of my league.
 
SSD: $130

With these being highly customized SSDs it's unlikely they'll be using an off the shelf SSD controller. That means economies of scale won't be there for that custom bit of silicon, so the controller is going to be significantly more expensive than what an SSD maker would expect to pay. Consoles sell in miniscule numbers compared to even the worst selling SSD controllers. And the worst selling SSD controllers are often the most expensive as they are targeted at niche segments like data centers.

Also, since we don't know what exactly comprises their solution for faster SSD data access and streaming, it's entirely possible that it could be using a larger pool of DRAM cache, further increasing the cost of the SSD solution.

Considering how game asset loading times could potentially affect game graphics more than increasing GPU silicon space per USD spent, we could see more spent on the storage solutions with less spend on the SOC. This would lead to potentially disappointing specs for console warriors but a greater increase in game visuals than spending more on the SOC.

Some people look at this generation as potentially being "boring" due to how similar the SOC will be between the next PlayStation and Xbox, but (IMO) this could potentially be the most interesting as we could see greater emphasis on something that only indirectly affects the graphics that are displayed. However, that indirect effect is potentially massive and something that hasn't been previously explored.

Regards,
SB
 
If we attempt to remove retail margins and some manufacturer margin for buying in bulk then:
- 30% = $775
- 40% = $664
- 50% = $554
- 60% = $443

So ^^ yea. I don't think we have 40-50% margin to play with at the manufacturer level.

I'm within the 30% range (710-$735 BoM), factoring in most of the manufactures discounts / volume pricing (mostly towards the CPU/GPU).

A $499 price launch would be something like $210-$235 in BoM losses, if these numbers were anywhere to being concrete.
 
I'm within the 30% range (710-$735 BoM), factoring in most of the manufactures discounts / volume pricing (mostly towards the CPU/GPU).

A $499 price launch would be something like $210-$235 in BoM losses, if these numbers were anywhere to being concrete.
Updated my post to include the maximum subsidies allowed and to account for a 2x GPU.
 
I'm within the 30% range (710-$735 BoM), factoring in most of the manufactures discounts / volume pricing (mostly towards the CPU/GPU).

A $499 price launch would be something like $210-$235 in BoM losses, if these numbers were anywhere to being concrete.

Got it, so PS5 was codename Neo and PS5 is codename NeoGeo?
 
https://www.videogameschronicle.com/new

''the company won’t be too reliant on dedicated hardware as it’s just a small part of the wider marketplace''

''[The] console market, if you look at the game industry as a whole, is not a major market but rather it’s a niche market if you will.''

Seems like even Sony is gearing more towards streaming, for the future?
 
GPU : $799 (5700XT) x 2 (16GB GDDR6)
36 CUs isn't a 5700XT, it's a 5700 that now goes for $350.
And if it's running at 1550MHz then it most probably doesn't nearly the same BoM for voltage regulation, neither will they run at 150W each.

That rumor's still pointing to a huge BoM, though the biggest stretch IMO would be the dual GPU.


GPU: $300 ($150 x 2) …tales from my ass.
CPU: $100 …tales from my ass.
Memory: 16GB GDDR6 $80 …tales from my ass.
Storage: 2TB SSD $65
PSU: $30
Drive: $35
Cooling: $25
MISC: $75-$100

Total: $710-$735 BoM
This one seems closer to how the actual BoM would be for Sony.
 
Judging by Navi benchmarks, especially taking TDP and mm² into account, 40CUs will be max for these consoles.

Something between 5700 and XT will be ~ 2070 and will be able to fit into console budget (again, TDP and die size).

Dual CUs, butterflies, magic dust etc. I wouldnt expect it. Consoles with 9TF Navi + RT, Zen2 and gobs of RAM/SSD will be bottlenecked by nothing in first 2-3 years. That is far more then devs are used to.
 
Judging by Navi benchmarks, especially taking TDP and mm² into account, 40CUs will be max for these consoles.

Something between 5700 and XT will be ~ 2070 and will be able to fit into console budget (again, TDP and die size).

Dual CUs, butterflies, magic dust etc. I wouldnt expect it. Consoles with 9TF Navi + RT, Zen2 and gobs of RAM/SSD will be bottlenecked by nothing in first 2-3 years. That is far more then devs are used to.
You always use first generation of Navi GPU to estimate 2020 consoles. But as I said several times, console GPUs often have much better power efficiency than PC GPUs. The latest example is x1x GPU which is much efficient than AMD's GPU for PC.

So you only estimate the "baseline" of next-gen consoles.

From previous records we can expect next-gen console GPU with 1.4~1.6x of power efficiency of 5700XT.
 
With these being highly customized SSDs it's unlikely they'll be using an off the shelf SSD controller. That means economies of scale won't be there for that custom bit of silicon, so the controller is going to be significantly more expensive than what an SSD maker would expect to pay. Consoles sell in miniscule numbers compared to even the worst selling SSD controllers. And the worst selling SSD controllers are often the most expensive as they are targeted at niche segments like data centers.

Also, since we don't know what exactly comprises their solution for faster SSD data access and streaming, it's entirely possible that it could be using a larger pool of DRAM cache, further increasing the cost of the SSD solution.

Considering how game asset loading times could potentially affect game graphics more than increasing GPU silicon space per USD spent, we could see more spent on the storage solutions with less spend on the SOC. This would lead to potentially disappointing specs for console warriors but a greater increase in game visuals than spending more on the SOC.

Some people look at this generation as potentially being "boring" due to how similar the SOC will be between the next PlayStation and Xbox, but (IMO) this could potentially be the most interesting as we could see greater emphasis on something that only indirectly affects the graphics that are displayed. However, that indirect effect is potentially massive and something that hasn't been previously explored.

Regards,
SB

Read the Sony patent, it replaces 1GB of DRAM by some SRAM...
 
You always use first generation of Navi GPU to estimate 2020 consoles. But as I said several times, console GPUs often have much better power efficiency than PC GPUs. The latest example is x1x GPU which is much efficient than AMD's GPU for PC.

So you only estimate the "baseline" of next-gen consoles.

From previous records we can expect next-gen console GPU with 1.4~1.6x of power efficiency of 5700XT.
I am estimating it based on what we have. Same as when we had last gen and Pitcairn and mid gen refresh with Polaris.

People are dreaming about 72CUs and Navi2 being 30% more efficient, but I am going by what we have.

There is no magic console energy efficiency. GCN parts in consoles use less watts duo to wattage limit they hit once they are overclocked out of the box (as AMD did).

From what I can see, that limit is no longer there, as XT version of Navi witu 4CUs more and 200MHZ uses predictably more power (considering performance increase).

Therefore I expect something between 5700 and XT as 10TF Navi will not be acceptable in console form, but 9TF just might be (or slightly below it).
 
The only thing I expect Navi-2 to bring for consoles is RayTracing. If we're extremely fortunate, some minor power refinements from being fabricated 6-9 months later.
 
I am estimating it based on what we have. Same as when we had last gen and Pitcairn and mid gen refresh with Polaris.

People are dreaming about 72CUs and Navi2 being 30% more efficient, but I am going by what we have.

There is no magic console energy efficiency. GCN parts in consoles use less watts duo to wattage limit they hit once they are overclocked out of the box (as AMD did).

From what I can see, that limit is no longer there, as XT version of Navi witu 4CUs more and 200MHZ uses predictably more power (considering performance increase).

Therefore I expect something between 5700 and XT as 10TF Navi will not be acceptable in console form, but 9TF just might be (or slightly below it).
If they use 7nm then we won't even have 9Tf. They'll deactivate 4, that's a 5700 and we'll get about 8 tflops, not 9.
The only thing I expect Navi-2 to bring for consoles is RayTracing. If we're extremely fortunate, some minor power refinements from being fabricated 6-9 months later.
Maybe variable rate shading ?
 
Maybe variable rate shading ?

I thought they already had that in Navi? Or at least expected them to have it cause it's an older concept and they had patents from 2017 related to it. But now that I'm trying to find something more, I don't see it listed.
 
With these being highly customized SSDs it's unlikely they'll be using an off the shelf SSD controller. That means economies of scale won't be there for that custom bit of silicon, so the controller is going to be significantly more expensive than what an SSD maker would expect to pay. Consoles sell in miniscule numbers compared to even the worst selling SSD controllers. And the worst selling SSD controllers are often the most expensive as they are targeted at niche segments like data centers.

Also, since we don't know what exactly comprises their solution for faster SSD data access and streaming, it's entirely possible that it could be using a larger pool of DRAM cache, further increasing the cost of the SSD solution.

Considering how game asset loading times could potentially affect game graphics more than increasing GPU silicon space per USD spent, we could see more spent on the storage solutions with less spend on the SOC. This would lead to potentially disappointing specs for console warriors but a greater increase in game visuals than spending more on the SOC.

Some people look at this generation as potentially being "boring" due to how similar the SOC will be between the next PlayStation and Xbox, but (IMO) this could potentially be the most interesting as we could see greater emphasis on something that only indirectly affects the graphics that are displayed. However, that indirect effect is potentially massive and something that hasn't been previously explored.

Regards,
SB
Read the Sony patent, it replaces 1GB of DRAM by some SRAM...



3 Samsung K4AAG085WB-MCRC, 2 of those close to the NAND acting as DRAM cache (unusual 2GB DRAM per 1 TB NAND)

Heh...this rumor...just keep getting back to it :D
 
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