PS4 Pro Speculation (PS4K NEO Kaio-Ken-Kutaragi-Kaz Neo-san)

[Prophecy2k]

I'm pretty confident they'll continue with a re-design of the current PS4 in order to capture the more price sensitive consumer. There's far more market incentive to do a slim PS4 than to even put out the PS4k in the first place.

If they put out a more expensive PS4(k) and phase out the cheaper original console then they would have artificially increased the cost of entry into their ecosystem. That could potentially be market suicide for the PS4, especially if MS do do a re-design of the XBox1 as a slim cheaper version.

Sony definitely wouldn't want that.

On the subject of why we may not have heard any rumours of a slimmed down PS4, we pretty much never do... well... certainly not from the same places we got the PS4k info. (i.e. dev sources). I think the first PS3 slim rumour came from someone in a manufacturing plant in Indonesia IIRC.

 

[orangpelupa]

think the first PS3 slim rumour came from someone in a manufacturing plant in Indonesia IIRC

Iirc, it was from Phillipines Grey market.

Yeah slim leaks are rare. The even got everybody says it's fake due how early they says "PS3 slim are coming" even before they got them in Stock.

 

[Xbat]

I wonder if this is all about keeping the price up, if you look at PS3 or Xbox 360 they never reached mainstream pricing.

Maybe they can't anymore and it cost them more or less the same when there is a big shrink to just up the power. This way there probably won't be a console under 199 dollars ever again but they can justify it by uping the TFlops.

 

[AlNom]

A die shrink is still a die shrink, all the "benefits" of die shrinks still apply.

There's also perhaps more refined (revisions which co-exist with older like in PC) elements...lower wattage...less leakage (within limitations) polished fabrication.

Already the PC presentation of unknown Polaris engineering sample was consumingsignificantly less and running cooler than the rival part. That's die shrink sauce.

At least with their PC offerings, they only turbo up to 2.5GHz from a base clock around 2.2GHz @28nm. They probably could have gone full steam ahead with the die shrink, but they probably wanted to remove the CPU as much as possible from the overall yield equation since we're dealing with two quads and no core redundancy.

I never believe that "it wasn't built for higher clocks"... it always was...and as long as it's tested and evaluated...it's desirable.

However architecture revisions can also boost thruput.

They probably weren't interested in doing any significant pipeline changes for a product that's meant to be fixing up dual-screen rendering performance while maintaining as much compatibility as possible. Keeping it the same through and through with just a clock bump would alleviate any current hiccoughs in engines targeting 1.6GHz Jaggywar.

 

[goonergaz]

On the subject of why we may not have heard any rumours of a slimmed down PS4, we pretty much never do... well... certainly not from the same places we got the PS4k info. (i.e. dev sources). I think the first PS3 slim rumour came from someone in a manufacturing plant in Indonesia IIRC.

IIRC wasn't the first picture at some market stall or something - everyone claiming it was obviously a fake!?

edit - one quick google later...

http://www.neowin.net/forum/topic/795994-playstation-3-slim-spotted-in-the-wild/?page=1

 

[iroboto]

I'm surprised that everyone who took the Jaguar and GPU at face value isn't slightly worried about cooling or TDP or the size of the Neo case. The PS4 is significantly less than Neo in every way imaginable (the difference between the two is much larger than the difference in performance between the XBO and PS4) Yet I'm surprised that cooling hasn't gone into this discussion. That die shrink must be pretty intense if we are to assume the existing PS4 case is a suitable candidate for Neo.

 

[Xbat]

It sounds like there's going to be a different design, if I remember correctly one of the articles stated that the devs have to be very hush hush about the way it looks.

 

[AlNom]

It'd probably be a good way to effectively communicate the difference to the mass market tbh.

 

[Prophecy2k]

The devs don't know how it looks at the moment, as the rumours said that the final retail design is different to the devkits/prototypes that devs may have seen.

 

[AlNom]

I wonder if this is all about keeping the price up, if you look at PS3 or Xbox 360 they never reached mainstream pricing.

Maybe they can't anymore and it cost them more or less the same when there is a big shrink to just up the power. This way there probably won't be a console under 199 dollars ever again but they can justify it by uping the TFlops.

It was mentioned earlier in the thread, but it would be curious to see if they salvage Neo production for a slim variant. It's a rather drastic relaxation in specification requirements if they can still reuse Neo rejects that only need to reach 1.6GHz/800MHz CPU/GPU, and still be fine with half the compute units.

So, suddenly the new node would be a lot more lucrative.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Maybe they can't anymore and it cost them more or less the same when there is a big shrink to just up the power. This way there probably won't be a console under 199 dollars ever again but they can justify it by uping the TFlops.

I don't think that's true. We're still looking at conventional electronics in these boxes with the same cost scaling. Shrink the main dies, have cheaper RAM, shrink the board, get a cheaper optical drive (probably rock bottom prices now for BRD), replace HDD with flash. Last gen was special. There wasn't much scope for shrinking dies due to proprietary designs - certainly not cost effectively - and some of the parts just reamin costly. I also wonder about the profitability on hardware. Maybe PS3 is still profitable and Sony don't want to lose that? Much cheaper at this point in its life probably won't make much money as there'll be lots of 2nd game sales etc. Maybe. Although with 360 dropping out of the race, Sony have the opportunity to pursue the budget console market without competition, so they may give it a shot yet. Perhaps an E3 announcement?

Regardless, I'm confident PS4 and XB1 have plenty of scope for further cost reductions thanks to using commodity parts. They'll benefit from all cost-reduction tech. Okay, not so much XB1 perhaps due to ESRAM, but the choice of ESRAM was to allow the design to be moved around fab facilities and not be tied to eDRAM expertise, so MS designed the processor with an eye on cost reductions.

 

[MrFox]

I was thinking it could be a part they are also going to use for the PS Now infrastructure. Adding PS4/PS4K support. I don't know what volume they would need for this. Games coming out on PSNow at launch would make it a much more interesting game-rental service.

 

[Xbat]

I don't think that's true. We're still looking at conventional electronics in these boxes with the same cost scaling. Shrink the main dies, have cheaper RAM, shrink the board, get a cheaper optical drive (probably rock bottom prices now for BRD), replace HDD with flash. Last gen was special. There wasn't much scope for shrinking dies due to proprietary designs - certainly not cost effectively - and some of the parts just reamin costly. I also wonder about the profitability on hardware. Maybe PS3 is still profitable and Sony don't want to lose that? Much cheaper at this point in its life probably won't make much money as there'll be lots of 2nd game sales etc. Maybe. Although with 360 dropping out of the race, Sony have the opportunity to pursue the budget console market without competition, so they may give it a shot yet. Perhaps an E3 announcement?

Regardless, I'm confident PS4 and XB1 have plenty of scope for further cost reductions thanks to using commodity parts. They'll benefit from all cost-reduction tech. Okay, not so much XB1 perhaps due to ESRAM, but the choice of ESRAM was to allow the design to be moved around fab facilities and not be tied to eDRAM expertise, so MS designed the processor with an eye on cost reductions.

Yeah probably,was just spit balling.I don't think flash storage is viable. It would need atleast 100GB, wont that be expensive?

 

[Metal_Spirit]

Doubts are very justified at this point.

Remember that Sony needs to incentivise people to buy the new platform, while at the same time maintaining the original PS4 userbase.

If a game is 'too much better' on PS4K, and the PS4 version runs like crap, people might buy into the new system but I would expect the backlash against Sony to be similar to what MS experienced at the beginning to this generation.

If a game runs great on PS4, without much of a difference from the Neo version, then what's the point of buying the bloody thing?

They will need to strike the right balance, right in the middle of these two outcomes, and I think it will be a tough job.

Although I now understand what Sony intends to do, and think it´s the best move under the circumstances, in no way this is going to make people happy!

Even if the current PS4 is in no way affected, with no games being made for the NEO, people will complain. Imagine one person playing a game with the Witcher's early problems, with drops in FPS to mid twenties, and saying the game is unplayable and it sucks, and another person playing it at a higher res with drops to mid forties saying it rocks. This will not make PS4 fans happy, it is not an equal treatment, and PS4 looses the "best place to play" title, even on Sony own games!

People will also be pissed for the double performance, same initial cost thing within the life expectancy period of it´s console.

Regardless of what Sony can say, nothing can change this reality, and many, many PS4 fans will be really pissed off. On my webpage some Sony fans are claiming they will abandon the platform altogether, and a survey I made is showing 51% will not buy the new console no matter what, 27% still wants more info, and only 22% is happy with the move and pretends to upgrade.

Sony will have a hard time selling this to fans. I expect a loud Boo (mixed with some clapping) to be heard when Sony anounces the console!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Even if the current PS4 is in no way affected, with no games being made for the NEO, people will complain. Imagine one person playing a game with the Witcher's early problems, with drops in FPS to mid twenties, and saying the game is unplayable and it sucks, and another person playing it at a higher res with drops to mid forties saying it rocks. This will not make PS4 fans happy, it is not an equal treatment, and PS4 looses the "best place to play" title, even on Sony own games!

How does it operate on mobile phones where a game plays better on a more expensive handset? Where's better to play Witcher 3 in relation to Sony's PR? XB1 won't be playing the game any better just because Neo trumps PS4. So the messaging is still the same IMO - PS4 is the best place to play, with the option for a different quality experience based on how much one's willing to spend, like every other product out there.

Regardless of what Sony can say, nothing can change this reality, and many, many PS4 fans will be really pissed off. On my webpage some Sony fans are claiming they will abandon the platform altogether, and a survey I made is showing 51% will not buy the new console no matter what, 27% still wants more info, and only 22% is happy with the move and pretends to upgrade.

Sony will have a hard time selling this to fans. I expect a loud Boo (mixed with some clapping) to be heard when Sony anounces the console!

I think those numbers quite comfortable. 20% of current PS4 owners are hardcore gamers wanting a better gaming experience than currently possible, for which the absence of Neo would mean they'd go unserved. Another 30% may will upgrade when the price and benefits are known, if it's suitable value. So we're looking at, say 30+% of PS4 owners being premium gamers and the rest mainstream. There won't be a switch to Neo leaving old PS4's gathering dust, nor a complete lack of Neo interest meaning it fails to deliver.

Depending on the execution. We could encounter a horrific bug-fest of incompatble games, or a lack of Neo benefits making it a pointless exercise, or some uniquely Sony mess up like the US getting all the Neo enhanced titles on PSN and EU only getting Neo enhanced titles months later on a smaller selection.

 

[goonergaz]

The problem with surveys is that a lot of people will hate Sony anyway. What's to say that 51% was not just 10 actual and the rest trolls? Why would people not understand that their PS4 would underperform a PS4k? That makes no sense. And Sony will just state 'PlayStation - the best place to play'.

Either way if what you say is true it's likely just a knee-jerk reaction, much like the initial XB always online fiasco (but clearly not as bad) - Sony will do their homework and until the announcement everything is guesswork...they may come out and say there is an upgrade option and then all of a sudden everyone might be happy - who knows.

Dang - pipped by some shifty geezer

 

[Xbat]

It's the internet of course people will moan, PC guys who have never owned a console will moan, Xbox owners will moan, PS4 base owners will moan, PS4 Neo owners will moan but most the moaning will come from people who can't afford the Neo. Like me

 

[Cjail]

Well I always enjoyed the long cycle without upgrades.
I kinda see a failure if the whole console model with PSNeo.
Maybe rightful and inevitable but still a failure.

 

[mpg1]

I understand the arguments for a slim version of the PS4. But I think if Sony are going through the trouble of introducing a newer model they want it to succeed every way possible. If there is to be cannibalizing of future PS4 sales Sony will want consumers to choose new version over older version.

For that reason I believe there will be no slim redesign of PS4.

 

[Egmon83]

Well I always enjoyed the long cycle without upgrades.
I kinda see a failure if the whole console model with PSNeo.
Maybe rightful and inevitable but still a failure?

If it is a success and works, it does not mean the traditional model was a failure; you could also see the new model as an improvement.