Nintendo Switch Event 2017-01-12 and Switch Launch discussion

[BRiT]

If it is selling to play one game, the platform will die very quickly.

It's not that bad this first year. There's around 4 solid games for the Switch throughout all of 2017, all of them being rehashed IP. Not sure how 2018 looks though. It will be more telling to the Switch platform to see how well the games outside of the 4 main IPs sell. That will determine if 3rd parties embrace or extinguish the Switch platform in 2018.

 

[Goodtwin]

Its impossible to know what long term success will look like after only a month. Right now the Switch is supply limited, so the only thing we know for sure is there are north of 2 million people anxious to buy a Switch. Discussion about potential changes to the Switch will only make sense once the consoles sales begin to slow down. A dockless Switch isn't happening. If Nintendo stuck it out with the far more costly Wii U gamepad, there is no way they are ditching the dock. Its a big part of their marketing for the product. This years lineup of exclusives looks pretty darn good, and I am not convinced that we wont see a surprise at E3. Mario Kart 8 this month, Arms next month, Splatoon 2 in the summer, Fire Emblem Warriors in the fall, and Xenoblade 2 and Mario Odyssey for Christmas. This is a stead stream of games all year to keep consumers interested. Just by time the launch hype fades, Mario Kart 8 is there to boost it back up. This seems to be the plan all year. I know Mario Kart 8 is a Wii U port, but seeing as how only 13 million people owned a Wii U, it certainly has the ability to attract a new audience on Switch. The 3DS is getting long in the tooth for example, so perhaps Nintendo can transition a lot of those 3DS gamers to Switch, where games like Mario Kart 8 are brand new to them.

 

[Rangers]

I see it as the typical Nintendo, very few games, VERY long droughts. You cant count Mario 8 as anything, so that means you got Zelda and nothing for ages and ages and ages...

Some of my worst gaming days were as an N64-only owner. Months and months after the consoles launch with very sparse releases...

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I see it as the typical Nintendo, very few games, VERY long droughts. You cant count Mario 8 as anything, so that means you got Zelda and nothing for ages and ages and ages....

You can't count Mario because.....?

 

[BRiT]

IMHO, thats Not True. You can count Mario as 2 of the 4 main IP games being released this year: Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, then more Mario. I dont think I'd count any of the other game titles as being big draws, like Arms or Fire Emblem Warriors.

 

[mpg1]

Since Nintendo consoles have become a essentially become just platforms to play Nintendo games...it's literal success depends on how many "system seller" games they can put out. In my mind there is only Zelda and Mario Odyssey this year that people will actually buy the system in order to play the game.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

There is Mario kart as well. I know it's the wuu version plus some extras but since there's about 7 peopling who bought a wuu, for most it'll be a new game.

My girlfriend's sister bought a switch for Mario kart.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I still can't get a @#$#ing Switch. Although that's a good thing, I suppose, as I don't have a lot of time right now due to RL obligations.

If it is selling to play one game, the platform will die very quickly.

I disagree here. While Zelda is what got me originally interested in the Switch, I'm more interested in it now than I was before due to the massive support it is getting from indie developers. There's a lot of Switch exclusives either console exclusive (PC version as well) like Hollow Knight (IMO, best Metroidvania platformer of the past 10+ years, rumors of a WiiU version but their site doesn't mention it) or pure exclusive like Steamworld Dig 2 (Yay!). There's also a lot of multiplatform indie Switch games (like Binding of Isaac). There's a LOT of really good indie games either on the platform now or coming soon to the playform. Stardew Valley is going to be another absolutely awesome game to have available on a handheld that can also be hooked up to a TV.

I've got some friends that take their Switch with them to bed every night now instead of taking a tablet to bed. One of them plays Binding of Isaac in bed until she falls asleep. Before she used to play mobiles games on her tablet, but she finds "real games" as she calls them more compelling to play in bed.

I still really want a Switch for Zelda, but I want a Switch even more so for other games I can play on the platform.

I don't have a Switch so I can't see how accessible the eShop is on Switch. IE - How easy is it for an owner to discover new games on the Switch? I can certainly see core gamer interest possibly dying out unless they also like Indie games. But a lot of the people I know personally that got the Switch for Zelda have been transitioning to other games now that they've finished it.

[edit] Should clarify not disagreeing that if only one game on the platform is compelling that it would die. Disagreeing with the concept that Zelda is the only game people will want a Switch for even if they originally only bought it for Zelda.

Regards,
SB

 

[Goodtwin]

Splatoon 2 will be a system seller as well. It developed quite an audience on Wii U. In Japan Splatoons success had marathon legs, it was amazing how many weeks it charted well. With Nintendo consolidating its development onto a single platform, they will be able to much more effectively support the platform. Miyamoto commented not that long ago that Retro is ready for more than one project at a time, so I fully expect to find out that they are more than one project in development. Switch is an obvious transition for Vita/3DS developers, so that should be a given in terms of support. Nintendo getting Fifa on Switch was no accident, they know Fifa has a very broad audience. Fifa being on the platform may very well be more significant than any other game EA has to offer. Switch obviously isn't going to be the preferred system for AAA games. Fifa's audience is less likely to prioritize cutting edge visuals. Sports games in general should mesh well with a system like Switch.

 

[pharma]

Nintendo forecasts 10 million Switch sales this year

Nintendo's new unique Switch system sold 2.74 million in just 29 days and pulled in $822 million in global sales, offering a significant boost to the company's third-quarter financials. Now the Japanese console-maker plans to keep the console's strong sales momentum going throughout its 2017 fiscal year. Nintendo President Tatsumi Kimishima said in the latest financial results briefing that the company expects to sell 10 million Nintendo Switch consoles from April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018. "We are planning to ship 10 million units of Nintendo Switch hardware in the fiscal year ending March 2018. The cumulative total for units shipped through the fiscal year ending March 2018 will be 12.7 million units," Mr. Kimishima said in the briefing.

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/57306/nintendo-forecasts-10-million-switch-sales-year/index.html


Nintendo sold 2.3 million NES Mini consoles

In a recent interview with TIME, Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime confirmed the famously unattainable retro NES micro-console has sold 2.3 million units worldwide. In fact, the mini NES and its 30 classic games was only meant to be a holiday product but Nintendo extended its lifespan due to popularity. "We had originally planned for this to be a product for last holiday. We just didn't anticipate how incredible the response would be. Once we saw that response, we added shipments and extended the product for as long as we could to meet more of that consumer demand," the NoA President told TIME in the interview. Assuming every console shipped out sold at retail value, Nintendo made about $138 million on the NES Classic Edition.

Despite these impressive earnings Nintendo has discontinued the NES Classic Edition across all markets, and has no plans to re-release the hot 8-bit system this year. Fils-Aime says Nintendo killed off the NES Mini to "focus on the future."

http://www.tweaktown.com/news/57317/nintendo-sold-2-3-million-nes-mini-consoles/index.html

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Plans have changed then:

Nintendo to Double Production of Switch Console

Company plans to manufacture 16 million or more in year starting April 1, up from an initial plan for eight million

Sounds as if Nintendo were a little over-eager in response to early sales and now have better figures to predict long-term forecast.

Edit: Or the story was wrong in the first instance?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Maybe they can't make enough? One of the biggest stores in Osaka (which makes it one of the largest stores in the country) had a sign up this week that they didn't expect any new deliveries before June 16th.

 

[AlNom]

TSMC must be shocked.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Maybe they can't make enough? One of the biggest stores in Osaka (which makes it one of the largest stores in the country) had a sign up this week that they didn't expect any new deliveries before June 16th.

You mean Nintendo planned to double production to 16 million units this year but found they couldn't actually make more than 10 million? What would be holding them back, that apparently only came to light in the past month?

 

[Goodtwin]

I think the reports were simply inaccurate. The 16 million number never came from Nintendo, and this 10 million number seems much more reasonable. After 13 months on the market, Nintendo is suggesting about 13 million Switch units sold. That's nothing to sneeze at. If they can pull that off, that's a very strong start, and with price drops and strong software releases, Switch can sell well for many years to come. Nintendo continuing to sell the 2DS/3DS as their value offering helps carry some of the burden. Cutting off the DS line cold turkey would immediately put all their eggs into one basket, with a product that is a more premium product.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Looking further, it seems the plan was always to sell ~10 million this FY.
http://fortune.com/2017/03/17/nintendo-switch-production/

Nintendo, which had expected to produce 8 million Switch units this year, will boost that figure to 16 million units with hopes to sell more than 10 million units during the period.

The latest 10 million is probably the conservative end of that range for a safer financial forecast.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

You mean Nintendo planned to double production to 16 million units this year but found they couldn't actually make more than 10 million? What would be holding them back, that apparently only came to light in the past month?

Maybe they can't source enough screens.

 

[Entropy]

The earliest reports from the taiwanese supply chain was that Nintendo targeted 20 million units per year. A later article in digitimes stated that Nintendo had gotten cold feet and had scaled back orders to 10 million units.
So it would seem that Nintendo has regained their confidence. Remains to be seen if the supply chain can respond in a timely manner, but assuming that the reports of the initial targets were correct, it shouldn't be too tall an order. There may be sufficient supply for black friday and Christmas. Or not. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Eteric]

Double posting because apparently EA is getting on board. I get the feeling from the way they're talking that they think the Switch is the Wii audience again. I really don't think it is, to be honest. I hope they don't make the same mistakes they did with the Wii, and just give Switch owners normal Madden, NBA, etc. The Sims and PvZ: Zombie Warfare series would be welcome as well. Not expecting Battlefield or Star Wars, as that makes PS4/XB1 bleed out of their eyes. Hopefully they REALLY evaluate the system rather than just make assumptions.

http://gamingbolt.com/ea-is-excited...tch-looking-to-bring-more-games-to-the-system

Now I have to wonder if they get can get their Frostbite engine running and optimized for it. Nintendo worked with Unreal and Unity, hopefully they'd be willing to help EA get their engine up and running on Switch as well. It's still good news regardless, I just don't trust EA. Then again I don't think most people do anyway.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

The Frostbite engine scales relatively well on PC, so I imagine it shouldn't be that difficult to make a version of Frostbite engine based games work on Switch. You'd have to likely scale down the asset quality a bit to make it fit within available storage and memory, however. While I absolutely hate the modern Mass Effect games, I could see those doing relatively well on Switch. Hard to say whether more traditional shooters would find a large audience there, however.

One thing unrelated to EA that I'm seeing, however, is a lot of interest from people in indie games on Switch. There's quite a lot of people that have been wanting to be able to play more indie games on the go. One prominent YouTuber that I like laments the fact that the PS Vita never really got a lot of indie PC game ports despite being flooded by indie Visual Novel games and is very interested to see how that turns out with the Switch...if he can ever find one for sale (he checks 6-8 sites in the US every day morning and night).

Regards,
SB