Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

Status
Not open for further replies.
I always dreamed about console with single/dual gpu option.
If someone is ok with 30 fps, buy single gpu option, if you want 60 fps in every game buy dual gpu option, simple :)

Probably doesn't happen because it's extra development and manufacturing problem for console makers but one can at least dream.
 
A next gen console must do much more than games, and probably while gaming too, so cpu and ram are not overkill
Lets say 2-3GB for plain os and stuff, at least 16GB dedicated to games (?) and a ton for concurrent apps like game dvr, tv dvr, cortanect ai for natural interaction and automation?
DX12 estabilished a trend over valorization of multicore cpu, dx13 can be more low level and more beneficial of many cores, and other cores are needed to run background apps.
We are giving for sure that next round will be again amd, and again soc, so probably zen considering that amd is killing the jaguar/puma line.
Soc have a limit in size for general reliability, zen cores are for sure bigger than jaguar, but more more powerfull, so how many is the right number? With just six you have a good permormance gain, but lose on parallelism and the possibility to make nice background things.
 
DieH@rd said:
If PS5 is 15TF/32GB console in 2019, I would be soooo happy. Heck, anything 8TF+ would be great.
Click to expand...

hm... PS4's GPU was roughly 2/3rds of the 350mm^2 die. So... ~230mm^2

So hypothetically, if Fiji is aboot 550mm^2 on 28nm, and then let's say... 60% scaling between nodes * 2, it'd be around 200mm^2 @ 10nm generation - Throw in some redundancy too, especially for that many units (64CUs, many ROPs, so transistor). This is all pretty ballpark, but that's basically 8TF @ 1GHz.

Of course, it remains to be seen how large a Zen core is, let alone 8 of them, assuming that's what Microsoft/Sony would pick since I don't know what the plan is for stuff after Puma.

Anyhoo.

I mean, it's worth keeping in mind that PS360 launch was 90nm, then there's 3 full node jumps* to PS4/XO.

At 10nm, we're essentially starting on the 2nd node jump.**

* 90 -> 65 ->45 -> 28/32 gen
**28 -> 14/16 gen ->10
 
Last edited:
10-15TF on consoles would be used for creation of absolutely insane 1080p games. But by 2020, 4K will be much more popular.

I wonder will sub-4K resolutions will be so controversial then as 900p/720p upscaling to 1080p is now. :D Most likely not. 1080p or 1440p upscale to 4K already looks great.

Additionally, a lot of userbase for PS5/X2 will most likely stick to 1080p displays, which mean if there is any game rendered at 4K, those gamers will get downsampling AA. :D If there is any justice, devs will take notice of such segment of gamers and offer toggle for 1080p rendering with higher framerates or asset/effect quality.
 
Hmm, maybe the 4th gen Xbox will be the 1080p++ console in 2018 and the PS5 the 4k console in 2019. Also, what about scaling. Does it have to be 4k or 1080p.. 2560x1440 should look great down sampled(to 1080p) or upscaled(to 4k).
 
Sony (i.e., the TV manufacturer) will most like push for 4k. ;)
 
ThePissartist said:
Sony (i.e., the TV manufacturer) will most like push for 4k. ;)
Click to expand...


Haven't they even talked about leaving TV's? Anyways I think they lose money and are not so relevant in that market lately.

4k are becoming common now, in 2020 will be talking at least about 8k and some other stupid technology
Click to expand...

Diminishing returns becomes a bit of a headwind the higher we go. Even now you see 4k is kind of facing that problem. I think people agree it's good just not that necessary over 1080p, which somewhat slows adoption, but I expect that adoption is eventually inevitable. PC's are a bit different cause your face is two feet away.
 
Rangers said:
Haven't they even talked about leaving TV's? Anyways I think they lose money and are not so relevant in that market lately.
Click to expand...

It actually started to make them money again, and they will not stop producing them. They will however reduce the number of new TV models they are making each year.

This is a good thing, because they make great TVs with industry leading "gaming" modes.
 
They still command respect in the professional industries, so there's likely a premium market they can secure. Dunno how big that is in revenue terms though.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
They still command respect in the professional industries, so there's likely a premium market they can secure. Dunno how big that is in revenue terms though.
Click to expand...

er... premium market, whenever it is, is the only one where revenues are. Be it in GPUs (professional segment), TVs (those horribly expensive 4k), professional cameras (the previous TVs are for beggars), etc...

Just look how much money apple asks for a phone...
 
The 4K,8K,16K and so on panels are great. Is the smartphone fashion(where a Nexus 4 feels faster than a Nexus 5).But in the end of the day normal TV channels in many countries don´t even hit proper 720p, so figure out...
 
Last edited:
I really hope that devs next gen just focus on 1080p gaming, and use the additional processing power for the rea meat and potatoes that actually enrich the gaming experience more considerably. 1080p is good enough for the vast majority sat in front of their living room screen (especially considering the vast swathes of media figures and consumers this gen who claim to be more than content with 720p and 900p XB1 games).

Give us prettier pixels that are more interactive. Don't waste power on another resolution jump when it's not needed.

On the other hand, if VR takes off I'm sure they will want to target resolutions higher than 1080p, and this could be what drives the HW choices at the end of the day.
 
Next gen we'll surely get foveated rendering? That'd make the world of difference. Unless it literally can never be fast enough.
 
This is more wishful thinking than a prediction, but I'm not the wildest of the bunch.:runaway:

Playstation 5
Launch: 2019
Price: $499

SoC:
  • AMD-based 10nm FinFET
  • CPU 16 cores x86
  • GPU 18.45 TF
  • balanced at 14
  • secret sauce
  • amiga blitter
Memory:
  • 48GB HBM2
  • 1.5TB/s
  • 6 stacks, 8Hi, 8Gb/die
Storage:
  • 1TB Hynix DC-SF (possibly more cost effective than 3D-BiCS or ReRAM in 2019?)
  • Good external storage support
  • 100GB bluray, 4k playback support
  • Still no online-DRM for disc versions, but discless playback when connected
  • New low-cost sku mid-gen without an ODD, which will fail
Misc:
  • 100% PS4 BC
  • Morpheus/Morpheus2 Backward and Forward compatible
  • New VR headset available at launch (not bundled)
  • The Last Guardian launch bundle announced at E3, then delayed, then cancelled
  • Will be perfectly silent or extremely noisy depending on which journalist makes the claim, neither of which will have any form of proper methodology. One will use the sound meter app on his iPhone
  • 12 months before launch: A dev will tell me to lower my expectations, so I will, but now is not the time
  • 6 months before launch: major downclock rumor, crippling flaw rumor, hidden power yet to be unlocked
  • after launch: another crippling flaw rumor, hidden power rumor that won't stop for years
  • I will whine that they should have waited for HBM3 that was just around the corner
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

A
Full transcript of John Carmack's QuakeCon 2005 Keynote
3 4 5
Replies
98
Views
32K
nemisis
N
Back
Top