Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [pre E3 2019]

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8c/16t @3-3.2GHz is plenty enough for console gaming. Something like the current Ryzen 7 2700 or even 1700 can run [alpha] game monsters like Star Citizen extremely well. As long as Sony and Microsoft provide a decent amount of system memory and GPU performance, CPU performance shouldn't be too much of an issue this time around.

Honestly, I'm still quite impressed by the performance still being milked from the Jaguar.

Listen Focker I gotta say that I love my 1700x but I would say it runs star citizen extremely well. I would have liked to have seen 16 cores . I believe with 7nm zen chips that 16 cores is what gamers will start to move towards as they will be very affordable . I was hoping this upcoming generation would be ahead of the game instead of behind. 8 cores is fine but I think it will be quickly leap frogged by pcs again
 
Listen Focker I gotta say that I love my 1700x but I would say it runs star citizen extremely well. I would have liked to have seen 16 cores . I believe with 7nm zen chips that 16 cores is what gamers will start to move towards as they will be very affordable . I was hoping this upcoming generation would be ahead of the game instead of behind. 8 cores is fine but I think it will be quickly leap frogged by pcs again

I really don't see it. The Jaguar cores in the current consoles somehow run battlefield at almost 60 fps yet you need a much more powerful CPU on PC to get similar results. Ryzen 2 is going to be fantastic in the next gen consoles.

I've never understood why people compare high end PC hardware to consoles. You don't get car nuts being smart about a Ferrari and how it out performs a Ford Focus.
 
8 cores is fine but I think it will be quickly leap frogged by pcs again

Um, not at the rate you think. The majority of PC gamers are still using 4c/8t CPUs.
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https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/cpus/?sort=name
 
I really don't see it. The Jaguar cores in the current consoles somehow run battlefield at almost 60 fps yet you need a much more powerful CPU on PC to get similar results. Ryzen 2 is going to be fantastic in the next gen consoles.

I've never understood why people compare high end PC hardware to consoles. You don't get car nuts being smart about a Ferrari and how it out performs a Ford Focus.
The issue is that the vast majority of games will be designed to work on consoles. Since 2013 we have been stuck with an 8 core 1.6ghz jaguar as the defacto standard. Now in 2020 it appears an 8 core zen 2 will be the defacto. Yes an upgrade to be sure but on the pc side we are already moving away from 8 core chips
Um, not at the rate you think. The majority of PC gamers are still using 4c/8t CPUs.
The issue with steam results is its all devices. I have a surface pro 6 that I sometimes run older games on and it would show up as a 4/8 I believe on steam hardware results. But it isn't what I really game on and I am sure its the same for a lot of people. Also a lot of the dual core system will age out now and be replaced with octa cores and higher . The pricing of higher cores continues to dwindle.
 
We already know. That’s two chiplets and we’ve already seen what the chiplet and package looks like at CES.
Interesting but I don't see why they can't be combined by amd in a future revision. They most likely went this route so they could sell lower core counts out of the bad chips.

I would still have perfered them to just use a 16 core cpu and separate graphics chip
 
Yes an upgrade to be sure but on the pc side we are already moving away from 8 core chips
They’re going to have to if they want more
Performance than the coming consoles.
Undoubtedly we will see 30/60 FPS titles as he majority for next gen. You’re going to need a lot more CPU and GPU to get up to 120hz
 
Sorry if I missed someone make this specific point on PS5 external storage / PCIe 4.0...

PS5's 0.8 seconds to load a Spiderman city block doesn't sound radically more performant than PCIe 4.0 SSD controller demos. Phison's controller hits 4GB/s, which is probably about the same ballpark. That gives some hope for generic external storage options by the time PS5 launches?
 
Sorry if I missed someone make this specific point on PS5 external storage / PCIe 4.0...

PS5's 0.8 seconds to load a Spiderman city block doesn't sound radically more performant than PCIe 4.0 SSD controller demos. Phison's controller hits 4GB/s, which is probably about the same ballpark. That gives some hope for generic external storage options by the time PS5 launches?

There have also been suggestions that GPU decompression is also at use for these insane load times and texture streaming performance.

I hope they include a TB3/USBC port for external drives.

Interesting but I don't see why they can't be combined by amd in a future revision. They most likely went this route so they could sell lower core counts out of the bad chips.

I would still have perfered them to just use a 16 core cpu and separate graphics chip

They went this route because it’s extremely economical to make 70mm^2 chips on 7nm as opposed to the alternative. The groundwork laid by Threadripper and Epyc for this chiplet approach with the use of IF, and the IO die is just the next evolution of that cost optimizing.
 
Yes an upgrade to be sure but on the pc side we are already moving away from 8 core chips
That's not true if you look the Steam survey a second time. The average PC gamer as 3.6 cores, so a PC game has to run with those specs on average, and current gen consoles do not hold back possibilities so much.
After next gen launch 8 core console standard will increase minimal specs on PC, but nobody will make games requiring 8 cores anytime soon, and only a minority of PC gamers will buy 12/16 core CPUs for this reason.

Actually (in contrast to GPUs) it's quite difficult to come up with ideas how to utilize many core CPUs while still making the same game run on lower specs. What would you expect as an extra feature? (Sadly more physics does not make so much sense.)
 
I would still have perfered them to just use a 16 core cpu and separate graphics chip

So are you hoping for a dedicated CPU and GPU, rather than an APU? If so, what reasonable power/thermal constraints are you looking at with this type of design? What clocks/frequencies are you expecting from each? Pricing?
 
What is your thoughts about having a 60FPS@4K mode and a 30FPS@8K (or higher than 4K) mode with reduced graphics in games. Is that something some developers might do on the PS5 and NextBox in the future?
 
In regards to the SSD: While I certainly believe some sort of solid state implementation is an absolute necessity going in to the next generation and I'm relieved that Sony have confirmed it; I'm hoping that Cerny's reference to "SSD storage" is a simplification and is in regards to a large cache/scratchpad on the motherboard -- perhaps in the ~120-160GB region -- and not the primary mass storage device.

Even with price reductions, I can't see an SSD above 1TB being feasible; and with ever-increasing game sizes, I think 2TB is a much more reasonable default capacity for the next generation.

I still believe the most logical solution at this point is a 2TB HDD + ~120-160GB Hi-Speed NAND Cache/Scratchpad..

..this provides large default storage, easy/cheap user upgradeability for the average Joe, all of the advantages of solid state storage once the game is loaded in to memory and provides developers with a known spec to work to (speed and latency) that isn't going to be altered by the end user. The only disadvantage I see is a slower initial load for a game that hasn't been run recently.

The only advantages I see for a single large SSD is the aforementioned initial load of less recently used software and a negligible reduction in the size/complexity of the console unit itself..

One option is of course expandable external storage, but even an SSD attached via USB 3.1 Gen2 is going to be limited compared to the next gen speeds Cerny is suggesting here and should Sony wish to provide devs with a known spec, it will require a cache on the single internal SSD which will take up precious drive space there. Another option is an additional expansion slot in the console for another high speed drive or simply allowing the user to swap the main drive as you effectively can now.

But, either way you're mandating certain specs for additional storage solutions to the average Joe which will further complicate matters, or you risking degrading performance.


As I say, my favourite all-round solution -- thinking of the bigger picture and the average end-user -- is:

1) 2TB 2.5" HDD Mass Storage + ~120-160GB High Speed NAND Cache


And if they're totally set on primary storage being a large SSD:

2) 1TB 'Next-Gen' SSD + Additional Internal NVMe Expansion Slot..

..with an official and competitively priced selection of Sony/PS expansion drives which makes it simple for the casual user to upgrade while also mandating minimum specs for and/or curating a list of approved third-party drives which will not degrade performance; providing power users with more choice.

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In regards to 8K: I like most others want to see most most games sticking between 4K Reconstruction and 4K Native; and I very much doubt that all but the smallest, simplest games will push beyond those.

But, seeing as it is in the HDMI spec, there's little harm in allowing the console to simply output 8K, have 8K upscaling, having the console UI capable of rendering in 8K and perhaps support for 8K media.

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...
VR demands 3D audio. For PSVR they had it in an external processing box, now they can move it internally [which will reduce the price for PSVR2].

A great point. And as a bonus it can be utilised for headphones in conventional games; and I suspect that both surround sound systems and even TV audio will at least garner a small benefit when it is used as a basis.

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When it comes to ray tracing I'd just be happy to have it utilised for shadows and select reflections with VCT/SVOGI-like solutions being used as the backbone for more dynamic worlds.

I'd love to see accurate reflections in the mirror-like windows of the skyscrapers in Spider-Man.

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In regards to the SSD: While I certainly believe some sort of solid state implementation is an absolute necessity going in to the next generation and I'm relieved that Sony have confirmed it; I'm hoping that Cerny's reference to "SSD storage" is a simplification and is in regards to a large cache/scratchpad on the motherboard -- perhaps in the ~120-160GB region -- and not the primary mass storage device.

Even with price reductions, I can't see an SSD above 1TB being feasible; and with ever-increasing game sizes, I think 2TB is a much more reasonable default capacity for the next generation.

I still believe the most logical solution at this point is a 2TB HDD + ~120-160GB Hi-Speed NAND Cache/Scratchpad..

..this provides large default storage, easy/cheap user upgradeability for the average Joe, all of the advantages of solid state storage once the game is loaded in to memory and provides developers with a known spec to work to (speed and latency) that isn't going to be altered by the end user. The only disadvantage I see is a slower initial load for a game that hasn't been run recently.

The only advantages I see for a single large SSD is the aforementioned initial load of less recently used software and a negligible reduction in the size/complexity of the console unit itself..

One option is of course expandable external storage, but even an SSD attached via USB 3.1 Gen2 is going to be limited compared to the next gen speeds Cerny is suggesting here and should Sony wish to provide devs with a known spec, it will require a cache on the single internal SSD which will take up precious drive space there. Another option is an additional expansion slot in the console for another high speed drive or simply allowing the user to swap the main drive as you effectively can now.

But, either way you're mandating certain specs for additional storage solutions to the average Joe which will further complicate matters, or you risking degrading performance.


As I say, my favourite all-round solution -- thinking of the bigger picture and the average end-user -- is:

1) 2TB 2.5" HDD Mass Storage + ~120-160GB High Speed NAND Cache


And if they're totally set on primary storage being a large SSD:

2) 1TB 'Next-Gen' SSD + Additional Internal NVMe Expansion Slot..

..with an official and competitively priced selection of Sony/PS expansion drives which makes it simple for the casual user to upgrade while also mandating minimum specs for and/or curating a list of approved third-party drives which will not degrade performance; providing power users with more choice.

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-------

In regards to 8K: I like most others want to see most most games sticking between 4K Reconstruction and 4K Native; and I very much doubt that all but the smallest, simplest games will push beyond those.

But, seeing as it is in the HDMI spec, there's little harm in allowing the console to simply output 8K, have 8K upscaling, having the console UI capable of rendering in 8K and perhaps support for 8K media.

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A great point. And as a bonus it can be utilised for headphones in conventional games; and I suspect that both surround sound systems and even TV audio will at least garner a small benefit when it is used as a basis.

-------
-------

When it comes to ray tracing I'd just be happy to have it utilised for shadows and select reflections with VCT/SVOGI-like solutions being used as the backbone for more dynamic worlds.

I'd love to see accurate reflections in the mirror-like windows of the skyscrapers in Spider-Man.

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Which is exactly what the Pastbin european AAA dev (supposedly) leaked. 2TB HDD + Nand. And Cerny never stated PS5 will have a SSD. He even said faster than any SSD and also that the retail unit will be even faster than the dev-kit at that.
 
What is your thoughts about having a 60FPS@4K mode and a 30FPS@8K (or higher than 4K) mode with reduced graphics in games. Is that something some developers might do on the PS5 and NextBox in the future?

Game developers will do what they have done for decades. Work within the bounds of the hardware capabilities. Hopefully we'll see some great checkerboard solutions and improved framerates from these solutions.
 
I'm putting this here for reference, these are the only exact quotes from Cerny which are not paraphrased or extrapolated by the journalist.....

“The key question, is whether the console adds another layer to the sorts of experiences you already have access to, or if it allows for fundamental changes in what a game can be.”

“next-gen console,“

“a true game changer, the key to the next generation.”

“I have an SSD in my laptop, and when I want to change from Excel to Word I can wait 15 seconds.”

“No matter how powered up you get as Spider-Man, you can never go any faster than this, because that's simply how fast we can get the data off the hard drive.”

“We're very used to flying logos at the start of the game and graphic-heavy selection screens, even things like multiplayer lobbies and intentionally detailed loadout processes, because you don't want players just to be waiting."

“The raw read speed is important, but so are the details of the I/O [input-output] mechanisms and the software stack that we put on top of them. I got a PlayStation 4 Pro and then I put in a SSD that cost as much as the PlayStation 4 Pro—it might be one-third faster."

“we are cloud-gaming pioneers, and our vision should become clear as we head toward launch”

(later via twitter)
"I believe that we will be able to release it at an SRP that will be appealing to gamers in light of its advanced feature set"
 
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