Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [pre E3 2019]

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Its called expanding your market. Consumers that dont own a 42"+ 4K TV are lkely budget minded and wouldnt be buying a $400/$500 console.

If part of your plan is to stream the games having 1080 as a design target seems reasonable also, 1080 will play far nicer than a 4k stream and expand the devices that can support it.
 
Looking at it from the other direction, how much can you drop on the lower-tier base? How much memory is needed for 1080p instead of 4K? Or would the bottom SKU be able to render 4K but at substandard (by comparison) graphics quality?
The big issue I'm seeing here is the Base 4tf console would simply not be able to handle a slew of high end techniques such as SVOGI, fluid dynamic simulations, wide spread tessellation or complex shadows on top of everything else in a game. Those things would take up multiple teraflops to render on their own so lowering the res would not be possible at a certain point. You would probably need 4tf just to render all the basics such as next gen characters, environment, assets in general, alphas, 4K textures and a few others at 1080p. It would just be a super gimped experience.
 
Looking at it from the other direction, how much can you drop on the lower-tier base? How much memory is needed for 1080p instead of 4K? Or would the bottom SKU be able to render 4K but at substandard (by comparison) graphics quality?
And one thing than can happen with a 4tf 1080p base machine for MS is that Sony could launch a 11 tflop only machine and make 1440p the mandatory resolution (if they have expanded and improved their hardware scaling solution) and they would in fact get games with much better graphics. This would force MS to have two different visual versions of their games which would devalue their cheap proposition more. In fact is what I would do...they also have to think in their PS now for the future stream of their games to conpete Amazon and Google as well as MS, and as you have said a smaller resolutiin helps ( also for servers cost ).
 
And one thing than can happen with a 4tf 1080p base machine for MS is that Sony could launch a 11 tflop only machine and make 1440p the mandatory resolution (if they have expanded and improved their hardware scaling solution) and they would in fact get games with much better graphics. This would force MS to have two different visual versions of their games which would devalue their cheap proposition more. In fact is what I would do...they also have to think in their PS now for the future stream of their games to conpete Amazon and Google as well as MS, and as you have said a smaller resolutiin helps ( also for servers cost ).
This is where a leap into the 'if it works' comes in.
That console would be capable of doing hybrid streaming also. If it was just a streaming box it would be like an amazon fire stick etc.

With hybrid streaming get better latency and graphics. So maybe 1440p at same level as ps5 or close enough to it.
Or totally offline no streaming at 1080p but with lower graphics for people who would wait 2-3 years before buying that gen.

I've always expected that from that console, and if we are discussing the leak it mentions focus on streaming. Which shouldn't need such hardware if it was basic streaming.

As I said, it's all about if it works though.
If it has nothing to do with hybrid streaming then it will be all about price point and performance as being highlighted.
 
What are the chances of MS releasing a third SKU alongside which acts like their "true" next gen baseline, let's say around 8-9TF while the 4TF one is simply for streaming only? Perhaps Lockhart is not 4TF after all but 1TF just like how the Verge Editor claimed not all specs from that new leak are accurate?
 
What are the chances of MS releasing a third SKU alongside which acts like their "true" next gen baseline, let's say around 8-9TF while the 4TF one is simply for streaming only? Perhaps Lockhart is not 4TF after all but 1TF just like how the Verge Editor claimed not all specs from that new leak are accurate?
Even 1TF wouldn't make sense for spec of that console
Amount of memory, storage etc, just to be able to stream?
Streaming device will likely be arm based, running just win core os, no other modules ie no game os module, no x86 emu module.
It will run the streaming app, and basic uwp apps just fine. C shell will take care of the interface.

Family of devices :
  1. Streaming only (arm)
  2. Offline capable + hybrid streaming (Lockhart)
  3. Top end offline bells and whistles (anaconda)
MS has mentioned hybrid streaming, but, well who knows.
 
What are the chances of MS releasing a third SKU alongside which acts like their "true" next gen baseline, let's say around 8-9TF while the 4TF one is simply for streaming only? Perhaps Lockhart is not 4TF after all but 1TF just like how the Verge Editor claimed not all specs from that new leak are accurate?
Why do you need even a flop for streaming?. A video processor and a soc handling the compression algorithm is enough.
 
One thing I need to get clear tho, will the visual output quality of streaming match to the high end Anaconda? If so then you effectively pay only $299 or less for the quality of a $499 console but only by streaming, for offline gaming you're downgraded to the quality of a 4TF console. MS could then market both consoles as sharing the "same" experience and make it sound like no one is left behind but Anaconda would get you that experience any time any where.
 
The big issue I'm seeing here is the Base 4tf console would simply not be able to handle a slew of high end techniques such as SVOGI, fluid dynamic simulations, wide spread tessellation or complex shadows on top of everything else in a game. Those things would take up multiple teraflops to render on their own so lowering the res would not be possible at a certain point. You would probably need 4tf just to render all the basics such as next gen characters, environment, assets in general, alphas, 4K textures and a few others at 1080p. It would just be a super gimped experience.

It'd be generally the same experience, with lower resolutions. Even now most workloads scale well with resolution - shadows, rays, alpha (actually rops / BW dependent) etc. Texture sampling rates are directly in line with resolution, cache effectiveness depends on texture lod. You can check this out for yourself with different settings - even RTX stuff - on PC.

If it were going to be an issue - and MS would know - they can keep a higher number of whichever fixed function elements they need e.g. tessellate capability, triangle setup. I would generally expect them to scale down roughly inline with compute, though.

Going with a 4k / 1080 target for both systems (or a 4x difference) you'd be looking at a 12 TF and a 3TF console if everything scaled perfectly with resolution. The rumours state a 4TF low end system. That's actually quite a lot to cover any overhead from none-resolution-scaling elements of the game.

Having the same featureset is very important though. Having the same system of navigating acceleration structures and doing intersection tests would be huge. Hopefully something very fast and very hardware accelerated.
 
It'd be generally the same experience, with lower resolutions. Even now most workloads scale well with resolution - shadows, rays, alpha (actually rops / BW dependent) etc. Texture sampling rates are directly in line with resolution, cache effectiveness depends on texture lod. You can check this out for yourself with different settings - even RTX stuff - on PC.

If it were going to be an issue - and MS would know - they can keep a higher number of whichever fixed function elements they need e.g. tessellate capability, triangle setup. I would generally expect them to scale down roughly inline with compute, though.

Going with a 4k / 1080 target for both systems (or a 4x difference) you'd be looking at a 12 TF and a 3TF console if everything scaled perfectly with resolution. The rumours state a 4TF low end system. That's actually quite a lot to cover any overhead from none-resolution-scaling elements of the game.

Having the same featureset is very important though. Having the same system of navigating acceleration structures and doing intersection tests would be huge. Hopefully something very fast and very hardware accelerated.
How much better games 1080p can look on 4tf xbox comparing to ps4/xones ? I don't think that the difference can be huge.
 
One thing I need to get clear tho, will the visual output quality of streaming match to the high end Anaconda? If so then you effectively pay only $299 or less for the quality of a $499 console but only by streaming, for offline gaming you're downgraded to the quality of a 4TF console. MS could then market both consoles as sharing the "same" experience and make it sound like no one is left behind but Anaconda would get you that experience any time any where.
The subject is with streaming you will have compression artifacts and an inherent lag of 250 ms or so that IMO will make games unplayable, but good enough for some people.
 
One thing I need to get clear tho, will the visual output quality of streaming match to the high end Anaconda? If so then you effectively pay only $299 or less for the quality of a $499 console but only by streaming, for offline gaming you're downgraded to the quality of a 4TF console. MS could then market both consoles as sharing the "same" experience and make it sound like no one is left behind but Anaconda would get you that experience any time any where.
Pretty much it, if the hybrid streaming is 1 a thing, 2 works.

Even if it doesn't do hybrid streaming its still not bad.
Thinking of it as a console that plays next gen games at the graphical quality that 1X could do if it was aimed at 1080/1440p.
At a cheaper price than the 1X.
1X couldn't play next gen games at the bare minimum due to CPU.

Next gen experience at cheaper price, lower quality. For many people that would be good enough to jump into rather than wait as long as they usually do.
It's one of the reasons I find 1TB ssd storage might be pushing price up bit too much to meet lower end BOM
 
Compute in a hybrid box makes sense for non-graphics work still. If a game uses compute extensively for physics and AI etc, a hybrid streaming box has to have enough to run the game engine locally. So 4TF for a streaming box might not be that ridiculous.
 
How much better games 1080p can look on 4tf xbox comparing to ps4/xones ? I don't think that the difference can be huge.

Probably the same difference as a 12 TF machine compared to a x1x.

4 TF is about 2x of the PS4 as the 12 TF high end spec would be over the X1X. Your effectively doubling the raw performance for both render targets. That’s before accounting for new architectural improvements.

Unless those architectural improvements are amazing or their is additional dedicated hardware for something like ray tracing, even a 12 TF machine won’t be a huge jump.
 
Compute in a hybrid box makes sense for non-graphics work still. If a game uses compute extensively for physics and AI etc, a hybrid streaming box has to have enough to run the game engine locally. So 4TF for a streaming box might not be that ridiculous.
Yea, I can't remember the details of the two projects they had.
But I'm sure one was running the game locally but at lower fidelity and combining it with the streamed HQ image.
Hybrid streaming would require running the game locally unlike normal streaming.
 
I think the advent of PS5/Xbox One Two will mark the death of hardware being a major differentiator as no one manufacturer will come out with a machine that is weaker than the other i.e. No repeat of Xbox One.
 
I think the advent of PS5/Xbox One Two will mark the death of hardware being a major differentiator as no one manufacturer will come out with a machine that is weaker than the other i.e. No repeat of Xbox One.
I also believe this. If the launch windows are aligned it’s highly likely that the power will be equivalent. Differentiation will come down to features and services, support etc.
 
I don't even think a 20-40% TF advantage would make much difference in the grand scheme of things personally. Not for Sony anyway.

Raw TF, very simular arch, wont be differentiaters.
Maybe hybrid streaming may make the cost to performance big enough for low end.

But it would be nice to see MS try to take a risk, AI accelerater, Denoiser, something I've been mulling over to raise in the RT thread is, general PT/RT that would work for things like RT, Object based audio, AI, or if the CU's could be customised enough to allow for it etc.

The chips are going to be used in their Racks also for both game and non gaming workloads so those types of customisations could make sense.

MS needs to produce some jaw dropping games even if they are shallow, 3P won't show enough of a difference.
At the moment the expectation is that all the consoles are going to be pretty simular though. MS will be ok, just competing on breadth of market more so than depth of console market.
As a tech junkie I would just like to see different things from both Sony and MS.
 
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