Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[Entropy]

PS5 will not compete with Pro ,because at current state Pro failed to bring enough ''satisfaction'' beyond only notable 4K resolution increase. IMO

It's true that the PS4Pro seems to have failed to generate much consumer enthusiasm, even though the only really hard data I'm aware of is from Japan. With backwards compatible consoles, what defines a new console generation is that new software doesn't have to be playable on the old hardware.
However, if the consoles are compatible with the previous generation, and if the difference in capabilities isn't big enough fo a truly compelling shift in capabilities, it makes sense for publishers to target the previous generation and its large installed base, and let the owners of the new generation enjoy higher resolutions and such. Which means that new content is still bound by the capabilities of the old generation and the value proposition of the new gen is worsened.

There is a bit of a balance to be struck in order for the new generation to take off.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Outside of Japan, everything I've read and heard online has indicated at the Pro being unable to keep up with consumer demand.

So without any real hard and fast sales figures from Sony, I doubt we can make any kind of assumptions about how much "enthusiasm" it has generated among consumers. All Sony has said up till now is that sales have exceeded their expectations (which I suspect were low and that they only manufactured a relatively small quantity in the first place).

Edit:
I have no evidence of this, but I've long suspected that the PS4Pro and PS4 slim APUs are the same chip and that Sony is speed binning fully working chips to sell as the Pro and fusing off defective ones to sell as the Slim in order to increase yields. This would explain the low production volumes of Pros out seemingly out in the wild. It would also mean they only needed to pay AMD once to do a single chip re-design to get the benefit for both PS4 Slim and PS4Pro.

 

[DieH@rd]

PS5 will not compete with Pro ,because at current state Pro failed to bring enough ''satisfaction'' beyond only notable 4K resolution increase. IMO

No, PS5 will not compete much with Pro because PS5 will get tons of exclusive games that will attract players. PS4/Pro will get only piece of PS5 games that dev deem can be managed with crossgen development, like we got in first year of PS4 [COD/BF/BlackFlag/AlienIsolation, MGS5, Titanfall...]

 

[Jay]

Outside of Japan, everything I've read and heard online has indicated at the Pro being unable to keep up with consumer demand.

So without any real hard and fast sales figures from Sony, I doubt we can make any kind of assumptions about how much "enthusiasm" it has generated among consumers. All Sony has said up till now is that sales have exceeded their expectations (which I suspect were low and that they only manufactured a relatively small quantity in the first place).

Agree, can be many reasons to why it's sold what it has (whatever that may be).
1. Doesn't seemed to have been marketed heavily
2. Low production
3. Low Demand

Only one I can say that definitely seems to be the case is 1., and that could be due to multiple reasons.

I have no evidence of this, but I've long suspected that the PS4Pro and PS4 slim APUs are the same chip and that Sony is speed binning fully working chips to sell as the Pro and fusing off defective ones to sell as the Slim in order to increase yields. This would explain the low production volumes of Pros out seemingly out in the wild. It would also mean they only needed to pay AMD once to do a single chip re-design to get the benefit for both PS4 Slim and PS4Pro.

I thought that the 4pro apu was about 30% bigger than the slims apu. If that's the case then there not the same.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

1. Doesn't seemed to have been marketed heavily

Only one from my personal view that I would say is the case is 1.

I thought Sony confirmed this.

 

[Jay]

I thought Sony confirmed this.

Possibly, I was just going by what I've seen (or not in this case).

Did they give any reasons why?
Maybe their just unsure how to market them both and don't want to negatively impact slim in anyway, and the slim is their money maker.
Maybe just waiting for yields to go up before ramping production up more, no idea.
Could be so many reasons why the sales figures are whatever they are....

Edit : Do we actually even know there low? Any real breakdown from npd etc

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm confident there's a quote from Sony about not pushing 4Pro. Or was it PSVR? They basically left the product(s) to sell themselves and didn't want to make a big splash. Yoshida said sales met (or exceeded) their expectations.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I'm confident there's a quote from Sony about not pushing 4Pro. Or was it PSVR? They basically left the product(s) to sell themselves and didn't want to make a big splash. Yoshida said sales met (or exceeded) their expectations.

It was about not pushing the Pro, because they didn't want customers thinking PSVR needed a Pro to work.
In the end, PSVR should've released at least half a year away from the Pro IMO.

 

[Prophecy2k]

I'm confident there's a quote from Sony about not pushing 4Pro. Or was it PSVR? They basically left the product(s) to sell themselves and didn't want to make a big splash. Yoshida said sales met (or exceeded) their expectations.

All I can seem to find are these quotes:

Yes, it’s selling very well. We were hoping that people who purchased a PS4 day one would upgrade to PS4 Pro, and people who have a 4K TV would see it as their console of choice.

We need more time to analyze the situation, but it seems that more people who are buying PS4 for the first time are choosing PS4 Pro. I think that’s driving a larger demand than we had anticipated. In many markets it’s sold out and hard to find.

Found: here.

And:

“PS4 Pro is running as we had expected, as we assumed, but Pro maybe is doing more than we anticipated,” Yoshida told investors

Finally, the CFO made a quote on the call that’s a bit hard to interpret. He said, “The sales of Pro are stronger than that of Slim, as we see it.”

Found: here.

Although on the latter quote, it's been speculated by journos that this could be a mistranslation based on PS4Pro Japanese and US sales, however, it could still be possible provided EU sales and the RoTW - however, unlikely since there's no reason to believe the Slim to Pro ratio in the US/Japan would be so out of sync with Europe and the RoTW.

 

[Entropy]

Outside of Japan, everything I've read and heard online has indicated at the Pro being unable to keep up with consumer demand.

So without any real hard and fast sales figures from Sony, I doubt we can make any kind of assumptions about how much "enthusiasm" it has generated among consumers. All Sony has said up till now is that sales have exceeded their expectations (which I suspect were low and that they only manufactured a relatively small quantity in the first place).

I don't know about "unable to keep up with consumer demand". Around where I live (EU country) it is in stock everywhere and prices have dropped.
We do know about the weak Japanese sales. Sonys reluctance to provide any kind of actual sales number doesn't inspire confidence either.

As far as next gen discussion goes, I think the take home message of the Pro is that the perceived difference between generations must be substantial in some aspect.

 

[Prophecy2k]

*snip*

As far as next gen discussion goes, I think the take home message of the Pro is that the perceived difference between generations must be substantial in some aspect.

I doubt the sales performance, or lack thereof, of the Pro will have any bearing on the next-gen consoles.

The problem inherent with stop-gap consoles like the PS4Pro and Scorpio is that they won't have any exclusive games to take advantage of that additional performance.

Alongside the fact that these are primarily marketed towards playing your current-gen games in 4k, and given 4k's limited adoption, it's really no surprise their sales are unlikey to set the house on fire.

Next-gen consoles have the benefit of having a games library that is exclusively available on those boxes. So irrespective of whether the next-gen is a traditional 10x increase in FLOPS or a more modest 3-4x bump in performance, they will do well precisely because they are the new generation with a new generation of games that players with old consoles will not be able to access unless they upgrade.

 

[London Geezer]

I doubt the sales performance, or lack thereof, of the Pro will have any bearing on the next-gen consoles.

The problem inherent with stop-gap consoles like the PS4Pro and Scorpio is that they won't have any exclusive games to take advantage of that additional performance.

Alongside the fact that these are primarily marketed towards playing your current-gen games in 4k, and given 4k's limited adoption, it's really no surprise their sales are unlikey to set the house on fire.

Next-gen consoles have the benefit of having a games library that is exclusively available on those boxes. So irrespective of whether the next-gen is a traditional 10x increase in FLOPS or a more modest 3-4x bump in performance, they will do well precisely because they are the new generation with a new generation of games that players with old consoles will not be able to access unless they upgrade.

But that's assuming that PS5/XB2 will actually have titles that are coded for their strengths, and not just spruced up current games at higher res, to fit into a theoretical backward/forward compatibility model. Which is a big question.

 

[Jubei]

But that's assuming that PS5/XB2 will actually have titles that are coded for their strengths, and not just spruced up current games at higher res, to fit into a theoretical backward/forward compatibility model. Which is a big question.

Isnt that where Sony and Microsoft will differ though? Microsoft will have backwards and forwards compatibility at the cost of true next gen graphics while Sony can use its first party studios to code specifically for the PS5 to showcase true next gen graphics at the cost of abandoning PS4 owners

 

[Prophecy2k]

But that's assuming that PS5/XB2 will actually have titles that are coded for their strengths, and not just spruced up current games at higher res, to fit into a theoretical backward/forward compatibility model. Which is a big question.

As far as I'm concerned, and given how emphatic Sony (and to a lesser extent MS) have been about their desire to adhere to the existing model of console generations, this isn't a big question at all. It think, at least Sony, has been very clear on this...

Backwards compatibility may exist with PS5 and XBTwo, but Forward Compatability simply won't be a thing. Otherwise, what would separate a theoretical PS5 with a PS4 Pro-2?

I'm surprised this is even being brought up again, as I would have thought that with the comments from Sony and MS about Ps4Pro/Scorpio, it was pretty crystal clear that console generations are alive and kicking and we won't be playing PS5 games on PS4/Pro/Scorpio.

I would at least feel safe making that inference.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Isnt that where Sony and Microsoft will differ though? Microsoft will have backwards and forwards compatibility at the cost of true next gen graphics while Sony can use its first party studios to code specifically for the PS5 to showcase true next gen graphics at the cost of abandoning PS4 owners

I'm not even sure MS will push forwards compatibility on their next console; especially if Sony doesn't, given that Sony is the market leader at the moment (and enabling FC for XB1/Scorpio would put it at severe disadvantage compared to PS5).

Forwards Compatibility on next-gen software would essentially limit the growth of new hardware in the marketplace. Sure it would be good for publishers and developers. But from a hardware maker's perspective, it's entirely not in their interests to pursue a kind of business model that would reduce the impetus for consumers to upgrade hardware for the sake of software partners, who will simply make cross-gen games like they do at the start of each gen anyway.

From a consumer perspective, it provides little to no benefit at all, beyond providing access to newer games on legacy hardware, however, in doing so you trade away technological advancement in game technology, design and ambition, reducing the benefit of upgrading to merely resolution and framerate increases that historically console gamers have cared the least about in the first place.

It's entirely counterintuitive to what Sony and I think (hope) MS want out of their console businesses.

 

[London Geezer]

The direction MS is going, with Scorpio allegedly being able to run original XB1 games at 4k and higher settings without the need of patches, like PCs have been able to do for centuries, lays the way to a forwards compatibility model that I'd be surprised to see them abandon in a few years. They can't go this way and then change completely with the new generation.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

They could probably handle that somewhat differently to tying their hardware up. With the new gen, devs target the new console and ditch the old console. Old titles run as BC on the new console.

 

[iroboto]

The direction MS is going, with Scorpio allegedly being able to run original XB1 games at 4k and higher settings without the need of patches, like PCs have been able to do for centuries, lays the way to a forwards compatibility model that I'd be surprised to see them abandon in a few years. They can't go this way and then change completely with the new generation.

agreed, the investment is too great to just throw away in such a short matter of time.

 

[Prophecy2k]

The direction MS is going, with Scorpio allegedly being able to run original XB1 games at 4k and higher settings without the need of patches, like PCs have been able to do for centuries, lays the way to a forwards compatibility model that I'd be surprised to see them abandon in a few years. They can't go this way and then change completely with the new generation.

agreed, the investment is too great to just throw away in such a short matter of time.

I maybe missing something here, but aren't you still talking about Backwards Compatability here?

BC = being able to play old games "updated" on new hardware.

Whereas:

FC = being able to play new next-gen games on legacy hardware, but with lowered settings.

The former isn't much different from what we've had in many console generations since their inception. Ok, with Scorpio we can now see titles natively up-rendered. I doubt that will change with XBTwo being able to up-render XB1 games to 4k or beyond...

...I'm not sure it follows thus that Scorpio and XB1 will be able to play XBTwo games.

BC like Scorpios would be great since it allows new hardware to be able to push old software to new heights without devs being required to go back and patch those old games.

FC (by the definition I give it above) would mean all next-gen games would have to be able to run on old legacy hardware, thus meaning devs would have to spend time tuning, testing and QA'ing their next-gen games for old consoles forever (down to a minimum hw cut-off). Meaning, software will inherently be held-back by weaker hw forever.

Not sure why anyone would want that.

 

[Jay]

They could probably handle that somewhat differently to tying their hardware up. With the new gen, devs target the new console and ditch the old console. Old titles run as BC on the new console.

If the ecosystem is the same between current (x1/scorpio) and next gen (x2) then what's the difference?
What I mean by ecosystem is store, live, etc.
Or do you think they will be different? I doubt that very much.

So if a studio believes a game can scale between x1 & x2, they develop it in BC mode as you call it.
If they think it's only possible on x2, then it runs in "native" mode.
In the end it works out hardly any different to having FC if
a studio is allowed to define the minimum console supported (which I assume they will be allowed to do)

I think that what's different going forward now is the ecosystem (for MS anyway). People always think about hardware defining next generation, but next gen games would have had to run in different ecosystem in the past.
But now I think things are different. That is what will blur the generations for MS.

They will probably even migrate development from x1 to uwp for consoles and make x1 legacy soon.
so games will just be Xbox uwp games, and labelled as such in store. You look under min requirements to know if your console is supported or filter games, if your browsing store from console it only shows you supported games.