Post Xbox One Two Scorpio, what should Sony do next? *spawn* (oh, and Nintendo?)

You are assuming they can launch in november. I am assuming they cannot.

Better launch in March than waiting until november 2017. Which is exactly what Sony did when they launched the PS2 in March.
It depends on what New PS4 actually is, if it has the DF's specs(which is the most likely scenario), there is no reason for it not to launch this Fall.

What sony really should not do is to do a reset. Resetting the cycle let's other players come back into play as whatever was isn't anymore. Sony should really take a note from how smartphone, tablet and desktop markets work...
Exactly, hardly anyone want a reset any time soon. And when it happens, Scorpio will get skipped either way, whole market will just jump over it. MS should be fully aware of this, which is why Scorpio will probably have... Jaguar cores, say hello. It's like the only chance to fit Vega in an APU, if it's possible at all, and APU(looks like it) on their rendering looked to small even for Polaris10.

Meanwhile streamers will all talk up the superior Scorpio.
This is a damn good one! :mrgreen:
 
Microsoft is the one with the 2/3rd power, less ram, and less bandwidth hence cheaper to produce console with the Xbox One S. So MS will have the cheaper bargain market covered as well as the power-performance market.
Don't forget that BOM of PS4 is in fact lower than xbox one in 2013.Why can't Sony design a slim PS4 which has the same BOM as xbox Ones?
 
I agree with the majority of this and its a really well written post.

If sony goes with a 4.4tflop console based on the ps4 with only 8 gigs of ram then even a 12 gig upgrade on the scorpio will show a notable texture quality difference. If MS goes to 24 or 32 gigs of ram the quality difference in textures will be quite transformative. That is before any difference in hardware. We don't know what the difference between vega and Polaris is . But if MS is using Vega that is a newer architecture which may be more efficient and better designed.

Sony could run into trouble if the spring release is correct because during their launch of neo they will have MS talking and showing Scorpio .

How will sony combat that ? Whats more , what does MS have in the pipeline to show off Scorpio. Halo isn't the franchise it used to be ,but a halo running a 6tflop machine with tons of ram will look stunning. An upgraded Crack down on it will be amazing.

Sony will have to market against these forces with a difference of as little as 6 months between launches and with tight price diffrences.

Not to mention they have to get the message out about psvr too.
You discuss MS in the best scenario. Let's talk some more reasonable case.

First, if next xbox has 24GB RAM then it may cost 499 or more.

Second, in 2017 Halo and Gears may not have a new main installment due to short development period. However, Sony's GOW and GT may launch early.

Third, in the next 1 1/2 years Sony probably launches a slim PS4 to compete with xbox ones in the same range of price. PS4 slim and NEO can widen the gap to xbox one.

When next xbox launches in winter 2017, the gap between PS4 and xbox one may be widen to about 30~40 million. Even Neo can't compete but PS4 slim in the cheaper price can compensate for the sales.
 
you think MS will put out a $600 + console ? Microsoft who got destroyed by the press and fans for releasing a $500 console 4 years prior ?

Scorpio is going to come in as close to $400 as they can get.

So to clarify, just over a year after releasing a matured tech with 1.3TF @ $300-$400 dependant on HDD size you think they will release a brand new tech machine ~4x the power with 50% more memory at just $400?
 
Interesting, most of the commentary seems focused around, Neo being cheaper, faster to market, better games etc. These are all topics on how Sony beats MS. None of the commentary touches on how Neo is or isn’t a great product for Sony’s existing customer base in which I see Neo as terrible product for their line. Sony’s lack of communication is a red flag to any consumer as Sony is usually very strong with their communication plans. Neo’s specifications are generous for a mid-level upgrade except Microsoft’s bold move to skip a level straight to 6TF makes Neo appear woefully out of place. Lastly, their continued drive to release Neo delays any chance of PS5 arriving sooner. These three factors combined are proof that Neo is hard to market and it is in my opinion that Sony’s best move is to delay/cancel Neo entirely and just make it into PS5.

In short, the Neo is not required, I see no reason why we can't just plod along with the PS4 and Xbox One for the next 2-3 years before looking into a successor. But it is coming, just like thre Scorpio and we have to look at whether it has a place or not.

Sony has been purposefully quiet about Neo and is currently stuck between a rock and a hard place about how to communicate Neo itself; their hype filled E3 Experience with a live orchestra fell flat with a missing Neo ending to their presentation. Before E3 they announced Neo in a fashion less spectacularly than Nintendo; yes, I’m talking about the executives confirming Neo’s existence and launch this year during an interview, but failed to show it at an official announcement because the games weren’t ready to show it. This is from a market leader with a global market lead of massive proportions failing to deliver an announcement on the biggest stage of gaming. The response from Sony was, “I didn’t expect MS to announce Scorpio so well in advance (18 mo), we didn’t announce Neo because the games aren’t ready yet [for Neo]”.

I agree, it was obvious that it was missing from E3, but personally feel that Sony was only going to announce it as a mid-cycle refresh with a bit more power to boot. But then Microsoft dropped the Scorpio-bomb and Sony must have panicked. I feel that the Neo pre-E3 wasn't going to be pushed as the be-all-and-end-all, but a refresh and premium product. So probably didn't need all the glitz and glamour.

Imagine a smart layman who understands resolution and framerate. There are only 2 types of TVs I can own today, 1080p and 4K. That person can either own a PS4, or want to buy into Sony. Neo is released and it costs more than PS4. What questions would that layman ask?

Q: So why would I buy Neo it costs way more than PS4.
A: Games will look better on Neo, and have a 1080p minimal resolution requirement, games will look better on Neo, and some games might have better frame rate.

Well, what's way more? $100 more?

To be continued.....
 
...continued

Q: Okay, so PS4 does 1080p for almost all titles already, so that’s not a big difference to me. And if this device can’t do 4K, explain to me how games will look better, and will all games have better frame rate?
A: Well, I need to show you the games running side by side PS4 vs Neo to show you how games look better, and frame rate will depend on the game, so I can’t tell you exactly today which games will have higher frame rates.

Resolution isn't everything. You can still show the same game at the same resolution but have it looking better. Better textures, Better geometry, Better framerate, Better shadows, Better effects. Also, I am in no doubt that the Neo can do 4K. Don't get me wrong, it will struggle to do 4K natively for games, unless it reduces geometry and framerate etc, but I see no reason why it couldn't do 1440p and upscale to 4K or even downscale to 1080p.

Q: So is this device for PSVR? Because you said that all games for PSVR run 60 and works perfectly for PS4.
A: Neo will run all games in 1080/60 in PSVR. But so does PS4. But Neo games will look better, once again, we’ll need to show you the two games running side by side.

Yes, in my opinion, the Neo is primarily to make the PSVR experience so much better. I am in no doubt that PSVR will look good with the PS4, but should look so much better with the NEO. Again, won't be down to framerate, but providing better geometry, draw-distance, textures and effects to make the difference between PS4 and Neo.

And there is the inherent problem. In order to justify Neo’s worth, you need to run it side by side to PS4. Just think about what a disaster that is for their marketing department; how BAD would it be if your audience you are selling it to are having issues seeing the differences in quality between a Neo and PS4 title. So there better be a noticeable difference between how games look on PS4 and Neo right? Of course there will have to be, or you would just buy a PS4. Let’s not even dive into discussion of whether Sony should start looking at whether the gap between the Neo and PS4 version of a title is large enough during certification.

The problem for marketing is to make sure the PS4 is sold as a great experience while the Neo is sold as the best home console experience. Believe me, I see no reason why there won't be quite a big difference between PS4 and Neo versions. No doubt there will be big enough differences for Digital Foundry.

Neo is not in trouble because Scorpio is a MS product, Neo is in trouble because Scorpio will exist within 12 months of Neo’s launch. If Scorpio did not exist, no one would know that a 4K native console device could actually be available in holiday 2017. Everyone would have taken it for granted that greater than 2x the PS4s power would be the norm for the next console gen. 1.5 or whatever you want to call it. It’s entirely possible that Sony expected MS to follow suit.

4K native console.... Scorpio will struggle to produce 4K native gaming with any extra visuals over the Xbox One version, and don't expect to see 4K@60fps on the Scorpio.

The rebuttal that when PS5 comes it will crush Scorpio is pointless, because that’s not what Sony is actually worried about. The issue is that Sony will take 2 generations of hardware to get to 4K native when their competitor will do it in 1, and there is no messaging or communication you can wrap around that to make that sound good to your existing customer base. If you’re a Sony fan you’re going to wait a long time for 4K native, let me explain.

Let’s look at the product release timeline with pricing:
PS3 2006 - high fidelity gaming; $499/$599
PS4 2013 - HD gaming 1080p; $399
Neo 2016 - 1080p 2x better looking HD gaming; $499?
PS5 2019 - 4K UHD gaming ?? $499??
So if that schedule looks way too tight and likely to blow up your good will with your customers the simple answer is to delay PS5; and there it is, you’re going to wait a long time for 4K native.

As someone who owns a launch PS4, you’ve got to be thinking, 6 years is a long wait for 4K UHD, those guys at MS have 4k UHD native gaming in 2017 (4 years). I’m going to have to use my launch PS4 for at least 6 years to get it, likely we’re looking at 7-8 years. And if you were a sucker to buy Neo, in a short time frame after you’d be asked to buy into PS5 to get that 4K experience.

4K native....is that the buzz word of the month? We are nearly 3 years in this generation (PS4/XBox One) and we are just getting to the point where games are becoming 1080p native. We were promised 1080p FullHD native gaming when the PS3 came out yet very few games supported it....we are now 10 years down the line and just about getting there. 4K TV's in houses are not mainstream yet and won't be for at least another 2-3 years. Assuming the Neo is released in November this year, then I fully expect a backwards compatible PS5 to release in November 2019.

Neo is a mistake and Sony has not done their customer base any favours. Games will have to look significantly better than PS4 to be able to justify it’s own worth, and it also pushes out PS5 and 4K because you don’t want to launch 3 consoles in < 10 years.

In my perspective, Neo is simply a fan service device whose core purchasers are members with high dispose income that are Sony through and through. It’s actually a really bad device for Sony customers given the politics that surround it. Neo unfortunately became a reality when it was leaked and MS announced their Scorpio to be released 18 months from today. If Neo was never leaked, it’s possible Sony could have went back to the drawing board entirely.

We won't know if the Neo is mistake until it's been on the market for 6-12 months. As I've said before, I reckon the games will look considerably different. Microsoft has just annouced the Xbox One S, which is a mid-cycle upgrade.....HDR, 4K BR....those are extras over the basic Xbox One...and when the Scorpio releases in 2017, means that Microsoft have released 3 consoles between 2013-2017?

The Neo is there to help sales of the PSVR IMHO. Personally I don't see an issue with it. Although ideally, it needs to be released this calendar year and be $399 at the most. The Neo will help prolong the life of the Playstation brand in its 4th iteration.

At the moment, PS4 sales are double that of the Xbox One, I expect One S's to sell well due to the 4K BR drive, but most people will wait until the cheaper $299 model is released, whenever that is. By then, I fully expect the Neo to be announced and release at $399 with the PS4 reducing in price to $299 to put the Xbox brand again. I still expect Playstation sales to be much higher WW than Xbox and we could see PS4/Neo combined sales of 70m+ by the time Scorpio releases on the frenzied. Xbox will probably be only around 30-35m at this point. And seeing as people are buying in each ecosystem with digital sales etc, it will be harder for consumers to move from PS to Xbox when Scorpio releases. This is my point. Sony are trying to tie up consumers early to the PS ecosystem and the Neo allows them to be the best, most powerful home console for a year until the Scorpio is released.
 
So to clarify, just over a year after releasing a matured tech with 1.3TF @ $300-$400 dependant on HDD size you think they will release a brand new tech machine ~4x the power with 50% more memory at just $400?

Exactly. I still believe that Microsoft is losing money with the XBox One S, especially the $299 version. I'm sure the 4K BR drive must push up the BOM cost considerably. Also like to said, if people honestly expect the Scorpio to release with a 4x the power with between 12-24GB of GDDR5 memory for $399, then unless MS wants to lose a crap-load of money, it will not happen.
 
So to clarify, just over a year after releasing a matured tech with 1.3TF @ $300-$400 dependant on HDD size you think they will release a brand new tech machine ~4x the power with 50% more memory at just $400?

Yep the pricing of the Slim it´s really stiff, but they are launching early with all of the new media capabilities and they have a truckload of Ones to sell in order to clear the channel.

In one of the interviews, an Ms exec (i don´t remember who) specifically talked about "traditional console prices" i didn´t get the impression that scorpio was going to be a really expensive machine, they are targeting Holidays 2017 for a reason
 
Yep the pricing of the Slim it´s really stiff, but they are launching early with all of the new media capabilities and they have a truckload of Ones to sell in order to clear the channel.

In one of the interviews, an Ms exec (i don´t remember who) specifically talked about "traditional console prices" i didn´t get the impression that scorpio was going to be a really expensive machine, they are targeting Holidays 2017 for a reason

And people are complaining about Neo upsetting PS4 owners - imagine how upset folk will be when a $400 Scorpio hits. I'm not saying it'll be expensive by the way, I'm just saying more expensive than Neo (likely $500) as logic suggests anything under that will cost MS. And if slim price isn't 'stiff' then why not plug the gaping hole of sales today and stem the flow of migration to PS4?
 
I'm sure the 4K BR drive must push up the BOM cost considerably.

The existing Xbox One Bluray drive is already faster than the 128Mbit/s required for UHD Bluray.

Cost increases can come from APU, RAM and storage (flash ?). MS has some catching up to do when it launches, so a subsidized sales price is plausible, IMHO.

$400 would be a good price for consumers :)

Cheers
 
The existing Xbox One Bluray drive is already faster than the 128Mbit/s required for UHD Bluray.

Cost increases can come from APU, RAM and storage (flash ?). MS has some catching up to do when it launches, so a subsidized sales price is plausible, IMHO.

$400 would be a good price for consumers :)

Cheers

The existing Xbox One drive is more expensive than PS4 drive. And regardless of speed it still cant read UHD triple layer discs, its only logical to assume its more expensive than the existing drive

As for Scorpio price, the only real information we have is from Phil Spencer saying it will be "premium price". There are a dozen other words he could have used if it was going to be "cheap"

affordable, competitive, high value for good price. Premium? Not so much. Nobody said the PS4 399 price was premium when it launched
 
In short, the Neo is not required, I see no reason why we can't just plod along with the PS4 and Xbox One for the next 2-3 years before looking into a successor. But it is coming, just like thre Scorpio and we have to look at whether it has a place or not.
Agreed, it’s an interesting time to discuss and advance the discussion. One of the difficulties I’ve been noticing in this particular topic is that there are 3 contexts that are often used interchangeably during discussion, but are separate matters: marketing, value to the customer, technical capability.

In my post, I tried to stay as close as possible to the marketing context, and so often the replies to my message if they went into ‘value’ or ‘technical’ I generally avoided responding as they weren’t incorrect or invaluable, but they weren’t discussing the same topic I was.

I agree though, Scorpio needs to be discussed as well, in this topic I tried to look at Neo in pure isolation, mainly because my state is that I assume customers buy into an ecosystem because of their games, and if it’s strictly due to power, then these individuals would flip flop regardless, and therefore it would be pointless to discuss them as their behaviour goes towards the power leader. So the question for me would quickly become about the larger Sony base and whether Neo was a good product for them.

I agree, it was obvious that it was missing from E3, but personally feel that Sony was only going to announce it as a mid-cycle refresh with a bit more power to boot. But then Microsoft dropped the Scorpio-bomb and Sony must have panicked. I feel that the Neo pre-E3 wasn't going to be pushed as the be-all-and-end-all, but a refresh and premium product. So probably didn't need all the glitz and glamour.
Neo is worth the glitz and glamour, and I believe that they were in fact waiting for the games to showcase it’s power, however the challenge they face is that better looking titles are subjective and per title; it’s clear to all customers that not all titles would be equal in how much better they would appear on Neo. They probably noticed the challenge they were facing there when going up against ‘4K native’ which is both a specification and by default, objective.

As many have noted earlier, marketing is not difficult when the product can sell itself; technical checklists tend to be a strong form of marketing, as you either have it or don’t. Whether it’s a better product because more boxes are checked, well, you and I and many B3Ders know better than this. But that’s a separate topic than the messaging itself. The prominence of the internet helps inform users here much more than before, but topics such as draw distance, texture quality, AF, AA etc, AO, etc are topics that are probably well into enthusiast territory. These become more difficult to explain to the masses as to why it matters or whether they can even spot it.

Well, what's way more? $100 more?
To be continued.....
This is an interesting point, I guess this lies in marketing. The price is supposed to dictate demand, and in my second response I posted a price/value matrix to indicate what I thought the market would do depending on both where price and perceived performance would land.

To summarize, if Neo is visibly and noticeably better than PS4 and a significantly cheaper price, that would draw everyone to buy a Neo. A success for sure. But everyone would have to turn over their PS4s. That would be a beginning of the end of the PS4 generation as everyone would migrate to the visually stunning Neo. I’m unsure if people would be happy with that, fairly certain good will would be lost with some customers. There are a variety of markets who make up their purchasing base, but at the top of my mind I would assume price sensitive customers and parents (who bought for their kids) would be pissed off by that, or anyone that just got into the platform.

If the graphics were to provide 2x the graphical power (full use of 4.xx TF at 1080p) then would it be incorrect to double the price compared to PS4? It is double the performance right? Would the market see this as unfair? I think not. If the price is 1.5x but performance is 2x, then you’re looking at a great deal for the buyer.

Looking at GPUs, they are priced in exactly such a way that TF seems to align very closely with price. Once again not sure what Sony’s play will be here on pricing.

I guess it really depends on how many units Sony wants to sell.

I’ve determined that it should fall between 449-699. Based on the above points.

...continued
Resolution isn't everything. You can still show the same game at the same resolution but have it looking better. Better textures, Better geometry, Better framerate, Better shadows, Better effects. Also, I am in no doubt that the Neo can do 4K. Don't get me wrong, it will struggle to do 4K natively for games, unless it reduces geometry and framerate etc, but I see no reason why it couldn't do 1440p and upscale to 4K or even downscale to 1080p.
I don’t disagree at all, if you read some of my ramblings up and about this forum I’m more interested in seeing 1080p with more stuff on than to see 4x more pixels. At a certain point in time resolution can only do so much, especially when we see things like really low resolution shadows for instance. But to someone who only understands say ‘Hi-Fi’ setups and is looking to maximize their 4K TV investment, I see their priorities as being different.

Yes, in my opinion, the Neo is primarily to make the PSVR experience so much better. I am in no doubt that PSVR will look good with the PS4, but should look so much better with the NEO. Again, won't be down to framerate, but providing better geometry, draw-distance, textures and effects to make the difference between PS4 and Neo.
Right, once again on this note, I totally agree from a value perspective here, there are less difficulties marketing Neo as being the ultimate PSVR device. But they wedged themselves into a hard spot when they announced PSVR for PS4, released its spec and took pre-orders without letting people know Neo was coming. People bought in expecting to use their PS4 with this device.


... continued lol character limits
 
... continued

The problem for marketing is to make sure the PS4 is sold as a great experience while the Neo is sold as the best home console experience. Believe me, I see no reason why there won't be quite a big difference between PS4 and Neo versions. No doubt there will be big enough differences for Digital Foundry.
I touched on this aspect earlier, but with some of your post below I’ll continue on this conversation after the next part.

4K native console.... Scorpio will struggle to produce 4K native gaming with any extra visuals over the Xbox One version, and don't expect to see 4K@60fps on the Scorpio.
Right, and I purposefully didn’t want to get into Xbox just yet, just to separate the discussions perhaps some people took it as bias, but this was actually a strong indicator for me and what MS was trying to do with Scorpio. Your point is valid and it didn’t take long for everyone here to figure this part out. 4K native of a Xbox One game probably requires Scorpio. There’d be very little difference in look except texture quality (assume 4K textures) and resolution (4k).

Interestingly enough, this came off as bad messaging. Many journalists wrote about this and we have another thread based upon how Shifty and others thought that was bad messaging; when Spencer said if you have a 4K TV get Scorpio, otherwise get an XBO. And it wasn’t until a lot of pressure did he fuss up a generic response, it’s up to the developers to do what they want with the power. And the internet proceeded to crucify Spencer on this flip flop messaging,

And it would probably take some time to write out a good post about this, as it could be lengthy, but since we’re discussing it, here at my thoughts at the moment. (this is a technical context)

Scorpio is not a next gen device for MS. It is meant most certainly to attack the 4K market, and for the most part it will run settings very similar to XBO, so that the two run in parallel. It’s spec sheet and how it’s been marketed (originally) all align to this. They have a device prepared for the upcoming 4K shift in television sets. This actually comes off as boring. It would appear among gaming enthusiasts and developers; would rather see higher frame rates and more graphical options (Neo). But such is the cost of 4K resolution. 4x more pixels than 1080p.

When I look at Neo, if all that GPU is dedicated towards better graphics at 1080p then you’ve got an even larger issue with PS5. Mainly, to keep the offering of Neo but at 4K native resolution, you’d need 4.xxTF x 4 = a 17-18TF SOC. Would that be available in 2019? I’m not so sure as that’s a pretty big number. So definitely I feel that Neo is going to be spending some of it’s horsepower on resolution and downscale from there. And if PS5 was just a 4x a PS4, well then everyone would notice this massive drop off in quality, and that’s not great either.

Anyway, that’s actually what lead me to believe why we have a mid-gen upgrade. For MS they targeted 4K resolution, for Sony they targeted performance. Both of them will have a wait a long time afterwards to have a 4K next generation machine.

4K native....is that the buzz word of the month? We are nearly 3 years in this generation (PS4/XBox One) and we are just getting to the point where games are becoming 1080p native. We were promised 1080p FullHD native gaming when the PS3 came out yet very few games supported it....we are now 10 years down the line and just about getting there. 4K TV's in houses are not mainstream yet and won't be for at least another 2-3 years. Assuming the Neo is released in November this year, then I fully expect a backwards compatible PS5 to release in November 2019.
Marketing is marketing. I actually hold a similar stance to yourself, I don’t believe that 4K is a thing for X number of years as well. But it does appear as though I am wrong, 4Ks have come down significantly in price and the expectation go forward at least by 2017-2018 is that 4K is going to become the standard.

I don’t expect PS5 to come in 2019, just given my thoughts above.

We won't know if the Neo is mistake until it's been on the market for 6-12 months. As I've said before, I reckon the games will look considerably different. Microsoft has just annouced the Xbox One S, which is a mid-cycle upgrade.....HDR, 4K BR....those are extras over the basic Xbox One...and when the Scorpio releases in 2017, means that Microsoft have released 3 consoles between 2013-2017?
I don’t consider a Slim a different console. By that margin, though if a PS4 slim (rumoured) is coming Sony would be sitting at 4 consoles in < 10 years (should PS5 arrive in 2019; unlikely). But I’ll concede this is a good counter-point. If Neo games are significantly better looking than PS4, with a low price point, I’m pretty sure PS4 will EOL, and actually trigger the next generation for Sony. They need to be really careful here as the backlash could be significant.

I only expect Scorpio games to look like XBO games, but in 4K native resolution. And XBO games for the most part look like PS4 games but with less resolution. If Neo is bringing an all new graphical grade in terms of fidelity that’s something else entirely. Which is actually a marketing problem not a technical or value one.

The Neo is there to help sales of the PSVR IMHO. Personally I don't see an issue with it. Although ideally, it needs to be released this calendar year and be $399 at the most. The Neo will help prolong the life of the Playstation brand in its 4th iteration.

At the moment, PS4 sales are double that of the Xbox One, I expect One S's to sell well due to the 4K BR drive, but most people will wait until the cheaper $299 model is released, whenever that is. By then, I fully expect the Neo to be announced and release at $399 with the PS4 reducing in price to $299 to put the Xbox brand again. I still expect Playstation sales to be much higher WW than Xbox and we could see PS4/Neo combined sales of 70m+ by the time Scorpio releases on the frenzied. Xbox will probably be only around 30-35m at this point. And seeing as people are buying in each ecosystem with digital sales etc, it will be harder for consumers to move from PS to Xbox when Scorpio releases. This is my point. Sony are trying to tie up consumers early to the PS ecosystem and the Neo allows them to be the best, most powerful home console for a year until the Scorpio is released.
I’m generally not going to engage in the sales strategy discussion. I recognize that’s part of marketing, but it’s too blue ocean to really know how Sony or MS will respond with pricing.

I really just wanted to look at the products themselves and the messaging. I saw Scorpio as having a very straight forward message because it’s simply a check box, they can charge whatever they want here to match the Hi-Fi space. I think Sony will have a harder time marketing and pricing Neo. At $399 I don’t see any need for a slim nor do I see any need for a PS4.
 
There is a lot of time to get the price down/competitive for Scorpio assuming that is is launching next year holidays (which seems most likely at the moment).

I don't expect Microsoft to go beyond $499. If anything I expect them to hit $499 or maybe even $449 in the U.S. Ideally they could even get it to $400 which seems to be the sweetspot for a games console launch these days.
 
@iroboto, thanks for the responses. You've cleared a lot up for me.

I personally favour the route of 1080p with better framerates, cleaner/higher res textures, extras in general rather than trying to shoehorn a basic experience into a 4K resolution.

Although I still think a PS5 will release in late 2019 with a specification that will blow even the Scorpio out the water. With a mixture of a much better CPU as well as a much higher tFlop GPU, which should at that point be able to produce native 4K, but again, we may see just resolutions higher than 1080p upscaled to 4K.

One thing is for sure, it will be really interesting to see what Neo can do, I really hope it does release this year.
 
There is a lot of time to get the price down/competitive for Scorpio assuming that is is launching next year holidays (which seems most likely at the moment).

I don't expect Microsoft to go beyond $499. If anything I expect them to hit $499 or maybe even $449 in the U.S. Ideally they could even get it to $400 which seems to be the sweetspot for a games console launch these days.
That may be the sweet spot for standard console launches, but these aren't standard consoles.

Consoles sell at $500, but to core gamers. So launch at the premium price, then bring it down to the standard console prices as soon as they can.

Due to shorter cycles they may need to reduce the price quicker though.
I'd be all for the $400 mark, just don't know how feasible it is though.
 
There is a lot of time to get the price down/competitive for Scorpio assuming that is is launching next year holidays (which seems most likely at the moment).

I don't expect Microsoft to go beyond $499. If anything I expect them to hit $499 or maybe even $449 in the U.S. Ideally they could even get it to $400 which seems to be the sweetspot for a games console launch these days.
I think there's a big difference with ideal price points now, because they continue to support the lower cost model equally. It changes the model completely.

They both talked about it as a "high end version" of the PS4/XB1 so it wouldn't be surprising to see them around $499. A console launch that is a generation reset needs to sell extremely quickly to reach a critical mass, the entire industry depends on it, because it needs a user base to justify the game development cost. It's not the case with this mid-gen thing, it's more like a new high-end PC GPU coming out, while the low-end models still continue to be made as the most popular baseline power which games are targeting.

The problem of critical mass would probably be felt on how much effort developers will spend optimizing for that new target specs. If it sells very quickly it's the old SKU that might suffer, if it doesn't sell quickly it's the new SKU that won't be as good as it could be.

Also I wonder about the fixed expense of making new hardware, which is no longer amortized for an entire generation, they will sell half as much because it's always overlapping. Many hundreds of millions is a lot of money to amortize over only 3 years.
 
That may be the sweet spot for standard console launches, but these aren't standard consoles.
Very true. These consoles are for people who are willing to spend more for a better experience. For me, Microsoft's more ambitious specs are more appealing but there is literally nothing (in terms of market penetration prediction) to go on with regards to this new premium console market.
 
One caveat is that if this mid-gen model comes out too expensive (like the previously proposed 24GB to 32GB of GDDR5), it will not drop in price sufficiently to become a good low-end SKU in 3 or 4 years. Or it will have to be subsidized for it's entire existence.
 
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