Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[iroboto]

I thought the original line of discussion about extracting performance was with regards GCN not getting optimal utilization on PC for various reasons. There was no reason to add nVidia to the comparison since it isn't relevant.

right.

 

[metacore]

My terminology may be short in the following. It's been awhile.

Are you envisioning a small amount (say 20-30GB) soldered to the board with its own dedicated channels? Or are you thinking a hybrid drive as the base model? I would have thought that an SATA connection wouldn't be fast enough for this to be realistic. If that is the case then someone help me out here. There are only so many channels available. What are the limits for PCIe connections on a Zen 2/3? Enough to have both a soldered high speed small NVme that is in all models and still have enough left over to cover an SSD? I ask because I really expect there to be a premium next-gen version available at release. Not in the PS4 Pro/ Xbox One X way, but in the XB360 way. The higher end model will have a decent sized NVme SSD. Enough to cache several games I should think.

Yeah something like AMDs HBCC so soldered. IF they would decide for something like this it must be well integrated with hardware, close to apu or secondary chip (if there is still one like in ps4) and OS, especialy for fast streaming of assets, sata sshd would't cut it.

Console APU probably won't use any pci links between cpu and gpu so avialable channels won't be a problem. Problem with optional m.2 speedy storage would be something different. To show those gains in loading times you need spare cpu resources to decompress those assets and any cpu in console will always be occupied, There might be methods such as metioned secondary arm cpu but we are getting to edge cases of priority here.

 

[anexanhume]

NVMe is nice but not necessary to see significant improvements in loading behavior. PS4 benefits greatly from SSDs even constrained by its SATA3 bus.

 

[Wynix]

How about a small Intel Optane + HDD?
If the results are applicable to a console, it looks like a viable option.

 

[BRiT]

Not cheap enough for mass adoption.

Intel's latest is just pushing NVME SSD under the Optane marketting brand, using ddr4 memory interface.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Given the results that Fuzedrive/StoreMI can achieve, I don't think the next gen will use SSDs exclusively.
I think we're likely to see 2TB+ HDDs with a 32/64GB solid state through PCIe for cache, plus another 2/4GB RAM for a lower level cache (depending on how much main system RAM they put in the consoles).

 

[DieH@rd]

Yeah, SSD cache is most likely what we will get. But even that is not guaranteed.

 

[Xbat]

I highly doubt there will be any SSD in the next consoles unless we talking $499

 

[anexanhume]

I highly doubt there will be any SSD in the next consoles unless we talking $499

MS may well be talking $499. And Phil Spencer specifically called out game load times as an area of improvement needed for next gen.

 

[iroboto]

i agree with the sentiment that $399 is the only reasonable price point. I think MS would rather wait until they can sell at $399 then moving earlier and selling at $499.
They both have mid gen refreshes already, they can afford to drag the generation out longer if they need to.

 

[Shortbread]

I highly doubt there will be any SSD in the next consoles unless we talking $499

I'm almost certain the magical $399 launch price is dead.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't see the value in postponing a $499 launch a year to sell the same hardware at $399. If you can get the $399 experience a year earlier at $499, go for it and sell to your biggest fans, establishing a userbase that bit earlier.

 

[ultragpu]

I got a feeling even if Sony can physically launch at 2019 with enough yield, reasonable price or whatever, their first party native PS5 games are just not ready for the launch day. Besides I don't think Sony want to cannibalize themselves on the software front, they still have 5 major titles (if including Days Gone and Dreams) to release from 2019 onward.

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

But that's arguably a great opportunity to establish the backwards compatibility of the PS5. Maybe even bundle a PS5 enhanced version of some of those big hitters as a means of justifying a higher price. $450 to play Ghost of Tsushima at 4K60 would entice plenty of people IMO.

 

[dobwal]

A year’s wait isn’t going to erase $100 off the price tag anyways. Even two years won’t allow that type of price drop unless we end in a recession and price of chips and memory crash.

$499 vs $399 is a choice that will dictate performance not timeline.

 

[DieH@rd]

I agree, 1 year difference will probably not allow access to new HW of significant performance difference. But they were rumors that AMD is producing Navi specifically for Sony, which may leave MS without access to best perf per watt.

On the other hand, 1 year is enough for new storage/memory density/cooling product to arrive [for example JEDEC-supported 4GB on a single GDDR6 chip... This happened with PS4 already, new memory type arrived just in time].

 

[anexanhume]

I agree, 1 year difference will probably not allow access to new HW of significant performance difference. But they were rumors that AMD is producing Navi specifically for Sony, which may leave MS without access to best perf per watt.

On the other hand, 1 year is enough for new storage/memory density/cooling product to arrive [for example JEDEC-supported 4GB on a single GDDR6 chip... This happened with PS4 already, new memory type arrived just in time].

JEDEC GDDR6 density allows for 32Gb already, so it’s up to someone to top Samsung’s 10nm 16Gb chips by then if someone wants 32GB in 8 chips.

 

[iroboto]

A year’s wait isn’t going to erase $100 off the price tag anyways. Even two years won’t allow that type of price drop unless we end in a recession and price of chips and memory crash.

$499 vs $399 is a choice that will dictate performance not timeline.

Fair enough. This is valid in that sense. Though we saw similar behaviour for 1X. And it’s motherboard from announcement to release stayed largely unchanged. It’s performance being largely the same as they announced it.

If price is higher it’s because yield is low. If yield is low and your launching a new system you’re going to get shortages because of demand.

The base doesn’t grow as fast, and exclusives targeting the new system have muted impact due to the smaller player base.

I feel like the goal is to incentivize transition from their old console to the new to spur spending. I don’t feel shortages or higher price points helps to encourage mass transition behaviour.

 

[dobwal]

Given the results that Fuzedrive/StoreMI can achieve, I don't think the next gen will use SSDs exclusively.
I think we're likely to see 2TB+ HDDs with a 32/64GB solid state through PCIe for cache, plus another 2/4GB RAM for a lower level cache (depending on how much main system RAM they put in the consoles).

If they were to add something like DDR4 to the hardware using it as a cache wouldn’t be better than just allocating that memory for OS and system usage and allowing the game to have complete ownership of GDDR5/6/HBM.

Adding enough DDR4 would allow the PS5 and X2 to expand fast main ram by 3-3.5 GB before adding more main ram than the current gen configurations.

 

[Liandry]

I have one idea.
2019 - Microsoft stop manufacture Xbox One S. Xbox One X price will be $299. All games will be made for Xbox One X and use all its capabilities.
2021 - Microsoft launch Xbox One Ultra. Games will be made for Xbox One X and Xbox One Ultra and will be sold on Ultra Blu Ray. On Xbox One X games will work in 4K 30 fps, on Xbox One Ultra games will work in 4k 60 fps and with improved graphics.
2025 - Microsoft stop manufacture Xbox One X. Microsoft will launch Xbox One Infinite. Games will be made for Xbox One Ultra and Xbox One Infinite and will be sold on Ultra Blu Ray. With all discs there will be download code for Xbox One Infinite, because console will not have disc drive. On Xbox One Ultra games will work in 4k 60 fps, and on Xbox One Infinite games will work in 8K 60 fps and with improved graphics.
2029 - Microsoft stop manufacture Xbox One Ultra. Microsoft will launch Xbox, device what will be always connected to server and games will be streamed from server. Games will be made for Xbox One Infinite and Xbox. On Xbox One games will work in 8k 60 fps. On Xbox games will work with best possible graphics and with best possible performance.