I think this a logical explanation
All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
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I think this a logical explanation
The problem is there's nothing that suggests the EU as a whole is a larger console market than the USA, let alone 2-3X USA. All last gen it was about the same size as the USA (or North America). And that's an easy way to think about it. North America ~ EU
You can look at various companies fiscal statements to see this. Be they EA, Nintendo, etc. USA and EU are pretty similar size markets.
I looked up something for EA real quick
They do show "international" being larger, but they are including the whole world vs just NA.
Here is something from Nintendo
Here is Ubisoft for good measure
Sure, Sony is going to be pretty strong in Europe, but I dont see 2.5:1 over the USA and Japan combined.
You can look at various companies fiscal statements to see this. Be they EA, Nintendo, etc. USA and EU are pretty similar size markets.
I looked up something for EA real quick
They do show "international" being larger, but they are including the whole world vs just NA.
Here is something from Nintendo
Here is Ubisoft for good measure
Sure, Sony is going to be pretty strong in Europe, but I dont see 2.5:1 over the USA and Japan combined.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Lots of interesting things there.
A sizeable chunk of the increased revenue and thus profits comes to a change in exchange rates.
They are definitely trending in the correct direction at least. And it's notable that they still would have done well even without exchange rates boosting their income YoY.
PS4 continues to turn around their game division. Taking it from a loss of 162 million USD a year ago to a profit of 43 million USD for the quarter this year.
Most divisions showed positive performance compared to a year ago with the exception of Mobile Communications where they went from a profit of 124 million US to a loss of 27 million USD despite sales income increasing from 2.8 billion USD to 3.1 billion USD. Likely due to the erosion of margins as smartphone sales increasingly move from high end devices to budget oriented devices. As well Fianancial services declined YoY but still provided the largest operating income YoY.
Slightly worrying is that they continue to burn through cash. Minus 3.55 billion (34.3%) compared to a year ago but total assets only dropped by 2.28 billion (5.5%). Some, but not all of it went towards the repayment of debts which is a good thing.
Page 33 has an interesting regional breakdown of sales and revenue by region.
Japan's contribution shrunk by 3.8% to 5.063 billion USD
US' contribution grew by 20.9% to 3.023 billion USD
Europe's contribution grew by 19.5% to 3.883 billion USD
China's contribution grew by 8.0% to 1.317 billion USD
Asia-Pacific shrunk by 4.9% to 2.424 billion USD
Other Areas grew by 2.2% to 2.210 billion USD
Some things to note. For Sony, Japan is still really important. But its importance is in decline, due in part to lackluster performance of their console division.
China's growth is still vastly eclipsed by NA and Europe. Showing how difficult it is to tap into that region despite it being a larger market than NA or EU and possibly both combined.
Asia-Pacific may be seeing decline due to Sony pulling out of the PC business. Korea, arguably the largest Asia-Pacific market is heavily invested in PCs.
When companies bother to break out NA, EU, and rest of world. EU tends to be a smaller market than NA for many companies when it comes to electronics and gaming. The reasons tend to deal with things that can rapidly devolve into discussions that belong in the no-no hidden forum areas.
When you factor in all of Europe, however, it tends to be similar (sometimes higher, sometimes lower depending on company and product). This despite Europe having a larger population than NA.Sony tends to be an exception here as they tend to perform stronger in Europe than they do in the US as the above bit shows. Although keep in mine that includes far more than electronics and games. Financial services, music, motion pictures, etc. are also included in that. Also keep in mind that some countries (like Russia) that are included in their European region aren't in the EU. So, even for Sony, the EU may be a smaller market than NA.
Regards,
SB
djskribbles
Legend
It's not 2.5x, you're mixing shipped and sold numbers. PS3/PS4 sold 1036k in the US/JPN. Of that 3.5M shipped, probably only 2.7-3M were sales. So PS3/PS4 would collectively have to sell ~2:1 outside of the US/JPN. But, Sony probably did ship a bit extra in anticipation for TLoU and Destiny, plus to fill supply constrained countries. And It's not just Europe, it's also Australasia, the rest of Asia and Canada vs US/Japan.
Considering the PS3 has always heavily relied on PAL regions for sales, and that PS4 has been supply constrained in many PAL regions, it wouldn't surprise me if they shipped >1.5x as many PS3/PS4s outside of the US/JPN in the last quarter.
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Silent_Buddha
Legend
Yes, when considering how many countries PS4 is sold in compared to how many XBO is sold in, it shouldn't come as a surprise that rest of world sales ratios are going to be greater than NA sales ratios above and beyond the traditionally larger ratio that Sony's consoles command over Microsoft's consoles in the rest of the world.
Regards,
SB
Because people like Slim Jim are saying PS4 outsold XBO 3.5-1 or what have you. I am responding to them. Basically by checking if shipments reasonably equal sales last quarter, and they dont seem to.
Sales never seem to fully add up to shipments, there seems to always be some fudge there I guess (I am not entirely sure why), maybe. But it should be something on the order of +10% I would think, not a huge amount.
Its not, last gen
it was ~ 1.4 : 1 (USA&japan vs elsewhere)
why 2.5 this 3 months?
possible reasons like I said
1. japan aint going well for ps4
2. it appears sony focused on USA earlier (*) thus demand got satied quicker
(*) look at the first few NPD's vs sonys shipment numbers it was like 60% was going to USA, (even though I think they get less cash per PS4 sold their than EU), thus they weren't doing it for the cash but they wanted to destroy MS in its biggest market which effectively kills them this generation, i.e. they went for a knockout blow
for sony, NA just is a small market for their electronics (note this is all electronics thus consoles/cameras/tvs/phones)
Heres the slide I mentioned earlier
djskribbles
Legend
They both gave combined shipment numbers, 3.5M and 1.1M respectively. X360/PS3 numbers are a little more predictable. Considering how quickly last-gen sales dropped in the US, I think the PS3 is outselling/outshipping X360 as well. I'd say the PS3's shipment numbers are in the 450K-500K range, and X360 in the 400-450K range. That puts the PS4 shipment numbers at ~3M and XB1 at ~670K. However, 4.5:1 sales is unlikely. MS is probably much closer to their shipped numbers than Sony, because MS over-shipped last quarter, and Sony is probably supplying demand in parts of EUR. But still, I don't see why 3:1-3.5:1 WW is far-fetched. I could easily see PS4 sales ~2M and XB1 sales ~600K WW.
I looked over the Shipments:NPD ratio for PS4+PS3 (going to have to train myself to work in combined numbers now, since that is just what we get), in lieu of PS3 ending up at about 3.2:1 lifetime. It was kind of interesting.
It went something like:
Oct-Dec -7800k/2846k= ~2.7:1
Jan-March 3700k/1134k= ~3.3:1
Apr-June 3500k/779k= ~4.5:1
Overall 15000k/4759k=~3.15:1
So we see holiday, where they were extremely supply constrained, had a low ratio. 1st Q was about right. The last Q the ratio was very high. Life to date, the ratio is about right on track. We can also see good evidence that Apr-Jun is some type of outlier just by the numbers. Or you could look at it as necessary for equalizing out the holiday quarter and getting things back close to historic baseline.
I would expect the ratio to dip at least slightly this generation simply because Japanese consoles sales continue to decline.
Lets say we presume the "normal" ratio we can expect this gen will be 3:1, PS Shipments would have been about 2.3m this quarter based on 779K NPD sales times three. Still a good 2+:1 over Xbox but not as gaudy.
Another thing was, since we got that NPD leak, I went back and compared Amazon monthly software charts to the leak top 10's by platform SKU. I was pretty surprised, there was a lot of correlation, much more than I expected going in. I'll probably show more work so to speak on that later. One problem though I think is when Amazon runs a Amazon specific sale on a title, it mucks things up. But yeah, I was surprised. Basically it seems like you CAN look at the Amazon monthly charts and get some decent idea of what software is selling nationwide. But you have to cull out preorders and be aware of reduced prices juicing specific titles.
It went something like:
Oct-Dec -7800k/2846k= ~2.7:1
Jan-March 3700k/1134k= ~3.3:1
Apr-June 3500k/779k= ~4.5:1
Overall 15000k/4759k=~3.15:1
So we see holiday, where they were extremely supply constrained, had a low ratio. 1st Q was about right. The last Q the ratio was very high. Life to date, the ratio is about right on track. We can also see good evidence that Apr-Jun is some type of outlier just by the numbers. Or you could look at it as necessary for equalizing out the holiday quarter and getting things back close to historic baseline.
I would expect the ratio to dip at least slightly this generation simply because Japanese consoles sales continue to decline.
Lets say we presume the "normal" ratio we can expect this gen will be 3:1, PS Shipments would have been about 2.3m this quarter based on 779K NPD sales times three. Still a good 2+:1 over Xbox but not as gaudy.
Another thing was, since we got that NPD leak, I went back and compared Amazon monthly software charts to the leak top 10's by platform SKU. I was pretty surprised, there was a lot of correlation, much more than I expected going in. I'll probably show more work so to speak on that later. One problem though I think is when Amazon runs a Amazon specific sale on a title, it mucks things up. But yeah, I was surprised. Basically it seems like you CAN look at the Amazon monthly charts and get some decent idea of what software is selling nationwide. But you have to cull out preorders and be aware of reduced prices juicing specific titles.
I still think there's plenty of potential for growth in RoW. If Sony moves PS4 production to Brazil like MS to get the price down, and China adopts it, and India's another market with potential. So replacing Japan's numbers doesn't seem impossible. The difference will be that PS4 won't have the emerging markets to itself and will have to go toe-to-toe with XB1. It's quite possible that MS could handle Kinect better in these countries and make the must-have console (being wary not to pigeon-hole these cultures as only being interested in hop-about casual games!).
PS3's ratio will plummet like a rock after this year's holidays.
Nextgen is already capturing vast majority of big multiplatform game sales, and 3rd parties will soon start to either ignore oldgen ports or make them all using secondary teams. EA Sports will probably soon enter "legacy" state, just roster refreshes [didnt they already did that with last Fifa?].
As for Japan, its mediate fate will be unveiled on this year's TGS. If we this year don't get firm release dates for MGS V, FF15, new Resident Evil and few more japanese centric games [Gundam, Tekken 7, Lili Bergamo, EDF...], that console will do nothing in 2015. Japanese public will not purchase PS4 just because of large western catalogue. Konami also needs to get their heads form their assess. They cant live forever from only making MGS and PES. Capcom also, they need more games [DMC, Inamusha, Dino Crisis, Dragon's Dogma... their IP chest is HUUUUGE]. Sony also needs to pay AS MUCH AS IT NEEDED for Persona 5 PS4 port.
edit - German LTD numbers collected by market research company Media Control GfK:
LTD [through June]
PS4: 540,000
XB1: 170,000
PS3: 4,200,000
360: ~2,100,000
Software YTD:
1: Watchdogs (€18m)
Publisher Market Share:
1: Electronic Arts (16.7%)
2: Nintendo (13.2%)
3: Ubisoft (13.1%)
2013 sales:
PS4: 250,000
XB1: 100,000
2014 sales:
PS4: 290,000
XB1: 70,000
^ dat 4:1 lead in 2014
Nextgen is already capturing vast majority of big multiplatform game sales, and 3rd parties will soon start to either ignore oldgen ports or make them all using secondary teams. EA Sports will probably soon enter "legacy" state, just roster refreshes [didnt they already did that with last Fifa?].
As for Japan, its mediate fate will be unveiled on this year's TGS. If we this year don't get firm release dates for MGS V, FF15, new Resident Evil and few more japanese centric games [Gundam, Tekken 7, Lili Bergamo, EDF...], that console will do nothing in 2015. Japanese public will not purchase PS4 just because of large western catalogue. Konami also needs to get their heads form their assess. They cant live forever from only making MGS and PES. Capcom also, they need more games [DMC, Inamusha, Dino Crisis, Dragon's Dogma... their IP chest is HUUUUGE]. Sony also needs to pay AS MUCH AS IT NEEDED for Persona 5 PS4 port.
edit - German LTD numbers collected by market research company Media Control GfK:
LTD [through June]
PS4: 540,000
XB1: 170,000
PS3: 4,200,000
360: ~2,100,000
Software YTD:
1: Watchdogs (€18m)
Publisher Market Share:
1: Electronic Arts (16.7%)
2: Nintendo (13.2%)
3: Ubisoft (13.1%)
2013 sales:
PS4: 250,000
XB1: 100,000
2014 sales:
PS4: 290,000
XB1: 70,000
^ dat 4:1 lead in 2014
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D
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djskribbles
Legend
Damn, the PS4:XB1 ratio is trending towards double the PS3:X360 ratio. XB1 is performing very poorly in Germany. There are rarely ANY XB1 titles in the top 50.
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Current bestsellers at Amazon.co.uk, showing one anecdotal TLOU thirst:
According to Sam Raimi and Drukcman, it will be very faithful to the original game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtgZhL8nays
The protagonist instantly cures multiple GSW with a medikit?
D
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Once levelled up, yesThe protagonist instantly cures multiple GSW with a medikit?
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