upnorthsox
Veteran
I'm not presuming that......
Middle Generation Console Upgrade Discussion [Scorpio, 4Pro]
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They could also be waiting on Navi . MS money could bring Navi foward
You know what they say about throwing money at a problem.
Why build one when you can build two at twice the price ??
Anyway it depends on the timeline of Navi . If they do two designs like they did with Polaris and are rumored to do with Vega then MS might just need Navi brought forward a few months.
if Navi is 2018 because of memory type then it can be moved forward without that memory. After all Navi bullet point is scalbility and next gen memory tech. If that is AMD's next big change for their tech they would want it in the console world .
Would love to hear someone say this at an executive level meeting. Just lol.Why build one when you can build two at twice the price ??
As many have noted again and again. You don't make decisions that lead to a loss. Businesses take risk seriously, especially when risk has not netted them any large returns in recent history:
Kinect
XBO
Mine craft
Surface book
Surface hub
Hololens
List goes on. Budgets get tight if MS isn't performing. People talk like they have an unlimited war chest, that simply just is not true.
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GrimThorne
Newcomer
I'm reading these comments and while I can certainly appreciate the more tempered and modest speculations of what Scorpio will look like, I have to say that if there's no Vega, no Zen, no HBM then MS could have launched with whatever they had this year. It wouldn't have been difficult, and they wouldn't need to go 16-18 months to Holiday 2017 to launch Jaguar + Polaris + GDDR5 either. They can easily do that right now.
I don't pretend to know what Scorpio's final hardware will look like, but if they're doing something substantial then the extra lead time makes alot more sense.
I don't pretend to know what Scorpio's final hardware will look like, but if they're doing something substantial then the extra lead time makes alot more sense.
I was right with you, saw your list, then thought whoops what is he on?
your really reaching, you should've stopped at your first one, two possibly at a stretch.
what do you have to substantiate the rest? As I've not heard any of them being anything like your trying to portray?
unless your saying some big risks are worth it?
only other one you missed from list is surace.
It has nothing to do with unlimited money. It has to do with the amount of money it would cost vs what it would mean for scorpio to fail. It also has to do with AMD and its money situation. AMD is very strapped for cash . MS money can put more engineers on Navi to bring it forward and depending on time lines they could have put more engineers on it for up to a year.
Also Navi being in the next xbox would devs targeting the next AMD tech which should translate into better performance on the pc side.
Of course that doesn't mean its going to happen
Then again wtf is up with your list
Kinect 1 sold over 20m units at $150
Xbox one is getting close to 30m units
Minecraft continues to sell extremely well , they just surpassed a 100m copies I believe , the toys sell well , they have the new education program based on it
Surface book is selling well . Its a first generation product
Surface Hub is a 40k device for business and is selling well
HoloLens released as a dev kit and is doing well in that regard.
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Where did you get that from, oh wait don't tell me
GrimThorne
Newcomer
So success is not necessarily defined by flopping. The goals of the business is meant specifically to expect a certain rate of return even if the end result is not negative, the capital put forward by the program could have been better spent elsewhere.
It has been reported that, mine craft
http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2016/06/09/how-fable-legends-took-down-lionhead
, Xbox, and Kinect V2 have allegedly missed their mark. As for surface hub they've been delayed for quite some time on shipments of their product. I can't say more on this but I do recall developers personal contacts of mine having some annoyance with this product.
Surface sells. I may have misstep stating book isn't selling nearly as much as surface itself. Recent numbers show it's still growing in sales.
Hololens hasn't sold anything yet. I just want to be clear. These aren't flops. But that doesn't mean they are successes yet either. The money is being to grow it but you can't have unlimited amounts of money to invest in projects that aren't bringing back revenue.
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which would be correct, wouldn't be misleading either.
all you could say is would be nice to have breakdown of numbers.
if your talking about how he got to 30m, I don't remember seeing Ms doing forecasting as you've just said, if anything they don't and wont give out numbers. Pretty sure you can find the range on the net from 15m-30m odd though haha
The difference between launching with those specs this year and next year could be several hundred dollars in price
by the same token they may be successful if they've reached their goals what ever they may be.
they've just not met your goals, unless you can show where they've not met ms's, short or long term goals.
given what we know about HoloLens, have no reasons to suspect its performing substantially bellow where they expect, same for Surface Book, Minecraft after the initial bulking over how much they paid, I thought most people thought it was a successful and good deal, or definitely not in the light you placed it?
anyway, I was with you until I saw that list that's all, this is ot.
GrimThorne
Newcomer
yea its OT. I didn't mean it to be. I have some experience in dealing with gating and capital expenditure processes here, so it was wrong of me to project that into this discussion as I'm not a full expert on the subject; I drew on some limited accounting experience on rates of return on capital and rate of profit to make some assumptions on how these projects are likely not at target given what we can ballpark the large capital investment in all of them.
That being said, the purpose of my post wasn't to indicate that MS was doing anything wrong, but that we [eastman] should not be Blue Oceaning what Scorpio is or could be. All projects regardless of what they are, undergo heavy risk analysis, phased gating to financials, and some form of expected rate of profitability. Essentially how targets are set and whether targets get approved. This is MS core business. They likely have a very long and effective process in determining the success of their investments in capital or they would be a failing business already.
My arguments have been weak, no doubt, I don't disagree with you there and I apologize for having given them (it would appear I make poorer quality posts when I post from my phone while commuting on the train), but my purpose is clear: unless we have factual and real information about Scorpio hardware, this blue ocean business also needs to stop. Eastman is still very much (having read his past posts) projecting his values that power is king in console land, his arguments for xbox tend to circulate around this notion (why XBO failed, why Scorpio will succeed, his desires to distance Scorpio from Neo hardware), and yet I think many people would disagree with that sentiment - and the argument itself is still not relevant to Scorpio.
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