Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]

[Silent_Buddha]

No, i was explaining why no stuff would be coming out in 2026 for Scorpio.

If MS wants to stay in the market, they would have to release their next box not long after PS5. I would expect 7nm shrinks of all current consoles.

Also, i find an idea of driver-less consoles sold at a loss entertaining, digital sales continue to increase(20%+ of the total, according to some reports), platform holders get more from a copy sold at their store, especially if it's their own game(100%), we could get $99 current-gen boxes and $399 next-gen boxes(with conventional model costing $499), the latter makes even more business sense, since the owner of it is likely spend more, much more, than the owner of a soon-to-be past-gen box.

Spoiler

But then again, why do anything, if the money go your way anyway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It‘s actually far higher than 20%. It was an approximate 30% industry average the last time something was officially mentioned by one of the publishers (EA), and that was over a year ago. Since then it has continued to rise, in some cases quite dramatically. And even back then certain publishers had digital sales far higher than 30% although certain publishers had lower than that to balance out the average. It`s quite likely somewhere in the 40-50% range now, with a possibility of it being higher than that.

Digital sales are only going to continue to rise unless something catastrophic happens, like the internet falling apart. Especially as console prices drop and more of your average consumer who prefers digital purchases enter the ecosystem.

Regards,
SB

 

[manux]

You're assuming that Microsoft won't release a new console at 7nm using relatively similar technology & price? If you think that Sony is planning to launch PS5 in 2019/2020 (with actual generational difference compared to Scorpio) then what makes you to think that MS won't release a 7nm version of Scorpio with much lower price tag (300-250$) alongside Scorpio 2 (which should be considered as PS5's direct competitor)?

if both sony and ms release similar 7nm console the relative performance difference from old sony platform to new platform is bigger. This would give bigger incentive for ps4/ps4 pro owner to upgrade than people owning scorpio. Sony is better aligned to have more balanced roadmap than microsoft. Microsoft also might have pricing difficulties as scorpio is likely to be either expensive or sold at loss. If ms&sony intend to bring in new 399$ 7nm console what is the pricepoint scorpio needs to be at or would it be discontinued?

 

[function]

7nm offers 3x the density of 16nm and a 65% reduction in power draw

Im not sure why you think Scorpio is even relevant in Sonys roadmap? PS5 needs to offer a big leap over PS4, thats all. And that will be available when 7nm and low cost HBM is available for mass production.. wich is late 2019

Best source I could find, 7nm is double density over 14/16nm.

https://www.extremetech.com/computi...unces-new-7nm-finfet-process-full-node-shrink

If you have a different source I would certainly be interested in seeing the details.

PS5 doesn't simply need to offer a big leap over PS4. That's assuming PS4 exists in a vacuum and that PS4Pro doesn't exist at all.

I have doubts that HBM (1/2/low cost) will offer better perf/MB or perf/MB/s any time soon. HBM is awesome, and has been for more than a year. But cost effectiveness has rendered it limited in use.

 

[eastmen]

I think MS won't force developers to leave behind any Xbox console from now on. Major AAA game developers may stop developing new games for older consoles but Indie game developers will likely keep making new games for them (as long as possible). And even the release of Xbox 4* (I mean Scorpio) and, few years later, Xbox 5 (Scorpio 2) probably won't be the end of Xbox One. Microsoft even has the opportunity to take the advantage of 7nm process and make a new hardware (a set-top box or maybe a hardware with Switch form factor, handheld console, etc.) with current Xbox One APU at higher clock.

*It's a really good time for MS to end it's inappropriate naming system for Xbox consoles. Also it will be a really good way to generate hype for potential buyers and present Scorpio as a next-gen console/hardware.

I think developers will leave the console when the platform makers stop selling them. I know there are older systems on the market but they start to become secondary consoles with no one really buying software for it. In 2026 can you imagine anyone still gaming on an xbox one or ps4 ? Esp if you add in BC to the mix. There isn't a reason to still use your xbox one if you can go out and get an xbox two for $100 or $200 and play all those old games and support your new tv or vr headset.

For AMD? You mean Global Foundries? AMD uses TSMC to fab Sonys chips. Apple is funding 7nm at TSMC so it will be available as early as 2018, holiday 2019 would be just fine for a 7nm PS5

So just to understand. TSMC which as we all know is super accurate with their roadmaps and have never had massive delays of micron shrinks or out right cancelations is going to have a ps5 level apu out in 2018. MS knows this but will still release a 16nm console in 2017 just one year earlier ? Sony is going to release a ps5 two years after the ps4 pro ?

Or option 2 , 2019 which is slightly more believable. So now Sony is on a 3 year cycle in your mind. Scorpio will be on in its 3rd holiday. So it would have sold 10s of millions at that point. But for some reason even if Scorpio is based on zen . they will not target zen in scorpio because its more powerful in ps5 ?

Why would they disregard one platform with an installed base vs another platform with 0 installed base ? Any developer would simply target scorpio and scale up to ps5 because they will sell more copies on scorpio and the hardware will be extremely similar. When 7nm is ready MS will also take advantage of it and scorpio will enter a lower price point which the ps5 will not be able to enter. So it will just continue to sell and be a viable platform.

Then MS can release a new xbox using 7nm tech also and developers can target scorpio and scale up to that xbox with ps5 in the middle.

I mean we can do this all the day and it just amounts to arguing that one of our dads can beat up the other ones dad.

Simple fact is developers will support scorpio no matter what its final hardware is because ms will sell tens of millions of them and since it will be x86 with a modern gcn gpu it will be realitivly easy to support. There isn't a reason not to suppot it

if both sony and ms release similar 7nm console the relative performance difference from old sony platform to new platform is bigger. This would give bigger incentive for ps4/ps4 pro owner to upgrade than people owning scorpio. Sony is better aligned to have more balanced roadmap than microsoft. Microsoft also might have pricing difficulties as scorpio is likely to be either expensive or sold at loss. If ms&sony intend to bring in new 399$ 7nm console what is the pricepoint scorpio needs to be at or would it be discontinued?

Why do you assume any of this ?

Scorpio will be a better system than ps4 pro. The only reason to buy a ps4 pro is if you can't live without sony exclusives. The gpu will be at least 40% faster , the cpu can be much faster , it might have twice the ram avalible for games and who knows what else is waiting in the announcements.

If you want the best gaming experience you buy an xbox scorpio in 2017 and beyond until a ps5 releases whenever it is.

 

[one]

And 7nm still won't allow a density advance that could make a PS5 have the jump over Scorpio that Scorpio has over PS4/XBone.

It may be enough to go beyond the jump Scorpio has over PS4 Pro.

Why would they disregard one platform with an installed base vs another platform with 0 installed base ? Any developer would simply target scorpio and scale up to ps5 because they will sell more copies on scorpio and the hardware will be extremely similar.

I have no idea what PS5 will be, but PS5 can be similar to PS4 and PS4 Pro too especially in terms of software stack including OS/platform API. If it's just a matter of changing the texture size/AA level/LoD level etc. by a slider on an game engine editor or an option in an automated art asset pipeline, the argument about the pain in scaling up games doesn't matter unlike the days of the transition between PS3/PS4. Especially when such treatment has been already practiced for PS4 Pro support.

Scorpio will be an interesting touchstone to gauge the effect of power/price difference/ratio.

1. Does the 1.5 times TFLOPS gain over PS4 Pro matter in consumer eyes?
2. Does the x$ price difference over PS4 Pro matter in consumer eyes?
3. Or is there any factor other than the power/price in the sales figures?

 

[eastmen]

It may be enough to go beyond the jump Scorpio has over PS4 Pro.

I have no idea what PS5 will be, but PS5 can be similar to PS4 and PS4 Pro too especially in terms of software stack including OS/platform API. If it's just a matter of changing the texture size/AA level/LoD level etc. by a slider on an game engine editor or an option in an automated art asset pipeline, the argument about the pain in scaling up games doesn't matter unlike the days of the transition between PS3/PS4. Especially when such treatment has been already practiced for PS4 Pro support.

Scorpio will be an interesting touchstone to gauge the effect of power/price difference/ratio.

1. Does the 1.5 times TFLOPS gain over PS4 Pro matter in consumer eyes?
2. Does the x$ price difference over PS4 Pro matter in consumer eyes?
3. Or is there any factor other than the power/price in the sales figures?

Right but scorpio would still fall between the ps4 pro and ps5. So unless sony only plans on supporting the ps4 pro for 2-4 years its going to continue getting support since it should in theory have the largest install base at the time of ps5 launch. When xbox three hits the ps5 should not be the most powerful esp if its a year after the ps5.

Also scorpio has more than just 1.5 times the tflops it also has more ram and most likely a more powerful cpu . But hey at least these new cycles will be interesting

 

[temesgen]

Right but scorpio would still fall between the ps4 pro and ps5. So unless sony only plans on supporting the ps4 pro for 2-4 years its going to continue getting support since it should in theory have the largest install base at the time of ps5 launch. When xbox three hits the ps5 should not be the most powerful esp if its a year after the ps5.

Also scorpio has more than just 1.5 times the tflops it also has more ram and most likely a more powerful cpu . But hey at least these new cycles will be interesting

We covered this countless times PS5 will have nothing to do with PS4 Pro, there isn't going to be any forward compatibility between those consoles.

 

[Nisaaru]

We covered this countless times PS5 will have nothing to do with PS4 Pro, there isn't going to be any forward compatibility between those consoles.

If that's the case it's either lack of forethought SW design or political. I can't see any reason why future consoles would branch off from current PC cpu/gpu designs anymore.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Simple fact is developers will support scorpio no matter what its final hardware is because ms will sell tens of millions of them...

I agree with all your argument except this assumption. You forecasting next-gen console like sales for Scorpio. PS4 Pro isn't anything like and, if treated as a 4K XB1, it's incredibly unlikely Scorpio will sell in huge numbers either. It's definitely possibly devs will pay as much attention to Scorpio as they do PS4 Pro, supporting it basically but not targeting it especially and quickly moving on when the rest of the industry does.

 

[Jubei]

Best source I could find, 7nm is double density over 14/16nm.

https://www.extremetech.com/computi...unces-new-7nm-finfet-process-full-node-shrink

If you have a different source I would certainly be interested in seeing the details.

PS5 doesn't simply need to offer a big leap over PS4. That's assuming PS4 exists in a vacuum and that PS4Pro doesn't exist at all.

I have doubts that HBM (1/2/low cost) will offer better perf/MB or perf/MB/s any time soon. HBM is awesome, and has been for more than a year. But cost effectiveness has rendered it limited in use.

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1330940

"TSMC described a 256-Mbit SRAM test chip with the cell density of 0.027 mm2 with full read/write capabilities down to 0.5 V. The node should provide up to a 40% speed gain, a 65% power reduction, and a 3.3x routed gate density increase compared to TSMC’s 16FF+ process now in volume production, said Michael Shien-Yang Wu, a senior director of N7 development at TSMC."

PS4 Pro does not have any exclusive games, its 2x tflop advantage does not get utilized to its maximum. Sony has always maintained that the Pro is still just a PS4.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

PS4 Pro does not have any exclusive games, its 2x tflop advantage does not get utilized to its maximum.

I think it does. It draws 2x the pixels or 2x the framerate.

 

[Jubei]

So just to understand. TSMC which as we all know is super accurate with their roadmaps and have never had massive delays of micron shrinks or out right cancelations is going to have a ps5 level apu out in 2018. MS knows this but will still release a 16nm console in 2017 just one year earlier ? Sony is going to release a ps5 two years after the ps4 pro ?.

TSMC has been accurate with their roadmaps for the last 3 nodes, what you fail to understand is that 7nm is important to Apple, a company that sells more hardware in a month than either Microsoft or Sony does in a year. And high margin product for that matter, not low margin consoles

TSMCs 7nm will use some of its 10nm technology wich is why it will be out in time. Samsungs 7nm will use EUV so it might be delayed and they have projected their 10nm to be a longer used node

 

[Jubei]

I think it does. It draws 2x the pixels or 2x the framerate.

I will have to disagree there. I think a game developed exclusively for Pro would do more than just 2x the pixels or framerate. Right now many people can barely tell the difference between the original PS4 and the Pro in some games. Pro simply offers a better experience of the same baseline PS4 game

Unless Microsoft backtracks on their word, Scorpio should be the same

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I will have to disagree there. I think a game developed exclusively for Pro would do more than just 2x the pixels or framerate.

How? How can PS4 Pro not only render the double the pixels (requiring double the flops) but also improve the visuals to a very noticeable degree such that everyone can tell at a glance whether a game is shown on PS4 or Pro? I guess some 16 bit shaders might improve things, but architecturally Pri and PS4 are basically the same. If the architecture is the same generation, where is the performance supposed to come from to make generationally superior graphics?

 

[Jubei]

How? How can PS4 Pro not only render the double the pixels (requiring double the flops) but also improve the visuals to a very noticeable degree such that everyone can tell at a glance whether a game is shown on PS4 or Pro? I guess some 16 bit shaders might improve things, but architecturally Pri and PS4 are basically the same. If the architecture is the same generation, where is the performance supposed to come from to make generationally superior graphics?

Why does it have to render double the pixels though? In reality Pro is still just a PS4, it was designed to render double the pixels as a way to differentiate from PS4 but all games are still designed for PS4 as baseline

With my hypothetical scenario, a Pro exclusive game does not need to render double the pixels, it can be 1080p with all the bells and whistles using fp16, bandwith compression etc to showcase noticably better graphics than PS4 games

 

[turkey]

With my hypothetical scenario, a Pro exclusive game does not need to render double the pixels, it can be 1080p with all the bells and whistles using fp16, bandwith compression etc to showcase noticably better graphics than PS4 games

So just like the games with 1080p pro mode where the developer chose to push pixel quality not pixel quality?

 

[Jubei]

So just like the games with 1080p pro mode where the developer chose to push pixel quality not pixel quality?

No. I mean a game built exclusively for Pro hardware, not a game with exclusive Pro features. Im saying no PS4 version, the baseline would be 4,2 TF and the rest of Pro specs

 

[Shifty Geezer]

No. I mean a game built exclusively for Pro hardware, not a game with exclusive Pro features. Im saying no PS4 version, the baseline would be 4,2 TF and the rest of Pro specs

That would get a game that looks like a PS4 game but runs at 60 fps instead of 30 fps. The only alternative is to create a 1080p 30 game on PS4 Pro and push the visuals, which would look better in some aspects for sure. I've lost what exactly's being argued now.

 

[Jubei]

That would get a game that looks like a PS4 game but runs at 60 fps instead of 30 fps. The only alternative is to create a 1080p 30 game on PS4 Pro and push the visuals, which would look better in some aspects for sure. I've lost what exactly's being argued now.

Eh this was never the main focus of my original post anyway so i rather not highjack the thread about it anymore

 

[Jay]

Why does it have to render double the pixels though? In reality Pro is still just a PS4, it was designed to render double the pixels as a way to differentiate from PS4 but all games are still designed for PS4 as baseline

With my hypothetical scenario, a Pro exclusive game does not need to render double the pixels, it can be 1080p with all the bells and whistles using fp16, bandwith compression etc to showcase noticably better graphics than PS4 games

the main reason that it wouldn't be a big difference if it was made from ground up for pro is that cpu, memory, bandwidth hasn't also been given a huge boost.
so the only things that you can do is what they do in pro mode.
better fidelity 1080p, higher frame rate, greater than 1080p.
4pro is good for what it was designed to do Imo, but a game made from ground up wouldn't be hugely different than pro mode.