Microsoft Xbox One X Scorpio Price Prediction and Reaction

[dobwal]

I would gladly pay $499.99 for the Scorpio if it comes bundled with State of Decay 2. Would probably buy it for $499 without but not without contemplation of whether I should wait or not for a price cut.

Gaming is still the only thing that can readily override my desire to be fiscally responsible (euphemism for being cheap). Gaming has me buying $150 controllers and contemplating purchases like A50s and shit.

 

[GrimThorne]

I don't think $499 is priced for market penetration.

$399-$449 with an amicable trade in option for existing X1(s) owners would be nice though.

 

[goonergaz]

"If I had to put money on" meaning if I had to place a bet.

I'd use that betting money to save towards a console that costs more than $400 if I were you.

 

[MrFox]

In light of the latest specs, I had to change my vote to 399. MS will have to take a loss on the hardware because I don't see how they can achieve their promised "obvious" visual differences from the Pro.

 

[mrcorbo]

In light of the latest specs, I had to change my vote to 399. MS will have to take a loss on the hardware because I don't see how they can achieve their promised "obvious" visual differences from the Pro.

The reveal of no double-packed math got you there?

 

[BRiT]

But it support FP16 and the ID Buffer extensions and obviously more ram and bandwidth.

*shrug*

 

[AlNom]

Eh, they'll need software to show differences, and that's an uphill battle for MS like driving the Mako in mass effect.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

The reveal of no double-packed math got you there?

Maybe MrFox calculated it using double packed FP16 math.

that's an uphill battle for MS like driving the Mako in mass effect.

Let it go!

 

[mrcorbo]

Eh, they'll need software to show differences, and that's an uphill battle for MS like driving the Mako in mass effect.

My thinking is this was always going to be a challenge. My question above is more to clarify that there was a belief that if Scorpio supported packed math it would have been able to show obvious differences, but now that we know it doesn't have that support, the belief is that it won't?

 

[goonergaz]

In light of the latest specs, I had to change my vote to 399. MS will have to take a loss on the hardware because I don't see how they can achieve their promised "obvious" visual differences from the Pro.

I said this day day - look at the issues Sony have pointing out PS4 to Pro and those differences are bigger. The only way it will be clear is on a super larger 4K set at close distance (IMHO) - which is why I'm confused why they would even say such things to begin with, over hype and under-deliver will not go down well.

 

[BRiT]

I said this day day - look at the issues Sony have pointing out PS4 to Pro.

The Xbox One to Xbox One Scorpio are much larger than the Sony delta, so it should be easier for MS to showcase.

 

[MrFox]

My thinking is this was always going to be a challenge. My question above is more to clarify that there was a belief that if Scorpio supported packed math it would have been able to show obvious differences, but now that we know it doesn't have that support, the belief is that it won't?

I never thought it would be as obvious as they claimed, but there was a good argument that even if it's somewhat a small difference, like between ps4 and xb1 with a lot of 900p vs 1080p (so maybe 1800p vs 2160p, or CB vs native, whatever it would end up with), the media hype and side by side comparison would have an impact to convince it costs a little more for a little more IQ. It was already a borderline proposition. For $50 more it would be well accepted as great value. Which was my guess.

Now it looks like the 45% advantage will be smaller, let's say it becomes 25% (made up number, I am guessing wildly), it's like 1800p versus 1900, on - consoles - which is already a market where not many gamers care about absolute performance.

If they take a small loss (like 50? 60?) on the hardware to get it down at the same price, they gain market share by offering more for the same price. There is no more comparsions where gamers ask "is this really worth $X more?" it becomes a no brainer advantage, a bullet point in a list of advantages without caveats. I think it's what caused the Pro to have a pretty average launch and gamers still prefer the lower cost slim. It's much more powerful and still wasn't worth $100 more.

I am only seeing this as an angle for MS to regain market share, regardless of how many upgrade to scorpio. Of course it will sell well to upgraders regardless, they are getting a bigger jump so it could be more worth the price than it did for ps4->pro.

 

[Jay]

Now it looks like the 45% advantage will be smaller, let's say it becomes 25% (made up number, I am guessing wildly), it's like 1800p versus 1900, on - consoles - which is already a market where not many gamers care about absolute performance.

i know your saying made up figure, but where are you getting this drop in performance or closing difference from?
it's not from lack of RPM is it?

 

[MrFox]

i know your saying made up figure, but where are you getting this drop in performance or closing difference from?
it's not from lack of RPM is it?

Yeah, RPM and also whatever sony gets from generating the ID Buffer "almost for free" which doesn't sound like it's the case for scorpio.

AMD have shown tressFX being twice as fast with RPM, but that's a stupidly cherry picked corner case. So I thought what if a game engine optimises all compute and physics to use RPM where applicable. Is a 20% gain unreasonable?

 

[mrcorbo]

Yeah, RPM and also whatever sony gets from generating the ID Buffer "almost for free" which doesn't sound like it's the case for scorpio.

AMD have shown tressFX being twice as fast with RPM, but that's a stupidly cherry picked corner case. So I thought what if a game engine optimises all compute and physics to use RPM where applicable. Is a 20% gain unreasonable?

Are you factoring in the potential for increased quality assets for the Scorpio version that are enabled by the increased memory bandwidth and capacity, and the faster I/O due to the faster included hard drive (which developers will be able to rely on always being present) and higher-clocked CPU?

 

[eastmen]

I am always wrong (look at me thinking $250 for the switch) But i'm thinking $400. Its a year later , the soc doesn't seem that mtuch bigger than the pros , it has 4 gigs more than the pro , UHD Bluray as Mr Fox points out isn't much more than bluray. The pro has also been on sale for under $400. So I think $400 might be a good base.

Drop the S to $200/$250 1TB/2TB drive so you have a $150/200 price diffrence

 

[goonergaz]

The Xbox One to Xbox One Scorpio are much larger than the Sony delta, so it should be easier for MS to showcase.

Except they stated Pro to Scorpio.

http://wccftech.com/ms-ps4-pro-power-difference-xbox-scorpio-obvious/

“I believe that the difference between what we’re going to deliver with Scorpio from a performance perspective and PS4 Pro will be obvious to customers,” Penello told IGN.

 

[BRiT]

Yeah, I dont know that they will be showing 4Pro to Scorpio as their main public selling material, but focus on One to Scorpio for their commercials and trade shows. They might still have some material showing 3rd Party differences between the two platforms but that would be reserved for dedicated websites like DF.

 

[goonergaz]

Yeah, I dont know that they will be showing 4Pro to Scorpio as their main public selling material, but focus on One to Scorpio for their commercials and trade shows. They might still have some material showing 3rd Party differences between the two platforms but that would be reserved for dedicated websites like DF.

Yeah, the difference from XBO to Scorpio I can imagine quite big - almost next gen at times I can imagine.

 

[Cyan]

Yeah, I dont know that they will be showing 4Pro to Scorpio as their main public selling material, but focus on One to Scorpio for their commercials and trade shows. They might still have some material showing 3rd Party differences between the two platforms but that would be reserved for dedicated websites like DF.

The more I read in DF about Scorpio, the more expensive I think it is going to be. From today's DF article:

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2017-project-scorpio-hardware-deep-dive

"The number of power states we have in the SoC - the Scorpio Engine itself - is eight CPU states, five GPU states, three for the memory,"

Ducting here is extensive: cooler air comes from the sides, with hot air blown out the back. Aside from the cooling advantage, there's a user convenience angle too - you can place another box on top of the Scorpio console and it won't block the heat exhaust.

A look at Scorpio's centrifugal fan. Air is pulled in from the sides and expelled out of the back of the console. This means you should be able to stack other components above and below the Scorpio console.

"We went to a custom designed adapted centrifugal fan for this design. It kind of looks like a super-charger on a car, it looks like an intercooler almost,"