Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

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You're not having fun here anymore are you? There are conspiracies on all kinds of sites like NeoGAF or ResetEra. Maybe you would have more fun there?

No. I'm just anti-bullshit with these supposed insiders and their lame attempts on creating a certain narrative.
 
I am relatively sure if you are big console manufacturer you dont procure on their product page :)

But yea, maybe they are not actually ready yet for mass production, but can be used as chips in limited dev kit numbers. I think putting 18Gbps there, die size mm² and VRM is very very specific. Either best fake till now or actually PS5 dev kit.

It's a really good fake or real leak. The poster is most likely someone who worked/is working in the supply chain for consoles.
 
No. I'm just anti-bullshit with these supposed insiders and their lame attempts on creating a certain narrative.

You understand you're in the baseless rumor thread? Sounds like you would be better off coming back next E3.

Tommy McClain
 
It's a really good fake or real leak. The poster is most likely someone who worked/is working in the supply chain for consoles.
Could be from QA or manufacturing, as there is likelyhood he is from Asia (posted 21st May Cake Day when it was evening 20th in GMT, therefore likely timezone difference ie. Asia).

Him being so specific about VRMs of all things would point to QA/validation or something.
 
I think it’s clear he had information from developers. What is not clear is what the developers received.

What if they purposefully and only sent a devkit to represent Lockhart because Anaconda isn’t ready?

In June he got the information from developers of the PS5's target specs being the most powerful. Also in June, many other very credible sources said Lockhart had been axed for a while.

Occam's razor is very clear here.
What exactly do you think the chances are that Lockhart had been an active project up to 4 days leading to E3, in that time some devs gave the journalists the info about the PS5 being more powerful than Lockhart, and all of a sudden no developer was talking about Lockhart?


And just to make something clear here (because there's a mod who apparently gets super triggered by credible sources quoting developers saying PS5 is more powerful than Scarlett and reacts by moving dozens of technical posts to this thread, locking the other one, editing posts, etc.):

- One console will definitely be "more powerful" than the other in paper, even if it's by 5 GFLOPs due to a dozen MHz more on one side.
I don't think for a second that it will be the same difference 40% difference in compute throughput and 150% difference in memory bandwidth (partially mitigated by the 32MB eDRAM) we saw between the PS4 and the XBone.
I think it will be at most a 15% difference because the architectures will be similar if not identic, no one is going to adopt an ancient and slow memory tech that needs to occupy 1/3rd of the SoC with edram to compensate and no one is going to repeat the same kinect tv tv sports mistake again.
And then 10-15% won't be noticeable to end users, especially in the age of VRR with dynamic scaling.

The problem here IMO was Phil Spencer in 2018 promising to have the faster next-gen console two years later, without possibly knowing the full extent of Sony's plans.
I love what Phil has done to XBox, especially after the clusterfuck left by Don Matrick, but that was a dumb move. It was that statement that made XBox fans obsess with hardware power, who are now killing the messenger.

Sony has a much larger userbase, and basic economy of scale and risk assessment applies: they can risk subsidizing a larger percentage of the hardware because their amount of minimum assured sales for software is larger.

Why Phil Spencer thought he'd get the larger SoC or faster clocks or whatever is beyond me. Perhaps he was blindsided by rumors or false info of Sony targeting aate 2019 / early 2020 release, so his team accounted for Sony using at best a sub-300mm^2 SoC that couldn't be larger due to predicted 7nm DUV yields.


A larger LLC should help mitigate requests on a shared external bus.
Yes but there are many rumors pointing to both consoles using a pool of DDR4 for the O.S., to which the CPU should probably get exclusive access. Not having to compete as much with the GPU for access to the faster DRAM (be it HBM or GDDR6) should also mitigate the need for a large L3.

I'm not saying this is what will happen, I'm just providing examples of how two similarly sized SoCs sharing the same (or at least very similar) CPU and GPU architectures could get slighlty different performance targets, considering that Microsoft already said they will be renting Azure servers with Scarlett to service loads other than cloud gaming.
 
You understand you're in the baseless rumor thread? Sounds like you would be better off coming back next E3.

Tommy McClain

I understand. I also understand those wanting to create a certain narrative based on factless rumors and conjecture.
 
No. I'm just anti-bullshit with these supposed insiders and their lame attempts on creating a certain narrative.
Yeah people have a selective memory. The basis of mid-gen discussion in 2016 (right here on b3d) was from some three sku "confirmation" by brad sams, a streaming stick, a "tiny" discless slim for 100-150, and the X might get an upgrade (but he wasn't the source of the 10TF).

I thought here, it sounded familiar, so grain of salt required.
 
The problem here IMO was Phil Spencer in 2018 promising to have the faster next-gen console two years later, without possibly knowing the full extent of Sony's plans.
I love what Phil has done to XBox, especially after the clusterfuck left by Don Matrick, but that was a dumb move. It was that statement that made XBox fans obsess with hardware power, who are now killing the messenger.

Phil likes to tell people what they want to hear. It's bound to get him in trouble at times.
 
IMO, until there is actual finalized physical silicon hardware it's all baseless, even more baseless is unknown anonymous people's reactions to plans that have changed.

So it's into extreme silly season we go until the Jan-March 2020 time-frame. :-|
 
In June he got the information from developers of the PS5's target specs being the most powerful. Also in June, many other very credible sources said Lockhart had been axed for a while.

Occam's razor is very clear here.
What exactly do you think the chances are that Lockhart had been an active project up to 4 days leading to E3, in that time some devs gave the journalists the info about the PS5 being more powerful than Lockhart, and all of a sudden no developer was talking about Lockhart?
A lot of this info is blindsiding me honestly. Its actually the first I've read of it so I don't know what to make of it. I don't know if that information is credible. All logic would point that the earliest that developers would have been comparing the systems would have started in late April and more likely in May leading up to E3.

Any cancellation of Lockhart would have happened between April to E3. Which is at most 1.5 months. This idea that it was cancelled 6 months earlier is likely wrong since no devkits have been sent out yet (at least by Sony for sure) and we would have gotten reports of that happening as early as January - but we didn't get any reports of Lockhart going away until post E3.

My goal with my posts is mainly to communicate that there is clearly some conflicting truths being released on the internet. And that the timing of when things happen can make information both right and wrong at the same time. I'm only trying to put out the fact that there should be a lot of doubt placed on a lot of these claims.

There has been much more credible leaks in the past than what Andrew has given out.
 
Yeah people have a selective memory. The basis of mid-gen discussion in 2016 (right here on b3d) was from some three sku "confirmation" by brad sams, a streaming stick, a "tiny" discless slim for 100-150, and the X might get an upgrade.

I thought here, it sounded familiar, so grain of salt required.

Yup.

I don't have a problem with speculation (because I post links to speculation), or supposed "inside information." It only becomes a problem when these supposed insiders start beating other drums (i.e., winking, nodding, conflating, etc..) outside the scope of the original inside information, which was given to them. It's the crafting of these false narratives that leads others to question their credibility.​
 
A lot of this info is blindsiding me honestly. Its actually the first I've read of it so I don't know what to make of it. I don't know if that information is credible. All logic would point that the earliest that developers would have been comparing the systems would have started in late April and more likely in May leading up to E3.

Any cancellation of Lockhart would have happened between April to E3. Which is at most 1.5 months. This idea that it was cancelled 6 months earlier is likely wrong since no devkits have been sent out yet (at least by Sony for sure) and we would have gotten reports of that happening as early as January - but we didn't get any reports of Lockhart going away until post E3.

My goal with my posts is mainly to communicate that there is clearly some conflicting truths being released on the internet. And that the timing of when things happen can make information both right and wrong at the same time. I'm only trying to put out the fact that there should be a lot of doubt placed on a lot of these claims.

There has been much more credible leaks in the past than what Andrew has given out.

I could be very much wrong, but didn't ZhugeEX or another trusted moderator over at ERA hint at knowing that the information on Lockhart (plans) were canceled for quite some time (way before E3)? Like I said, I could be wrong...
 
I could be very much wrong, but didn't ZhugeEX or another trusted moderator over at ERA hint at knowing that the information on Lockhart (plans) were canceled for quite some time (way before E3)? Like I said, I could be wrong...

The two comments that stick out to me are:
I think they made mention that they didn’t think Lockhart was real. But everyone else seemed to believe Brad so they kept Ho hum.

Another made mention that they know MS changes plans all the time so they didn’t want to move forward with the info. IIRC.

Brad and Jez both went forward with the dual SKUs.

I don’t think anyone is lying necessarily either. We have a leak dump that 6 months later proved fairly accurate. And it had 2 Xbox sku specs on it as well.

So... As I said earlier, conflicting truths.
 
Conflicting facts. Only one of them can be true.

There's been a lot of exagerations and extrapolations from jez and brad in the past, but also directly from MS. Even if E3 was the mildest of the past few years from that perspective, they still said it had 4 times the processing power of X, which they had announced as having 6TF of processing power. For a non-technical gamer, it's an obvious 24TF, but for us it's being creative with numbers, maybe counting RPM, or tensors style fixed function, IPC optimism, etc...

But now imagine if they had said 2x. It would have been a slam dunk confirmation of 12TF traditional FP32 for us. We immediately tossed aside that 4x, even if it's literally the official MS unveiling spec. We're believing based on what we already accepted as reasonable. We did the same thing with any rumors, if it's in the ballpark of what we established, we tend to give credibility to the rumor. So the rumors are useless, we already know the limits of what they can do with zen2, navi and an ssd.

We missed the mark about the 8GB of gddr5 because nobody did the proper research about gddr5 contract prices, someone guessed $160 and it had no other source because dramxchange didn't track gddr contract prices. It was the hive mind.
 
Still going on about processing power not meaning CPU? :???:
 
That's the latest explanation?

What do you mean latest? Did you not read the tweets by Sebi (back in April)? There were several technical posts showing how the CPU is 4x over the PS4/XO Jaguars.

Here they are yet again...

Sebi said:
8x Zen2 cores is roughly 4x faster than 8x Jaguar. Roughly 2x IPC and roughly 2x clocks (conservative 3.2 GHz estimate). Also 8x faster for AVX workloads (Jag was 0.5 rate AVX, Zen2 is 2.0 rate) such as ISPC and Unity Burst

Sebi said:
That might be true. But then again Zen 1 was already over 2x IPC of Jaguar, and Zen 2 got noticeable IPC uplift. So should be 4x+ in total with any reasonable clock rate in general purpose code. And of course higher in AVX/AVX2 code. So get that ISPC or Burst compiler ready.


 
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